Actively managed portfolio journey

[Value Hunter]

Ah ok that makes sense.

Not to mention the government can and likely will push up the minimum retirement/access age for super. It could also increase taxes on superannuation (both contribution taxes and income taxes, etc).

 

[BossMan.]

TRADE UPDATE

Sold out of ASX:GMG for a few percent profit (sold at 36.55) could of gotten another 0.5% out of it if I had time to play closer attention.

Happy with the trade however, will post the percentage profit once I do my EOW update (on Saturday/Sunday night)

Future trade idea;

Considering taking out a ASX short position via an ETF in the lead up to the RBA decision. I speculate we will see a hold by the RBA. Will watch the economic releases closely in the lead up to the decision and prior to opening the very short term short position.

Onwards & Upwards

 

[divs4ever]

Considering taking out a ASX short position via an ETF in the lead up to the RBA decision. I speculate we will see a hold by the RBA. Will watch the economic releases closely in the lead up to the decision and prior to opening the very short term short position.

IF you do , be prepared to take a loss if the market swings the wrong way , and take it relatively quickly unless you think there is more favorable news ( to the short ) coming

an alternate plan is to add more ( VERY carefully ) as the short price slides and try for a 3 to 6 month play

good luck

my guess would be a hold BUT then there is a Federal election a few months away , is the RBA as apolitical as it claims to be

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update

On a sleepless night, writing this update, made a commitment to take a housemate to the airport at 3:30am and couldn't sleep by 1:30am so just gave up.

A turbulent week from all out fear around the DeepSeek models to a strong close of the week and a seemingly strong Friday session in New York. All is riding on a delicate soft landing I fear. Retrace is imminent..

Weightings



Profit / Loss



Current thoughts;

ASX:AAL is performing extremely well. I am not sure how long this will last, have moved stop losses to now accommodate a minimum 25% gain on my capital if things go bottoms up/we see major capitulation (on the tightly held volume)

Property assets are performing strongly and have for the full duration of this portfolio representing the top performing asset class in both total returns and capital gains. Will buy the dip when the RBA holds interest rates (if they do). For context I am a final year economics student who works full time within Financial Services at a major Australian bank in Data Platforms, so I really enjoy constructing theories based on my learnings at University, thus far it has proven exceptionally useful for reading FX and fed policy.

On a late night why not have some ramblings;

My current course of action for Q1 2025 are the following; at least these are my thoughts based on the current economic situation:

1. Bring property exposure back into an overweight position by increasing net exposure by ~6-7% bringing our position to ~21 - 22% of the portfolios weighting, I am doing this based on the following rationale;
   • Return to office drive
   • Stabilization in interest rates over the course of the next 6 - 12 months
   • To many vested interest in the success of commercial property (big super and a large amount of Australians retirement funds)
   • I believe we will see a HOLD decision from the RBA in February, I believe this will present a whipsaw buying opportunity, if this doesn't occur and there is indeed a CUT I will wait for the initial hype to die down and buy on the inevitable sell off in the subsequent days.
2. Open a position in ASX:BBOZ on the decision date from the RBA (on the morning of) with the intention to close it out on the same day. Risk will be tightly managed accounting for a maximum loss of ~3% and will be utilizing trading funds that amounts to approximately 4% of the portfolios total value.
3. Divest my position in ASX:VDBA and rotate 50% into ASX:A200 and the other 50% into ASX:HQUS (Equal Weighted S&P500) my rationale for this decision is the lack of capital growth on VDBA (while it has returned ~ 6.68% in Capital Gains) I don't believe it meets the growth criteria I am targeting for this portfolio.

Fully expecting to receive a windfall pay rise of ~10 - 12% in the coming months and in turn will inject this buffer into my portfolio. I have a key value target I am aiming to hit by April and hope to share with everyone.

The Goodman Group Trade

This trade returned 2.51% in capital gains, not a shabby result could of squeezed an extra 0.5% out as mentioned but was preoccupied with work and just wanted to lock it in, managed to get out at a price above the close however so am happy with that.

Getting better at managing my risk and timing it, or is it just luck (im not sure) but limiting my downside and getting in and out within a week seems to serve me better. I have added a category to my ShareSight account called "DEFINED TRADE" this will capture all trade specific allocations.

Some notable mentions in FY24 that have been classed as Speculative are the following;

• Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG) - 29.77% return in a period of ~30 - 40 days
• Australian Dollar Bull Fund (ASX:AUDS) various trades over the course of FY24 amounting to a total return of 5.15%. Was really proud of my exit going into Christmas that substantially limited my downside.
• Wisetech Global (ASX:WTC) a trade returning 6.46% off the back of governance scandals that effected the share price substantially a trade that amounted to a hold period of less then 14 days.

