S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

[wayneL]

Re: S&P Analysis

Hey MRC long time no hear.

Agree it feels like it's going to be one of those grinding runs with dropping vols... sans any calamitous nonsense from the Bozos in Europe.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: S&P Analysis

Hey MRC long time no hear.

Agree it feels like it's going to be one of those grinding runs with dropping vols... sans any calamitous nonsense from the Bozos in Europe.

Hey buddy, it has been a long time! Been burrying my head, ironically learning the ins and outs of systematic trading.

It does indeed feel like that period from Sep 2010 to Feb 2011 where the S&P went nearly 300 points on the low vol grind.

With the liquidity flush from the ECB (3 yr LTRO), then the Fed kicking the baseline trajectory for hikes down the road from mid-2013 to late 2014 and now the BoE increasing asset purchases, you can't fight it. Add in strong EZ PMIs (good lead) and US data picking up and you have a real tide that will be hard to step in the way of.

Quick Q and you are prob just the man to ask, do you happen to know what are the major crop reports to watch for to avoid gap risk for the grains? (soybean oil, soybeans, corn and wheat). I ask because I'm testing a breakout model on these markets however I need to ensure I cut the trades on the day of the large grain reports or the gap risk (and particularly the assumption flip and reverses would have been filled) completely skews the testing results. However, with so many crop reports, I'm really not sure which are the major ones to be careful of.....

BTW - wasn't your blog on options different? I thought I remember it also being called 'The Naked Truth' but it being very comprehensive in the explanation of options strategies.....

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P Analysis

Great to see you back MRC & Co!

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: S&P Analysis

Great to see you back MRC & Co!

Hey Timmy, thx mate.

How is the trading going?

 

[barney]

Re: S&P Analysis

Great to see you back MRC & Co!

Ditto MRC ..... or as TH used to refer to you ... Mr. C

I notice TH has also popped his head in a couple of times recently so hopefully you two guys can find the time to post a bit more often ..... The quality of posts and the knowledge you guys used to add was invaluable and very much missed ..... Cheers.

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P Analysis

I notice TH has also popped his head in a couple of times recently so hopefully you two guys can find the time to post a bit more often ..... The quality of posts and the knowledge you guys used to add was invaluable and very much missed ..... Cheers.

And double ditto; well said barney.

How is the trading going?

It is a constant source of grounding in reality.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: S&P Analysis

You guys are too kind.

Mkts are like that lately hey Timmy, very hard to read over last few months although I think they are coming out of it now (then again, you never know with all the artificial price action from intervention). 'Price discovery' seemed to have gone out the window for a while there.

 

[wayneL]

Re: S&P Analysis

Quick Q and you are prob just the man to ask, do you happen to know what are the major crop reports to watch for to avoid gap risk for the grains? (soybean oil, soybeans, corn and wheat). I ask because I'm testing a breakout model on these markets however I need to ensure I cut the trades on the day of the large grain reports or the gap risk (and particularly the assumption flip and reverses would have been filled) completely skews the testing results. However, with so many crop reports, I'm really not sure which are the major ones to be careful of.....

I don't know of any quick and dirty lists of upcoming reports such as econoday.com etc (though that one does include energy reports which is handy) without being the client of a full service broker.

But http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_Subject/index.php should help with a bit of digging.

BTW - wasn't your blog on options different? I thought I remember it also being called 'The Naked Truth' but it being very comprehensive in the explanation of options strategies.....

The other blog was Sigma Options. It's still up but for various reasons too complicated to explain here, I started this new one... I still don't know why. ::::

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: S&P Analysis

I don't know of any quick and dirty lists of upcoming reports such as econoday.com etc (though that one does include energy reports which is handy) without being the client of a full service broker.

But http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_Subject/index.php should help with a bit of digging.



The other blog was Sigma Options. It's still up but for various reasons too complicated to explain here, I started this new one... I still don't know why. ::::

Do you still have a link for Sigma Options?

