Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Russian stock market opens March 24 2022 first time since start of war


The MOEX Russia index closed 1.6% higher at 2,547 on Monday, a one-year high, extending the sharp gain from the previous week amid evidence that the re-establishment of supply chains and commodity customers are underpinning growth in the Russian economy.

Data from the Ministry of Finance showed that revenues were higher than expenditures for the month of March, narrowing the Federal budget deficit for 2023 and raising hopes that Moscow may consolidate a healthier fiscal position for the remainder of the year.

The data follows the ministry’s announcement that it will sell foreign currency at a slower pace in April, reflecting higher energy revenues for the state and easing worries about soaring taxation for Russian blue-chip companies and a lower sovereign wealth fund.

Gains were widespread across all sectors, with Polymetal, TCS Group, and Yandex adding 4%.

Meanwhile, the GDP’s contraction slowed to 2.7% annually in the fourth quarter from a downwardly revised 3.5% decline in Q3.

1681167499903.png
 

The MOEX Russia index erased early gains and closed 0.5% down at 2,534 on Tuesday, after fresh current account data showed that Russian foreign energy sales contracted sharply in the first quarter of 2023.

Exports contracted by 35% from the corresponding period of the previous year to USD 100.8 billion in the period, reining hopes that energy revenues had consolidated and underscoring the fiscal for the Federal government.

Besides lower profitability for Russia’s heavyweight energy sector, the data raises concerns that Moscow may be forced to heavily tax MOEX blue chips to continue financing its war in Ukraine.

Losses were led by banks, with TCS Group dropping 3% as OFZ prices are set to drop sharply.

Also, Sberbank hovered slightly below the flatline after it published results for the first quarter.

The lender posted a net profit of RUB 350.2 billion in the period, in line with the levels prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
1681253372081.png
 

The MOEX Russia index closed 0.2% higher at 2,538 on Wednesday, trimming yesterday’s pullback as investors awaited domestic CPI data.

In the prior session, current account data showed that Russian exports contracted sharply in the first quarter of 2023.

Besides pointing to weaker revenues for the key raw material sectors of the Russian economy, low exports increase the sales of forex reserves by the Finance Ministry and raise extraordinary taxation measures for the finance of the war in Ukraine.

The event marked an unusual occurrence where Russian equity markets showed an immediate reaction to economic data, as capital controls limit the amount of selling for foreign investors.

Oil and gas producers booked gains on the corporate front with solid gains from Lukoil, Gazprom, and Novatek, offsetting small losses for banks and metallurgists.

1681338335036.png
 

The MOEX Russia index closed 0.2% higher at 2,544 on Thursday, remaining close to the one-year high touched this week as investors digested key economic data and monitored dividend announcements from blue chips traded in Moscow.

The annual inflation rate in Russia fell sharply to 3.5 percent in March of 2023, the lowest since July of 2020 and compared to 11 percent in the previous month, as the base year started to include the initial economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Still, the Russian central bank persistently warns that the inflation rate will trend higher later in the year due to a tight labor market and stable ruble depreciation.

Banks led the gains on the corporate front, erasing losses from the prior session with a 6.7% jump for the Bank of Saint Petersburg.

On the other hand, Sovcomflot fell 2.6%, extending yesterday’s selloff as investors continued to digest underwhelming dividend payments.

1681426649096.png
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index erased early losses and closed 0.4% higher at 2,554 on Friday, the highest in one year, to mark a 1.7% gain on the week with broad-based support from all major sectors of the Moscow Exchange.

Novatek jumped 2.2% amid the strong momentum for Russian gas producers, offsetting a mixed session for oil producers.

The rally for Urals oil prices raised concerns that oil cargoes could soon exceed the EU and G7’s $60/barrel price cap.

Scrutiny is expected to remain in the sector as banks in major consumer India have already warned that they would not process payments for oil bought above the limit, and the Kremlin stated it would not sell for any party wishing to abide by the ceiling.

Meanwhile, NorNickel added 2.6% after purchasing its own shares through a digital financial asset issuer as part of a new employee incentive scheme.

DAILY CHART

1681512292709.png


MOEX 12 MONTH CHART

1681512265463.png


1681512375011.png
 

The ruble-based Russia MOEX index extended early gains and closed 1.6% up at a one-year high of 2,596 on Monday, extending the 1.7% jump from the previous week as revised economic forecasts by the Economy Ministry spurred hopes of strong Russian growth.

