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Another great contribution.If you want to quote Tisdale as having a viewpoint worth considering then you should also understand what would make it credible.
So rather than obfuscate, explain how ENSO is contributing to global warming as Tisdale claims.
I did link to the Curry interview so please read it. Curry acknowledges a human influence on climate but, despite an abundance of information, seems unable to work out that it must have occurred since the Industrial Revolution and is increasing in pace today. Less forgivable is her unwillingness to point the finger at GHGs, and as mitigation being a solution.You made an assertion about Curry and energy conservation without providing any link to the interview.
I clearly state why Tisdale cannot be right. ENSO operates via energy transfers between the ocean and atmosphere. AGW is a completely different mechanism, and acts via energy transfers between our atmosphere and the rest of the galaxy. As ENSO is cyclical at decadal scales, if it transfers energy to the atmosphere then it must cool, However, the oceans are continuing to warm, and so is the atmosphere, through successive cycles. Irradiance does not explain this, but AGW does.When I questioned the closed systems statement you switched to saying without any proof that over decadel scales it approximates a enclosed system, again without any proof. Next, when I questioned that statement you switched to saying Tisdale didn't understand ENSO, again without any proof, and accused me of obfuscation.
I hoped that you might explain why you offered scientists as a defence of your assertions rather than science. It is a logically fallacious way to show that you are "only interested in the data and 'the science' " as you put it.You constantly belittle others comments, but are happy to make your own statements as if they are fact.
I read the Curry interview and all the comments underneath it.I did link to the Curry interview so please read it. Curry acknowledges a human influence on climate but, despite an abundance of information, seems unable to work out that it must have occurred since the Industrial Revolution and is increasing in pace today. Less forgivable is her unwillingness to point the finger at GHGs, and as mitigation being a solution.
You clearly stated Why Tisdale cannot be right?I clearly state why Tisdale cannot be right. ENSO operates via energy transfers between the ocean and atmosphere. AGW is a completely different mechanism, and acts via energy transfers between our atmosphere and the rest of the galaxy. As ENSO is cyclical at decadal scales, if it transfers energy to the atmosphere then it must cool, However, the oceans are continuing to warm, and so is the atmosphere, through successive cycles. Irradiance does not explain this, but AGW does.
Oh how noble of you!I occasionally explain how some of the points you make are not well reasoned, as in the case above where you use the fallacy of an argument from authority in quoting authors rather than their science.
How so? Curry has been consistently wrong in her commentaries and has never, ever, been able to show how her nameless "host of other reasons" can cause the warming that we experience. Curry has been so egregiously wrong in her commentaries that she remains one of many high profile scientists that the academic website The Conversation will no longer reference.I read the Curry interview and all the comments underneath it.
I see absolutely nothing wrong with the quote. It merely proves that unlike you, she keeps an open mind.
I did explain it. I suggest you tell me how it can be the case that the ENSO heat loss from oceans to the atmosphere still leads to warming oceans. As I said earlier, Tisdale does not understand the law of conservation of energy.You clearly stated Why Tisdale cannot be right?
You did nothing of the kind.
If it transfers energy to the atmosphere then it must be cool makes no sense. Does the it refer to enso? If so, how on earth can it be cool? its not a temperature is a pressure differential.
Aren't you "only interested in the data and 'the science' "?I fawn at your superior intelligence and outstanding knowledge.
What I find hard to follow, is the constantly upward price spiral of low lying water front property, is it because people don't believe the sea level rising or just don't care?Judith Curry's comments on sea level defy both the data and the underlying science.
If properties are not coastal, ie., subject to wave action, then anything a metre above present sea level won't have a problem for at least 50 years.What I find hard to follow, is the constantly upward price spiral of low lying water front property, is it because people don't believe the sea level rising or just don't care?
...and the growing fleet of Gulfstreams and Lear jets among the alarmist "elite".What I find hard to follow, is the constantly upward price spiral of low lying water front property, is it because people don't believe the sea level rising or just don't care?
Here is a good website, for predictive flooding.If properties are not coastal, ie., subject to wave action, then anything a metre above present sea level won't have a problem for at least 50 years.
This paper gives a good overview of wave action at coastal locations.
Unfortunately, the graph "shown Below" is is a global temperature versus Time graph.For those who want to keep an "open mind" on climate change, and choose to believe Judith Curry, here's just one of many examples that show it to be unwise:
"Sea level rise operates on very long timescales. And the manmade warming that we’ve seen so far, I don’t think is really contributing much to the sea level rise that we’ve observed so far. I mean, that’s just a much longer term processes. And even if we stopped emitting carbon dioxide today, the sea level rise would keep rising."
For about 100 years from 1850 - as shown below - there was little change in sea levels.
After that there were several step changes in the rate of rise:
So you just to help You, heres a graph from NOAA for a US coastal port that has data going back to 1930
The IPCC needs to check what it writes.The IPCC says:
Global mean sea level (GMSL) is rising (virtually certain) and accelerating (high confidence). The sum of glacier and ice sheet contributions is now the dominant source of GMSL rise (very high confidence). GMSL from tide gauges and altimetry observations increased from 1.4 mm yr–1 over the period 1901–1990 to 2.1 mm yr–1 over the period 1970–2015 to 3.2 mm yr–1 over the period 1993–2015 to 3.6 mm yr–1 over the period 2006–2015 (high confidence). The dominant cause of GMSL rise since 1970 is anthropogenic forcing (high confidence).
Judith Curry's comments on sea level defy both the data and the underlying science.
