Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Russian stock market opens March 24 2022 first time since start of war


The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.5% lower at 2,119 on Tuesday, the lowest in eight weeks, and extending the slight drawdown in the prior session as the 12.3% plummet for energy giant Lukoil was enough to offset sharp gains in all other sectors.

Shares for Russia’s second-largest oil producer slid as the company traded ex-dividend after soaring oil prices during the year drove the company to distribute record-setting payouts.

In the meantime, MMK reversed early gains and closed 1.3% down after its board announced it will not pay dividends for 2022.

Still, other commodity-linked companies booked sharp gains in the session as the ruble’s decline is set to improve Russian energy and metal exports.

Oil giant Rosneft added 3%, while mining heavyweights Mechel and Polymetal jumped 7% and 4.5%, respectively.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.2% lower at 2,116 on Wednesday, extending sharp losses in the prior session to the lowest in two months as investors continued to show concerns for the Federal Government’s fiscal health amid the war and the increasingly worse macroeconomic outlook for Russia’s economy.

Mining shares closed 0.3% down, correcting from the rally in previous sessions as the ruble’s slide made Russian metal exports more affordable for the foreign market.

In the meantime, oil shares continued to extend losses since the start of the EU’s oil embargo and the G7’s price cap at the start of the month.

Lower revenues for the energy sector press the government’s finances as spending continues to rise to support Moscow’s war efforts.

Funds from the National Welfare Fund have already been withdrawn to support the looming budget deficit, while the CBR stated that it bought 90% of OFZ bonds in November auctions to carry government borrowing.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index cut early gains to close slightly above the flatline on Thursday, limiting its rebound from three consecutive sessions of losses that brought the index to eight-week lows as the bleak outlook of the Russian economy and the federal government’s finances continued to restrict any significant upturn.

Mining and metallurgical shares booked declines, pressured by lower export demand as the ruble erased some of the week’s losses.

Oil producers also closed in the red, extending their recent retreat as high interest rates worldwide, soaring Covid cases in major consumer China, and Western sanctions dent demand for Russian energy.

On the other hand, property developers booked gains and extended their rally this week after the Ministry of Finance submitted resolutions to loosen conditions on preferential mortgage programs.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed flat at 2,124 on Friday, notching a 0.4% retreat on the week as losses for oil shares offset gains for metallurgists as investors continued to assess the grim outlook for the Russian economy.

Oil producers Surgut and Transneft slid nearly 2% each to lead the losses in the sector as soaring Covid cases in top consumer China and Western sanctions dent demand for Russian energy.

Data by Reuters showed that exports of oil from Russian Baltic ports are expected to decline by 20% month-on-month in December amid the start of the EU’s oil embargo and the G7’s EUR 60 price ceiling.

Meanwhile, export-heavy Russian miners and metallurgists closed the session and the week in the green as the ruble’s slide benefited the outlook on foreign sales.

In the meantime, Gazprom closed the day with a 2.6% jump after shareholders approved the firm’s board dividend recommendations for oil subsidiary Gazprom Neft.

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12 MONTH MOEX CHART
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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.6% higher at 2,151 on Tuesday with support from miners and metallurgists while investors continued to monitor dividend news, as Russia’s clouded macroeconomic backdrop provides limited opportunities for profits in equities despite strict capital controls to limit selling pressure.

Norinickel, Severstal, and Mechel all added more than 1% in the session, benefiting from expectations of stronger base metal demand in top consumer China amid its Covid reopening.

Metal exporters were also supported by the ruble’s slide past 70 per USD, making its goods more appealing to the foreign market.

Banks also booked gains, extending yesterday’s rally triggered by signals of strong profits from major lender Sberbank.

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Vladimir Putin bans Russian oil exports to countries that imposed price cap over Ukraine war​


President Vladimir Putin has delivered Russia's long-awaited response to a Western price cap, signing off on a five-month ban on the supply of crude oil and oil products to nations that impose the cap.

The Group of Seven major powers, the European Union and Australia agreed this month to a $US60 ($89)-per-barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil effective from December 5 over Moscow's "special military operation" in Ukraine.

The decree, published on a government portal and the Kremlin website, was presented as a direct response to "actions that are unfriendly and contradictory to international law by the United States and foreign states and international organisations joining them".

"Deliveries of Russian oil and oil products to foreign entities and individuals are banned, on the condition that in the contracts for these supplies, the use of a maximum price fixing mechanism is directly or indirectly envisaged," the decree stated, referring specifically to the United States and other foreign states that have imposed the price cap.

