S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

Spain discussed $366 billion bailout with Germany:


By Jan Strupczewski

BRUSSELS | Fri Jul 27, 2012 7:43am EDT

excerpt

Spain has for the first time conceded it might need a full EU/IMF bailout worth 300 billion euros ($366 billion) if its borrowing costs remain unsustainably high, a euro zone official said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/27/us-eurozone-spain-idUSBRE86Q0JS20120727

 

[notting]

Re: S&P 500

1.5% US 2qtr growth, slightly positive. But Starbucks aint selling too many warm milkshakes

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis

selling climaxes

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/trading_floor_blog.aspx?single=true&blogid=112179

excerpt

Now back to what happened last week, we had 107 selling climaxes. As you can see below, over the past year, surges over 100 have been rather bullish in the near term. Then considering the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is actually increasing (remember, we tend to see clusters of these near bottoms),......

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P Analysis

AEP reporting on China preparing fiscal boost:

China prepares vast stimulus as slump threatens Asia
China has ditched its reform strategy and prepared a vast stimulus package as the country’s soft-landing turns uncomfortably hard, with recession warnings flashing across East Asia.

China’s president, Hu Jintao, has told officials to brace for economic shocks from abroad, calling for “fiscal and monetary support and efforts to expand domestic demand”.
The city of Changsha has seized the moment, unveiling plans to spend $130bn (£82bn) on roads, satellite towns, and an industrial park – almost 150pc of its GDP.
Guizhou trumped this today, touting an eye-watering investment package of $470bn on transport, energy, infrastructure and eco-tourism over 10 years.
The Politburo has clearly decided to protect jobs whatever the other risks, steering the yuan down 1.3pc against the dollar this year to protect the wafer-thin margins of exporters.
Nomura said Beijing is preparing a 17pc VAT rebate on exports by Chinese steelmakers to divert excess output abroad, exporting China's "over-capacity crisis" to the rest of the world.

Link for the entire article:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...es-vast-stimulus-as-slump-threatens-Asia.html

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis - ES

By Danny Riley (MrTopStep - CME)

excerpt

According to most Fed surveys, nearly 90% of market participants believe the European Central Bank will purchase more sovereign debt and 80% said they expect the Federal Reserve will undertake additional quantitative easing. This is a big jump from June and brings us back to October of 2010, when over 90% of the traders polled thought the Fed would do a QE2 program. Here is the catch: Most people do not think a QE will be announced today. Many people think it is coming but that the program will not start until September, while others think it won’t be until the beginning of 2013.
The effect of the upcoming announcements has curtailed trading on the floor in most of the markets. While the commodity markets continue to be busy, the financials ”” bond, index and currency futures ”” were all very slow and the volumes showed that. At 2:00 CT the S&P only had a 8-handle range on volume of 1.4mil, that may sound like a lot but it’s not. When you subtract the 300k ESUs from Globex, only 1.1mil ESUs traded. That is well off the record 6.5mil contracts the e-mini S&P was doing just a few years ago. Part of this has to do with the public risk appetite and the other is the credit crisis. Volumes are down for a lot of reasons, but the main one is most people / traders just do not have the capital they used to.
As we go into today’s Fed decision, we all know the government needs to do more. As the Fed tried to expand growth (GDP), they are doing it the same way they have done in the past: pile up more debt and push out paying it back. With the economy so weak and the stock market going better, one has to question the overall rationale. Dennis Gartman believes “The biggest test facing the U.S. economy is that we shall do something truly stupid: raise taxes and cut spending aggressively, doing immeasurable damage to the economy in the process.”

http://www.mrtopstep.com/2012/08/de...Feed:+MTS-TOP+(MrTopStep+»+The+Opening+Print)

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis

Strategists Most Bearish on Equities since 1985
By Barry Ritholtz - August 1st, 2012, 6:46AM
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/08/strategists-most-bearish-on-equities-since-1985/

excerpt

...not just the Pimco boss; according to Merrill Lynch’s quant group, Wall Street’s “sell side strategists are now more bearish on equities than they were at any point in the last 27 years.” And we know as a whole, this group tends to get it wrong at key inflection points.

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis

The hated bull market

Posted in on July 31, 2012 - 4:14pm

http://www.optionstrategist.com/blog/2012/07/hated-bull-market

excerpt

The Total put-call ratio ”” which has a target of 1,440 (SPX) on its last buy signal ”” remains bullish as well. In fact, the Total ratio is considered “too pessimistic” when its 21-day moving average is above 90 (i.e., 90% of all options traded at puts), and it is still above that 90 level, even though the rally has been in progress for nearly two months. This one statistic shows just how little faith most traders ”” even hedge funds and institutions ”” have in this rally.

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P Analysis

Tk U Joules

Algo action in US this morn - usual suspects doing the headless chook thing about it.
But it turned what I thought was going to be a dull pre-FOMC morning into a nice one. (#Silver lining )

ECB tomorrow too - should be some fireworks.

