Resisting Climate Hysteria

[Smurf1976]

After reading Seans extensive story telling of why we shouldn't be so concerned about CC in 2024 - here is what is happening now.
Victoria/ S.A are facing some of the most extreme weather conditions on record. And despite a wet summer there has been no significant rain for the last 6 weeks in most of Vic and SA. Tinder dry.

Melbourne’s Moomba parade cancelled due to heat as festivalgoers in Victoria advised to leave amid fire warnings​

Two sides to this.

Yes it's hot, that's one aspect.

On the other hand not too long ago nobody would've cancelled a parade, festival, concert etc simply because it was hot. For an actual fire possibly yes, but no chance anyone would've done it just because it was hot. "Show must go on".

So the impact on events etc is more about humans than any change in the climate as such.

 

[farmerge]

Two sides to this.

Yes it's hot, that's one aspect.

On the other hand not too long ago nobody would've cancelled a parade, festival, concert etc simply because it was hot. For an actual fire possibly yes, but no chance anyone would've done it just because it was hot. "Show must go on".

So the impact on events etc is more about humans than any change in the climate as such.

Hmmm perhaps the "powers that be" have woken up to the fact that if people are starting to drop like flies during "excessive" heat periods, then the hospital system, over crowded would not be able to cope the extra load.

 

[Sean K]

Two sides to this.

Yes it's hot, that's one aspect.

On the other hand not too long ago nobody would've cancelled a parade, festival, concert etc simply because it was hot. For an actual fire possibly yes, but no chance anyone would've done it just because it was hot. "Show must go on".

So the impact on events etc is more about humans than any change in the climate as such.

Telling people to leave or not turn up to a music festival because there *might* be a fire is just plain nuts. The fear being imprinted into peoples heads by the climate lunatics is embarrassing. I think humans are evolving from homo sapiens to a new form of dumb human. Homo Stolidus.

 

[mullokintyre]

Intriguing isn't it ? When you employ the little grey cells for a few minutes.

Sean, as is his want, cuts and pastes some analysis to show that in the 20's and 30's hundreds of thousands of people perished from natural disasters. People who never knew what hit them and almost certainly couldn't have moved even if they knew. Disasters decades before international help teams were around or even capable of alleviating such events.

None of this, zero, zilch, niente has anything to do with how hot, how intense , how dangerous current climatic conditions are creating extreme dangers to our communities. It is just another misdirection with refuses to acknowledge how our climate is moving into a state that is creating conditions that weren't seen in the good old days.

The problem is Bas, statements like you make above about how hot how intense how dangerous etc are entirely subjective.
Its always been hot ,intense dangerous etc, and if anyone cares to read historical accounts of past climate extremes, one can see that there have been many such cases.You don't provide anything to back up your statement about conditions being worse than in the good old days.
I would suggest that on the contrary, things are much better.
In the good old days there was no electricty, much less electric fans airconditoners, no R35 insulation materials, no weather forecasters with enormous computers and models. People did not stop work or go to school when it got above 37.5.
People got on with their lives and put up with the heat, the cold, the wind, the rain, the lightning etc because they had to to survive.
What do we today?
The internet is full of doomsayers.
Is it any wonder that people express fear of the future when they are told they are within a whisker of perishing.

Australia here and now. In the last 10 years bushfire fighters have learnt lessons from 2009 /2019-20 in terms of how global warming has clearly made hitherto extreme fire conditions "catastrophic". The original thesis of "stay and fight" has been replaced with "get the hell out".

Another bald statement without a shred of evidence.
You often suggest to people to follow the science.
There is no science that can claim to link global warming to catastrophic conditions.
Its pyrely descriptive.
Catastrophic is not a science word, is an emotive word to convey fear.
Authorites found extreme was not sufficient so they had to go to the next level when people stopped taking notice.
And when people start to get blase about catastrophic they will have to invest another word to convey fear.
As for the changes instay and fight, that has nothing to do with climatic conditions and everything to do with logistics,

Melbourne faces 3 consecutive days of 38-39 C days. There will be exceptionally warm nights and gusty northerly winds. These days are coinciding in Mid March with a major outdoor festival that would attract 200-300 K people in the CBD. Meanwhile the rest of the state is going to cope with whatever these relentless temperatures and gusty winds will exacerbate. What could possibly go wrong ?

