Roller's Intraday futures journey

[InsvestoBoy]

levels of interest on the Nikkei.

Watching this one (TOPIX futs)?

 

[Roller_1]

I did not know about TOPIX, just looked it up. The Nikkei is looking a bit stronger than that I think will be interesting what happens. We have had a crack at this level a few times so supply should be starting to dry up.

I'm looking at that blue line as a bit of a last defense. In saying that though we don't have much momentum at the moment and have been chopping up towards these levels.

There was a nice long set up this morning but I was not keen to take any trades today, plus I had a more bearish outlook in the morning.

I don't really have too much of an opinion at the moment as you can tell from my each way statements above ha ha. I just try to play the levels that present

 

[Roller_1]

Watching the red line around 28050 for a shorting opportunity if we push back up there. I had a couple of trades yesterday both losses trying to fight the trend. Need to get back into good habits after my break.

Started watching the AUD contract yesterday. 4 trades 4 winners. Don't you love beginners luck. It is like when you turn 18 and put your first dollar in the pokie machine, basically guaranteed to win and suck you in lol

 

[Roller_1]

Very slow day today with the market waiting for CPI numbers out of the US it seems. I only tried one short today which got stopped out. Oh well.

Same on the Aussie dollar very slow and not much movement

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Very slow day today with the market waiting for CPI numbers out of the US it seems. I only tried one short today which got stopped out. Oh well.

Same on the Aussie dollar very slow and not much movement

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You should do some testing on the volatility of instruments during Asian hours. I would stick to Asian index futs, if you depend on any form of range expansion to make money you are gonna get chewed up trading FX during Asian hours.

 

[Roller_1]

You should do some testing on the volatility of instruments during Asian hours. I would stick to Asian index futs, if you depend on any form of range expansion to make money you are gonna get chewed up trading FX during Asian hours.

Will have a look,, thanks. AUD during our market hours seems to be ok. but will investigate. What are you trading?

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Will have a look,, thanks. AUD during our market hours seems to be ok. but will investigate.

AUD is probably the best of a bad bunch, due to commodity beta and some movement on that front (CL/etc) when Shanghai opens, but a lot of the time you will find USD quietness just kills the volatility completely. Which TBH is fine if you have some strategies to make money in that environment.

What are you trading?

Nothing, I'm lazy. Used to do some intraday quant stuff tho.

 

[Roller_1]

Was a public holiday in Japan yesterday so a quiet day.

Initially I was unsure this morning of the direction that the day may take, but there was a strong move of the open with a lot of volume to the upside. I got a nice low-risk entry with a tight stop so I thought that there may be enough momentum behind it to push through the resistance. It is always nice when a plan comes together, even if that plan was kind of made up on the fly. Huge volume on the push through these levels, looking for a trend day. I have taken two thirds of the position off just under 28400.

Lets see where we end up. It would be nice to get up to the pink line around 650, but also watching 550 as a possible resistance area

 

[Roller_1]

Last Friday did turn out to be a solid trend today, and we have continued on this morning. I got onto a nice trade this morning from the green line, and took it all off once we got to what I think maybe a daily resistance area around 28855. I was tempted to leave one contract on, but sometimes I get caught out looking for a perfect trade instead of a good trade. This trade was still larger than my usual in terms R:R so even if we do continue on I am happy with how it played out.

If price can hold this level then I think we could push up a lot higher, potentially 29150ish. alternatively if we break down from here there could be a nice short opportunity if we retest 845ish.

 

[Roller_1]

If price can hold this level then I think we could push up a lot higher, potentially 29150ish. alternatively if we break down from here there could be a nice short opportunity if we retest 845ish.

It would have been a nice short but did not get a chance as it unfolded overnight. Bias is still towards the upside but if we get some more rotation around this area than shorting will be looking a bit more appealing.

My stats show that I'm definitely better at trading the long side, I think that's because I get a bit too keen when I think price is going to drop away. The market moves quickly to the downside when it wants to, and I think I get a bit too eager to try and catch this.

 

[Roller_1]

Yesterday was very flat besides a few morning moves, I did not really get hold of anything tried a long and a short. For a small loss.

