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Russian stock market opens March 24 2022 first time since start of war


The MOEX Russia index pared early losses and closed 0.7% higher at 2,776 on Tuesday, trimming the decline since the weekend as markets eased their concerns of economic and political instability following the mutiny events over the weekend.

Energy companies booked gains after the Duma Energy Committee proposed to exclude some companies from the mandatory excess profits taxation program, while preferred Surgut shares rallied 2% on hopes of strong dividends.

Banks also booked gains, overcoming a slight loss for VTB following the publication of May results.

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The MOEX Russia index closed marginally above the flatline at 2,780 on Wednesday, holding yesterday's strong session as markets looked past the mutiny events from the weekend and focused on how corporate performances across different sectors could affect dividend payouts.

Surgut stocks soared by 2.5% and preferred Surgut shares extended their recent rally with a 1.5% advance, leading gains for oil companies in June as a strong earnings report and a weaker ruble continued to pin expectations of high dividend yields.

On the other hand, MTS pulled the index down with a 12% plunge as it was cleared of dividends.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.6% higher at 2,796 mark on Thursday, fully erasing losses from the weekend as markets continued to show no concern about Moscow’s power struggle or a potential reshuffle within the Kremlin.

Surgut shares extended their rally from recent sessions with preferred shares adding 2.4% and common shares advancing 1.8% on the back of hopes that the company will payout a strong dividend.

Rosneft and Lukoil hovered firmly in the green to back gains in the sector.

In the meantime, banks, miners, and metal producers drifted between small gains and losses.

Data following yesterday’s closing bell showed that Russia’s unemployment rate fell to another record low, underscoring the country’s labor force crisis.

In the meantime, strong monthly GDP figures raised the likelihood of a rate hike from the CBR in its upcoming meeting.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index pared early losses and closed flat at 2,797, recovering from Monday’s slump to close the unchanged as markets showed little concern over economic and political instability following the Wagner Group’s mutiny over the weekend.

Gains were led by steel producers, with NLMK, MMK, and Severstal adding between 1.7% and 0.8% as another contractionary PMI in China ramped up expectations of stimulus measures and a rebound in metal demand for the key importer.

Oil shares also closed in the green, with preferred Surgut shares adding 0.8% due to increasing bets of a strong dividend payout.

12 MONTH MOEX CHART

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DAILY MOEX CHART

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed below the flatline at 2,793 edging down following the flat performance last week as losses for energy producers and banks offset gains for miners and metallurgists.

Oil companies closed in the red after Russia announced it will cut both production and exports of oil by 500,000 barrels per day in August, joining the voluntary output cut from Saudi Arabia.

The move raised further concerns over Russia’s fiscal health as low oil prices worldwide and export embargoes from Western countries persistently hurt the state’s main revenue streams.

Bashneft sank 4%, while preferred and common Surgot shares lost 2.2% and 1.5%, respectively, to halt last week’s rally.

On the other hand, hopes of stimulus measures from China lifted steel producers’ stocks, with Severstal and NLMK jumping 3.6% and 1.7%, respectively.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index erased early losses and closed 0.5% higher at 2,808 on Tuesday, more than erasing the decrease from Monday and approaching the 16-month highs from late June amid strong performances for banks.

Financial companies rebounded from recent pressure with VTB adding 2.3% as markets continued to assess the sector’s outlook after profit surges in the first half.

Year-to-date, the financial sector of the Moscow Exchange is over 40% higher.

On the other hand, oil producers closed mixed as a 2.8% surge for Lukoil offset losses from other companies.

Preferred Bashneft shares sank 3.7%, extending yesterday’s underperformance as pessimism for the company’s profitability offset its upcoming dividend detachment tomorrow.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed marginally below the flatline at 2,805 on Wednesday, paring gains from the prior session as losses for the energy sector offset slight gains in other areas of the exchange.

Preferred Bashneft stocks continued to lead losses for energy producers with a 2.2% decline ahead of tomorrow’s dividend cutoff, as investors continued to show pessimism regarding the company’s payout.

Transneft and Rosneft also closed in the red, with fresh data from the Ministry of Finance showing that energy revenues for the Russian state missed the government’s target for another month, driving the ministry to start a fresh round of foreign currency sales.

