Roller's Intraday futures journey

[Roller_1]

I think the lack of volume and movement in the last few days is probably due to the contract rollover which is happening today, looking at past rollovers it looks like volume dries up a bit on the day I think.

Just the one trade today so far a breakeven.

 

[Roller_1]

I Haven't been trading the last few sessions and wow a strong downward move after a nice delivery into supply. Although i was looking for a shorting opportunity up there i did not expect to wipe away a few weeks gains. Obviously I didn't get a piece of it which was a pity but oh well.

 

[Roller_1]

I really need to keep this tweet mind when I am in a position, especially against the trend.

I caught a nice long this morning and I took some of the position off on the way up because I knew that it was unlikely to be sustained, but I left the last contract on going for a bit of a glory trade which was unlikely to happen once it reached higher levels that I had already defined. In hindsight I should have taken profits at that target instead of hoping that it would breach it. This was a +4R target but instead let it come back to almost BE.

Initially in the morning I was looking to short any moves that got up into the area but because I was long going into their I think I let this cloud my judgement.

 

[Roller_1]

Looks to be building a case for a possible turnaround. not really sure what happened or who said what but we had a 140 point rally in about 3.5 minutes. Was long before that so I took my profits and I'm done for the day, might get some higher prices from here but time will tell

 

[Roller_1]

Looks to be building a case for a possible turnaround. not really sure what happened or who said what but we had a 140 point rally in about 3.5 minutes. Was long before that so I took my profits and I'm done for the day, might get some higher prices from here but time will tell

View attachment 142873

Got a nice run into the close, obviously hindsight says I should have held but happy with the initial profit. Maybe one day…
If this area holds then the next target I would think is the green line around 26950

 

[Roller_1]

Still in this range that we were in yesterday, I was reluctant to short this morning around the 550 area as it is looking that we are building for another push up. That is looking like it would have been the best trade so far for today.

Currently long from this area looking for a push back up to that level, but I don't have much faith in it.

I have too leave the desk in the afternoon so hopefully we get a run up before then

 

[Roller_1]

mmmm just realised the FEDs interest rate decision tomorrow (tonight) last time there was a lot of chop leading into that so we might not get a decent move from here until then

 

[Roller_1]

I was right that we did not get much of a move after the initial morning one yesterday in the lead up to the Fed decision last night or early this morning. This put a bit of a volatility boost into the consolidation area so I am still leaning towards the upside from here but don't want to get chopped around trying to find an entry

 

[Roller_1]

I was right that we did not get much of a move after the initial morning one yesterday in the lead up to the Fed decision last night or early this morning. This put a bit of a volatility boost into the consolidation area so I am still leaning towards the upside from here but don't want to get chopped around trying to find an entry

View attachment 142929

We got a break to the upside with a big gap, no chance to get in on that obviously and don't really want to buy with the big gap below it. Waiting for price to get to the area that I had identified as a target from that zone to see how it reacts, hasn't exactly been super impulsive on the way up.

Might get a spike into there before a retracement

 

[Roller_1]

We got a break to the upside with a big gap, no chance to get in on that obviously and don't really want to buy with the big gap below it. Waiting for price to get to the area that I had identified as a target from that zone to see how it reacts, hasn't exactly been super impulsive on the way up.

Might get a spike into there before a retracement

View attachment 142935

didn't quite push up high enough for me to get interested and did not really see any signs of a turnaround before it did turn . If we get down to the breakout area then there might be a chance for a retest for a long trade but that is a fair way away still

 

[Roller_1]

Now I am really pissed off about missing that short opportunity. Big move to the downside after that gap up.

I thought that we were trying to slow momentum and there might be a possible turnaround in that green highlighted area but thhat obviously didn't happen so took a loss in there.

I think in the grand scheme of things price needs to find some support around this area if it wants to head higher over the next week or so to retrace some of the impulsive leg down from earlier in the week.

A few weeks ago I was having a good run and I think I mentioned on here that I was doing well in realising if I had missed the big move on the day just being okay with that and not chasing trades. I think I have fallen into the trap of this the last few days, I have missed the initial move and then tried to force my bias which has caused some losses. Need to do some reviewing of what I was doing well and get back to that ASAP.

 

[barney]

Only drop in occasionally to have a squiz @Roller_1 , but appreciate the time and effort you put in to detail your thoughts. Well done

 

[Roller_1]

Only drop in occasionally to have a squiz @Roller_1 , but appreciate the time and effort you put in to detail your thoughts. Well done

Thanks @barney. Even though I feel like talking to myself sometimes I quite enjoy doing the posts, plus they are good to look over to see what I was thinking at the time. I try not to fall into the social media trap of only posting the good trades lol. Just need to start turning that time and effort into some dollars!!

 

[Roller_1]

There is still some hope for the upside from here I think. Price closed virtually on the level where you could say that the breakout initiated from so that is a positive it has held for now. the open to the night session could be a good tell-tale

 

[Roller_1]

Holy ****, look at the spread and Vol on that bar!

 

[Roller_1]

Area of interest for a possible short is around the 26,000 area where the shaded box is. Very volatile already this morning, I put in a short shortly after open but thought better of it and scratched at breakeven before it dropped away 150 points.. But taking trades before cash open I don't think is the wisest move in this volatility anyway.

I do like this area for a possible long trade if we get a pullback but with everything going on long's don't feel like the right thing to do. But that's what they want you to think.....



Bank of Japan has a interest rate decision at 12:30 PM so that will be some interesting times.

The smart thing to do would be probably not to trade at all leading up to that, see what happens

 

[Roller_1]

Looks like we're in a bit of a sideways range waiting for the BOJ decision. Do we get a big fake out to the downside soaking up all the liquidity and then shooting to the upside? Or following the trend with another big dump, Let's see what happens

 

[Roller_1]

I did not take any trades leading into the decision, but we got a nice strong breakout from this area and then almost a perfect test of the pink line which was previous support and now acted as resistance. I only used 1/3 of my normal position size as the volatility was still crazy, but got a nice drop down to the area where we broke from and took profits right down near the low. Probably my biggest trade points wise but obviously not profit wise. Definitely the quickest.

I then got short on the pullback once again, but got stopped out at breakeven while being too aggressive with the stop. Nice drop away after that. oh well.

Finding support around the current area, but I am stepping out this afternoon. I've had three weeks now of breaking even, so better than losing, hopefully have a good run into the end of the month.

 

[Roller_1]

Ease of movement is still down today. I am definitely my own worst enemy, I was short at 26135 pre-empting a drop, my stop was above the high of the day but I was too aggressive and tried to minimise my risk to early... Resulting in a small loss.

Luckily I realised this was dumb and re-entered but with smaller size, got a nice drop and a decent profit but I would still be holding if I was in initially with three contracts. I was and looking for a bounce back towards 26,000 for a re-entry short but that has not come yet.

It would not surprise me if price went all the way down to the bottom of this chart where that pink line is eventually, a big daily/weekly level there where there will be a lot of liquidity. There is a Chinese interest rate decision coming up shortly so standing aside for now but that could set something off.

Listening to "trading in the zone" by Mark Douglas it is funny as it points out a lot of the errors that I do. Mainly around trying to minimise "pain" but by not accepting the risk quite often this results in getting stopped out where I should not be. Which in turn leads to more "pain" by seeing the market go in the direction when I should be holding it.

Currently have it on repeat lol.

 

[tech/a]

It's a matter of being able to accept risk over a larger number of trades.
This of course is dependent on your trading capital. One way of finding out if
a looser more realistic stop is beneficial may be to trade smaller contracts at $5 a tick
CFD's or E minis.

Just a thought.