The decree, which includes a clause that allows for Mr Putin to overrule the ban in special cases, stated: "This … comes into force on February 1, 2023, and applies until July 1, 2023."

Crude oil exports will be banned from February 1, but the date for the oil products ban will be determined by the Russian government and could be after February 1.

The price cap, unseen even in the times of the Cold War between the West and the Soviet Union, is aimed at crippling Russian state coffers and Moscow's military efforts in Ukraine.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Tuesday (local time) that Russia's budget deficit could be wider than the planned 2 per cent of GDP in 2023, with the oil price cap squeezing export income, an extra fiscal hurdle for Moscow as it spends heavily on its military campaign in Ukraine.

However, some analysts have said the cap will have little immediate impact on the oil revenues that Moscow is currently earning.
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.5% lower at 2,140 on Wednesday, halting four consecutive sessions in the green with broad pressure from energy producers, miners and metallurgists, and banks as increased economic isolation continued to deteriorate Russia’s macroeconomic backdrop.

Gazprom shares fell 1% after the gas giant published data showing a 46% yearly drop in gas exports during 2022, setting a gloomy precedent for 2023 as European gas prices hover below pre-war levels and are less likely to offset lower volumes.

Oil shares also booked losses after President Putin confirmed that no exports will be made to countries that abide by the G7’s price cap, while soaring Covid cases from major Russian importer China hampered demand further.

The MOEX is set to close the year 44% lower, leading losses for worldwide stock benchmarks.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.3% higher at 2,147 on Thursday after the 0.5% gain in the prior session, supported by broad rebounds from the energy, metallurgical, and banking sectors while investors digested a batch of economic data signaling further economic hardships for Russia.

Russia’s unemployment rate fell to a record-low 3.7% in November and wage growth rebounded in October, underscoring the central bank’s concerns that the Russian economy is going through a labor shortage due to the military mobilization for the war in Ukraine.

In the meantime, monthly GDP, retail sales, and industrial production contracted sharply.

On the corporate front, Mechel led the gains for metallurgists as base metal prices in China edged higher, while oil producers closed in the green after dropping in the prior session.

The MOEX Russia index is set to close the year 44% lower amid an investor exodus after Russia’s war in Ukraine.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed Friday at 2,154, plummeting 44% on the year as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and consequent sanctions by Western countries triggered an investor's exodus.

The sell-off came despite strict measures by the Moscow Exchange and the Central Bank of Russia to stop the losses, including closing the stock market for one month at the end of February, banning foreign investors from “unfriendly” countries, and prohibiting short selling.

In the meantime, Russian companies were excluded from foreign bourses and global equity indexes.

Oil giant Lukoil closed the year down 40% amid embargoes and sanctions against Russian oil that sent Urals benchmarks plunging.

Gazprom sank 54% despite posting record profits, as the Russian state heavily taxed its profits to finance its war chest.

Lastly, Sberbank fell 53% as the West excluded Russian banking from the Swift system, isolating the Russian economy.

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MOEX 12 CHART
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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.9% higher at 2,171 on Tuesday, extending gains for the third session as authorities extended further capital controls on Russian equities to limit selling pressure from the country’s deteriorating macroeconomic climate.

The Ministry of Finance announced on Friday that investors from “unfriendly” countries will only be able to sell financial instruments at half the current market price, with the government taking up to 10% of every transaction to finance its looming budget deficit.

Foreign investors have been locked out of the Russian equity market since February 25th.

Gains were distributed among all major sectors, with export-heavy industries benefiting from a drop in the ruble. Lukoil shares added more than 1.5%, while Gazprom rose by nearly 1%

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index erased early gains and closed 0.2% lower at 2,168 on Wednesday, halting three consecutive sessions of gains with persistent pressure from heavyweight energy producers.

Oil stocks continued to decline as soaring Covid infections in China pressed demand expectations and lowered crude oil benchmark prices, with Rosneft and Surgut dropping 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively.

China took the lead as the main buyer of Russian oil amid the start of the EU’s oil embargo and the G7’s price cap on oil exporting services, increasing Russia’s dependency on energy demand from China.

Consequently, the spread between Urals and Brent contracts continued to widen and hover at August highs.

Limiting losses, the Ministry of Finance announced last week that investors from “unfriendly” countries will only be able to sell financial instruments at half the current market price, with the government taking up to 10% of every transaction to finance its looming budget deficit.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.5% down at 2,156 on Thursday, extending losses from the prior session with further pressure from energy producers and electricity grid operators.

Oil stocks continued to decline as sanctions from the West increase Russia’s dependability on Chinese oil demand, recently hit by soaring Covid infections.