Still focusing on the upside today but getting closer to some resistance areas. Starting to lose a bit of momentum also as we approach, so will be a good test case if we get up there. Also can't be at the desk as much today so if nothing presents in the morning I may be standing aside

 

[Roller_1]

I do not a chance to take any long positions on the way up to resistance yesterday. Would have been a very nice trade targeting the 150 area but oh well. Once we got up there I had a punt at a short from 120, but had to leave the office so put my stop to break even and just missed my first target on the initial push down. Oh well

Momentum is still towards the upside but I think the odds are starting to lean towards the short side, would be nice to get a retest of the 150 area to see how that reacts.

 

[Roller_1]

Another pretty flat day. Ended up basically breakeven, down slightly. Never really got too much going was on to a few trades but held a bit too long and got hit at breakeven, along with a few small losses. Still favouring the downside but we are holding onto support around the 900 area which has been tested multiple times now so the dam wall might be weakening. Was waiting for a push-up to test the 29050 area but obviously that did not happen. Probably get a nice move after hours again

 

[Roller_1]

Momentum is still towards the upside but I think the odds are starting to lean towards the short side, would be nice to get a retest of the 150 area to see how that reacts.



View attachment 145600

I really dropped the ball on Friday by letting the shorter term charts overtake from what the larger timeframes were telling me. On Thursday I said I wanted to look for a retest of the 150 area. By Friday morning we had chopped our way up towards 150. By then the look of the 15 minute chart I thought we were forming a reaccumulation type pattern that I had traded with some success in the past. But the difference was that they had all been either at the start of a run-up or after a decent pullback. So instead of looking for a short around the 150 area I had a go at some longs and let my short term bias take over.

Although it did not cause too much damage, it was a missed opportunity and a good lesson. Always focus on the larger timeframes first.

 

[Roller_1]

The last few weeks have been okay for me, pretty much just breaking even. 1.1 steps forward 1 step back lol. Still feel like I'm slowly making some progress on reading the markets.

Today I have this green line that price bounced off going into Fridays close as the last line of defence. I think if this breaks then prices will go a lot lower.

A big retracement of fridays US news up to 27820ish would be nice

 

[Roller_1]

The last few weeks have been okay for me, pretty much just breaking even. 1.1 steps forward 1 step back lol. Still feel like I'm slowly making some progress on reading the markets.

Today I have this green line that price bounced off going into Fridays close as the last line of defence. I think if this breaks then prices will go a lot lower.

A big retracement of fridays US news up to 27820ish would be nice

View attachment 146357

yesterday was quiet so no levels had been invalidated.

Today should have been a great day but I've got back in the habit of micromanaging my trades. I feel like I broke this habit a while back but it seems to be rearing its head again. My levels held up well but obviously exited way too early! I think this stems from giving back profits over the last few days. I find it's a tough balancing act between giving positions enough room and then either locking in some profits or moving stops to break even. Nothing worse than getting positions in profit and then ending up in either nothing or a loss. There was no reason to exit these positions, at the very least I could have just taken one contract off and let the other two ride with my stop at breakeven.

@pavilion103 does someone like yourself who are more experienced have a systematic way of handling open profits? Or is it more around price action and your read on how things are playing out.

 

[pavilion103]

yesterday was quiet so no levels had been invalidated.

Today should have been a great day but I've got back in the habit of micromanaging my trades. I feel like I broke this habit a while back but it seems to be rearing its head again. My levels held up well but obviously exited way too early! I think this stems from giving back profits over the last few days. I find it's a tough balancing act between giving positions enough room and then either locking in some profits or moving stops to break even. Nothing worse than getting positions in profit and then ending up in either nothing or a loss. There was no reason to exit these positions, at the very least I could have just taken one contract off and let the other two ride with my stop at breakeven.

@pavilion103 does someone like yourself who are more experienced have a systematic way of handling open profits? Or is it more around price action and your read on how things are playing out.

View attachment 146425

It’s tricky. One of the best things for me is as soon as I enter a trade, having a clear idea about my exit plan.

Some days I will look to exit intraday. Other days to hold overnight, or longer. It depends on the place on the chart.

You really have to look at the risk to reward also. If a trade looks like it’s getting towards a place where the risk to reward is shrinking, then I’m more likely to exit at any signs of potential reversal, or even slowing down.

When a trade has moved 80% towards the target, then it makes less sense to take risk in holding for that extra 20%. But if it’s only 25% towards my target, but already in good profit, I’m more likely to hold onto it because I know what the plan is. I then have no regrets about being stopped out because I followed my plan.

The only time I have real regrets is when I had a plan in place and then micromanaged my trade and did what I never planned to do.