Moscow expects the GDP to grow by 1.3% this year, mainly on stronger consumer demand, while inflation is expected to end 2023 at 5.3%.

Gains on the corporate front were carried by banks and miners. VTB shares jumped by 3.7%, while the TCS Group advanced 2.6% and Sberbank added 2.2%.

While ending in the green, oil producers underperformed as the rally for Urals oil prices continued to raise concerns that oil cargoes could soon exceed the EU and G7’s $60/barrel price cap.

Scrutiny is expected to remain in the sector as banks in major consumer India have already warned that they would not process payments for oil bought above the limit.

1681771531913.png
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index held early gains and closed 0.8% higher at 2,615 on Tuesday, the highest in one year, with strong support from miners, metallurgists, and banks, as investors continued to assess commodity demand from Russia’s main trading partners.

Strong growth figures for China underpinned advances for resource-backed companies traded in Moscow, with coal miner Mechel jumping 7.4% while steel maker NLMK gained 3.6%.

At the same time, the Bank of Saint Petersburg carried advances for the financial sector with a 3.5% jump after the Belgian Treasury unlocked $110 million of the bank’s frozen assets in Euroclear.

In the meantime, oil producers traded in the green but underperformed the broader index for a third session, as the recent increase in crude oil prices approached the $60/barrel price ceiling from the West and spurred uncertainty regarding the stability of future sales.

1681856724063.png
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index erased early gains to close 0.4% lower at 2,606 on Wednesday, halting a five-session win streak as losses for energy producers and miners offset gains for banks.

Transneft and Lukoil lost 1.4% and 1%, respectively, reflecting scrutiny in the sector as Russian oil prices hover relatively close to the $60/barrel price ceiling set by the European Union, sparking uncertainty over export stability.

Meanwhile, lower steel prices and demand concerns from China pressured steel producers to close firmly lower, with Severstal and Mechel both dropping more than 2%.

On the other hand, VTB added 0.8%, and preferred Sberbank shares rallied 1% to equal their ordinary counterpart.

1681940915613.png
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index erased early losses and closed 1.2% higher at 2,637 on Thursday, the highest in one year, supported by news of dividend payments from key players in the Russian energy sector.

Lukoil closed 4.9% higher after its board of directors recommended paying dividends of RUB 438 per share, yielding 9.2% at current share prices, for the record-setting 2022.

Also, Tatneft jumped 3% following news that its board will decide on dividends next Thursday.

On the other hand, TMK dragged down metallurgists with an 11.4% plunge after declaring it will not pay dividends for last year.

Since the Russian stock market crash caused by the war in Ukraine, strict capital controls and volatile price action drove investors to prioritize dividend payments for safe returns.

1682027449855.png
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed marginally above the flatline at 2,640 on Friday, the highest in one year and notching a 3.7% jump on the week with support from a batch of dividend announcements.

Lukoil shares closed flat and held the 5% advance from yesterday as investors continued to digest the dividend payout of RUB 438 per share for the record-setting 2022, yielding 9.2% at current share prices.

On the other hand, Rosneft closed 2% down after announcing that it aims to increase output by 2-4% annually over the next five years.

The developments are joined by scrutiny in the energy sector as higher oil prices drove Russian benchmarks dangerously close to the EU’s $60/barrel price ceiling, driving many Asian financial institutions to claim they will refuse to process payments.

In the meantime, Seligdar jumped 4.5% after announcing higher gold output in 2022, while MMK edged downwards after divulging operational results

MOEX 12 CHART
1682116478548.png


MOEX DAILY CHART

1682116552712.png


1682116626431.png
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed marginally below the flatline at 2,653 on Monday, easing slightly from the one-year high touched in the last session as losses for energy producers outweighed broad-based gains for other sectors.

Oil companies closed 0.2% down on average, led by a 1% pullback for Surgut ahead of dividend announcements this week.

Also, Yandex fell 0.4% after it bought back Uber’s $700 million stake in their joint taxi venture.

On the other hand, the Bank of Saint Petersburg added 1.4%, to extend its recent rally after Belgian authorities unfroze $110 million in assets that were held in Euroclear.

Also, Sberbank shares held the jump from the prior week at 14-month highs as shareholders approved the dividends of RUB 25 per share that were passed by its board.

