Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Russian stock market opens March 24 2022 first time since start of war


Equities in Moscow ended Monday's session higher, with the ruble-based MOEX hovering around 2,260 points, driven by gains in the chemicals and electric utility sectors.

In the lack of any significant catalyst, investors await developments around the government initiative to introduce a windfall tax on big companies as the country's monthly revenues from oil and gas have dropped to their lowest levels since 2020.

On the policy side, Russia's central bank decided last week to hold its key interest rate at 7.5%.

Still, policymakers suggested that it may have to hike rates this year as a widening budget deficit, labor shortages, and a weaker rouble pose upside threats to inflation.

On the corporate side, NLMK and Tatneft were among the top gainers, up 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively.

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Equities in Moscow came under renewed selling pressure on Tuesday, with the ruble-based MOEX falling roughly 1.5% to around 2,230 points, the worst daily performance since December 15th, dragged by losses in the transport and electric utility sectors.

On the corporate side, NLMK and MMK were among the biggest losers, down 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Russian ruble also came under heavy selling, pressured by lower oil prices.

Metals & mining stocks fell 1.7% and financials were also retreating by over 1.5%. Also, oil and gas and electric utilities companies lost about 1%.

On the corporate side, MMK and MKB also were among the worst performers, down by 2.4% and 2.1% respectively.
 

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Equities in Moscow dropped for a second consecutive session on Wednesday, with the ruble-based MOEX falling more than 1.5% to below 2,200 points, dragged by the oil & gas and metals & mining sectors.

Risk appetite remained subdued by headlines suggesting that the European Union is discussing a 10th sanctions package against Russia.

The sanctions list may include Alfa-Bank, Rosbank, Tinkoff Bank, and the National Welfare Fund.

On the corporate side, Polymetal International and GDR TCS Group were among the biggest losers, down over 4% each.

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Equities in Moscow dropped for a third consecutive session on Thursday, with the ruble-based MOEX closing near a two-month low of 2,150 points, dragged by the heavyweight metals & mining sector.

Risk appetite remained subdued by headlines suggesting that the European Union is discussing a 10th sanctions package against Russia.

The sanctions list may include Alfa-Bank, Rosbank, Tinkoff Bank, and the National Welfare Fund.

On the corporate side, GDR X5 RetailGroup N.V.ORD and Surgut were among the biggest losers, down 2.8% and 1.3%, respectively.

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Equities in Moscow snapped a three-day losing streak on Friday, with the ruble-based MOEX bouncing back to around 2,175 points, driven by gains in the metals & mining sector.

Investors welcomed the remarks from the First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Chistyukhin about restoring the usual practice of paying dividends by financial organizations of the Russian Federation.

Still, risk appetite is likely to remain subdued amid growing concerns about a new wave of sanctions.

On the corporate side, GDR Globaltrans Inves ORD SHS and MMK were among the biggest gainers, up 1.1% and 1%, respectively.

Still, The MOEX lost nearly 4% this week.

MOEX 12 MONTH CHART
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The MOEX Russia index closed 1.3% higher at 2,212 on Tuesday, extending gains for a third straight session and trimming losses from the prior week with support from miners and banks.

The session underscored the disconnect between Russian equities and geopolitical risks due to protection from aggressive capital controls, as President Putin suspended a nuclear arms control treaty and delivered a fresh set of threats to the West.

Still, equities were supported by hopes of more growth-friendly changes to the budget and tax legislation tomorrow at the Federation Council’s meeting.

Banks led the gains, adding to an 8.5% rally year-to-date as the CBR said lenders’ profit reached RUB 258 billion in January.

Miners and metallurgists also rallied, with Polymetal, MMK, and Mechel adding over 4.5%.

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The MOEX Russia index cut early losses to close flat at 2,212 on Wednesday, holding gains from the last three sessions as slight gains for energy and telecoms offset losses for metallurgists and banks.

