Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Russian stock market opens March 24 2022 first time since start of war


The ruble-based MOEX Russia index extended early gains and closed 1.2% higher at 2,225 on Monday, extending sharp gains from the prior session to a two-month high with support from banks and metallurgists, as oil shares continued to underperform.

Stocks from the St. Petersburgh Exchange soared by 25% following news that it will add 25 yuan and Hong Kong dollar-denominated ETFs and 500 Hong Kong securities to trading.

Sberbank also booked gains, adding over 1% as investors awaited its December report.

Also, steelmaker Severstal advanced over 3% to extend the sector’s rally since the start of the year as the weaker ruble increased foreign demand.

On the data front, consumer prices in Russia rose by 11.9% annually in December, slowing for an eighth consecutive month and compared to forecasts of 12.2%, easing concerns that the central bank may raise interest rates in the coming meetings

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index held early losses and closed 1.3% lower at 2,197 on Tuesday, retreating from the two-month high touched last session as investors took profits after the release of Sberbank’s yearly results.

The state-backed giant recorded a net profit of RUB 125 billion in December, 40% higher than the corresponding period of the previous year and equivalating over 40% of the total year’s profit.

Regarding 2022, the bank’s net profit tanked by 76%, as broadly expected, pressured by sanctions from Western states that excluded the lender from the global SWIFT system.

Strong performances by banks in recent weeks drove other financial shares to rise over 6% this year on average, sharply outperforming other sectors in the MOEX.

On the other hand, oil and gas companies continued to tank, with Gazprom sliding 1.8% after preliminary current account data showed that Russian exports continued to decrease sharply from the peak in the second quarter of 2022.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia Index closed marginally lower at 2,196 on Wednesday, holding the decline from the last session as losses for energy producers offset gains for metallurgists and banks.

Moscow’s energy subindex now hovers more than 1% lower year-to-date, as Western sanctions increase the price of seaborne shipping services and negatively impacted demand from major importers China and India.

Lower oil revenues already caused the Kremlin to use $38 billion on its rain-day National Welfare Fund to cover its sharp budget deficit, an unprecedented move.

On the other hand, banks and metallurgists rebounded from yesterday’s slump and booked sharp gains, with Sberbank and Severstal both up 1%.

Meanwhile, the CBR sold RUB 3.2 billion worth of yuan to offset the lower purchase of rubles due to the decrease in Russian oil exports.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index held losses from early in the day and closed 1.2% lower at 2,165 on Thursday, extending declines for a third session with pressure from energy producers and banks.

Novatek and Transneft sank nearly 2% each to lead the laggards among oil and gas companies, as Russia’s economic isolation continues to squeeze demand for Russian energy.

The sector has largely underperformed the broader index in the past month and hovers 3% down year-to-date, as Western sanctions increase the price of seaborne shipping services and negatively impacted demand from major importers China and India.

Lower oil revenues already caused the Kremlin to use $38 billion on its rain-day National Welfare Fund to cover its sharp budget deficit, an unprecedented move.

In the meantime, Sberbank shares extended their decline to swing to weekly losses.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed marginally below the flatline at 2,167 on Friday, dropping for a fourth session and notching a 1.5% decline on the week as energy producers continued to underperform.

Oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft closed 0.7% down each, as Russia’s economic isolation limits the number of clients available for bidding and drove the discount in Urals oil to Brent to more than $30 per barrel.

At the same time, Gazprom sank over 1% as reports of lower supply to Europe through Ukraine coupled with low natural gas prices further limited the giant’s income.

The energy sector has largely underperformed its peers in the past month and hovers 3% down year-to-date, compared to the 0.6% gain for the broader index.

On the other hand, strong corporate results from Sberbank in December lifted the financial sector to trade 5% higher since the start of January.

12 MONTH MOEX CHART
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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index extended early gains to close 0.7% higher at 2,182 on Monday, trimming losses from the prior week with support from banks and tech shares, as investors monitored geopolitical risks after Russia pledged to escalate its war should the West arm Ukraine with Leopard tanks.

Tech giants Ozon and Yandex led the session’s gains by rising 3.2% and 2%, respectively.

Lenders were also sharply higher, with Sberbank up by 1.4%.

In the meantime, Gazprom added 0.6% as fresh data showed that LNG exports to China surged by 44% in 2022, softening the blow as flows to Europe continue to wain.

On the other hand, oil shares continued to underperform the broader index and traded mixed, with Bashneft dropping 0.3% while Rosneft and Lukoil closed in the green.