1682375440332.png
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index hovered marginally below the flatline at the 2,630 mark on Tuesday, easing for a second session after closing the prior week at a one-year high as the pullback for raw material shares offset gains for banks.

Miners and metallurgists led the losses in the session, tracking the extended decline in base metal prices as evidence of low Chinese demand continued to mount.

Mechel sank by 1%, while Rusal and NorNickel both slid by 0.5%.

In the meantime, Surgut lost 1% and set the pace for oil producers, as investors continued to position themselves for dividend announcements from the company this week.

On the other hand, Bank Saint Petersburg extended its rally with a 4% jump.

Financial companies traded in Moscow now gained more than 30% year-to-date.

1682460713470.png
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed slightly below the flatline at 2,620 on Wednesday, easing for the third session since hitting a one-year high on Friday as gains for banks continued to offset the slight pullback for commodity-backed stocks.

Steel producers underperformed other metallurgists and miners as evidence of low demand in China pressured the outlook for the sector, with Severstal and MMK dropping 1.4% and 2%, respectively.

On the other hand, VTB added nearly 5% to extend the rally for banks, underscoring the disconnect between Russian and Western financial markets.

Among smaller caps, Rosseti and TGC-1 rallied 10% and 5%, respectively, after the Russian government said it will temporarily seize foreign-held shares of Unipro and Fortum in retaliation to EU asset seizures.

1682546170544.png
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1% higher at 2,646 on Thursday, the highest in over one year, amid strong support from banks and energy producers as investors digested a batch of corporate results.

Oil producers closed sharply higher, rebounding from losses early in the session after President Putin signed a decree to fix the discount of the Urals oil benchmark to Brent, facilitating the calculation of export duties and value-added taxes.

Also, Tatneft added 1.3% after announcing dividends for 2022 profits.

In the meantime, VTB set the pace for the bank rally in Moscow and soared by 6% after announcing a record-high profit for the first quarter of the year.

Sberbank and TCS Group followed with 2% jumps.

Tomorrow, the Central Bank of Russia is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 8.5%.

1682636457181.png
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.4% down at 2,635 on Friday, pulling back from the one-year high touched yesterday after the following hawkish signals from the Central Bank of Russia.

After holding its key rate at 7.5%, as expected, the central bank warned of pro-inflationary pressures due to an unbalanced current account and labor force crisis, pressuring Russian equities.

Oil producers extended losses after the central bank held its forecast for Urals prices despite President Putin’s order to narrow the official discount to Brent.

Meanwhile, steel producers remained under pressure amid worrying signs of low demand from China, the top importer of Russian steel.

On the other hand, banks extended their gains with BSP and Qiwi adding nearly 1%.

Yesterday, VTB soared by 8% after posting a record profit in the first quarter, underscoring the recovery of the Russian banking system since being excluded from the SWIFT system.


12 Month MOEX Chart

1682719949720.png



1682719975174.png


1682720011690.png
 

The ruble-based MOEX index was closed for holiday on Monday​

 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index extended early losses and plunged 2% to close at 2,580 on Tuesday, pulling back sharply from the one-year high touched last week as the sharp decline in oil prices threaten Russia’s fiscal stability.

Brent oil futures plummeted by nearly 5% in the session, pressuring major Russian oil producers to close more than 2% lower.

On top of that, Novatek lost 6% as it traded ex-dividend.

Besides hurting energy producers, lower oil prices reduce vital energy revenues for the Federal government, which led Moscow to mandate extraordinary tax measures on MOEX blue-chips last year so that the Russian invasion of Ukraine can be financed.

Miners and metallurgists lost 2.6% on average, while banks retreated 2%.

1683065194139.png
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index tumbled 1.8% to close at 2,532 on Wednesday, extending yesterday’s 2% slide and pulling back farther from the one-year high touched last week as the plunge in oil prices pressured Russia’s blue chips.

The main international oil benchmarks lost more than $7 per barrel this week, pressuring Surgut, Bashneft, and Tatneft to lose more than 3.8% each, while Rosneft lost 1.5%.

Besides hurting energy producers, lower oil prices sharply reduce the energy revenues for the Federal government, which is expected to trigger hefty one-time tax payments for Russian corporate giants to cover a widening budget deficit.

In the meantime, Mechel sank nearly 4% as poor demand from China continued to pressure shares for steel producers. .
1683154363559.png
 
Top