None the less until next week or my next trade, onwards and upwards motha fuckas

 

[qldfrog]

EOW Update

On a sleepless night, writing this update, made a commitment to take a housemate to the airport at 3:30am and couldn't sleep by 1:30am so just gave up.

A turbulent week from all out fear around the DeepSeek models to a strong close of the week and a seemingly strong Friday session in New York. All is riding on a delicate soft landing I fear. Retrace is imminent..

Weightings

View attachment 192345

Profit / Loss

View attachment 192346

Current thoughts;

ASX:AAL is performing extremely well. I am not sure how long this will last, have moved stop losses to now accommodate a minimum 25% gain on my capital if things go bottoms up/we see major capitulation (on the tightly held volume)

Property assets are performing strongly and have for the full duration of this portfolio representing the top performing asset class in both total returns and capital gains. Will buy the dip when the RBA holds interest rates (if they do). For context I am a final year economics student who works full time within Financial Services at a major Australian bank in Data Platforms, so I really enjoy constructing theories based on my learnings at University, thus far it has proven exceptionally useful for reading FX and fed policy.

On a late night why not have some ramblings;

My current course of action for Q1 2025 are the following; at least these are my thoughts based on the current economic situation:

1. Bring property exposure back into an overweight position by increasing net exposure by ~6-7% bringing our position to ~21 - 22% of the portfolios weighting, I am doing this based on the following rationale;
   • Return to office drive
   • Stabilization in interest rates over the course of the next 6 - 12 months
   • To many vested interest in the success of commercial property (big super and a large amount of Australians retirement funds)
   • I believe we will see a HOLD decision from the RBA in February, I believe this will present a whipsaw buying opportunity, if this doesn't occur and there is indeed a CUT I will wait for the initial hype to die down and buy on the inevitable sell off in the subsequent days.
2. Open a position in ASX:BBOZ on the decision date from the RBA (on the morning of) with the intention to close it out on the same day. Risk will be tightly managed accounting for a maximum loss of ~3% and will be utilizing trading funds that amounts to approximately 4% of the portfolios total value.
3. Divest my position in ASX:VDBA and rotate 50% into ASX:A200 and the other 50% into ASX:HQUS (Equal Weighted S&P500) my rationale for this decision is the lack of capital growth on VDBA (while it has returned ~ 6.68% in Capital Gains) I don't believe it meets the growth criteria I am targeting for this portfolio.

Fully expecting to receive a windfall pay rise of ~10 - 12% in the coming months and in turn will inject this buffer into my portfolio. I have a key value target I am aiming to hit by April and hope to share with everyone.

The Goodman Group Trade

This trade returned 2.51% in capital gains, not a shabby result could of squeezed an extra 0.5% out as mentioned but was preoccupied with work and just wanted to lock it in, managed to get out at a price above the close however so am happy with that.

Getting better at managing my risk and timing it, or is it just luck (im not sure) but limiting my downside and getting in and out within a week seems to serve me better. I have added a category to my ShareSight account called "DEFINED TRADE" this will capture all trade specific allocations.

Some notable mentions in FY24 that have been classed as Speculative are the following;

• Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG) - 29.77% return in a period of ~30 - 40 days
• Australian Dollar Bull Fund (ASX:AUDS) various trades over the course of FY24 amounting to a total return of 5.15%. Was really proud of my exit going into Christmas that substantially limited my downside.
• Wisetech Global (ASX:WTC) a trade returning 6.46% off the back of governance scandals that effected the share price substantially a trade that amounted to a hold period of less then 14 days.

None the less until next week or my next trade, onwards and upwards motha fuckas

I like your focus and plan drawing mindset /hard work
Wishing you all the best Mate.
Keep on posting us

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update

We are approaching 12 months of this blog, and hence this portfolio which has morphed (and I have learnt about) in so many ways.

Total Returns Inclusive of closed positions: 11.03%
Total Capital Gains inclusive of closed positions: 8.58%

For open positions see the below.

As outlined in the ASX:AAL thread I am considering a small additional parcel if the tariffs on China stick relating to Coal and the company releases a good half year outcome in February. Have moved my stop losses up to take further profit if we see a poorer then expected outcome and capitulation.

Still keen on the property sector - specifically commercial and will look to inject the ~6-7% outlined in previous post soon; my shortlist that I am currently looking into includes.

