S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

[sinner]

Re: S&P 500

just in addition to your post sinner in regards to the financials, following from bespoke highlighting which banks saw CDS spikes as the fraudclosure mess heated up last week:

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/10/15/bank-broker-default-risk.html

View attachment 39273

Could be an idea to keep an eye on BAC and WFC for any heads up to this particular mess(there seem to be quite a few of them at the moment) getting any worse

Thanks frinky, good stuff.

My general approach is to buy strength in uptrends and short weakness in downtrends. October has so far seen Industrials, Materials and Consumer Discretionary strength in the uptrend, if I wasn't flat equity this is where I'd be looking for longs in appropriate stocks/indices.

I like the default 65 day window for sector performance, using SPY as baseline. Sector performance looks a bit different when examining the ASX (XJO baseline), to be expected.



Waiting for down-trend to officially start before firing up the weakness scans. My guess is broad weakness in Financials, Utilities, Technology, but we will have to wait and see.

 

[bigdog]

Re: S&P 500

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-yea...tml?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

2 years after market low, the little guy is back

As the bull market turns 2, investors flood back into stocks, more confident but still wary

Dave Carpenter, AP Personal Finance Writer, On Tuesday March 8, 2011, 4:25 pm

CHICAGO (AP) -- As a historic bull market reaches its second birthday, everyday investors are piling back into stocks, finally ready for more risk and hoping the rally has further to go.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index has almost doubled since March 9, 2009, when it hit a 12-year low after the financial crisis. And the Dow Jones industrials are back above 12,000, about 2,000 points shy of their all-time high.

Little-guy investors appear to be on board. Since the beginning of the year, investors have put $24.2 billion into U.S. stock mutual funds, according to the Investment Company Institute. They withdrew $96.7 billion in 2010.

"It didn't feel right to be back in until now," says Richard Dukas, who heads a public relations firm in New York City. "I still don't want to put all my money in the market, but I believe we've come through the worst of it."

After the 2008 financial meltdown, Dukas and his wife converted their 401(k) retirement accounts into cash. They had been burned during the bubble in technology stocks a decade ago, and Dukas says he has been "extremely skittish" ever since.

Now Dukas, 48, says 85 percent of his portfolio is back in mutual funds, although he maintains a small cushion of cash.

More job security, strengthening retirement account balances and improvement in the overall U.S. economy are some of the factors that have brought everyday investors back to the market. A snapshot of what's happened:

-- The outlook of investors as measured by stock newsletters and market surveys has been extremely bullish for two or three months, says Mark Arbeter, chief technical strategist for S&P Equity Research.

-- Many workers have enjoyed seeing their 401(k) balances return to where they stood at the market's peak because they kept contributing during the down years. Many who have maintained their 401(k) accounts for a decade or longer still have some ground to make up because of their larger starting balances.

-- Americans who still have jobs are as secure as they've been in 14 years. That's because the number of planned layoffs has fallen to a low, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

The combination has boosted confidence and brought investors back to a rising market. The Dow closed Tuesday's trading at 12,214, up 87 percent from the 2009 low. It's still 14 percent below its all-time high in October 2007.

While the economy is improving, it will take a lot longer to erase the abject fear that average investors have felt about owning stocks the last two years, says Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist for Strategas Research Partners in New York.

One reason to set aside their reservations: They can't find a better place to stash their money. The bull market in bonds has ended, money-market accounts are returning 1 percent or less, and the average two-year CD earns no more than 1.5 percent.

As a result, many investors returning to the market are tiptoeing back in. They're buying what Trennert calls "stocks that look like bonds" -- dividend-paying blue chips that they hope will hedge their risk by guaranteeing at least a dividend payout.

For example, while stocks like Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble haven't gone up much since 2009, their yields -- 3.5 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively -- mean investors can still pocket something.

"What swayed me is being frustrated having my money parked where it's earning almost nothing," says Debra Condren, a New York business consultant, who has been easing back into the market over the last four months. She still has only 30 percent of her investments in stocks, compared with 80 to 85 percent before the crash.

Besides reinvesting gradually, Condren says she's much more vigilant about her stocks. She says she won't hesitate to sell if she doesn't like what she sees in the market or senses a shift based on world events.

Among professional money managers, the shift back into stocks has been more dramatic. A February survey by Bank of America-Merrill Lynch of 270 top investment managers found them more bullish about stocks than at any time in the past decade.

But history shows experts may not have better insight about what's next. Plus, individual investors notoriously follow the crowd. So is it a worrisome sign that they're flocking back?

"Investors have the tendency to make the wrong decisions behaviorally," says Christopher Geczy, academic director of the Wealth Management Initiative at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School.

When they pile in or out of stocks, he says, it often signals that the market is about to turn in the opposite direction. For instance, investors pumped nearly $91 billion into stock funds in 2007, just as the market was reaching its all-time peak.

Yet analysts point to signs that the run could keep going for quite a while, as long as the economy cooperates. Corporations are still sitting on billions of dollars in cash that they may ultimately put to work in the market.

The S&P 500 has an average gain of 17 percent in the third year of a presidential cycle. But the market also tends to grow much more slowly in the third year of a bull run.

Stock prices are still not high by historic standards. The S&P 500 index now trades at 15.6 times the operating earnings of its stocks over the past year, well under the historical average of 19.3.

There are plenty of investors still looking for an opportunity to get back in. Kenneth Kracmer, who owns a marketing firm in Dallas, is restless after cutting his stock allocation by half, to 30 percent.

