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Russian stock market opens March 24 2022 first time since start of war


The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed nearly 2% higher at 2,161 on Thursday, rebounding sharply from the slight decrease in the prior session to levels not seen in five weeks with support from energy and metallurgist shares.

The strong momentum continued to be supported by hopes that companies will distribute hefty dividend payments, partially making up for previous dividend cancelations amid the crash in Russian financial markets.

The movements take place despite the negative external sentiment and uncertainty in the Russian energy sector ahead of sanctions by the EU, underscoring that the deteriorating geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop has little effect on Russian equities.

Oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil both extended their rallies amid dividend announcement hopes.

In the meantime, investors await the CBR’s decision tomorrow, set to hold rates steady at 7.5% after six consecutive rate cuts.
 

The MOEX Russia index pared early losses and closed slightly above the flatline at 2,165 on Friday, the highest in over five weeks, after the Central Bank of Russia held its key interest rate at 7.5% as expected.

The decision signaled the end of the loosening cycle by the CBR, halting six straight rate cuts since the emergency hike to 20% in February.

In the meantime, investors digested President Putin’s speech at an annual meeting in Moscow, where he further emphasized the Ukrainian invasion’s perceived success and took jabs against Western leaders, strengthening concerns that Russia will remain economically isolated for a prolonged period.

Still, sentiment was lifted slightly after Defense Minister Shoigu announced Russia's military mobilization is done.

The MOEX closed the week 6.9% higher amid hopes that companies will distribute hefty dividend payments, underscoring that the deteriorating geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop has little effect on Russian equities.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed flat at 2,167 on Monday, remaining at the five-week high hit on Friday and booking a 10% advance in October as investors continued to monitor blue-chip stocks announcing dividend payments.

The rally during the month underscored the disconnect between Russian equities and the worsening geopolitical situation as retaliation from the West continued to isolate Russia’s economy form the rest of the world.

In the meantime, Moscow pulled out of the UN-brokered agreement that guaranteed a safe trade corridor for Ukrainian grain shipments through the Black Sea.

Still, Russian fertilizer producers closed mixed, with PhosAgro booking gains while Acron sharply declined.
 

The MOEX ended little changed at 2,170 on the first trading day of November, after booking a 10% advance in October, as investors continued to monitor blue-chip stocks announcing dividend payments.

Rosseti shares were among the top performers as the board of directors of some subsidiaries is set to meet today, and some may pay dividends.

On the other hand, shares of Rosneft were down for a third consecutive day, and stocks of Severstal and Moscow Exchange were also lower.
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed flat at 2,174 on Wednesday, remaining close to the over five-week high hit in the last session as investors continued to monitor possible dividend payment announcements and corporate results.

Lukoil closed marginally higher after announcing it will pay dividends of RUB 256 per share for profits during the first three quarters of 2022, adding to the RUB 537 per share from retained 2021 profits.

Other energy giants also closed in the green, with Rosneft adding more than 1%.

The gains take place despite the negative external sentiment and uncertainty in the Russian energy sector ahead of sanctions by the EU, underscoring that the deteriorating geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop has little effect on Russian equities.

On the other hand, miners and metallurgists closed in the red, with Severstal dropping nearly 1%.
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.8% lower at 2,156 on Thursday, easing from the five-week high hit earlier this week with pressure from banks and fertilizer producers.

The Russian Ministry of Economic Development announced that the economy contracted 5% yearly in September, driving the Ministry to forecast a 4.4% contraction in the third quarter.

In the meantime, October PMI data showed a strong decline in private sector output in October driven by the service sector, as manufacturers registered a further rise in production.

On the corporate front, sharp losses for the Bank of Saint Petersburg and PhosAgro led the declines for lenders and fertilizer producers, respectively.

On the other hand, energy heavyweights booked gains after the Finance Ministry announced it expects energy revenues to have risen in October due to higher global oil prices.
 

The Moscow exchange was closed on Friday due to Russia's Unity Day holiday.
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 2.5% higher at 2,208 on Monday, rising to levels not seen since September with support from metallurgists and energy producers, as investors returned from holidays on Friday.

Rosneft led the oil giants traded in Moscow with a near 6% jump, as its board is expected to announce dividend recommendations this week.

Other oil companies outperformed the broader index, benefiting from the Finance Ministry’s announcement that it expects energy revenues to have risen in October due to the rebound in global benchmark prices.

In the meantime, iron ore miners and steel producers also rallied, with Severstal, Mechel, and NLMK all jumping over 5%.
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed marginally below the flatline at 2,207 on Tuesday, edging down from the seven-week high touched in the prior session as losses for energy giants offset advances for metallurgists and banks.