Russia’s economic isolation limits the number of clients available for bidding and drove the discount in Urals oil to Brent to more than $30 per barrel.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index erased early gains and closed 0.6% lower at 2,173 on Tuesday, once again pressured by losses for energy producers as investors monitored reports of looming military escalation through a renewed offensive front by Russian forces.

Gazprom sank 1.3% as reports of lower supply to Europe through Ukraine coupled with low natural gas prices further limited the giant’s income, despite signs of a pickup in demand for LNG in China.

Oil shares also slid due to the impact that Russia’s economic isolation has on oil revenues, as the discount of Urals oil compared to Brent remains above $30 per barrel.

The energy sector now hovers more than 3% down year-to-date, the only subindex of the Moscow Exchange in negative territory.

On the other hand, banks extended gains as strong results by Sberbank in December lifted hopes of the sectors' profitability and triggered a rally for its shares.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed below the flatline at 2,170 on Wednesday, extending losses for a second session with pressure from energy producers and banks, as Russia’s economic isolation continued to hurt growth prospects.

Financial companies halted a three-day rally and fell 0.5% on average.

Still, the sector remained trading at levels 6% higher year-to-date, due to strong year-end results from Sberbank and the addition of multiple Chinese and Hong Kong securities in the Saint Petersburgh Exchange.

Energy companies also booked losses, expanding the year-to-date decline to more than 3% due to the steep discount in Urals oil.

Besides the recent EU oil embargo and the G7’s price cap on seaborne crude exports, the groups will extend the restrictions to seaborne exports of diesel, jet fuel, and other refined oil products on February 5th.

On the other hand, miners booked sharp gains with a 4% jump for Polymetal after the release of strong fourth-quarter results.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index erased early gains to close slightly lower at 2,167 on Thursday, notching its third straight session in the red as losses for energy and fertilizer producers outweighed gains for miners and metallurgists.

Oil and natural gas producers extended their slide to trail nearly 4% year-to-date, sharply underperforming the 0.6% gain for the benchmark index.

Oil giant Rosneft closed the session 1% lower, while Gazprom sank 0.9% as natural gas prices declined further and export volumes to Europe continued to fall.

After causing a wide budget deficit in 2022, lower energy revenues for the federal government drove the Ministry of Finance to call for the end to liquidity restrictions on “anti-crisis” measures from its rainy day National Welfare Fund, the latest signal that Russia is struggling to finance its war with Ukraine.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index extended early gains to close 1% higher at 2,198 on Friday, halting three straight sessions of losses to also notch a 1% gain in the session with support from energy producers and metallurgists.

Oil producers rebounded from early-session losses and rallied in afternoon trade, triggered by a 6% jump for Surgut following news that it its board intends to "expand the company’s participation with other organizations”.

Gazprom and Rosneft followed with gains of 1% and 0.7%, respectively.

Still, the sector remains more than 2% down year-to-date as restrictions from the West hamper exports.

The G7 is expected to further tighten measures against Russian energy exports with a $100/barrel price cap on export services of diesel and a $45/barrel cap on discounted oil products.

In the meantime, steel producers carried gains for metallurgists, offsetting the decline for gold miners.

MOEX 12 MONTH CHART

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The MOEX Russia index extended early gains and closed 0.7% higher at 2,204 on Monday, extending the rally from the last session with strong support from miners, metallurgists, and telecoms.

Rostelecom shares led the advances among the blue chips and jumped 4.6% after a Kommersant report indicated the group could acquire major carrier MegaFon from USM Group.

In the meantime, gold miner Polus surged 5% while steel producers MMK and Severstal gained 3.2% and 2.1%, respectively, as investors continued to assess raw-material demand for major client China following their week-long New Year holidays.

On the other hand, energy shares underperformed other subindices and closed slightly above the flatline.

Gazprom stocks closed in the red as low TTF contract prices for Europe and lower flows through Ukraine continued to dent exports.

Oil shares traded mixed as investors assessed the impact of the G7’s price cap on Russian seaborne export of diesel and other fuels to be triggered next week

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index extended early gains and closed 1% higher at 2,226 on Tuesday, rising for a third straight session to its highest in over two months.

Financial shares led the gains, with Sberbank and Renaissance advancing more than 2% each to set the pace for lenders and insurance providers.

The sector closed the first month of the year nearly 10% higher, supported by Sberbank's strong year-end corporate results.

Also, metallurgists and miners extended their recent rallies and closed in the green, despite the drop in base metal and bullion prices.

Meanwhile, oil and gas producers continued to underperform the broad index and traded mixed.

Energy producers slid 2% in the month on average, as investors continued to assess the future for Russian energy exports ahead of the G7’s price cap on Russian seaborne export of diesel and other fuels to be triggered next week.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.2% higher at 2,230 on Wednesday, extending this week’s rally to the highest in over two months with support from metal producers and tech shares.