Relentless? Geez bas, talk about going over the top!

I would offer another comparison. Up until relatively recently AFL footy (and other sports) steadfastly refused to acknowledge that players getting belted in the head and then continuing to play might/could/DID result in serious brain damage. These days we protect the players head, have compulsory time out, take preventive action to stop foreseeable injury. I suggest authorities had a good hard look at the next 3 days of very hot weather and thought, on balance, cancelling Moomba was in the overall public interest.

Well, why not ban people from building or living within 10 km of a forrested or open field with a fuel load greater than 2.5 tonnes per hectare.

Make sure every building is equipped with adequate heating and cooling and provide adequate generation and backups to ensure that they can run.
The cancelling of Moomba was in the extremists interest, not necessarily the publics.
If people felt it was going to be too hot, they would not turn up.
In the 1950's when Moomba was first started, the concept of cancelling Moomba because it was too hot would have been laughable.

Things have not changed because of climate , but have changed because of our mindset.

Mick

 

[basilio]

The problem is Bas, statements like you make above about how hot how intense how dangerous etc are entirely subjective.
Its always been hot ,intense dangerous etc, and if anyone cares to read historical accounts of past climate extremes, one can see that there have been many such cases.You don't provide anything to back up your statement about conditions being worse than in the good old days.
I would suggest that on the contrary, things are much better.
In the good old days there was no electricty, much less electric fans airconditoners, no R35 insulation materials, no weather forecasters with enormous computers and models. People did not stop work or go to school when it got above 37.5.
People got on with their lives and put up with the heat, the cold, the wind, the rain, the lightning etc because they had to to survive.
What do we today?
The internet is full of doomsayers.
Is it any wonder that people express fear of the future when they are told they are within a whisker of perishing.


Another bald statement without a shred of evidence.
You often suggest to people to follow the science.
There is no science that can claim to link global warming to catastrophic conditions.
Its pyrely descriptive.
Catastrophic is not a science word, is an emotive word to convey fear.
Authorites found extreme was not sufficient so they had to go to the next level when people stopped taking notice.
And when people start to get blase about catastrophic they will have to invest another word to convey fear.
As for the changes instay and fight, that has nothing to do with climatic conditions and everything to do with logistics,


Relentless? Geez bas, talk about going over the top!

I would offer another comparison. Up until relatively recently AFL footy (and other sports) steadfastly refused to acknowledge that players getting belted in the head and then continuing to play might/could/DID result in serious brain damage. These days we protect the players head, have compulsory time out, take preventive action to stop foreseeable injury. I suggest authorities had a good hard look at the next 3 days of very hot weather and thought, on balance, cancelling Moomba was in the overall public interest.

Well, why not ban people from building or living within 10 km of a forrested or open field with a fuel load greater than 2.5 tonnes per hectare.

Make sure every building is equipped with adequate heating and cooling and provide adequate generation and backups to ensure that they can run.
The cancelling of Moomba was in the extremists interest, not necessarily the publics.
If people felt it was going to be too hot, they would not turn up.
In the 1950's when Moomba was first started, the concept of cancelling Moomba because it was too hot would have been laughable.

Things have not changed because of climate , but have changed because of our mindset.

Mick

A lot to think about there Mick and certainty worth discussing.

1) Climate change linked to catastrophic conditions
There is extensive evidence to prove that hotter, drier conditions have lead to far more intense and uncontrollable fires both locally and internationally. The two links offer a research based analysis and the boots on the ground experience. The change in decision making about staying and fighting versus getting out is directly related to the new intensity of fires. Greg Mullins as 50 year fire fighter does into detail on this point

Fire regimes around Australia shifted abruptly 20 years ago – and falling humidity is why

Most fire climate regimes in Australia shifted abruptly around the year 2000 – greatly increasing fire risk.

theconversation.com

https://findhereall.com/australia-news/2021/sep/27/the-world-is-burning-how-australias-longest-serving-fire-chief-became-a-climate-champion

2) Conditions being worse than "the good old days "
I could simply say "see above" because it is the new climate conditions the world is facing that is creating new weather extremes every year. In terms of temperature these have been mapped. The last 40 years has seen an average increase in global temperatures of 1C. Norther Latitudes have shown an increase of 3-4C. This has been the driving force behind the catastrophic fires in Canada, Northern Europe and Siberia

Climate explained: why is the Arctic warming faster than other parts of the world?