Budget revenues from oil and gas plummeted by 47% from the previous year to RUB 3.38 trillion in the first half of 2023, as the oil embargo from the West and a slowing Chinese economy pressured demand for Russian energy.

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The ruble-based MOEX trimmed sharper gains from the morning but closed 0.5% higher at 2,819 on Thursday, the highest in 16 months, supported by gains for export-oriented industries and resisting the global downturn in equity markets due to Russia’s economic isolation from the international financial community.

The domestic currency sank nearly 10% to the dollar since the last week of June, raising revenue expectations for companies that have been impacted by Western sanctions and low demand from key importer China.

Miners and metallurgists led the gains, with Norilsk Nickel and Seligdar advancing 1.4% and 0.6%, respectively.

Energy producers also booked gains, with Novatek and Lukoil adding 2% and 0.8%, respectively.

In the meantime, preferred Bashneft stocks sank 15% as they were detached from dividends.


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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.5% higher at 2,832 on Friday, its highest since the suspension of equity trading in February-March of 2022 as investors digested fresh budget data to assess risks to the state’s fiscal stability.

Russia’s budget deficit remained at a record high for the first half of 2023 but narrowed significantly from the previous month as expenditure growth slowed and taxes on financial institutions supported a sharp increase in non-energy revenues.

The data spurred hopes that the Federal government could soon ease extraordinary taxation for blue chips traded in Moscow, supporting gains for energy producers.

The sector also benefited from a weak ruble this week, lifting their income after conversion to the domestic currency.

The MOEX Russia index is set to book losses on Monday as Rosneft, Tatneft, RusHydro, and PhosAgro, among others, will be detached from dividends.

12 MONTH MOEX CHART
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DAILY MOEX CHART

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index continued its upward trend for the third consecutive session on Monday, surpassing the 2,850 level for the first time since February 2022, supported by a weakened ruble and oil prices remaining near the two-month high reached on Friday.

Among the major players, LUKOIL stood out as one of the best performers, gaining 1%, followed by Sberbank and Gazprom, each experiencing an increase of 0.8%.

In terms of corporate news, companies such as Rosneft and Tatneft announced dividend detachments.

Globally, investors absorbed lower-than-expected inflation data from China while awaiting crucial CPI figures from the US to gain further insights into the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory.

Additionally, anticipation built for the commencement of the US corporate reporting season later in the week.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index continued its upward trend, surpassing the 2,860 level for the first time since February 2022, supported by a weakened ruble and oil prices remaining near the two-month high reached last week.

Financials have outperformed with over 40% year-to-date gains and oil producers have risen 34% this year.

In corporate news, Sberbank posted a net profit of 727.8 billion roubles in H1 and 138.8 billion roubles in June.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1.3% higher at 2,897 on Wednesday, its highest since the crash triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 as export-oriented industries continued to benefit from higher commodity prices and lower valuations for the ruble.

Oil companies booked sharp gains, with Surgut surging by over 2% while Lukoil and Rosneft both added 1.4%.

Natural gas suppliers also rallied, with Novatek jumping 2% and Gazprom rising by 1% after the former disclosed solid second-quarter production and sales volumes.

In the meantime, gains in miners' and metallurgists' shares were underpinned by higher prices for bullion and base metals.

In the meantime, CPI data released after the closing bell showed that Russian inflation rose to 3.2% in June.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.4% lower at 2,885 on Thursday, easing from the February-2022 high touched last session as markets continued to assess the outlook on Russia’s key export-heavy industries.

Oil producers led the losses, trimming gains from the prior session as data from key trading partner China showed a sharp contraction in both imports and exports.

Novatek, Transneft, Bashneft, and Gazprom closed in the red. The development also pressured metallurgists, with MMK and Mechel both sliding 1%.

On the data front, the latest CPI report showed that Russian inflation accelerated for a second month to 3.2% in June.

The central bank signaled rate hikes to bring inflation back to its 4% target by 2024, as it predicts that inflation will likely reach 4.5%-6.5% by the end of 2023.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index recovered from early losses and closed 0.6% higher at 2,903 on Friday, its highest since the crash triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, carried by sharp gains for miners and metallurgists.

Markets continued to assess the outlook for Russia’s essential export-oriented industry, weighing on demand from key consumer China and international commodity price benchmarks.

NLMK and Rusal led the gains in the session, both adding more than 2%.