On the commods, cheers for the link, I'll have a look. I probably didn't explain myself properly. I was more just interested if there is a certain report every month or quarter etc which causes explosive gapping after it is released mid-session? Not a list, I'll be able to dig one out from a broker, but more just which report to actually avoid trading over to avoid a big gap.

 

[wayneL]

Re: S&P Analysis

Do you still have a link for Sigma Options?

On the commods, cheers for the link, I'll have a look. I probably didn't explain myself properly. I was more just interested if there is a certain report every month or quarter etc which causes explosive gapping after it is released mid-session? Not a list, I'll be able to dig one out from a broker, but more just which report to actually avoid trading over to avoid a big gap.

sigmaoptions.blogspot.com

The reports that cause explosive moves are ones pertaining to acerages planted, projected harvests, actual harvests, Petroleum stores etc. Should be able to find those at that link.

Also watch for times where weather events can put a cat amongst the pigeons, the so called suicide seasonals. Coffee in southern hemisphere winter being the classic example. Frost in Brazil = gapping coffee markets.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: S&P Analysis

Legend, thx.

Yeh seasonals fair enough, but can't add them into backtesting as all hindsight. Just want to ensure I take out trades on dates the major known reports were out.

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

As the S&P500 approaches its post-2009 highs again it feels like sentiment is getting a bit ahead. Some quite bullish stuff around, some of it is bordering on euphoric (which never ends well). Apparently even Roubini has turned bullish?

Being extra careful up here.

 

[blue0810]

Re: S&P 500

As the S&P500 approaches its post-2009 highs again it feels like sentiment is getting a bit ahead. Some quite bullish stuff around, some of it is bordering on euphoric (which never ends well). Apparently even Roubini has turned bullish?

Being extra careful up here.

View attachment 46012

I’m wondering if Marc Faber has been turned bullish too.

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

I’m wondering if Marc Faber has been turned bullish too.

His fanbois would never forgive him.

 

[skc]

Re: S&P 500

As the S&P500 approaches its post-2009 highs again it feels like sentiment is getting a bit ahead. Some quite bullish stuff around, some of it is bordering on euphoric (which never ends well). Apparently even Roubini has turned bullish?

Being extra careful up here.

View attachment 46012

I know we are talking about S&P 500 here, but the action on BHP/RIO on the profit numbers are telling imho.

 

[sinner]

Re: S&P 500

I’m wondering if Marc Faber has been turned bullish too.

Faber has always said stocks are the better asset class versus govbonds in the macro sense.

i.e. bonds are "worthless" stocks are at least somewhat tangible.

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

RTH selling last night (Aust. time), most aggressive I had seen for a while (first arrow)... but having said that the 'buy on dip' trade came good again (second arrow) ... slipping away quite hard in the overnight (Aust. time) now (you guessed it, third arrow).

No Fr. Ted today, chart will have to do. 1*1 P&F

 

[notting]

Re: S&P 500

I’m wondering if Marc Faber has been turned bullish too.

I heard him talking just the other day and he said that equities were going to be OK because money is going to be printed in the US and Euro. So he was basically saying things are still totolly rooted however stocks are a gasa man!artyman:

I know we are talking about S&P 500 here, but the action on BHP/RIO on the profit numbers are telling imho.

Yep. Add that to China which reported - less in, less out and higher inflatuation. Doesn't really leave them with a lever to pull!! - a communists worst nightmare!

I don't even know why people bother to worry about what figures come out of the Dragon Hole any way. I mean they are totally dependent on exports and that's basically Euroland and the States. If the US and Euroland are growing China's growing and vice versa. The Chinese aint gonna become big spending consumers with double door fridges, as much as the press would love to tell us they will - It's not in their DNA!!

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: S&P Analysis

If these dips come with elevated daily volume, they are probably going to be cracking buys me thinks.....

 

[Demiurgo]

Re: S&P Analysis

Did not still get to the target, thought that the 1st wave and the 5th one should be more os less equal in price.

Sorry if I don ´t wright well, I come from Spain (Europe).