After soaring nearly 7% in the prior session, Rosneft led the pullback in the oil sector's rally to drop 1.3% today.

Urals oil prices trade at the highest levels since July, and weekly seaborne oil exports jumped to a five-month high at the start of November as Russian firms rush to sell oil products ahead of the start of the EU’s oil embargo next month.

In the meantime, traders also digested remarks from CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina stating that the central bank will maintain current capital controls supporting the ruble and that inflation expectations are high, erasing hopes that the bank could deliver another rate cut.
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1.8% lower at 2,167 on Wednesday, marking its worst session in three weeks with downward pressure from banks and energy producers.

Oil stocks extended their decline, as investors continued to gauge expectations of the sector’s profitability ahead of the EU’s oil embargo in December.

Vessel data compiled by Bloomberg indicated that weekly seaborne oil exports jumped to a five-month high in early November as sellers scrap to complete transactions before the start of restrictions.

Besides halting oil imports, the embargo will prohibit European tankers from operating oil shipments to China and India.

Transneft and Surgut shares fell 3% and 2%, respectively, while Rosneft dropped 1% as investors await the Board’s dividend decision expected this week.

In the meantime, investors also awaited fresh inflation figures to be posted shortly after the closing bell.
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 2% up at 2,210 on Thursday, the highest since late September with support from banks and miners.

Sberbank shares jumped nearly 7% to lead the gains in the session after the lender posted a 9.8% annual increase in profits in October, in addition to announcing plans to pay dividends next year.

VTB also closed higher with a 3.5% increase after its owner announced that the takeover of Otkritie Bank should be completed before the end of the year.

In the meantime, miners and metallurgists also closed sharply higher, supported by an increase in base metals and bullion as the dollar retreated sharply.

The rally in the sector signaled some connection between Russian equities and the external environment, which has grown increasingly uncommon due to capital controls in Russian financial markets
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index rose 7 points to 2,217 on Friday, adding 2.9% on the week to close at its highest since late September, as investors monitored corporate developments and shook off news of Russian military losses in Ukraine.

Miners and metal workers extended yesterday’s rally and led the gains in Moscow, supported by the jump in base metal and bullion prices paired with a weakening dollar.

The upturn signaled some connection between Russian equities and the external environment, which has grown increasingly uncommon since February due to capital controls in Russian financial markets.

In the meantime, banks closed mixed after last session’s rally due to positive outlooks for Sberbank and VTB.

Oil shares also traded in the red, with Rosneft dropping nearly 1% as investors awaited a potential dividend announcement by the company’s board after the closing bell

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1.2% higher at a two-month high of 2,244 on Monday, as investors continued to monitor commodity markets and corporate news.

Shares from miners and metallurgists continued to grow after carrying last week’s rally, supported by higher prices for iron and steel.

The upturn signaled some connection between Russian equities and international benchmark commodity prices, which has grown uncommon since February due to capital controls in Russian financial markets.

Rusal, Mechel, and NorNickel increased between 2% and 4%.

In the meantime, Rosneft stocks dropped 1.7% after dividend recommendations from the company’s Board underwhelmed investors.

Oil producers continue to be pressured by a clouded outlook ahead of the start of the EU oil embargo in three weeks.

Data compiled by Bloomberg pointed to Russia receiving $118 million in seaborne oil export revenues on the week ending November 11th, the lowest since the start of the year.
 

The MOEX Russia index fell 1% to close at 2,223 on Tuesday, retreating from the two-month high hit in the prior session with broad pressure from energy producers and metallurgists.

Oil stocks fell 1.1% on average as investors continued to assess the darkening outlook for the sector ahead of the start of the EU embargo in three weeks.

Russian seaborne oil exports to Europe will be halted on December 5th, while Russia will also be prohibited from using Western tankers and insurance services on deliveries to Asia.

Ahead of the embargo, data compiled by Bloomberg pointed to Russia receiving $118 million in seaborne oil export revenues on the week ending November 11th, the lowest since the start of the year.

Rosneft shares underperformed the sector for a second straight session and fell 2.7% after dividend announcements underwhelmed investors.

In the meantime, Gazprom shares closed muted after the gas giant announced that exports fell by 43.2% and production fell by 19.2% year-to-date.
 

The MOEX Russia index closed 0.2% higher at 2,227 on Wednesday, paring losses after being down 1.5% at the start of the session as investors assessed risks that heightened geopolitical tension could bring to the Russian economy.

