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Russian stock market opens March 24 2022 first time since start of war


The ruble-based MOEX Russia index erased early losses and closed 0.7% higher at 2,720 on Wednesday, trimming yesterday’s slump amid strong support from the energy sector.

Gains for energy producers were driven by a 3% surge for Rosneft after the giant posted a 45% jump in quarter-on-quarter profits.

Optimism was prevalent in the sector despite the slump in crude oil prices as the state-backed company proposed linking oil taxes to the Dubai oil grade instead of Brent.

Also, the Reserve Bank of India reported a 14-fold increase in Russian oil imports.

In the meantime, banks rebounded from morning losses and closed well above the flatline on average.

On the other hand, Mechel sank 3% amid poor output results and led the pace for metal producers.

PMI data pointed to another contraction in the Chinese manufacturing sector, lowering demand expectations from Russia’s main trade partner.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index pared early gains to close marginally above the flatline at 2,721 on Thursday, holding gains from the previous session as energy producers rallied to offset losses from banks, while investors digested a batch of macroeconomic data.

Bashneft stocks jumped 3.6% to lead the gains for oil producers as investors continue to take advantage of pledges of strong dividends from its board.

State-backed giant Rosneft also advanced, adding 0.7% after reporting a 45.5% increase in first-quarter net profits.

Lastly, Lukoil shares jumped 1.4% before its ex-dividend date tomorrow.

On the macro front, the latest PMI survey showed output growth strengthened amid a faster rise in new orders.

Another report from the economy ministry showed the Russian economy expanded 3.3% from a year earlier in April, the first expansion in 12 months.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index pared early losses to close flat at 2,719 on Friday, notching a 1.4% gain on the week as Lukoil stocks traded ex-dividend, offsetting an otherwise strong session for the Russian stock market.

Shares for the oil giant sank 5.7% as they were detached from dividends of a record-setting 2022, with a yield of 7.7% per yesterday’s closing price.

Still, Bashneft, Tatneft, and Surgut continued to rally as the discount on Urals oil prices to Brent narrowed to a post-invasion low of $20 per barrel, according to local sources.

At the same time, the rebound in base metal prices supported advances for Mechel and NorNickel.

Lastly, VTB stocks closed 5.4% higher, recovering from early losses even though the bank set the price for its secondary public offering below market price.

12 MONTH MOEX CHART

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DAILY MOEX CHART
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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index erased early gains and closed 0.9% lower at 2,694 on Monday, trimming gains from the prior week with sharp losses from banks and miners.

Mining stocks sank with a near 7% plunge for Polymetal and a 3% drop for Polyus, pressured by lower bullion prices in global benchmarks.

Financial companies also retreated, with VTB and Sberbank dropping 2.6% and 2%, respectively.

Meanwhile, oil stocks closed mixed as investors digested a batch of updates for the sector.

Oil and gas revenues for the Russian state sank by 36% year-on-year in May, pressured by continuously low demand from Asian economies that have not shunned direct business with Moscow. The value was RUB 44 billion below expectations from the Ministry of Finance, adding to fiscal concerns for the government.

On the other hand, companies received some support from Saudi Arabia’s voluntary output cut. Lukoil sank 3% after Friday’s dividend detachment, while Transneft dropped 3.2%.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index trimmed sharp morning losses but closed 0.5% lower at 2,681 on Tuesday with pressure from energy producers and metallurgists.

Oil companies stretched their drop as crude oil prices pared gains from Saudi Arabia’s voluntary output cut, while yesterday’s data of low energy revenues from the Russian state underscored poor sales from the sector.

Energy revenues were at RUB 570 billion for May, over one-third lower than the corresponding period of the previous year and RUB 44 billion below expectations from the Ministry of Finance, adding to fiscal concerns for the government.

In the meantime, steel producers also closed in the red with Severstal and NLMK dragging 1.4% and 0.9%, respectively.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.5% higher at 2,695 on Wednesday, erasing the losses from the previous session with support from banks while investors digested the government’s latest budget data.

Moscow posted a budget deficit of RUB 3.4 trillion in the first five months of the year, the highest on record for the period and compared to the RUB 1.6 trillion in the corresponding period of the previous year, underscoring the state's precarious fiscal situation amid low energy revenues and soaring war spending.

