Resisting Climate Hysteria

[mullokintyre]

I am not sure why you posted the list of the largest fires of the 21 st century.
I mean we are only 21 years into it for starters.
Are you suggesting that this list of the largest fires in this century proves that the planet earth is burning to a crisp?
Back in 1938-1939 during the infamous black Friday, there were 200,000 kms burned in Victoria alone.
In 1974/75 burnt an estimated 1,170,00 square kilometres throughout Australia.
The black Thursday fires way back in 1851 burnt out nearly a quarter of Victoria, some 5 million hectares.
Before Australia was inhabited, and the land was extensively covered in bush, I can imagine that fires once started may well have burnt massively large tracts of land, as there were no CFA, no water bombers,no fire suppressants, no firebreaks etc.
There is a reason Dorothea Mackeller struck such a resonant chord with earlier Australians when she wrote My Country " I love a sunburnt country, a land of sweeping plains, Of ragged mountain ranges, Of drought and flooding rains".

But i guess a female poet of the 1920's is probably irrelevant in this digital age.
Mick

 

[rederob]

like Mickey Mouse?

No peer reviewed papers from this name so you clearly do not understand science.

top polluting countries

America, with 4.25% of the population has contributed nearly one third of all CO2:

only the USA are reducing there omissions. the rest are not

America has sold large swathes of its production to China, as have most nations. So yes, America does not need as much energy as previously because it has exported this burden.

the champaign socialists and other idiot left continue to ignore this and blame the cows in the USA and Australia for the worlds rising gases

The IPCC are representative of all nations, so that's a fail.

no try again

No need to. You are a long way behind on battery technologies.

now that you have tried to cherry pick my post and attempt to sound intelligent. try addressing the rest?

I won't be responding to you again as your points are not rational.

 

[Investoradam]

No peer reviewed papers from this name so you clearly do not understand science.

‘Mickey Mouse’ scratched from 11,000 scientists declaring global climate crisis - National | Globalnews.ca

The scientists behind the letter say a few "invalid" names among the 11,000 signatures do not diminish their very real warning.

globalnews.ca

no real names on any peer reviewed papers. where are the names of those so called 30 thousand and some of there work?

America, with 4.25% of the population has contributed nearly one third of all CO2: View attachment 133079

America has sold large swathes of its production to China, as have most nations. So yes, America does not need as much energy as previously because it has exported this burden.

China's new coal power plant capacity in 2020 more than three times rest of world's: study

China put 38.4 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired power capacity into operation in 2020, according to new international research, more than three times the amount built elsewhere around the world and potentially undermining its short-term climate goals.

www.reuters.com

China Is Planning 43 New Coal-Fired Power Plants. Can It Still Keep Its Promises to Cut Emissions?

China built three times more new coal power capacity as all other countries in the world combined in 2020.

time.com

second time Ive posted this links and you have continued to ignore them and some how the rest of the world is in a climate crisis due to farting cows

COâ emissions

How much COâ does the world emit? Which countries emit the most?

ourworldindata.org

look at the decline of omissions of the western world and the boom of china! all those hundreds of new coal fired power stations that are being built or yet to be built?
remember the world is in a climate crisis and its going to end of we dont act!

The IPCC are representative of all nations, so that's a fail.

like who? and where are some of these peer reviewed reports! out site of just claims of nameless champaign socilists

No need to. You are a long way behind on battery technologies.

I won't be responding to you again as your points are not rational.

you still haven't answered any of my questions or provided any proof to them

just attempt to deflect

 

[mullokintyre]

At the last federal election, there were more than a few experts who got the result spectacularly wrong.
The rednecks of Queensland were blamed for their dinosaur views on coal etc.
If you look at some of the political responses its not hard to see why they distrusted the anti fossil fuel meme.
The Queensland government, along with all the other state governments, have demanded that the federal government get a net zero plan together.
All the while, the Queensland government was making a motzah out of coal royalties.
And lying through their back teeth about what they going to do with it.
From Todays OZ

Coalmining towns are yet to see a single dollar from a $100m regional infrastructure fund announced by former treasurer Jackie Trad almost three years ago.
In early 2019, the Palaszczuk government promised to lock in the royalty rate it charges coalmining companies for three years in exchange for $70m to build infrastructure in towns where they operate.

The group of 27 mining companies, including BHP and Peabody, signed on to the deal, which allowed them to contribute a fraction of the cash they would have been paid under a royalty hike.
A board was appointed in July, chaired by former Townsville mayor and ALP candidate Tony Mooney, but no infrastructure projects have been announced.

