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Russian stock market opens March 24 2022 first time since start of war


The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.3% lower at 2,525 on Thursday, extending the selloff from this week as oil prices tested new lows and the Ministry of Finance released a batch of new budget data.

Oil and gas revenues for the state dropped 46% annually in April.

On top of that, the ministry downwardly revised forecasts of energy revenues for May and will sell RUB 40.4 billion of foreign exchange reserves to offset the income discrepancy expected for the period, double the amount that markets expected, and solidifying the perception that the recent dip in energy prices hurts the Federal Government’s fiscal health.

Therefore, bank shares also moved lower amid fears of extraordinary taxation.

On the other hand, gold prices tested record highs and lifted miners’ stocks.

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The MOEX Russia index closed 0.5% higher at 2,540 on Friday, trimming sharp losses from the week as news that Russia’s National Welfare Fund grew by nearly RUB 600 billion in April eased concerns of fiscal risks for the Federal government.

Still, recent evidence of poor energy revenues pressured the equity benchmark to close the week 3.7% lower.

Revenues from oil and gas sales sank 46% annually in April, while poor demand from China and currency debates with India drove the Ministry of Finance to downwardly revise income expectations for May.

Therefore, Moscow will sell RUB 40.4 billion of foreign exchange this month to offset the discrepancy in income expectations for the period, double what markets expected.

Rosneft and Lukoil both dropped over 3% on the week, setting the pace for oil producers.

In the meantime, bullion prices retreated from yearly highs after the release of tight labor data from the US, pressuring gold miners.

12 MONTH MOEX CHART

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index held early losses and closed 0.4% lower at 2,528 on Monday, erasing gains from the last session to approach the one-month low touched last week amid pessimism over the government’s fiscal health and the risk of fresh sanctions against the Russian’s economy.

Oil companies held their plunge from the last week amid continued pressure from President Putin’s new tax law for the sector, setting levies on a fixed discount to Brent instead of the true Urals oil price sold.

The move is expected to raise an extra RUB 600 billion this year as the Kremlin attempts to finance its budget deficit amid lower energy prices.

In the meantime, the European Commission proposed a fresh round of sanctions aimed at targeting Russian clients to prevent Moscow’s evasion of trade restrictions.

Among other sectors, persistent demand woes from China and a stronger ruble pressured steel producers traded in Moscow, with Mechel tanking nearly 2%.

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The MOEX was closed on Tuesday for Victory Day celebrations​

 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index gained traction through the session and closed 0.8% higher 2,550 on Wednesday, as surges across all sectors offset the 6.5% plunge for Sberbank as its shares were detached from dividends.

At the same time, commodity-backed stocks surged after trade data from China showed that business with Russia was considerably higher, suggesting that supply chains have somewhat started to adapt since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine resulted in sweeping sanctions from the West.

Oil producers rose 2.7% on average, with Bashneft and Transneft adding over 5%.

Also, growth for Chinese iron imports carried Mechel and NLMK to increase by 5% and 3%, respectively.

Other banks also advanced, with VTB and BSP adding 4%.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1.8% higher at 2,595 on Thursday, extending gains for the second session with solid support from banks and energy producers.

Sberbank shares added 2.5%, trimming last session’s near 7% loss as investors piled onto the stock's cheaper valuation after yesterday’s dividend cut-off.

In the meantime, Surgut, Bashneft, and Lukoil rose between 3.5% and 2% to set the pace for oil companies, supported by expectations of stronger demand from top importer China following the release of the latest OPEC report.

Gains were prevalent across all major sectors despite new data from the Finance Ministry showing that Russia’s budget deficit widened to a record high during the first four months of the year, as war spending lifted outflows and low energy prices limited revenues.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1.2% lower at 2,565 on Friday, paring the gains from the prior session as investors continued to monitor dividend announcements and the outlook for the Russian economy.

The newest figures from the Ministry of Finance showed that Russia’s budget deficit widened to a record-high RUB 3.4 trillion in the first four months of the year, as abundant spending to finance the country’s invasion of Ukraine coincided with plunging revenues from lower energy sales.

Besides underscoring the worrying outlook for Russia’s key energy sector, the data raised concerns about soaring taxation levels for MOEX blue chips, unsustainable borrowing through OFZs, and the consumption of the National Welfare Fund.