Following the initial investigations, Poland and NATO officials said that the missile that hit a Polish grain facility close to the Ukrainian border was likely a stray fired by Ukrainian defenses, driving Polish PM Morawiecki to say Poland might not need to trigger NATO’s Article 4.

Capital controls limited the impact that geopolitical tensions immediately have on Russian assets after Moscow ramped up air strikes to Kyiv to their heaviest since the start of the war in February while Russian forces retreated from Eastern Ukrainian territories.

Miners rebounded from early losses to lead gains for the index, with Polymetal and NLMK both adding more than 3%.
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.6% lower at 2,213 on Thursday, extending its retreat from the two-month high this week with pressure from miners and metallurgists.

Base metal producers Mechel and Rusal further trimmed last week’s rally and tanked nearly 3%, leading the losses for the sector.

The former was also pressured by the Russian government announcing it will raise taxes on coking and thermal coal in the first quarter of 2023.

Also, Norilsk Nickel tracked the further decline for the LME nickel benchmark and dropped 2%.

Among oil stocks, Tatneft tanked 2% as investors further digested dividend announcements from the company’s board, while Transneft rebounded 0.2% from yesterday’s slump as flows via the Druzhba pipeline to Europe restarted.

In the meantime, geopolitical tensions continued to show a limited impact on Russian equities after NATO officials believed it was a stray Ukrainian missile that hit Polish territory.
 

The MOEX Russia index closed 0.4% lower at 2,204 on Friday, marking a 0.5% drop on the week amid pressure from commodity-backed shares.

The subindex for oil and gas producers fell 2.2% on the week, significantly underperforming the broader benchmark as investors continued to assess the concerning outlook for the Russian energy sector ahead of the start of the EU oil embargo in December.

Besides the halt of seaborne oil exports to EU states, companies will be prohibited from using Western tankers and insurance services on deliveries to Asia.

Ahead of the embargo, data compiled by Bloomberg pointed to Russia receiving $118 million in seaborne oil export revenues on the week ending November 11th, the lowest since the start of the year.

In the meantime, the EU announced it is set to place a cap on natural gas prices at the end of the month, further pressuring state-run energy giants. Tatneft and Novatek both fell 1% in the session.

12 MONTH MOEX CHART

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index held losses throughout the session to close 1.8% down at 2,166 on Monday, dropping to the lowest in over two weeks as investors continued to assess the effect that foreign markets closing themselves to Russian energy may have on the domestic economy and the federal government’s fiscal health.

The European Union is set to halt seaborne oil imports from Russia and set a price ceiling for the use of European tankers and insurance services on oil shipments starting December 5th.

In the meantime, EU states continue to consider a price cap on Russian natural gas.

Oil giants Rosneft and Tatneft sank more than 3%, while natural gas producer Novatek dropped 2.9%.

Metallurgists also continued to fall, erasing the rally earlier in the month. Mechel and Polyus stocks slipped over 3% each.
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1.3% higher at 2,196 on Tuesday, nearly erasing the sharp decline from the prior session with broad support from metallurgists as investors weighed on President Vladimir Putin’s new addition to the budget law.

The new documents signal the allocation of RUB 8 trillion from oil and gas revenues for 2023-2035 with an annual indexation of 4% from 2026.

Further, the budget deficit is planned to be at 2% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024 with RUB 2.9 trillion to be financed by the country’s National Welfare Fund, an unprecedented move.

On the corporate front, Polyus and MMK led the gains for the mining and metallurgical sector with each advancing more than 4%.

Oil producers were in the green but underperformed the broader index, as investors continued to assess the outlook for the sector ahead of the EU’s embargo in December.

Also, Gazprom ended flat after stating it may curb gas shipments via Ukraine next week.
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia Index closed 0.7% higher at 2,212 on Wednesday, extending last session’s rebound as investors monitored the extent of measures against Russian energy exports from the European Union and its effect on state revenues.

The EU is set to halt seaborne oil shipments to Europe and allow the use of European tankers and insurance services to Asia below a price cap, previously speculated to range between $65-$70 per barrel.

Still, Russian authorities have pledged that no sales will be allowed for any country that complies with the cap, jeopardizing much-needed energy revenues for the state.

At the same time, the EU proposed a ceiling on natural gas prices at €275 for TTF contracts, well above current prices.

Oil producers and gas giant Gazprom closed between 0.5%-1% higher, as restrictions were not deemed worse than expectations.

The latter announced it could cut gas flows through its last remaining pipeline to Europe next week, citing storage disputes with Moldova
 
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