Investors digested remarks from the Federation Council’s meeting, highlighted by the approval of President Putin’s plan to suspend Russia’s participation in the latest nuclear arms treaty between Moscow and Washington.

Oil producers led the gains in the session following news that Russia plans to cut exports from western ports by 25% in March.

Rosneft and Lukoil closed firmly in the green, although pipeline operator Transneft was negatively impacted by the news.

In the meantime, banks led the losses to ease from their rallies in recent sessions. Russian equity markets will be closed on Thursday due to a holiday.

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Russian equity markets will be closed on Thursday due to a holiday.
 

The MOEX Russia index erased early gains and closed 0.2% lower at 2,208 on Friday, with investors selling positions on Russian equities amid the risk of heightened geopolitical conflict over the weekend as the Russian invasion of Ukraine hits the one-year mark.

Oil and gas producers were among the sharpest losers of the day, paring gains booked in the previous two sessions after Moscow announced it would cut oil exports from western ports by 25%.

In the meantime, miners sank nearly 1%.

On the other hand, banks booked sharp gains and hover nearly 10% higher year-to-date as lenders consolidate new operations after being excluded from the international financial environment.

On the week, the MOEX Russia index closed 1.9% higher.

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MOEX 12 MONTH CHART

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FRIDAYS TRADING


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The MOEX Russia index closed 1.5% higher at 2,240 on Monday, nearly paring losses from the prior week as investors reassumed positions that were sold on Friday to avoid geopolitical escalation over the weekend, as world leaders continued to discuss measures against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine completed one year of duration.

Oil producers booked sharp gains ahead of Russia’s planned cut in oil exports in March.

Supply of oil to Europe was also seen lower after Russia halted flows to Poland through the Druzhba pipeline.

Metallurgists and miners also closed sharply higher, with Kommersant stating that Chinese imports of coal have quintupled year-to-date.

On the other hand, financial stocks underperformed as the TCS Group slid over 4%.

The holding company’s Tinkoff Bank will be obliged to suspend trading in euros as it was hit by the EU’s 10th package of sanctions on Russia.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index extended early gains to close 0.5% higher at 2,253 on Tuesday, nearly recovering from the sharp losses in the previous week as Russian companies rebuild supply chains to recover from Western sanctions.

Oil shares jumped over 1% on average, trimming year-to-date losses to below 0.4% as Lukoil, Tatneft, and Surgut added between 1.6% and 3.7%.

Fresh data showed that seaborne Urals oil exports to China rose sharply in February amid lower freight costs and higher demand, limiting the impact of Western sanctions on the vital sector for Moscow.

Oil producers also booked gains following the export cuts from western ports set to start tomorrow.

Meanwhile, Yandex closed higher after the Russian Government approved a deal for the tech giant to buy out Uber's 29% stake from their joint venture MLU for a steep discount

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1.2% higher at 2,280 on Wednesday, extending its strong momentum from recent sessions to its highest in five months, as strong economic data suggested that Russian companies can rebuild supply chains to adapt to Western sanctions.

PMI data pointed to the sharpest expansion in the Russian manufacturing sector since 2017 in February, noting improved demand from domestic consumers.

Factory activity growth was also notable in China as the country recovers from strict Covid lockdowns, increasing export demand for Russian raw materials and driving investors to pile onto shares of miners and metallurgists traded in Moscow.

Oil stocks were also supported by the data, adding more than 1% on average to swing to a year-to-date gain.

Other data showed that seaborne Urals oil exports to China rose sharply in February amid lower freight costs and higher demand, limiting the impact of Western sanctions on the vital sector for Moscow.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index extended intra-day losses to close 1.1% lower at 2,254 on Thursday, pulling back from the index’s recent rally as heightened geopolitical conflict spurred the selling of Russian equities.

Russian reports said that a Ukrainian sabotage group staged an attack in the southern Bryansk region, raising fears of escalated Russian retaliation.