Steelmakers Severstal and Mechel jumped by 4.2% and 3%, respectively, as expectations of higher demand for base metals from China continued to support exports for the sector.

Tech companies also outperformed the broader index as investors await the release of Yandex’s corporate results.

On the other hand, oil and gas producers pared early gains to close in the red as investors continued to monitor developments surrounding the G7’s price cap on services of Russian diesel and fuel exports

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.6% higher at 2,243 on Thursday, gaining for the fifth session with support from miners and metal producers, while energy companies continued to underperform.

Gold miners led the gains, with Seligdar shares soaring nearly 7%.

At the same time, Polymetal jumped 5% with continued support from strong quarterly results published last week and the possibility that the gold miner could move to list itself in the Astana International Exchange to escape Western sanctions.

Further, steel giant Severstal closed 2.2% higher after posting Q4 results, while expectations of higher import demand in China also boosted the sector.

On the other hand, oil and gas producers underperformed and closed mixed as investors await the G7’s price cap on services linked to Russian diesel and fuel exports to be set tomorrow.

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Equities in Moscow increased for the sixth day in a row on Friday, with the ruble-based MOEX recovering from a weak opening to close at an over four-month peak of around 2,250 points, driven by gains in the oil and gas sector.

Giant Gazprom jumped more than 2% to lead the MOEX index after the Ministry of Finance proposed to withdraw Gazprom from the income tax for LNG exporters.

In other corporate news, Russian confectioner Krasny Oktyabr reported revenue results that surprised investors on the upside.

The MOEX rallied roughly 2.7% this week, recording a second consecutive weekly gain.

MOEX 12 MONTH CHART
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Equities in Moscow increased for the seventh consecutive session on Monday, with the ruble-based MOEX index closing at an over four-month high of 2,270 points, driven by gains in the chemicals sector.

On the data front, oil and gas revenues amounted to RUB 426 billion in January 2023, a decline of 46% from a year earlier, primarily due to a decrease in quotations for Urals oil and a drop in natural gas exports.

Among single stocks, NOVATEK and GDR Globaltrans Inves ORD were among the top performers, up roughly 4.8% and 4.3%, respectively.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index was little changed on Tuesday, pausing a seven-day winning streak, as losses across financials and metals & mining stocks offset gains in oil and gas and telecoms equities.

Investors continue to digest the latest data showing oil and gas revenues amounted to RUB 426 billion in January 2023, a decline of 46% from a year earlier, primarily due to a decrease in quotations for Urals oil and a drop in natural gas exports.

Among single stocks, Gazprom added more than 4% as oil prices advanced for a second day.

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Equities in Moscow dropped for a second consecutive session on Wednesday, with the ruble-based MOEX closing around 2,250 points, dragged by the chemicals sector.

Investors continued to follow developments about the government proposal to tax oil producers based on Brent crude prices rather than the currently used Urals benchmark after Western sanctions pressured the latter.

On top of that, the government is considering introducing a windfall tax on big companies as the country's monthly revenues from oil and gas have dropped to their lowest levels since 2020.

Among single stocks, Aeroflot and Polus were among the biggest laggards, down roughly 2.5% and 1.1%, respectively.

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Equities in Moscow closed Thursday's session on a high note, with the ruble-based MOEX climbing above 2,260 points, driven by gains in the metals & mining sector.

Investors continue to follow developments about the government proposal to tax oil producers based on Brent crude prices rather than the currently used Urals benchmark after Western sanctions pressured the latter.

On top of that, the government is considering introducing a windfall tax on big companies as the country's monthly revenues from oil and gas have dropped to their lowest levels since 2020.

Among single stocks, NLMK and Severstal were among the top gainers, each up almost 3%.

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Equities in Moscow ended virtually flat on Friday, with the ruble-based MOEX hovering around 2,260 points, as gains among electric utilities offset losses in transport.

Investors digested the Russian central bank's decision to hold its key interest rate at 7.5%.

Still, policymakers suggested that it may have to hike rates this year as a widening budget deficit, labor shortages, and a weaker rouble pose upside threats to inflation.

Meanwhile, the government is considering introducing a windfall tax on big companies as the country's monthly revenues from oil and gas have dropped to their lowest levels since 2020.

Among single stocks, NLMK rallied 2% to lead the MOEX, while Aeroflot was among the biggest laggards, down roughly 1.9%.

The MOEX rallied 0.7% this week, recording a third consecutive weekly gain.

MOEX 12 MONTH CHART
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