Hence, energy stocks underperformed with Bashneft shares down 1.4%.

Still, equities remained supported in the near term by demand for dividend payments.

Banks led the gains with a 2.3% jump for VTB after the bank posted strong results for the first four months of 2023, taking the sector to a near 40% surge year-to-date.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index continued its upward trend on Thursday, primarily driven by gains in the banking sector, while oil and gas producers remained relatively steady.

Moscow recorded a budget deficit of RUB 3.4 trillion in the first five months of the year, the highest ever for this period.

This marks a significant increase compared to the RUB 1.6 trillion deficit in the same period last year, highlighting the challenging fiscal situation due to low energy revenues and substantial war-related expenditures.

Investors are now eagerly anticipating the release of Sberbank's interim financial statements on Friday.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index pared early gains and closed at the flatline at 2,708 on Friday, broadly holding the advance from the prior session as losses for miners and metallurgists offset gains for oil companies and banks, while investors digested the Central Bank of Russia’s interest rate decision.

The CBR held borrowing costs unchanged for the sixth consecutive decision but paved the way for rate hikes in the incoming meetings as inflationary risks are higher than before.

Sberbank dropped a slight 0.2% flat after its May results were broadly in line with market expectations.

Still, other banks booked gains on the back of solid results from VTB posted earlier in the week.

In the meantime, gains for oil companies were led by a 4.3% surge for preferred Surgut shares following the announcement of strong 2022 results.

Also, Transneft added 0.6% as its board will announce dividends on Tuesday.

Shortly after the close, data from Rostat showed that consumer inflation rose to 2.5%.

MOEX 12 MONTH CHART

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MOEX DAILY CHART
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The MOEX was closed on Monday for a holiday.
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index gained 1.7% to 2,754 points on Tuesday, its highest since April 2022 as Russian markets reopened after a long weekend.

Energy producers advanced 1.7%, with Rosneft and Lukoil up more than 3% as oil prices erased Monday's 4% drop.

Additionally, metals and miners rose 1.6% boosted by higher prices of commodities including copper after China cut borrowing costs for the first time in 10 months to prop up its economic growth.

Gold also rose on a softer dollar, after a cooler-than-expected US CPI report.

In corporate news, VTB CEO Andrei Kostin told Reuters the state-owned lender may pull out of the running to acquire a stake in Yandex's Russian business.

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Russian government announced a RUB 300 billion windfall tax on the MOEX’s largest companies on profits since 2021 to make up for lower energy reveneus.

Still, oil companies booked sharp gains, with preferred Transneft shared adding nearly 7% after the company announced its dividend payout.

In the meantime, financial companies extended their rallies with TCS Group jumping 2.5%.

The Central Bank of Russia upwardly revised revenue forecasts for the sector to state that banks could make over RUB 2 trillion in profits this year.

Regarding their equities, the financial subindex of the Moscow Exchange is up by more than 40% year-to-date.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1.3% higher at 2,800 on Thursday, extending its strong momentum to the highest since levels prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with support from commodity-backed companies.

Oil producers led the gains, with a 3.5% jump for Surgut after the company posted strong corporate results.

Investors continued to digest mixed data for the sector, as soaring windfall taxes and low oil prices due to sanctions against Moscow weigh against the narrowing of the deficit between Urals and Brent oil.

In the meantime, steelmakers booked sharp gains on the back of a rate cut from the PBoC and expectations of stimulus for China’s property sector.

NLMK soared by 4.7% while Severstal added 2.6%.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed marginally above the flatline at 2,801 on Friday, enough to extend yesterday’s 14-month despite the hawkish outlook for the Central Bank of Russia.

Energy producers and gold miners led the gains for the session, with Polyus adding 2% and Bashneft advancing 1%, benefiting from expectations of higher export revenues amid fresh blows to the ruble.

On the other hand, equities were pressured as weekly price data showed that inflation continued to rise in the Russian economy halfway through June, strengthening bets that the CBR will start its tightening campaign in its next meeting.

In the meantime, Yandex shares tanked 2% after state-backed bank VTB said that it should be acquired by the Russian government at the 50% discount set for foreign-owned assets, following recent reports that holding companies are attempting to divest from the Russian business.