Banks led the losses and dropped more than 1% on average, with Qiwi holdings sliding 2%. Energy shares also retreated despite the improved outlook for the sector, as China’s economic rebound increases demand for Russian oil and raw materials

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.8% higher at 2,727 on Friday, nearly erasing losses from the prior session to end the week 2.9% higher as concerns of geopolitical escalation eased since the Kremlin accused Ukrainian forces of terrorism in the Bryansk region yesterday.

Banks led the gains in the session with a 1.3% jump from Sberbank. The lender’s shares are up by more than 20% year-to-date, supported by hopes that the Russian financial sector is consolidating since having been removed from the SWIFT system last year.

At the same time, TCS Group jumped 1% on news that it may consider moving away from Cyprus after being hit by EU sanctions at the start of the week.

Energy producers and miners also booked gains, as China’s economic rebound increased demand for Russian oil and raw materials.

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MOEX 12 Month Chart

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1% up at 2,294 on Monday, extending gains from the prior week to its highest since September with strong support from banks and energy producers.

Financial shares jumped by 2.2% on average and extended this year’s rally to jump 14.2% year-to-date, supported by hopes that the sector will consolidate after Russia’s major banks were excluded from the SWIFT payment system last year.

Sustained capital controls in the Russian equity market also supported shares, with the TCS Group closing marginally higher even though EU sanctions forced the group to cancel the payment on a Eurobond.

On the data front, the Ministry of Finance announced that Russia’s budget deficit widened to a record for the two first months of 2023, placing a further strain on Russia’s finances.

Still, the shortfall slowed from that of January.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia erased marginal losses from early trading to close marginally above the flatline at 2,296 on Tuesday, the highest in five months, as strength in the financial sector carried a muted session for other sectors.

Investors continued to assess the outlook of the economy and Russia’s fiscal health amid higher spending and lower energy revenues, as budget data showed that the Federal Government’s deficit widened to a record for the first two months of 2023.

Still, the Ministry of Finance expects energy sales to stabilize at a higher level in Q2 as Asian demand makes up for sanctions from Western states, supporting a rebound for oil producers since the start of the month.

In the meantime, data from the Moscow Exchange showed that total trading in the equity market rose by 34.3% year-on-year in February, indicating increased activity since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine last year.

The MOEX will be closed on Wednesday for a holiday.
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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index trimmed earlier losses but closed 0.2% lower at 2,287 on Thursday, easing from the five-month high touched this week with pressure from banks and energy producers, as trading resumed after Wednesday’s holiday.

Oil shares halted their rally from recent sessions as investors continued to mull import demand from China and India, while the Kremlin announced more production and shipment cuts from western ports for the month of March.

More recently, adverse weather conditions also hampered operations at important Pacific ports.

In the meantime, banks also retreated from recent highs with a 0.3% drop for Sberbank after the major lender released results under international reporting standards for the first time in a year, showing a 78.3% slide in profits in 2022 to RUB 270.5 billion.

The bank also announced profits for the first two months of 2023 were at RUB 225 billion, in Russian accounting standards, and pledged a sharp rebound for the year.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.6% lower at 2,276 on Friday, extending the slight retreat from the previous month amid persistent pressure from oil producers and banks.

Surgut and Tatneft both dropped nearly 1% as investors continued to assess the impact that oil production and export cuts may have on Urals oil prices and energy revenues for the Russian Federation.

In the meantime, banks closed mixed as sanctions isolated Russia’s financial sector from Western financial markets and prevented contagion from the rout in Europe and the United States.

Still, financial shares booked losses after the Moscow Exchange’s dividend recommendation underwhelmed investors, driving shares 5% lower.

On the data front, investors awaited Russia’s inflation rate for February to be released after the closing bell for hints on whether the CBR may resume its tightening campaign.

On the week, the benchmark index closed 0.6% higher.

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MOEX 12 MONTH CHART

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