But he worries about unemployment, state governments in financial distress and a market he sees as artificially high in view of all the challenging economic news.

Other investors are clearly on edge, too. Before Tuesday, the market had fallen nearly 3 percent in two and a half weeks because of concerns about unrest in the Middle East.

"I want to play it smart until there's a little bit of economic certainty," Kracmer says. "I don't want to get in just before another drop."

7242

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: S&P 500

Dave Carpenter, AP Personal Finance Writer, On Tuesday March 8, 2011, 4:25 pm

CHICAGO (AP) -- As a historic bull market reaches its second birthday, everyday investors are piling back into stocks, finally ready for more risk and hoping the rally has further to go.
"It didn't feel right to be back in until now," says Richard Dukas, who heads a public relations firm in New York City. "I still don't want to put all my money in the market, but I believe we've come through the worst of it."

Oh dear! P.R. firm??

Well my view on the situation now is the formation of a downside pennant. These formations can crystalise into a continuation of the downtrend but never a happening every time. Other outcomes could be a false breakdown out of the pennant then rising uptrend again, a false break to the upside and then breakdown again or the bottom is in with more promising economic news and optimism for the future.

I lean to the latter with one eye on any break up or down from the pennant.

 

[lenny]

Re: S&P 500

Does anyones have the charting software that allows you to overlay two stocks/two indices on the one chart.

If so could someone overlay the shanghai and the SP500 please?

Just trying to illistrate what looks to be the leading nature of the chinese market which has gone on to break Aug 9th lows which could happen to our market this week.

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

Does anyones have the charting software that allows you to overlay two stocks/two indices on the one chart.

If so could someone overlay the shanghai and the SP500 please?

Just trying to illistrate what looks to be the leading nature of the chinese market which has gone on to break Aug 9th lows which could happen to our market this week.

lenny, you could do this with the Bloomberg web site:



The bottom panel shows the Shanghai Composite and S&P500, past 6 months (you can specify longer or shorter time-frame).

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

Does anyones have the charting software that allows you to overlay two stocks/two indices on the one chart.

If so could someone overlay the shanghai and the SP500 please?

Just trying to illistrate what looks to be the leading nature of the chinese market which has gone on to break Aug 9th lows which could happen to our market this week.

Same thing, zoomed in:

 

[lenny]

Re: S&P 500

Thanks Timmy.

 

[lusk]

Re: S&P 500

S&P broken through support and now stopped at 1123.

May need to strap in for this descent.:fan

 

[Tint]

S&P Analysis

(1276,50)The S&P plunged already below the 200 hours line, now s/t resistance at 1278,30. While below 1281,00 on an hourly closing we expect a 1270 undershooting. Note however that the indicators are already close to the oversold area showing also potential positive reversals.

 

[baby_swallow]

Re: S&P Analysis

(1276,50)The S&P plunged already below the 200 hours line, now s/t resistance at 1278,30. While below 1281,00 on an hourly closing we expect a 1270 undershooting. Note however that the indicators are already close to the oversold area showing also potential positive reversals.

???????????
pls show some charts

 

[Tint]

01/16/2012 S&P Analysis

The S&P confirmed a negative closing on Friday managing however to recover from a low at 1272,70. The weekly closing was instead still well positive, even strong. The indicators of the daily chart are well positive but still close to the overbought area; those of the weekly one are also positive supporting higher levels. The indicators of the s/t charts are instead mixed to negative this morning supporting some consolidation. The correction we had on Friday formed however a new positive reversal suggesting a s/t target at 1303,40.
Possible a test of the resistance line at 1291,60; the holding of this line will cause another drop this time toward 1265!! Only an hourly closing above 1294,70 will resume the move up supporting a firm 1300 overshooting!

 

[Tint]

Re: S&P Analysis

???????????
pls show some charts

I don't know how(((

 

[Joe Blow]

Re: S&P Analysis

I don't know how(((

Hi Tint, please read this thread before posting further.

Many thanks!

 

[Tint]

Re: S&P Analysis

The S&P is confirming a strong move up that already favoured a 1300 overshooting. We expect a test of the s/t target at 1303,40 with a possible direct overshooting toward the 1315 area, where we expect decent resistance and where we want to go short this contract in case of an overshooting!! The indicators of the daily chart are well positive but starting entering the overbought area. Those of the s/t ones are also positive supporting higher levels. Possible correction should find support at 1297,50 before the s/t support line at 1293,50.
We remain on the sideline.

 

[baby_swallow]

Re: S&P Analysis

@Tint, What's "s/t"?
BTW, good work..

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P Analysis

@Tint, What's "s/t"?
BTW, good work..

short term?

 

[Tint]

Re: S&P Analysis

@Tint, What's "s/t"?
BTW, good work..

S/T - short term

 

[Tint]

Re: S&P Analysis

The S&P failed yesterday to confirm our s/t target despite the 1300 overshooting. While above 1286,30 we expect another test on the upside!
The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive but close to the overbought area. Those of the s/t ones are negative this morning supporting some consolidation/ correction. Only a break below 1286,30 will however favour lower levels with the 200 hours line at 1284,07 the first attraction. A break below 1286,30 could however also confirm a S_H_S formation!!
We remain on the sideline.

 

[baby_swallow]

Re: S&P Analysis

The S&P and, specially the DOW, has been creeping up since the Dec holidays
on low volume. It will be interesting to see what will happen in the next few weeks when the rest of the traders comes back from their long vacation.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: S&P Analysis

Feels like this mkt wants to continue to creep higher.