I don't even need to go to the "Climate Deniers Websites " for any of the above.Despite numerous problems associated with estimates of globally coherent, secular changes in sea level based on tide gauge records, we conclude that it is highly likely that sea level has been rising over the last 100 years There is no new evidence that would alter substantially the conclusions of earlier assess-ments regarding the rate of change Our judgement is that The average rate of rise over the last 100 years has been 1 0 2 0 mm yr '
There is no firm evidence ol accelerations in sea level rise during this centuiy (although there is some evidence that sea level rose faster in this century compared to the previous two centuries)
As to the possible causes and their specilic contributions to past sea level rise, the uncertainties are very large, particularly tor Antarctica However in general it appears that the observed rise can be explained by thermal expansion of the oceans and by the increased melting ol mountain glaciers and the margin ot the Greenland ice sheet From present data it is impossible to judge whether the Antarctic ice sheet as a whole is currently out of balance and is contributing, either positively or negatively, to changes in sea level
There will be many coastal areas where waves "break through" narrow coastal strips as the sea level rises, and significantly worsen the predicted scenarios.Here is a good website, for predictive flooding.
This is better.It does not mention sea level rise.
You quoted from a 30 year old IPCC Report.The IPCC needs to check what it writes.
Heres an extract from the Executive Summary of Chapter 9 of the IPCC.
You linked to a 30 year old IPCC Report.
Yeah, but at least I used actual data on sea level.This is better.
View attachment 132564
You linked to a 30 year old IPCC Report.
Your use of specific locations to make your points about sea level changes is called cherry picking.
I included several links to sea level rise. You clearly did not read them as they totally refuted Curry's claims.Yeah, but at least I used actual data on sea level.
That is an appalling level of ignorance given the links available to you, and suggestions made that you at least read the latest IPPC Report summaries.How did the IPCC come to a conclusion so different to the original.
As I said to Rob,Interesting
Interesting. Mull were you aware that report was so old ? Or was it just one of the references highlighted in the on line forums you visit.?
The clearest and potentially most disastrous evidence/consequence of accelerating global warming is the rapid melting of Arctic and Antarctic ice packs. Redrob thinks we may not see sea levels rises of more than a metre before 2100. But if global heating isn't brought under control quickly by drastically reducing GG emissions then there will be very rapid undermining of these ice shelves and land based ice mountains.
And that spells the end of our current civilisation as we know it.
One-third of Antarctic ice shelf area at risk of collapse as planet warms
Study shows highest warming scenario would put 34% of Antarctic's ice shelf area at risk of fracture and collapse from melting and run-off - including 67% of the Antarctic Peninsular ice shelf area. This would allow glaciers to flow freely into the sea causing sea level rise.www.sciencedaily.comIncreased frequency of extreme ice melting in Greenland raises global flood risk
Global warming has caused extreme ice melting events in Greenland to become more frequent and more intense over the past 40 years according to new research, raising sea levels and flood risk worldwide.www.sciencedaily.com
That is completely untrue.But as I said, the IPCC have changed their tune since whenever it was produced.
In fact the IPCC quote I referenced said "The sum of glacier and ice sheet contributions is now the dominant source of GMSL rise (very high confidence)."As to the "extreme melting " of the ice caps, Greenland etc, it would be noticed already in sea level rises.
True, but insignificant, as @basilio pointed out above. Volcanoes do not actually represent the mechanisms which cause glacial calving.As for the melting of the East Antarctic Ice sheet, the fact that there are 138 Volcanoes of varying levels of activity under Antarctica might give a clue as to why at least some of the melting might be natural ( see PBS ).
Another completely false claim. Here's the chart overlaying satelite data:it is also instructive to note that any change in the IPCC sea level rises has come since they used satellite data to detect the sea level rather than tide data. The tide data shows little accelleration
Crap. They have changed their tune.That is completely untrue.
What was presented in the first IPCC climate report was accurate according to the information at the time. It was consistent with what I quoted from the latest IPCC Report on sea levels as stated at post #10025 where 2 step changes in the rate of rise were quantified since 1990.
The surface of the solid Earth is continually adjusting and responding to external (e.g. atmospheric loading, tidal loading) and internal (mantle flow) forces exerted upon it. Whilst many of the short-term elastic readjustments are tangible (e.g. tectonic plate friction and resultant earthquakes), the Earth is still trying to reach isostatic equilibrium in response to deglaciation of the Pleistocene Ice Sheets that occupied a significant proportion of the northern hemisphere and the advance and retreat cycles of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The process of ongoing viscoelastic relaxation in response to this redistribution of (specifically) ice (glacio-isostasy) and water (hydro-isostasy) on the Earth’s surface is termed ‘glacial isostatic adjustment’ (henceforth ‘GIA’). Regions located both inside and outside former ice sheet centres are still responding to the deglaciation of many of the northern hemisphere ice complexes (Laurentide, Cordilleran, Innuitian, Eurasian and the British-Irish) that concluded several thousand years ago.
I never mentioned global calving, I never mentioned the mechanism.In fact the IPCC quote I referenced said "The sum of glacier and ice sheet contributions is now the dominant source of GMSL rise (very high confidence)."
True, but insignificant, as @basilio pointed out above. Volcanoes do not actually represent the mechanisms which cause glacial calving.
Which part is a completely false claim? That the two sets of data don't match after 1990??Another completely false claim. Here's the chart overlaying satelite data:
I don't see any point in taking this any further,.
Here's a link to a climate scientist's blog that said pretty much what I did. In short, what Tisdale claimed defied the laws of physics.When I questioned the closed systems statement you switched to saying without any proof that over decadel scales it approximates a enclosed system, again without any proof.
Next, when I questioned that statement you switched to saying Tisdale didn't understand ENSO, again without any proof, and accused me of obfuscation.
You are just as guilty of all the sins you blame others.
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