MOEX 12 Month Chart

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MOEX Daily Chart
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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index reversed early losses and closed 0.5% higher at 2,815 on Monday, extending the 14-month high from the prior session as sharp gains for metallurgists offset a muted session for other sectors.

The rally was triggered by a 6.6% surge for Severstal after its CEO told Interfax that the company’s scheduled repairs were done, so production is expected to rise for the second quarter and boost operating results.

Other steel producers tracked the gains with MMK and NLMK both adding 4.7%.

Meanwhile, oil and gas producers closed mixed as markets continued to assess energy demand from countries that are open to trade with Russia.

Low demand and significant premiums for oil tanker costs drove Russian energy revenues to plunge 36% year-on-year in May, denting essential income streams for the Russian state.

Consequently, the Kremlin mandated additional windfall taxes on energy giants to finance its invasion of Ukraine, further hurting their profitability.


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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.4% lower at 2,803 on Tuesday, easing from the fresh 14-month high touched in the prior session as losses for energy producers offset gains for banks and miners.

Transneft and Rosneft led the losses for oil companies to close 1.2% and 0.7% lower, respectively, as key costumer China spooked markets by refraining from announcing any stimulus measures besides PBoC rate cuts.

The developments also pressured steelmakers, with Severstal and MMK both dropping 1.8% despite the former’s CEO signal of stronger operating results yesterday.

In the meantime, Novatek shares slumped 1% after the company’s head said lower LNG prices are likely to bring a 30% decline in net profit this year.

On the other hand, gold miners booked solid gains.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.5% higher at 2,820 on Wednesday, the highest since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine amid strong support from steel producers and tech shares.

Metallurgists defied the poor momentum for ferrous metal prices worldwide and extended their gains following comments from Severstal’s leaders that capacity has picked up and operating results are expected to be stronger in the second quarter.

The company’s stock jumped by 2.5% in the session, while MMK added 2.6%.

On the other hand, energy shares were flat, as small gains for Surgut, and Gazprom offset losses for Tatneft and Rosneft.

Novatek closed slightly higher, but held most of yesterday’s losses after its leader said lower LNG prices are likely to bring a 30% decline in net profit this year.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed slightly below the flatline at 2,815 on Thursday, easing slightly from the 14-month high touched in the previous session as losses for natural gas and base metal producers offset subtle gains for other sectors.

Novatek shares sank 0.5% and Gazprom lost 0.3%, extending losses from the week as the former’s executive officer said lower LNG prices are likely to bring a 30% decline in net profit this year.

Concerns of low industrial demand in China also pressured selected metallurgists and miners in Moscow, with Raspadskaya, Rusal, and Mechel closing around 1% lower.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.75% lower at 2,795 on Friday, erasing gains from the week and retreating from the 14-month high touched on Wednesday as investors took profits and assessed the outlook for the Russian corporate sector.

Losses were scattered across all sectors of the exchange, pressured by uncertainty regarding companies’ willingness to pay dividends amid soaring taxes from Moscow and continued economic uncertainty from Russia’s top trading partner, China.

Low demand from Asia’s largest economy raised concerns that Russian energy revenues will contract even further, pressuring the state’s fiscal stability and sending Bashneft, Russneft, and Novatek shares to the negative territory.

While sanctions against Russia isolated Moscow’s equity market from global trends, hawkish central banks worldwide pressured gold prices and drew losses for Russian miners.

Seligdar and Rusal led the losses in the sector.


MOEX 12 MONTH CHART
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MOEX DAILY CHART
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The MOEX Russia index closed 1.4% lower at 2,757 on Monday, extending the retreat from the 16-month high from last week amid uncertainty over the country’s political and economic stability.

The mercenary group Wagner seized the key city of Rostov with surprising ease and marched to within 200 kilometers of Russia in an attempt to overthrow the country’s Ministry of Defense before its leader called off the mutiny.

Uncertainty remained over the Kremlin’s stability and the consequence of the developments over the invasion of Ukraine, foreign commodity sales, and therefore Russia’s fiscal health, pressuring Russian assets across the board.

Commodity-backed shares led the declines as political struggles threaten international trade dynamics, with energy and metal producers both dropping over 1% since Friday’s closing bell.

Banks also sank after the Ministry of Finance announced that lenders will not be exempted from taxes on excess profits.

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