Lendlease
Dexus
Stockland
Mirvac Group

Haven't dived to deep into these but will use it as an opportunity to learn more about DCF modelling in excel. Going to place close attention to the end date on a lot of there debt facilities.

Profit / Loss



Weightings


Onwards & Upwards

 

[Sean K]

EOW Update

We are approaching 12 months of this blog, and hence this portfolio which has morphed (and I have learnt about) in so many ways.

Total Returns Inclusive of closed positions: 11.03%
Total Capital Gains inclusive of closed positions: 8.58%

For open positions see the below.

As outlined in the ASX:AAL thread I am considering a small additional parcel if the tariffs on China stick relating to Coal and the company releases a good half year outcome in February. Have moved my stop losses up to take further profit if we see a poorer then expected outcome and capitulation.

Still keen on the property sector - specifically commercial and will look to inject the ~6-7% outlined in previous post soon; my shortlist that I am currently looking into includes.

Lendlease
Dexus
Stockland
Mirvac Group

Haven't dived to deep into these but will use it as an opportunity to learn more about DCF modelling in excel. Going to place close attention to the end date on a lot of there debt facilities.

Profit / Loss

View attachment 192843

Weightings

View attachment 192844
Onwards & Upwards

AAL going great guns for you.

 

[BossMan.]

TRADE

I will be buying ASX:BBOZ a leveraged inverse ASX fund. Just trying to get in prior to the RBA decision next week.

Will note the buy price here. Stop Loss range will allow for 10% downside (wider gap to accommodate the risk of a rally in to the announcement).

The volatility coming out of the USA and the potential currency risk for the AUD is to high in my opinion. I think the currency is an extremely important part of the rate cut story then what is being conveyed.

Positioning will equate to ~6.5% of the total portfolio value and will fall under our "DEFINED TRADE" category.

Will sell out of this position by close of business on the Wednesday.

 

[Sean K]

TRADE

I will be buying ASX:BBOZ a leveraged inverse ASX fund. Just trying to get in prior to the RBA decision next week.

Will note the buy price here. Stop Loss range will allow for 10% downside (wider gap to accommodate the risk of a rally in to the announcement).

The volatility coming out of the USA and the potential currency risk for the AUD is to high in my opinion. I think the currency is an extremely important part of the rate cut story then what is being conveyed.

Positioning will equate to ~6.5% of the total portfolio value and will fall under our "DEFINED TRADE" category.

Will sell out of this position by close of business on the Wednesday.

Interesting play. I've bought and sold this multiple times and it's always failed me. It just keeps on going down. I like the clear exit strategy, something that I've always failed at.

 

[BossMan.]

TRADE

I will be buying ASX:BBOZ a leveraged inverse ASX fund. Just trying to get in prior to the RBA decision next week.

Will note the buy price here. Stop Loss range will allow for 10% downside (wider gap to accommodate the risk of a rally in to the announcement).

The volatility coming out of the USA and the potential currency risk for the AUD is to high in my opinion. I think the currency is an extremely important part of the rate cut story then what is being conveyed.

Positioning will equate to ~6.5% of the total portfolio value and will fall under our "DEFINED TRADE" category.

Will sell out of this position by close of business on the Wednesday.

Average buy price of $23.92 inclusive of brokerage.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

For your Perusal------- A Technical Viewpoint

Sailing the BBOZ------One WEEK at a Time-----&---------------One DAY at a Time----------------------&--------15 MINUTE at a Time
Salute and Bon Voyage

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update

Strong week this week, however as stated previously I don't feel like Australia is in the position to cut interest rates. Currency risk is to great and our relative rate to most central banks is still lower/on-par.

Believe we will see a sell off on Monday and a subsequent sell off if the hold comes through.

None the less here is how we stand.

Weightings




Profit / Loss




Additional Comments

As seen above our total return since the commencement of this portfolio is 10.68% with 8.28% in capital gains. We are now losing the ASX200 in the context of capital gains.

ASX:BBOZ was acquired at the open yesterday, and then the market retreated, which acted as a hedge for my A200 holding as well and ultimately captured my upside. As outlined above this position (BBOZ) will be closed out following Tuesday as it is not viable as a long term holding.

Upon completion of the trade the value will be loaded into the property sector, and should encapsulate some of the downside on property that effects its short term price (assuming my predictions are correct). In reflection, I think the optimal play for me would be to just increase our positioning in the Property Sector by a further 5% via ASX:VAP as I don't have time to look at all the companies and make a clear decision (and the hypothesis behind the play is macro).