The Arctic region is warming much faster than the rest of the planet. The rapid loss of ice affects the polar jet stream, which influences weather patterns across the northern hemisphere.

theconversation.com

3) In the past people had less resources to cope with climate extremes and just got on with it

I can agree with that - for us. Here in Australia most of us are can just turn on the Air Con or fan, pull a jug of icy water from the fridge and get on with our lives whatever the temperature is outside.

I can agree that people can and do toughen up in relation hotter and colder climates. But that is not an absolute. There are physiological limits to what the body can cope with. But equally importantly these temperatures stress all of the ecosystem which has evolved to live within a temperature range. Go too far and animals, plants and people won't survive

In 2024 temperature extremes are reaching those limits in many countries including parts of Australia.

It takes seconds to identify numerous analysis on the current and future impacts of a rapidly warming climate. These are just a few. Whether one acknowledges them or prefers to believe they are "meaningless" "no different from the past" or "fabrications of doomsayers" depends ....

After the deluge — cascading effects of extreme weather on human health » Yale Climate Connections

First come the flood and the mad rush of damages … and then come the more long-lasting adverse impacts continuing far beyond the initial headlines and hand-wringing.

yaleclimateconnections.org

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2019.0104

https://www.science.org/content/article/lethal-levels-heat-and-humidity-are-gripping-global-hot-spots-sooner-expected

4) Peoples mindset is changing (not the climate )

Yep in a number of ways peoples mindset is changing. I used the example of how the AFL and other high intensity contact sports have finally recognised that repeated blows to the head can/will cause severe brain damage. Interestingly enough the facts of what was happening havn't changed. Repeated head blows create higher and higher risks of permanent brain damage. It has taken many years and many legal cases to get these sports bodies to change the rules and change the expectations of the games.

I could have easily highlighted smoking, lead in petrol (and everywhere else) sexual abuse of children in institutions, effects of pokies/sports gambling, affects of asbestos and so on . The facts have always been on the table about these issues. But special interests had managed for years to deny or deflect efforts at bringing them to account.

The climate is changing rapidly. Human activity is the current overwheming cause of this change through GG emmissions. The consequences are clear. Many people are recognising the reality.

Top

 

[basilio]

This video offers an insight into the evolution of climate change denial.

 

[basilio]

However Simon Clark is not a doomist. He does offer a more constructive vie of how much progress has been made and continues to be made.

 

[mullokintyre]

A lot to think about there Mick and certainty worth discussing.

1) Climate change linked to catastrophic conditions
There is extensive evidence to prove that hotter, drier conditions have lead to far more intense and uncontrollable fires both locally and internationally. The two links offer a research based analysis and the boots on the ground experience. The change in decision making about staying and fighting versus getting out is directly related to the new intensity of fires. Greg Mullins as 50 year fire fighter does into detail on this point

Fire regimes around Australia shifted abruptly 20 years ago – and falling humidity is why

Most fire climate regimes in Australia shifted abruptly around the year 2000 – greatly increasing fire risk.

theconversation.com

https://findhereall.com/australia-news/2021/sep/27/the-world-is-burning-how-australias-longest-serving-fire-chief-became-a-climate-champion

First of all, where is the evidence that conditions today are "drier and Hotter".
This is garbage science, you can pick your period where you want to do your measurements and get different answers,
Both sides of the debate do just that.
Its statistical playing.
Secondly, whatever the conditions, the unspoken part is that it is purely caused by anthropogenic affects, and of those anthrop[ogenic affects, its almost exclusively caused by emissions from fossil fuels.

2) Conditions being worse than "the good old days "
I could simply say "see above" because it is the new climate conditions the world is facing that is creating new weather extremes every year. In terms of temperature these have been mapped. The last 40 years has seen an average increase in global temperatures of 1C. Norther Latitudes have shown an increase of 3-4C. This has been the driving force behind the catastrophic fires in Canada, Northern Europe and Siberia

Climate explained: why is the Arctic warming faster than other parts of the world?