Risking giving back profit, in the right places, is just an essential component to having big winners.

I actually like to walk away from the screen once things are set and I know that there’s no reason to exit in the next little period of time. I might set alerts on my phone, I’ll come back in a little while, but I find when I’m watching the screen it causes me to make irrational decisions.

On this move down on the FTSE from 7500, I have taken a number of positions. I am still holding positions from the very top. I have also taken positions which I’ve exited intraday, and others which I’ve exited after a day or two. Having multiple positions is really helpful because you can exit some and let other ones run.

I get a bit of a gut feeling with how to do this. When I get a niggling feeling that I should be lifting some profits and that holding onto them is probably gambling, it is wise to exit the positions that I want to. When I feel that I want to take profits out of fear because I have too much open profits, I ask myself is this part of the plan?

I’m not sure that that is terribly helpful but that’s the way I think things through. One thing you want to avoid is all or nothing approach. Doing this you will both give back lots of profit, and also miss out on lots of potential profit.

 

[Roller_1]

It’s tricky. One of the best things for me is as soon as I enter a trade, having a clear idea about my exit plan.

Some days I will look to exit intraday. Other days to hold overnight, or longer. It depends on the place on the chart.

You really have to look at the risk to reward also. If a trade looks like it’s getting towards a place where the risk to reward is shrinking, then I’m more likely to exit at any signs of potential reversal, or even slowing down.

When a trade has moved 80% towards the target, then it makes less sense to take risk in holding for that extra 20%. But if it’s only 25% towards my target, but already in good profit, I’m more likely to hold onto it because I know what the plan is. I then have no regrets about being stopped out because I followed my plan.

The only time I have real regrets is when I had a plan in place and then micromanaged my trade and did what I never planned to do.

Risking giving back profit, in the right places, is just an essential component to having big winners.

I actually like to walk away from the screen once things are set and I know that there’s no reason to exit in the next little period of time. I might set alerts on my phone, I’ll come back in a little while, but I find when I’m watching the screen it causes me to make irrational decisions.

On this move down on the FTSE from 7500, I have taken a number of positions. I am still holding positions from the very top. I have also taken positions which I’ve exited intraday, and others which I’ve exited after a day or two. Having multiple positions is really helpful because you can exit some and let other ones run.

I get a bit of a gut feeling with how to do this. When I get a niggling feeling that I should be lifting some profits and that holding onto them is probably gambling, it is wise to exit the positions that I want to. When I feel that I want to take profits out of fear because I have too much open profits, I ask myself is this part of the plan?

I’m not sure that that is terribly helpful but that’s the way I think things through. One thing you want to avoid is all or nothing approach. Doing this you will both give back lots of profit, and also miss out on lots of potential profit.

Thanks Pav.

I have found sometimes to that the best thing for me also especially once I get my stop to break even is just to walk away and let the trade play out. Unless things are looking a bit choppy then sometimes it is best just to let things played out.

But like you said if a trade is getting close to a target them the risk/reward gets skewed out of our favour.

I have found that my analysis is getting better it is just my trade management that is hurting at the moment. Still a long way to go to perfect analysis but self sabotage is definitely hurting my results so far.

e thing you want to avoid is all or nothing approach. Doing this you will both give back lots of profit, and also miss out on lots of potential profit.

Okay thanks, a few things to work on! I will try and put these into practice.

Have to avoid micromanaging trades while also locking in enough profit

 

[pavilion103]

Thanks Pav.

I have found sometimes to that the best thing for me also especially once I get my stop to break even is just to walk away and let the trade play out. Unless things are looking a bit choppy then sometimes it is best just to let things played out.

But like you said if a trade is getting close to a target them the risk/reward gets skewed out of our favour.

I have found that my analysis is getting better it is just my trade management that is hurting at the moment. Still a long way to go to perfect analysis but self sabotage is definitely hurting my results so far.



Okay thanks, a few things to work on! I will try and put these into practice.

Have to avoid micromanaging trades while also locking in enough profit

Just make sure you learn from every mistake.
You might lose some dollars but you’ll gain much more in lessons in the long run!

 

[Roller_1]

Just make sure you learn from every mistake.
You might lose some dollars but you’ll gain much more in lessons in the long run!

Did/do you (or anyone else?) ever use any commercial journaling tools. There seems to be some good products out there but not sure if it'll be worth it. I've been doing my own but not as flash as commercial ones. They would give a deeper insight into stats i guess.