Mining giant Glencore, Kestrel Coal Resources and South32 all have representatives on the board, which has met “several times” along with the manager of Hay Point Coal Terminal, south of Mackay.

A spokeswoman from the state development department said: “Announcements about successful projects funded under round one are expected to be made shortly”.

As the deadline looms for the three-year freeze, which expires at the end of this financial year, Treasurer Cameron Dick is yet to decide whether he will hike royalties in the next budget.

As usual, its what they do rather than what they say that shows where they really stand.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Looking at the latest 8 day BOM forecast, it seems that this year, much of Eastern Australia will be concerned with flooding rather than bushfires. The BOM have a history of overstating rain events, but with catchment areas still fairly wet, so SES and other volunteer orgs will be run off their feet. May have to turn the auto sprinklers again.

i

 

[basilio]

Looking at the latest 8 day BOM forecast, it seems that this year, much of Eastern Australia will be concerned with flooding rather than bushfires. The BOM have a history of overstating rain events, but with catchment areas still fairly wet, so SES and other volunteer orgs will be run off their feet. May have to turn the auto sprinklers again.

iView attachment 133280

Yeah. Climate change and La Nina are here with a vengance. The extra moisture in the atmosphere associated with higher temperatures means that rain events will be more intense. This is happening all around the world
The La Nina factor adds another layer of short term climate affects to the mix.

Sharp rises in large-scale, long-duration precipitation extremes with higher temperatures over Japan - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

The intensity of extreme precipitation has been projected to increase with increasing air temperature according to the thermodynamic Clausius–Clapeyron (C-C) relation. Over the last decade, observational studies have succeeded in demonstrating the scaling relationship between extreme...

www.nature.com

 

[mullokintyre]

Yeah. Climate change and La Nina are here with a vengance. The extra moisture in the atmosphere associated with higher temperatures means that rain events will be more intense. This is happening all around the world
The La Nina factor adds another layer of short term climate affects to the mix.

Sharp rises in large-scale, long-duration precipitation extremes with higher temperatures over Japan - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

The intensity of extreme precipitation has been projected to increase with increasing air temperature according to the thermodynamic Clausius–Clapeyron (C-C) relation. Over the last decade, observational studies have succeeded in demonstrating the scaling relationship between extreme...

www.nature.com

La Nina is not a result of Climate changes, its been around a long time.
The Enso oscillations that are the driver for El Nino/La Nina events are reasonably well understood.
However, I have yet to read a definitive proof that CO2 is driving the atmospheric changes in the trade winds that create the synoptic imbalance.
The article in Nature you highlighted says

However, the effect of synoptic patterns on the scaling relationship remains unclear.

Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Tropical Cyclone Paddy has formed to the North West of Broome.
Unlikely to affect AUS as its tracking south west.
Didn't get a much warning about this one.
BOM may or may not get the number of cyclones right, but forecasting when and where they occur , and what their track might be, is still very much a short term affair.
Mick

 

[basilio]

La Nina is not a result of Climate changes, its been around a long time.
The Enso oscillations that are the driver for El Nino/La Nina events are reasonably well understood.
However, I have yet to read a definitive proof that CO2 is driving the atmospheric changes in the trade winds that create the synoptic imbalance.
The article in Nature you highlighted says

Mick

Never suggested (or meant to suggest) that La Nina is a result of climate change. It is just another factor that adds a layer to steadily increasing temperatures caused by excessive human production of CC gases.

What is interesting is that historically a La Nina event would see a recognisable drop in temperatures . However the underlying rise in global temperatures has meant that this doesn't really happen. Temperatures stay roughly the same. Global Heating is, in effect, cancelling the cooling effects of La Nina.

However the impact of increased evaporation caused by the higher temperatures means that the rain events triggered by La Nina now have far more moisture in the atmosphere to turn into floods.

In relation to the Nature article. It's basic tenant was that increasing global temperatures, AKA Global Warming, are behind the intense rainfall events that are now occuring in Japan and elsewhere . There is simply a lot more moisture in the atmosphere

 

[mullokintyre]

Never suggested (or meant to suggest) that La Nina is a result of climate change. It is just another factor that adds a layer to steadily increasing temperatures caused by excessive human production of CC gases.

What is interesting is that historically a La Nina event would see a recognisable drop in temperatures . However the underlying rise in global temperatures has meant that this doesn't really happen. Temperatures stay roughly the same. Global Heating is, in effect, cancelling the cooling effects of La Nina.

However the impact of increased evaporation caused by the higher temperatures means that the rain events triggered by La Nina now have far more moisture in the atmosphere to turn into floods.