The Arctic region is warming much faster than the rest of the planet. The rapid loss of ice affects the polar jet stream, which influences weather patterns across the northern hemisphere.

theconversation.com

Absolutely no proof of that whatsover, purely speculation.
The average temperature is an artificial construct that has no bearing on reality.
There is no such thing in nature, just as there is no ideal temperature, no ideal rainfall amount, no ideal coldest temperature etc etc.

3) In the past people had less resources to cope with climate extremes and just got on with it

I can agree with that - for us. Here in Australia most of us are can just turn on the Air Con or fan, pull a jug of icy water from the fridge and get on with our lives whatever the temperature is outside.

I can agree that people can and do toughen up in relation hotter and colder climates. But that is not an absolute. There are physiological limits to what the body can cope with. But equally importantly these temperatures stress all of the ecosystem which has evolved to live within a temperature range. Go too far and animals, plants and people won't survive

Absolute garbage.
Have you never considered how the world evolved as it is?
Animals and plants have gone extinct throughout the ages due to a lot of vents, including climate change.
No body can argue that there have been periods when the world was hotter than it is now.
And its not just during the areas before hominids evolved.
Wheat was grown in parts of earth that are far to cold now.
Have a look at the ranges of temperatures that humans live in now.
The innuit have survived for thousands of years in winters where it does not get above -10centigrade.
Arabs and Africans have survived for thousands of years when temperatures have reached 50 centigrade.
look at how long civilsations have lasted in high humidtiy areas like Indonesia, India, the Amazon.
Its purely scaremongering, nothing to do with science.

In 2024 temperature extremes are reaching those limits in many countries including parts of Australia.

Based on What?
Compared to what? Somebodys gut feeling?

It takes seconds to identify numerous analysis on the current and future impacts of a rapidly warming climate. These are just a few. Whether one acknowledges them or prefers to believe they are "meaningless" "no different from the past" or "fabrications of doomsayers" depends ....

After the deluge — cascading effects of extreme weather on human health » Yale Climate Connections

First come the flood and the mad rush of damages … and then come the more long-lasting adverse impacts continuing far beyond the initial headlines and hand-wringing.

yaleclimateconnections.org

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2019.0104

https://www.science.org/content/article/lethal-levels-heat-and-humidity-are-gripping-global-hot-spots-sooner-expected

4) Peoples mindset is changing (not the climate )

Yep in a number of ways peoples mindset is changing. I used the example of how the AFL and other high intensity contact sports have finally recognised that repeated blows to the head can/will cause severe brain damage. Interestingly enough the facts of what was happening havn't changed. Repeated head blows create higher and higher risks of permanent brain damage. It has taken many years and many legal cases to get these sports bodies to change the rules and change the expectations of the games.

I could have easily highlighted smoking, lead in petrol (and everywhere else) sexual abuse of children in institutions, effects of pokies/sports gambling, affects of asbestos and so on . The facts have always been on the table about these issues. But special interests had managed for years to deny or deflect efforts at bringing them to account.

The climate is changing rapidly. Human activity is the current overwheming cause of this change through GG emmissions. The consequences are clear. Many people are recognising the reality.

There it is again. perhaps in your limited range of reading, but there are countless papers that disagree with that.
I give up.
This is pointless.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Just to demonstrate how the institutionised climate alarmism has taken over the mindsets of people.
A WA climate geo scientist has been excoriated by judge for giving misleading evidence.
That is bad enough, but the bloke is still teaching at the UWA.
Compare his treatment to that of Peter Kidd who pointed examples of fake science, but endied up getting the flick.
Its not science, its politics.
Mick
From Evil Murdoch press

 

[Sean K]

Just to demonstrate how the institutionised climate alarmism has taken over the mindsets of people.
A WA climate geo scientist has been excoriated by judge for giving misleading evidence.
That is bad enough, but the bloke is still teaching at the UWA.
Compare his treatment to that of Peter Kidd who pointed examples of fake science, but endied up getting the flick.
Its not science, its politics.
Mick
From Evil Murdoch press
View attachment 172470

The EDO should be de-established. Might be under a new government. Just a bunch of Leftard activists.

 

[IFocus]

First of all, where is the evidence that conditions today are "drier and Hotter".
This is garbage science, you can pick your period where you want to do your measurements and get different answers,
Both sides of the debate do just that.
Its statistical playing.
Secondly, whatever the conditions, the unspoken part is that it is purely caused by anthropogenic affects, and of those anthrop[ogenic affects, its almost exclusively caused by emissions from fossil fuels.


