IMHO the market isn't looking weak enough for a short here, but has me concerned enough to lighten up on longs. Currently I'm going to start looking for reasons to increase size again if we get down to the 1340-45 area on the S&P
Asian indexes are breaking down boys. Risk currencies not looking hot. Commodities a bit stinky.
Don't fight the squiggly lines boys.
Currently I'm going to start looking for reasons to increase size again if we get down to the 1340-45 area on the S&P
LOL! That was fast. Lowest print for the past 2 weeks, 4 days out from a high, and 3 consecutive down days - all suggest a decent 1-5 day upside edge from here. Would have liked a bit more volume on last night's move, but was at least good to see it rising some
Is it just me or does it feel like everyone is expecting this dip to be shallow?
Is the tail risk of Greece defaulting adquately priced in?
Is it just me or does it feel like everyone is expecting this dip to be shallow?
Is the tail risk of Greece defaulting adquately priced in?
Don't think that kind of an event can ever be properly priced in.
As for the dip being shallow or not, I generally find that it's better to keep buying the dips fairly early on really strong upmoves like the one we've had the past few months. If I sit back and wait for a larger correction, then I end up sitting on the sidelines way too often, only to finally step in right at the worst possible moment.
Don't think that kind of an event can ever be properly priced in.
As for the dip being shallow or not, I generally find that it's better to keep buying the dips fairly early on really strong upmoves like the one we've had the past few months. If I sit back and wait for a larger correction, then I end up sitting on the sidelines way too often, only to finally step in right at the worst possible moment.
Interesting view. I agree with buy early dips but I wonder if this dip can actually be considered "early" in a move that's occured over 3 months.
The Greece deadline may or may not be significant... but I have lightened up a fair bit over the past week. Needed to take some profit off the table and feed my children
But there's no denying that strong up move often happens when you (actually me) least expect.
...investors should probably keep in mind that the median pullback during the last three years has lasted 7 trading days and dropped the SPX a total of 5.6%. Were we to see a median pullback form this time around, it would suggest a bottom of about SPX 1301 sometime on Friday after the employment report.
Don't think that kind of an event can ever be properly priced in.
As for the dip being shallow or not, I generally find that it's better to keep buying the dips fairly early on really strong upmoves like the one we've had the past few months. If I sit back and wait for a larger correction, then I end up sitting on the sidelines way too often, only to finally step in right at the worst possible moment.
No one is at all concerned that Greece can blow tonight? Or is that so priced in that it might actually be a positive?
No one is at all concerned that Greece can blow tonight? Or is that so priced in that it might actually be a positive?
If it does there is one nice walk up going into it.
There are problems in Greece?
I bought a few weekly SPY 130 puts for 10c last night around London lunchtime. Otherwise, not exposed so not concerned. Let 'er rip!
Interesting view. I agree with buy early dips but I wonder if this dip can actually be considered "early" in a move that's occured over 3 months.
The Greece deadline may or may not be significant... but I have lightened up a fair bit over the past week. Needed to take some profit off the table and feed my children
But there's no denying that strong up move often happens when you (actually me) least expect.
On fire Frink, 40s was a great level!
Agree though on equity dips at the moment, same as was talked about previously in the thread, when its on a liquidity flush, dips tend to be much more shallow. Once the CBs let the mkts be, dips can become true corrections. That said, we have BoE and ECB tonight (and the smaller Canadian and NZ CBs meeting which while won't make a large market impact, can sometimes be interpreted as a lead to other antipodean and growth economy CB action). Good to see some top notch discussion from some of you 'old' trading heads!
Sorry skc I'll clarify a little, I'm referring to early in the context of buying a dip 4 days out from a high, not early in that I've been waiting 3 months to get set on a dip(if that's even what you were getting at?)
Thanks MRC, good to see you and TH floating around again
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