 

[CanOz]

Re: S&P Analysis

The hated bull market

Posted in on July 31, 2012 - 4:14pm

http://www.optionstrategist.com/blog/2012/07/hated-bull-market

excerpt

Makes you kinda wonder...who is actually participating exactly?

Or big bull trap into October!

CanOz

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

speaking of milkshakes...

....the home orignator city of Mcdonalds, San Bernadino, US's 99th largest city, just filed for bankruptcy

hold the cheese, thanks

 

[Timmy]

Wed. had the FOMC.
Thurs. the ECB.
Tonight its the NFP (0830 US ET).

The party just doesn't stop.

Heard somewhere earlier -

Just 16 hours until the July jobs report -- and another 14.5 years until the final revision.

ES = Plenty of opportunity.

 

[Joules MM1]

The party just doesn't stop.

Heard somewhere earlier -


ES = Plenty of opportunity.

let's algo crazy?

one more slice em dice em night downtown.......

 

[Trembling Hand]

let's algo crazy?

Xackly

 

[Timmy]

let's algo crazy?

I like it!

 

[Joules MM1]

Orders Of Heavy Duty Class 8 Truck Sales Dive, And That's A Big Recession Warning Sign
Matthew Boesler | Aug. 6, 2012, 5:18 PM

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/morg...tor-us-economy-recession-2012-8#ixzz22oouifY7

excerpt

Coe concludes with a warning on the next few truck sales numbers: "Unless truck orders break out its current 12-18k monthly range YTD within the next 2-3 months, we would have to significantly increase the probability of a double-dip in 2013."

 

[tech/a]

People like myself are just keeping our current Trucks and Heavy equipment.
We arent buying new.
Many are doing exactly the same.
Means little in my view.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Horse drawn coach sales dive. Big sign of recession. 1900

Railway stock sales fall big sign of recession. 1950

etc etc

 

[CanOz]

People like myself are just keeping our current Trucks and Heavy equipment.
We arent buying new.
Many are doing exactly the same.
Means little in my view.

Let me know if you want a few concrete trucks....there's a few thousand parked idle here.

CanOz

 

[Joules MM1]

Best hour to trade the S&P 500
August 7, 2012, 9:16 AM

Bespoke Investment Group has broken down trading patterns in the S&P 500 hour by hour since the market’s summer low on June 1

Perhaps not surprisingly, the tone for each trading day has been set by the early action.

On average the index has seen the biggest gains in the first 30 minutes of trading. The S&P index has averaged a gain of 0.1% over that time frame since June 1.

The second best intraday trading period has been the last hour of trading, when the index has risen an average of 0.08%.

The hours between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. and between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. have been the weakest, both averaging declines of 0.03%.

On days when the index has closed higher, it’s averaged a gain of 0.5% in the first 30 minutes, with more modest gains of 0.13% in the final hour.

On days when it’s ended lower, it’s averaged a decline of 0.35% in the early trading, but has traded flat in the final hour.

So, assuming the axiom that “dumb money” (retail investors) trade at the open while “smart money” (institutional investors) trade at the close holds true, then during the summer rally, institutional money has been buying on a little on the up days, but not selling on the down ones, Bespoke argues.

-Tom Bemis

Posted: August 7, 2012 at 10:42 am

The Early Bird Gets the S&P 500 Worm

Bespoke Investment Group has examined trading patterns in the S&P 500 index since June 1, the market’s summer low, and broken down them hour by hour. The question is, does the early bird get the worm when it comes to trading the S&P 500?

The answer is yes. On average the index has seen the biggest gains in the first 30 minutes of trading, or an average gain of 0.1% since June 1 in early trading. The second best intraday gain, an average of 0.08%, came in the final hour of each day’s session.

Bespoke found that, on days when the index has closed higher, it averaged a gain of 0.5% in the first 30 minutes and a gain of less than 0.2% in the last hour of the session.

However, on days when the S&P 500 ended down, the average decline was about 0.3% in the early trading, while trading was flat in the final hour.

The weakest times for trading were mid morning and mid afternoon. On average, since June 1 the S&P 500 index has declined 0.03% between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. and between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m., the results showed.

So one could say that Bespoke’s results suggest to traders: don’t be late, don’t quit early and go ahead a take those coffee breaks.

However, on days when the S&P 500 ended down, the average decline was about 0.3% in the early trading, while trading was flat in the final hour.

The weakest times for trading were mid morning and mid afternoon. On average, since June 1 the S&P 500 index has declined 0.03% between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. and between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m., the results showed.

So one could say that Bespoke’s results suggest to traders: don’t be late, don’t quit early and go ahead a take those coffee breaks.

 

[Joules MM1]

tweet hustle

Walter Murphy ‏@waltergmurphy

AAII bulls > bears ending a 13-wk streak of bears > bulls - the longest streak since late '07 to early '08. 5-wk bull/bear ratio still o/s