As we head towards March we are now a little more then two weeks away from a full 12 months with this portfolio.

Total Returns (Including Closed Positions): 11.48%
Total Capital Gains: 9.07%
Dividend Income: 2.41%

Really looking forward to what 2025 has to bring and the application of new trade ideas as I continue to learn and manage my risk (as the total value of these trades increases) as the portfolio gains steam.

Onwards & Upwards

 

[divs4ever]

interesting that you chose HQUS .. equal weight in the US sure if you like the US long term , but currency hedged ?

i suspect the local peso will continue to weaken faster than the US dollar

but then unhedged options might have been less attractive ( in THEORY unhedged should be slightly lower cost )
i definitely prefer to cherry-pick my RE exposure , but then i have plenty of research time , and you are busy earning income .

be mentally prepared for sharp down-turns , eventually all that debt must be resolved ( and i bet the smaller players .. like us wear the bulk of it )

interesting Australian resources sector is lagging despite all the hype about future demand ( and the long lead times to full production ) ( and Australia lives on the miner's back these days )

maybe you can exploit the weakness in that sector ( given you are probably looking up to 40 years ahead )

cheers and good luck

i suspect there will be plenty to learn this year ( in the markets )

 

[BossMan.]

TRADE UPDATE
Sold BBOZ for a 2.61% and rotated the funds into ASX:VAP

Updated weighting below, 22% now in the property sector. Expect some variance, but this falls as a part of my long term positioning so it's less important.




As a result we have also reduced our speculative holdings back to ~11.70% which is a better spot then what it was. The VDBA allocation is still on the cards (once I sell it at the 12 month mark).

Thinking I will do 50-60% into ASX:A200 and the remaining 40% into ASX:MVR the biggest laggard of the portfolio. This will bring my average price down. These core positions (resources, diversified growth, property) are all positions with no sell date so I can weather the storm of more adversity in the resources sector.

Onwards & Upwards

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update
Running a little bit late, had stuff happening that caused the delay. We went overweight property but the ASX is looking bleak for Monday, it appears we are seeing the beginning of a US equity correction.

I have ~6% of portfolio value in cash that is ready to be deployed. As mentioned above looking at the resource sector as well as increasing my ASX200 exposure.

Will evaluate the markets tomorrow. Injection would be into a long term holding so again timing the market shouldn't be as important. None the less here is how we stand.

Weightings



Profit / Loss



An increase in resource holdings would be into ASX:MVR the sector is unloved however it is simply untrue that in the long run another EM wont take the place of China for steel construction and other critical resources.


onwards and upwards until the next update.

 

[divs4ever]

An increase in resource holdings would be into ASX:MVR the sector is unloved however it is simply untrue that in the long run another EM wont take the place of China for steel construction and other critical resources.

i agree , my main bet is India will take up the slack BUT don't discount Indonesia and Vietnam , and MAYBE even South Korea , to make the advanced stuff ( and need fancy resources )

plenty of places need steel to build stuff but that steel may not come out of China ( in the quantities previously )

i do not see a correction in the US yet , but maybe it is a stock/sector rotation ( fund manager darlings being deserted , but real core business stocks getting some attention at last )

 

[BossMan.]

INCREASED POSITION

As outlined above, increasing my position in ASX:MVR which is the biggest laggard on my portfolio.

Resources in the long run prevail, and I’m happy to weather more down turn, however I feel like it is very much sitting near a bottom.

This will bring us overweight resources, position increase is ~4%

Someone will fill this Chinese void. The big Australian miners are rotating into copper, and iron ore will still be profitable for the big miners even if the price hits $80

Onwards & Upwards

 

[divs4ever]

INCREASED POSITION

As outlined above, increasing my position in ASX:MVR which is the biggest laggard on my portfolio.

Resources in the long run prevail, and I’m happy to weather more down turn, however I feel like it is very much sitting near a bottom.

This will bring us overweight resources, position increase is ~4%

Someone will fill this Chinese void. The big Australian miners are rotating into copper, and iron ore will still be profitable for the big miners even if the price hits $80

Onwards & Upwards

yes being young ( er than me ) has it's advantages

am out of touch on the BIG miner production costs but last i heard ( years back ) the BIG 3 can do it for under $40


good luck

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update delay
Just a brief update;

This has been the biggest pain, doubled down on interest rates and unfortunately property has seen a downswing, if only i had ASX:BBOZ still open.

Anyways, this is the damage bought in with more at ~$99

 

[qldfrog]

For info, created a VAP etf thread, previously missing