In the meantime, energy shares closed in the green but underperformed the broader market, weighed by concerns of higher taxation after Moscow proposed narrowing the Urals to Brent discount by $5 per barrel to $20 for taxation purposes, increasing levies on oil exports.


12 Month MOEX Chart
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Daily MOEX Chart
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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.5% higher at 2,917 on Monday, its highest since the crash caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and extending the trend of positive sessions to start the week despite the negative external backdrop.

Rusal and key shareholder EN+ added 1.7% and 5.5%, respectively, after the European Aluminum Association requested the European Commission to not impose sanctions on the former.

Miners also booked gains, while Gazprom and Novatek closed sharply higher to support gas producers.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index extended early gains and closed 1.3% higher at 2,954 on Tuesday, extending its recent rally to another 17-month high as markets continued to gauge the geopolitical outlook for Russia and commodity benchmarks for their impact on corporate profitability.

Export-oriented industries led the gains as the selling pressure returned to the ruble, aiding foreign demand for Russian resources.

Gazprom shares led the gains among heavyweights with a 2.3% jump.

Additionally, oil companies extended last session’s advance as improving supply chains to Asian clients narrowed the Urals-Brent spread to its lowest since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Meanwhile, a favorable inflationary scenario in the US and Europe lifted precious metal prices, driving Polymetal and Polus shares to close 5.2% and 2.6% higher


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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.4% lower at 2,943 on Wednesday, trimming some gains from yesterday’s rally to ease off 17-month highs as markets continued to assess international commodity benchmarks and Russia’s geopolitical outlook.

Energy producers corrected from recent surges and led the losses in the session, with Gazprom trailing 1.1% while Transneft and Surgut cleared dividends and tanked 10.3% and 2.2%, respectively.

Also, financial companies booked slight losses but remained nearly 50% up year-to-date, on average.

In the meantime, investors positioned for the Central Bank of Russia’s interest rate decision on Friday, set to mark the start of a new tightening cycle.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1% lower at 2,917 on Thursday, extending the decline from the prior session and the 17-month high touched this week amid broad-based losses for key sectors of the main Russian stock exchange.

Energy producers led the declines amid heightened uncertainty in the period, as the narrowing gap between Urals and Brent crude and rising oil prices are set to lift Russian oil prices above the $60 per barrel price ceiling from the West, triggering uncertainty in its exports.

Surgut sank 2% and Lukoil lost 1.6%. In the meantime,

TCS Group plunged 4.4% after the US sanctioned its Tinkoff Bank.

On the policy front, the Central Bank of Russia is expected to kick off its tightening cycle tomorrow.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index pared early losses and closed 0.2% higher at 2,920 on Friday, notching a 0.7% increase on the week as capital controls helped investors look past warnings from the Central Bank of Russia.

The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100bps and signaled that more rate hikes are likely to be appropriate.

The decision was sharper than the wide range of expectations with a median of a 50bps increase, surprising markets to the hawkish side as the bank underscored the urgency to fight increasing inflationary risks due to the unbalanced payments and a labor force crisis.

Meanwhile, the State Duma adopted a law on excess profits for companies whose profits for 2021-2022 exceeded RUB 1 billion.

Still, oil-producing heavyweights booked solid gains and set the pace for other blue-chips, with Lukoil, Surgut, and Rosneft advancing more than 1.4%.

Banks also moved higher, with Sberbank shares increasing 0.5% and VTB jumping 1%.

12 Month MOEX Chart
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Daily MOEX Chart
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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index held early gains and closed. 0.5% higher at 2,937 on Monday, extending the trend of gains on Mondays as markets continued to assess commodity prices, geopolitical tensions, and higher interest rates from the CBR for Moscow’s corporate outlook.

Gains were spread among all sectors of the Russian bourse.

Financial companies advanced nearly 1% on average, led by a 2.2% rise for Bank Saint Petersburg.

Retailers also advanced, with Okey and Lenta both adding more than 8% and 3%, respectively.

While hovering firmly in the green, resource-backed stocks rose at a slower pace.

A 0.4% gain for Gazprom offset the 0.5% retreat for Rosneft, while Tatneft and Bashneft both advanced over 0.6%.

In the meantime, Severstal increased by 1% after posting a 9% increase in steel output.

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