Sberbank shares dropped 0.5%, setting the pace for losses among other lenders after its net income contracted from the prior month in April.

Also, Yandex lost 0.2% after the central bank denied its request to carry out deposit services.

12 Month MOEX Chart
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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1.8% higher at 2,611 on Monday, the highest in two weeks and approaching the one-year high touched in April as softer-than-expected inflation figures released after Friday’s closing bell eased concerns that the Central Bank of Russia will be forced to tighten policy in the coming meetings.

Consumer prices rose by 2.3% annually in April, the least in over three years and below market estimates of 2.4%.

Still, the CBR’s newest monetary policy report echoed earlier statements that inflation is only low due to base year effects from the start of the country’s invasion of Ukraine, warning of accelerated price growth later in the year.

On the corporate front, gains were broad-based among the major sectors of the Moscow Exchange, with oil producers adding 2.4% on average to extend the sector’s highly volatile momentum

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.8% higher at 2,634 on Tuesday, extending the sharp increase from the prior session and approaching the one-year high touched in April with strong support from oil producers.

Bashneft and Rosneft added 1% and 0.5%, respectively, as data from the EIA showed that export volumes of Russian oil are at a post-invasion high, suggesting a larger market for Asian energy importers.

Also, Lukoil advanced 0.6% to rise for the sixth straight session ahead of its dividend cutoff at the start of June.

Dividends have been the main driving force over demand for Russian equities, as strict capital controls and the uncertain geopolitical backdrop drives investors to prioritize the predictable income from dividend payments.

Meanwhile, BSP stocks soared by 4.5% after the bank announced that it redeemed 13.7 million shares yesterday, offsetting losses for other lenders

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index erased its early morning advance and closed flat at 2,635 on Wednesday, holding gains from this week as the rally for oil producers lost traction and offset a strong session for banks.

Bashneft, Surgut, and Tatneft dropped more than 0.5%, trimming gains from yesterday after data from the EIA showed that the volume of Russian oil exports is at a post-Ukraine-invasion high.

The data pointed to solid demand from China and India and raised bets that the discount on Russian oil to international benchmarks may continue to narrow.

Still, foreign energy revenues continued to miss forecasts from the Ministry of Finance in April.

In the meantime, steel makers booked gains, supported by stronger export demand amid the slide for the ruble.

Also, VTB and TCS Group added 4% each to lead the financial sector.

On the data front, data from after the closing bell showed that the Russian economy contracted less than expected in the first quarter.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index reversed earlier gains to fall below the 2,630 level on Thursday, driven by a 12% loss in shares of oil and gas producer Surgutneftegaz after its board recommended a dividend of only 0.8 roubles per ordinary and preferred share, below market expectations of 3.0-4.2 rubles per share.

On the other hand, financials were among the top performers, pushing year-to-date gains to 33% following strong results from Bank Saint Petersburg and Sberbank. Bank Saint Petersburg earned 14.6 billion rubles in the first quarter of 2023 and Sberbank announced a record profit of 357.2 billion rubles.

Meanwhile, Russia confirmed the extension of the grain deal for another two months.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index reversed earlier gains to fall below the 2,630 level on Thursday, driven by a 12% loss in shares of oil and gas producer Surgutneftegaz after its board recommended a dividend of only 0.8 roubles per ordinary and preferred share, below market expectations of 3.0-4.2 rubles per share.

On the other hand, financials were among the top performers, pushing year-to-date gains to 33% following strong results from Bank Saint Petersburg and Sberbank. Bank Saint Petersburg earned 14.6 billion rubles in the first quarter of 2023 and Sberbank announced a record profit of 357.2 billion rubles.

Meanwhile, Russia confirmed the extension of the grain deal for another two months.

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Oil revenue down -

 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index fell 0.3% to 2,626 on Friday after the UK announced a ban on Russian diamonds, an industry that accounted for $4 billion in exports in 2021, as well as restrictions on imports of Russian-origin copper, aluminum, and nickel.

Additionally, the government introduced new individual designations targeting 86 people and companies associated with Russia's energy, metals, defense, transport, and financial sectors.

Among individual stocks, LRS shares surged 18% following the board of directors' approval of a recommendation to pay dividends of RUB 78 per ordinary share for 2022.

Conversely, shareholders of Surgut, Raspadskaya, and Akron decided not to distribute dividends.