Consequently, Urals oil contracts hover at near two-year lows at the widest discount to Brent since August. Lukoil fell over 0.6% and Surgut lost 0.5%.

In the meantime, low natural gas contracts continued to pressure Gazprom, with shares dropping 0.7% on the session.


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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed flat at 2,156 on a thin-trading Friday due to the orthodox Christmas over the weekend, holding losses from the two prior sessions as investors continued to assess the impact of Russia’s economic isolation on the outlook of its economy.

Shares for oil and gas producers closed with minor gains and losses, failing to recover from this week’s rout as sanctions from the West increase Russia’s dependability on Chinese oil demand, recently hit by soaring Covid infections.

Still, the broader index closed the week marginally higher, supported by a rally on Monday due to the extension to capital controls.

The Ministry of Finance announced that investors from “unfriendly” countries will only be able to sell financial instruments at half their current market price, with the government taking up to 10% of every transaction to finance its looming budget deficit.

Foreign investors have been locked out of the Russian equity market since February 25th.

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MOEX 12 CHART
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The ruble-based MOEX Russia held most of its early gains and closed 0.3% higher at 2,164 on Monday, halting three consecutive sessions of declines amid marginally higher trading volumes as investors are back from Christmas festivities in Russia.

Banks led the gains, with TCS Group and Sberbank adding 2% and 1%, respectively.

Miners and metal producers also rose sharply, with Seligdar, Mechel, and Alrosa closing in the green.

Further, shares from coal producers rebounded slightly from Friday’s slump due to Bloomberg's report that the federal government proposed a one-time tax payment for coal and fertilizer producers.

In the meantime, oil shares continued to underperform and closed with marginal losses, as energy sanctions from the West and soaring taxes for energy exporters continue to threaten the sector’s outlook.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.3% lower at 2,158 on Tuesday, paring gains from the prior session with renewed pressure from raw-material-linked sectors as investors continued to assess commodity markets and the extent that Russia’s economic isolation can impact growth this year.

Oil shares led the losses with Transneft, Surgut, and Lukoil dropping nearly 1% each.

Data from Argus noted that contracts for Urals oil grade sold as cheap as $38 per barrel in the port of Primorsk, less than half of the Brent benchmark, pressured by the embargo from the West as soaring shipping costs to China and India limit demand.

Miners and metallurgists also booked losses as the ruble’s appreciation weighed on export demand, with Mechel sliding 1.6%

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index extended early gains and closed 1.3% higher at 2,190 on Wednesday, its strongest session in over one month, supported by sharp gains for banks.

State-backed lending giant Sberbank soared 4.1% amid optimism in the sector and upgrades in recommendations from domestic brokers, triggering rallies for other stocks in the Russian financial sector.

In the meantime, oil shares tanked as state-backed giant Rosneft cleared dividends, sending shares to plummet 5.4%.

In the meantime, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated that Russia posted a budget deficit equivalent to 2.3% of the GDP in 2022, abruptly swinging from 11 straight months of surpluses as low energy exports at lower prices combined with increased war spending, confirming the unsustainable fiscal practices from the Federal government and flagging concerns about the reliability of energy revenue streams.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index pared sharper losses from earlier in the session but closed marginally below the flatline, as sharp losses for oil producers offset the intra-day rebound for miners and metallurgists.

Surgut and Transneft dropped 1% as the darkened outlook for the Russian oil sector continued to pressure the sector.

Research from Helsinki-based Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air stated that the G7’s price cap on services related to Russian oil erases $172 million per day due to premiums charged by Western insurance and tankers, even if the cap has not been triggered yet.

Lower oil revenues have caused the federal government to post a RUB 3.3 trillion budget deficit last year, further pressing the state’s fragile finances and squeezing the country’s rainy-day National Wealth Fund.

On the other hand, metallurgists booked gains as base metal prices rose.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index recovered from a muted start and closed 0.6% higher at a one-month peak of 2,200 on Friday, notching a 1.9% gain on the week.

Gains were led by the financial sector with Sberbank adding 1.6% ahead of the imminent release of its December financial statement.

Meanwhile, gold miners Polymetal and Polus jumped by 3.5% and 1.6%, respectively, as benchmark gold prices rose above $1,900 per ounce.

On the other hand, the oil sector underperformed as the grim outlook for the sector continued to pressure equities.

Research from Helsinki-based Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air stated that the G7’s price cap on services related to Russian oil deprives the Kremlin of $172 million per day due to premiums charged by Western insurance and tankers, even if the cap has not been triggered yet.

In the meantime, investors awaited inflation data to be released after the bell.

12 MONTH MOEX CHART
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