Absolutely no proof of that whatsover, purely speculation.
The average temperature is an artificial construct that has no bearing on reality.
There is no such thing in nature, just as there is no ideal temperature, no ideal rainfall amount, no ideal coldest temperature etc etc.



Absolute garbage.
Have you never considered how the world evolved as it is?
Animals and plants have gone extinct throughout the ages due to a lot of vents, including climate change.
No body can argue that there have been periods when the world was hotter than it is now.
And its not just during the areas before hominids evolved.
Wheat was grown in parts of earth that are far to cold now.
Have a look at the ranges of temperatures that humans live in now.
The innuit have survived for thousands of years in winters where it does not get above -10centigrade.
Arabs and Africans have survived for thousands of years when temperatures have reached 50 centigrade.
look at how long civilsations have lasted in high humidtiy areas like Indonesia, India, the Amazon.
Its purely scaremongering, nothing to do with science.

Based on What?
Compared to what? Somebodys gut feeling?


There it is again. perhaps in your limited range of reading, but there are countless papers that disagree with that.
I give up.
This is pointless.
Mick

I am genuinely shocked you believe the above.

 

[Sean K]

I am genuinely shocked you believe the above.

The Earth is greener not drier. A simple google will get you the facts. I'm shocked you didn't do that before posting the above.

Australian water storage levels are extremely high.

So much for rivers and dams not ever filling again.

Wolf!

 

[basilio]

The Earth is greener not drier. A simple google will get you the facts. I'm shocked you didn't do that before posting the above.

Australian water storage levels are extremely high.

So much for rivers and dams not ever filling again.

Wolf!

View attachment 172476
View attachment 172475

Talk about cherry picking.. Your just priceless Sean.

The earth is greener not drier ? I wonder if that has anything to do with vast amounts of previous permafrost areas melting and greening up ? Or the fact that China and India have undertaken vast tree planting programs to restore denuded landscapes ?

It's worth asking the question. It's even more valuable to understand what is happening and not be conned. And as usual there are more than one factor involved and temperatures are still rising relentlessly

Earth is greener than it was 20 years ago, but not why you think

Just don't look at the Amazon.

mashable.com

Earth Stopped Getting Greener 20 Years Ago

Declining plant growth is linked to decreasing air moisture tied to global warming

www.scientificamerican.com

 

[IFocus]

The Earth is greener not drier. A simple google will get you the facts. I'm shocked you didn't do that before posting the above.

Australian water storage levels are extremely high.

So much for rivers and dams not ever filling again.

Wolf!

View attachment 172476
View attachment 172475

If you followed surf forecasters you would understand why and the climate drivers for the East Coast (it's actually pretty interesting wont find it in the Australian I'll see if I can find one) note Perth's levels held up by desal and groundwater we had a shower the other day (2mins worth) 1st since Nov I think.

Not really about the above but gives you an idea there is a bit more going on.

Scroll down the comments you will his is spot with the forecast.

Slip Sliding Into La Niña | Swellnet Analysis | Swellnet

www.swellnet.com

 

[Smurf1976]

So far as water inflows to reservoirs are concerned, I'll simply say that the major water managers (water authorities, hydro, etc) have extremely good data there and in some cases it goes back a very long way.

Is there change? Yep, sure is and of particular note is the occurrence of abrupt "steps" in Tasmania and even more so in WA. Last I knew, nobody had come up with a satisfactory explanation for that beyond noting that the timing does align with changes in the earth's temperature trend, but not with absolute temperature as such, which suggests something complex is going on.

As for Tim Flannery's comments however, the data never did support the idea that reservoirs would never fill again unless brought about intentionally (that is, overuse of the water). The "inside" informal consensus is he's probably someone who just doesn't like big dams on rivers for unrelated reasons eg wilderness, ecology, scenery etc.

 

[farmerge]

So far as water inflows to reservoirs are concerned, I'll simply say that the major water managers (water authorities, hydro, etc) have extremely good data there and in some cases it goes back a very long way.

