Roller's Intraday futures journey

[Roller_1]

It's a matter of being able to accept risk over a larger number of trades.
This of course is dependent on your trading capital. One way of finding out if
a looser more realistic stop is beneficial may be to trade smaller contracts at $5 a tick
CFD's or E minis.

Just a thought.

Thanks tech, the Nikkei mini Has a small tick size of slightly larger than five dollars anyway so it's not even the monetary value, I think it is more me not wanting to hurt my equity curve or something I don't know. And what makes it worse is this is only sim! A think because I set myself a goal to get to a equity level I don't want to take a loss to hurt this. But in fact is doing the opposite. I know this, but getting into my head is another thing

Meanwhile when my systematic systems flick back on I will load up 20 orders no worries and accept a much larger loss than I would on any single trading here.

 

[Roller_1]

It would not surprise me if price went all the way down to the bottom of this chart where that pink line is eventually, a big daily/weekly level there where there will be a lot of liquidity

Mean while... analysis good, execution poor

 

[Roller_1]

Price failed to hold below the pink line and that gave me a chance to get in long, got a nice run up on the initial push up into the range. But being against the overall trend I took my profits and was waiting for a larger retracement back towards 25550 for another possible long, we never quite got down far enough so I did not do any other trades after this. Price rallied hard into the close so would have been nice to be on it but oh well.

A good day that should have been a lot better in the end.

 

[Roller_1]

Chopped myself up yesterday so that was frustrating after a good day before that. Hopefully get myself back on track today. Don't really have a clear idea today so might be a morning of watching and gauging what the market wants to do

 

[Roller_1]

A pretty uneventful day for myself. Do not do too many trades just a few small long ones bouncing off support. I was looking for price to push back up towards 300 for a chance to short but we never got up there so I did not have any real conviction to the long side. Will be interesting what happens here if this support holds or if it wants to break through to test some lower levels

 

[Roller_1]

Just the one trade today. Got in at 26195 and took 2 off just under 300 then the last off at the highs (fluke) was targeting 26395 but 380 was close enough.

Looks to me as if we are in a larger accumulation pattern and looking to break towards the upside soon targeting some higher levels. But I am happy with this one trade so if it happens then I'm content with what i captured. A pretty straight line move though so a pullback would not be surprising hence why i took profits.

 

[Roller_1]

Price continued virtually straight up on Friday into the close. We are getting up towards levels of possible supply which is starting to look like a good place for shorts. There is a few levels of resistance above current price which I will look to lean on if an opportunity presents. I don't think we will sell off heavily from this area though and it might like to go up and test some higher levels. Being a Monday open a gap either way would not be surprising so that may change plans straight away

 

[Roller_1]

I messed today up. Once we sold off from the open there was no chance to get in short so I was waiting to see some accumulation start coming in. I was a bit too early and I did not think that we would get down to the shaded area, I did not have too much faith in this as it was from a smaller timeframe but obviously it push down into it in the end before reversing and trending up to take the highs. This was going to be my target from my trade but unfortunately got stopped out on that final push down.

I was hoping for a deeper test of the spring but that never really came. There was another opportunity to get in long but I chickened out, and then tried to short once we got up higher at a terrible place. Why should I be shorting if we were never even at my target for the initial long… I would still be holding the long if I got in so that does not make sense. dumb.

 

[Roller_1]

Looking for a push-up into this first shaded area for a short opportunity targeting 660

 

[Roller_1]

Yesterday we blew through that zone that I had marked up and then I went on to make a meal of the rest of the day.

Really just trying to be super patient at the moment as I was getting a bit trigger-happy, falling into old patterns. I did that today as I have not taken any trades, I was looking for price to push down and test the bottom shaded area but prices range bound for most of the day. There was probably only one trade that I could take but I told myself that if we did not get down to the area of interest that I was not going too. Sounds stupid but a small goal that I achieved.

If we can push through and hold the 600 area then I think we might like to go up a bit higher to test some levels. I probably won't be a part of it though either way

 

[Roller_1]

Been a bit MIA the last week or so, trying to get my head back in the game and minimise mistakes. The last few sessions have been a bit better by minimising over trading and really focusing on the better trades.

Just the one trade today off of the green line this morning looking for a break of the prior high, once we failed to overcome the gap level/high I should have been more aggressive with my final contract stop but let a lot of the profits come back. Oh well decent day.

I am heading away to Cairns in a few weeks so might not be doing as much trading over this month. Hopefully get a good few sessions in before I head off.

 

[Roller_1]

Just the one trade today which is working out nicely so far. A long off of the blue line this morning, I have taken some off in the shaded area as that is a point of possible reversal, but I am leaving one contract on targeting the green line above it. I actually think if we get up to this point then will probably continue on to the red resistance lines above which is a higher timeframe resistance area. But if we get to the green line I am happy to take profits there.

A fair bit of background strength so I think we will push through this area.

 

[Roller_1]

That did not take long. No more trades unless we get up to the red lines around 26900. But I won't be in the office later on today so hopefully before then

 

[Roller_1]

A good exit by the looks, reports are that the ex Japanese Prime Minister has been shot. This is going to rip back to the upside I reckon

 

[Roller_1]

Jesus, seems to be right

 

[Roller_1]

My levels I identified on Friday morning are still in play for a short opportunity if it presents tomorrow. The upside momentum is definitely starting to wane as we get closer to these resistance areas. I'm not sure if we will get a big drop from that level or not though as there has been some accumulation going on on the larger timeframes I think. Been pretty choppy the last few weeks really on the daily chart (see below)

 

[Roller_1]

Unfortunately priced push-up through the resistance area and then dropped away. I got stopped out in the process of this happening so I missed the run lower. In the afternoon I was looking for a push-up to a resistance area to get in short and got a small run down. Had taken off most of the trade at 1R but left one contract going in case it wants to drop away into the close. But price seems to be finding some support on the previous week's closing price.

Price actually turned on the area where I was targeting for my short if it was to work out as I had planned, so a bit annoying but good to see. Hindsight says I should have traded price up to the resistance line but oh well, there was nothing guaranteed in us getting up there

 

[Roller_1]

Just the one trade today so far, short from around 26 505 I had identified some resistance around the 520 area, which tagged nicely before selling off.

I have taken two of the three contracts off around this current level, this is a decision point hopefully we can break this pink line. This area has been tested a few times so should be getting weaker but we'll see what happens.

Distant target is 26185 if we can break some more levels to the downside, there might be some demand sitting in the shaded area so will adjust my stop if we get down there

 

[Roller_1]

Tightening up my stop as it is an absolute snooze fest today. Not much volume and barely moving. Hopefully this post will be the trigger for a late afternoon dump…

 

[Roller_1]

Back in the office after a couple weeks up in Cairns to escape the southern winter. An absolute magical part of the world, and will probably be penciling next year's trip in very soon.

A bit of stuff to catch up on over the next few days and hopefully hit the charts on Monday, kept an eye on things while I was away but did not do any active trading. My systematic systems started to fire up again with my monthly rotation going 100% invested and one weekly position entered this week. So see what happens there.

looking to get back into the groove the next few weeks and build on some momentum I had going into my break. Basically my goal over this year was just too try and learn to read the market and not lose money. I feel like I'm on the right track so hopefully gain some more confidence over the next few months. I am only on sim still but hopefully if I can build that account up enough then I will have enough confidence to go live. My view is if I cannot make money on sim then it is impossible in a live environment, will just cost me money.

I might start to look at the 6A (AUD) contract also while I am waiting for price to move to levels of interest on the Nikkei.

Daily chart of the Nikkei below if anyone is interested