In relation to the Nature article. It's basic tenant was that increasing global temperatures, AKA Global Warming, are behind the intense rainfall events that are now occuring in Japan and elsewhere . There is simply a lot more moisture in the atmosphere

When you say a drop in Temperatures are you referring to sea surface temperatures ( as in this National Geographic article ) or are you referring to a local air temperature or earths 'average Temperature'.?
Mick

 

[basilio]

Take your pick Mull.

 

[mullokintyre]

No you need to take your pick.
You stated

What is interesting is that historically a La Nina event would see a recognisable drop in temperatures

According to the deffiniton of La Nina

La Niña is the name given to the phenomenon where the trade winds become stronger, enhancing the warm pool in the western Pacific and causing the sea surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Pacific to become cooler with above normal rainfall in the west compared to eastern Pacific.

So which temperatures are you talking about when you say there is a drop in temperatures that is no longer there?
The SST in central and Eastern Pacific have decreased, and the Western Pacific SST's have increased, otherwise they would not have called the La Nina.
I am willing to be convinced if you can show me some data that determines that in the past Lan Nina events global air or sea temperatures have changed with the La Nina.
Mick

 

[basilio]

Sea surface temperatures in La Nina/El Nina areas will fluctuate according to the cycle. Having said that I was noting that the overall ocean and land temperatures are increasing at what is a historically very fast rate. That reality is a large factor in increasing the rate of evaporation and the capacity of the atmosphere to hold larger volumes of moist air.

There is an excellent analysis of the impact of La Nina/El Nino by Berkley Earth.

Pin It ENSO Temperature Trends​

Berkeley Earth estimates of the change in average annual global surface air temperature (1966–2015) show that much of the short-term variability in the upward temperature trend is produced by the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a 2–7 year climate pattern in the tropical Pacific. Average air temperature is affected by many different factors, including: anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming (AGW) that is mainly caused by CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels; the 11-year solar sunspot cycle; sulfate aerosols from volcanic eruptions; and the periodic ENSO.

ENSO Temperature Trends

Examines the science and arguments of global warming skepticism. Common objections like 'global warming is caused by the sun', 'temperature has changed naturally in the past' or 'other planets are warming too' are examined to see what the science really says.

skepticalscience.com

 

[basilio]

Overview of the impact of natural and human factors in Global Warming.
The Natural Variability line includes the La Nina/El Nino influences

List of climate change controversies - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[mullokintyre]

Sea surface temperatures in La Nina/El Nina areas will fluctuate according to the cycle. Having said that I was noting that the overall ocean and land temperatures are increasing at what is a historically very fast rate. That reality is a large factor in increasing the rate of evaporation and the capacity of the atmosphere to hold larger volumes of moist air.

There is an excellent analysis of the impact of La Nina/El Nino by Berkley Earth.

​

Pin It ENSO Temperature Trends​

Berkeley Earth estimates of the change in average annual global surface air temperature (1966–2015) show that much of the short-term variability in the upward temperature trend is produced by the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a 2–7 year climate pattern in the tropical Pacific. Average air temperature is affected by many different factors, including: anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming (AGW) that is mainly caused by CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels; the 11-year solar sunspot cycle; sulfate aerosols from volcanic eruptions; and the periodic ENSO.

ENSO Temperature Trends

Examines the science and arguments of global warming skepticism. Common objections like 'global warming is caused by the sun', 'temperature has changed naturally in the past' or 'other planets are warming too' are examined to see what the science really says.

skepticalscience.com

Yes thats fine, but you still have not answered the question I posed, namely what temperature were you talking about when you said that temperatures historically drop, or what sources you might have to support whichever temperature to which you refer.

The Berkeley statement whilst admitting there are a number of known factors affecting average air temperatures, makes a rather curious statement around the word "mainly".
I read it to say that the word "mainly" refers to the amount of anthropogenic warming caused by fossil fuels, not that overall air temperatures are affected mainly by fossil fuels.
A very fine but most important distinction. I could be wrong, but I seem to recall Stephen Macintyre of Climate Audit asking that question of Berkeley and got no answer.
I will try and hunt down the article.
Mick
Mick

 

[basilio]

A very fine but most important distinction. I could be wrong, but I seem to recall Stephen Macintyre of Climate Audit asking that question of Berkeley and got no answer.
I will try and hunt down the article.
Mick
Mick

I wouldn't worry about it Mick. The overall question is the reality of global heating and the overwhelming causation by human produced Greenhouse gases. That reality has been well established both empirically and through theoretical constructs around the impact of increased greenhouse gases on heat retention on our communal home.