For the week, the MOEX index is up 2.5%.

12 Month MOEX Chart
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MOEX Daily Chart
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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index traded slightly higher on Monday due to a 4% surge in tech stocks, driven by offers made to Yandex by wealthy individuals in Russia to purchase assets the company intends to sell within the country.

The combined value of these assets is around $14 billion.

Financials continued to advance, contributing to year-to-date gains of over 34%. Oil producers, particularly Transneft and Surgut, provided additional support.

However, gold producer Polymetal International PLC dropped by over 3% as the company expressed its commitment to pursue re-domiciliation.

Additionally, shares of Ashinsky MZ fell following news of a potential delisting.

Investors are anticipating dividend announcements from major companies like Rosneft and Gazprom this week.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index stabilized above 2,600 since mid-May, trading close to one-year highs reached in April, driven by dividends as strict capital controls and the uncertain geopolitical backdrop drives investors to prioritize the predictable income from dividend payments.

Financials have outperformed with over 30% year-to-date gains.

Oil producers have risen 20% this year and recent EIA data suggested solid demand from China and India and spurred bets that the discount on Russian oil to international benchmarks may continue to narrow.

Miners saw a more modest 16% increase, while gold producer Polymetal International PLC faced challenges due to its re-domiciliation plans.

The UK imposed a ban on Russian diamonds and restrictions on imports of Russian-origin copper, aluminum, and nickel. The government also introduced new designations targeting individuals and companies in Russia's energy, metals, defense, transport, and financial sectors

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index stabilized above 2,600 since mid-May, trading close to one-year highs reached in April, driven by dividends as strict capital controls and the uncertain geopolitical backdrop drives investors to prioritize the predictable income from dividend payments.

Financials have outperformed with over 30% year-to-date gains.

Oil producers have risen 20% this year and recent EIA data suggested solid demand from China and India and spurred bets that the discount on Russian oil to international benchmarks may continue to narrow.

Miners saw a more modest 16% increase, while gold producer Polymetal International PLC faced challenges due to its re-domiciliation plans.

The UK imposed a ban on Russian diamonds and restrictions on imports of Russian-origin copper, aluminum, and nickel. The government also introduced new designations targeting individuals and companies in Russia's energy, metals, defense, transport, and financial sectors.

1684967055705.png
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index stabilized above 2,600 since mid-May, trading close to one-year highs, driven by dividends as strict capital controls and the uncertain geopolitical backdrop drives investors to prioritize the predictable income from dividend payments.

Financials have outperformed with over 30% year-to-date gains.

Oil producers have risen 20% this year and recent EIA data suggested solid demand from China and India and spurred bets that the discount on Russian oil to international benchmarks may continue to narrow.

Miners saw a more modest 16% increase, while gold producer Polymetal International PLC faced challenges due to its re-domiciliation plans.

The UK imposed a ban on Russian diamonds and restrictions on imports of Russian-origin copper, aluminum, and nickel. The government also introduced new designations targeting individuals and companies in Russia's energy, metals, defense, transport, and financial sectors

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index advanced more than 2% on the week to 2682, the highest since April 2022 driven mainly by dividend news.

Companies such as Lukoil (+1.6%), Inter RAO (+1.1%), and PhosAgro (+0.9%) saw their stock prices rise after shareholders approved dividend payments.

Additionally, Sberbank's shares continued to rise, closing the dividend gap and reaching a yearly high.

On the other hand, Gazprom Neft's board of directors recommended dividend payments that were lower than market expectations and sank sharply before recovering at the end of the week.

Support for the Russian market also came from strong oil prices after the Saudi Arabian Energy Minister recommended caution to oil speculators betting on a decline.

MOEX 12 Month Chart

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Daily MOEX Chart

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index failed to hold gains from the morning and closed 1.2% lower at 2,700 on Tuesday, retreating from the thirteen-month high reached in the last session as the decline in energy prices pressured stocks in Moscow’s key oil and gas sectors.

Concerns around the US debt ceiling and low demand in Asia pressured oil prices to decline up to 4% in the session, while European natural gas prices continue to hover at two-year lows, driving Surgut to lose 3% while Gazprom, Rosneft, and Novatek fell 1% each.

In the meantime, Russian banking stocks erased yesterday’s rally and closed sharply in the red, with VTB, TCS Group, and Sberbank all dropping more than 2.5%.

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