Is there change? Yep, sure is and of particular note is the occurrence of abrupt "steps" in Tasmania and even more so in WA. Last I knew, nobody had come up with a satisfactory explanation for that beyond noting that the timing does align with changes in the earth's temperature trend, but not with absolute temperature as such, which suggests something complex is going on.

As for Tim Flannery's comments however, the data never did support the idea that reservoirs would never fill again unless brought about intentionally (that is, overuse of the water). The "inside" informal consensus is he's probably someone who just doesn't like big dams on rivers for unrelated reasons eg wilderness, ecology, scenery etc.

In my extremely humble opinion, I believe that Flannery belongs to the moron brigade.

 

[IFocus]

So far as water inflows to reservoirs are concerned, I'll simply say that the major water managers (water authorities, hydro, etc) have extremely good data there and in some cases it goes back a very long way.

Is there change? Yep, sure is and of particular note is the occurrence of abrupt "steps" in Tasmania and even more so in WA. Last I knew, nobody had come up with a satisfactory explanation for that beyond noting that the timing does align with changes in the earth's temperature trend, but not with absolute temperature as such, which suggests something complex is going on.

As for Tim Flannery's comments however, the data never did support the idea that reservoirs would never fill again unless brought about intentionally (that is, overuse of the water). The "inside" informal consensus is he's probably someone who just doesn't like big dams on rivers for unrelated reasons eg wilderness, ecology, scenery etc.

Yep like below for WA, streamflow.​

This is from WA Water Corp website note how high Desalination is set to go even higher.

​

​

How climate change is impacting our water sources​

Water sources for our largest scheme, the Integrated Water Supply Scheme (IWSS) which supplies Perth, the Goldfields and Agricultural Region and some parts of the South West have changed dramatically. Water for the IWSS is now comprised of a combination of sources, including desalinated seawater, groundwater, groundwater replenishment and streamflow into dams.
Traditionally, Perth relied heavily on streamflow into our dams as a water source, but declining streamflow has meant dams now play a bigger role as storage reservoirs. The water in our dams is no longer just made up of inflows from rain. Groundwater and desalinated water are stored in these dams during periods of low demand so it is available when it is most needed in the hotter months.
HOW PERTH'S WATER SOURCES HAVE CHANGED

Perth's water sources at a glance​

In 2022-23 the breakdown of Perth's water sources (IWSS) consisted of:

28%

Desalination​

37%

Groundwater​

30%

Dams​

5%

Groundwater replenishment​

 

[sptrawler]

In the 1980's the W.A Government were aware of the reducing rainfall and started planning for the Kwinana and Binningup desal plants, plus increased the wall height of Harvey dam and connected the dams together with a pipeline.

Also the Harris river dam was built Water which can also be used to supplement the Integrated Water Supply Scheme which supplies Perth, Mandurah, the Goldfields, Harvey, Waroona and some other south west towns.

Now we are getting another desal plant at Alkimos, so obviously there is an expectation of continued drying in W.A. and thankfully the water authority is still a Govt Dept.

Meanwhile the East Coast has record floods, something is going on.

 

[farmerge]

In the 1980's the W.A Government were aware of the reducing rainfall and started planning for the Kwinana and Binningup desal plants, plus increased the wall height of Harvey dam and connected the dams together with a pipeline.

Also the Harris river dam was built Water which can also be used to supplement the Integrated Water Supply Scheme which supplies Perth, Mandurah, the Goldfields, Harvey, Waroona and some other south west towns.

Now we are getting another desal plant at Alkimos, so obviously there is an expectation of continued drying in W.A. and thankfully the water authority is still a Govt Dept.

Meanwhile the East Coast has record floods, something is going on.

Sadly, the current flooding here in WA is missing the coast, but the Eastern wheatbelt, goldfields and desert areas are getting some good falls.
Wouldn't say no to 20mm at the moment.

 

[IFocus]

Meanwhile the East Coast has record floods, something is going on.

As I keep saying all the drivers are known and discussed at length over on that surfing website, when Dominic Perrottet NSW premier stood up and said no one could have forecasted the NSW floods it was met by great mirth as it was discussed 6 months before by Craig and others.

By the way Craig Brokensha who does most of the forecasting accepts climate change science and the drivers often separating out weather events and events influenced by climate change.

BTW the gap between stuff from experts compared to the piffle offered up by the Murdoch press is so wide I don't normally comment any that often.