Our concern now is how do we control and hopefully reverse the process. Splitting hairs in various rabbit warrens is just a distraction isn't it ?

 

[rederob]

Yes thats fine, but you still have not answered the question I posed, namely what temperature were you talking about when you said that temperatures historically drop, or what sources you might have to support whichever temperature to which you refer.

You said in this thread that you like to use data and science, yet seldom do so.
Here's the data confirming what @basilio referred to:

The Berkeley statement whilst admitting there are a number of known factors affecting average air temperatures, makes a rather curious statement around the word "mainly".

Actually it made a very clear statement, and you did not quite grasp it ...

I read it to say that the word "mainly" refers to the amount of anthropogenic warming caused by fossil fuels, not that overall air temperatures are affected mainly by fossil fuels.

No, it named different factors that affect average air temperature, and never mentioned an "amount".

 

[Joules MM1]

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The Arctic is warming three times as fast as the rest of the world.​

Arctic Peoples are seeing their lives and livelihoods altered, and they're finding ways to adapt.

The Arctic - Our changing home

The Arctic is warming three times as fast as the rest of the world. Arctic Peoples are seeing their lives and livelihoods altered, and they're finding ways to adapt.

arctic-council.org

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[Investoradam]

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The Arctic is warming three times as fast as the rest of the world.​

Arctic Peoples are seeing their lives and altered, and they're finding ways to adapt.

The Arctic - Our changing home

The Arctic is warming three times as fast as the rest of the world. Arctic Peoples are seeing their lives and livelihoods altered, and they're finding ways to adapt.

arctic-council.org

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the way people the doom dayers carry on you'd almost think its never happened before!​

​

​

Arctic Sea Ice Is Growing Faster Than Before​

Arctic Sea Ice Is Growing Faster Than Before, But There's A Catch

A recent study by NASA found that sea ice is growing faster during the winter months today than it did decades ago. This increased growth of sea ice has helped to slow down the overall reduction in Arctic sea ice and delayed an ice-free Arctic.

www.forbes.com

Evidence of ancient rainforests found in Antarctica​

When dinosaurs roamed the Earth 90 million years ago, the planet was much warmer, including Antarctica at the South Pole. But in a surprising twist, researchers have discovered evidence that Antarctica also supported a swampy rainforest at the time, according to a new study.
Researchers captured a slice of the seafloor using a drill rig aboard a polar research vessel on West Antarctica's Amundsen Sea between February and March in 2017. The sediment core sample was taken near the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers.
CT scans of the sediment core revealed pristine samples of forest soil, pollen, spores and even root systems so well preserved that they could identify cell structures. The soil included examples of pollen from the first flowering plants found this close to the South Pole.

Evidence of ancient rainforests found in Antarctica

Researchers have discovered evidence that Antarctica had a swampy rainforest 90,000 years ago thanks to sediment cores filled with pristine soil and root systems that preserved the plant cells.

edition.cnn.com

The Green Sahara Of The Past​

Last Updated on Tue, 30 Nov 2021 | Tropical Rainforest
Evidence from a whole range of sources shows that only a few thousand years ago, the climate of the whole Sahara region was very different from now. Animal bones in the desert sands show that giraffes and elephants once walked where there is now no vegetation and no water. The people who lived in the central Sahara at that time even recorded the animals they saw in rock paintings and engravings, vividly illustrating just how completely this place has changed in a few thousand years. A more detailed picture of the landscape at that time comes from pollen which has ended up preserved in the dried muds of old lake beds and empty river channels. It reveals a mosaic of scrublands, open woodlands and grasslands, consisting of plant species that now only grow hundreds of kilometers farther south. Even the extremely arid core of the Sahara, which nowadays gets less than 25 mm of rainfall a year, had a dense vegetation cover capable of sustaining cattle-herding and localized wheat-growing. All the evidence shows that the moistness of the Saharan climate at that time far exceeded the alternative "green Sahara" state of the present-day world. Perhaps we should honor the memory of this remarkable phase in climate history with the upper case "Green" Sahara, to distinguish it from the merely "green" Sahara.

The Green Sahara Of The Past - Tropical Rainforest

Evidence from a whole range of sources shows that only a few thousand years ago, the climate of the whole Sahara region was very different from now. Animal

www.climate-policy-watcher.org

 

[rederob]

the way people the doom dayers carry on you'd almost think its never happened before!

Humans were never part of the equation.
I guess that's an issue which is beyond you.