Resisting Climate Hysteria

trainspotter · 8 November 2013

High quality measurements of (near)-global sea level have been made since late 1992 by satellite altimeters, in particular, TOPEX/Poseidon (launched August, 1992), Jason-1 (launched December, 2001) and Jason-2 (launched June, 2008). This data has shown a more-or-less steady increase in Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) of around 3.2 ± 0.4 mm/year over that period. This is more than 50% larger than the average value over the 20th century. Whether or not this represents a further increase in the rate of sea level rise is not yet certain.

3.2MM PER YEAR !!!!!!!! 3.2mm / annum = 312 years to rise one metre ?

http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html

No wait ... down the bottom of the page ... the ocean expands and contracts seasonally

trainspotter · 8 November 2013

wayneL said:
So you are suggesting "direct action"?

Ooo all those pseudo-Keynesian economists won't like that at all!

“Given the same amount of intelligence, timidity will do a thousand times more damage than audacity”

Just think of the betting odds we could obtain from the SP Bookies !

But like you say the Keynesian economists would be asking for tax increases during this crisis to curb inflation.

basilio · 8 November 2013

This has taken such a droll turn hasn't it ? Far more fun ( and safer !) to speculate on asteriods, space junk and fantasy.

_________________________________________________
Re the increase in sea levels Trainspotter.

Yep the oceans have risen by 3.2 +/- .04 mm a year as shown by the graph on the page you referenced. The oceans do rise and fall each year as well - but the overall steady increase still holds.

The projections for the next 100years and beyond recognize the influence of

1) Increasing warmth in the oceans from CC which will cause water to expand.
2) Reductions on Arctic/Antarctic ice levels again caused by CC which will deliver substantially more water into the oceans.

A later graph in the same website shows a range of current projections for 2100.
After all that was how this current discussion started wasn't it ? Results of melting all the ice when Global temperatures increase by a couple of degrees.

http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_proj_21st.html

trainspotter · 8 November 2013

basilio said:
This has taken such a droll turn hasn't it ? Far more fun ( and safer !) to speculate on asteriods, space junk and fantasy.

_________________________________________________
Re the increase in sea levels Trainspotter.

Yep the oceans have risen by 3.2 +/- .04 mm a year as shown by the graph on the page you referenced. The oceans do rise and fall each year as well - but the overall steady increase still holds.

The projections for the next 100years and beyond recognize the influence of

1) Increasing warmth in the oceans from CC which will cause water to expand.
2) Reductions on Arctic/Antarctic ice levels again caused by CC which will deliver substantially more water into the oceans.

A later graph in the same website shows a range of current projections for 2100.
After all that was how this current discussion started wasn't it ? Results of melting all the ice when Global temperatures increase by a couple of degrees.

http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_proj_21st.html

I would not say droll in the least !

We've become so used to change that stability seems like a quaint novelty.

So we'll no doubt find it quaint to discover that things might be falling on us from the sky with additional regularity over the next 100 years.

You might have only just got over the news that an asteroid might -- just might -- hit us in 2032.

But now, as The New York Times reports, scientists believe we should get used to the idea that asteroids might hit us every decade or two.

It points to two research papers published in Nature, in which a group of scientists wonder about the future.
Both papers were stimulated by the asteroid that struck Chelyabinsk in Russia earlier this year.
It seems that current warning systems focus on asteroids that are at least 1 kilometer wide.
However, Edward Lu, a former NASA space shuttle astronaut who now is launching a private endeavor called B612 to spot the slightly smaller asteroids, believes radical plans and better telescopes are needed.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-17852_3-5...rth-for-more-asteroid-strikes-say-scientists/

Sounds like fantasy to me ! Ummmmm wait a minute ...

ASTRONOMERS have revised their estimates of asteroids capable of hitting the earth, saying there could be 10 times more than previously thought.

Researchers who reanalysed records of meteor strikes, in the aftermath of the spectacular Chelyabinsk explosion in Russia early this year, have found a mismatch in telescope sightings of asteroids and impacts picked up by low-frequency sound detectors.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/hig...de-asteroid-risk/story-e6frgcjx-1226754418777

The Chelyabinsk meteor, which struck Russia in February, is estimated to have been less than 20m across. Yet it exploded with the force of 40 Hiroshima bombs and produced a flash 30 times brighter than the sun.

It hospitalised about a thousand people, mainly injured by broken windows, with some also superficially burnt by the 30km-high explosion.

Yeppers ... pure fantasy

basilio · 8 November 2013

Oops trainspotter.

My reference to fantasy was the earlier post by Wayne on Nibiru.
Yeah asteriods are a risk. They should certainly be considered, monitored and in a worst case scenario "something done about them " (Exactly what ? xxxxxx if I know)

But to bring us back to the topic of this thread in a very relevant way.

The publics imagination is caught by the thought of an asteroid hit and the devastation this would cause. The best knowledge to date (and it changes) is that we are still dealing with small possibilities. But if we balance the devastation that would be cause by an asteriod against a small chance it might happen we would still want to do whatever it took to reduce that risk - wouldn't we ?

Now why is it that such a risk management approach is not appreciated with regard to CC by so many people ? Other issues perhaps ?

trainspotter · 8 November 2013

basilio said:
Oops trainspotter.

My reference to fantasy was the earlier post by Wayne on Nibiru.
Yeah asteriods are a risk. They should certainly be considered, monitored and in a worst case scenario "something done about them " (Exactly what ? xxxxxx if I know)

But to bring us back to the topic of this thread in a very relevant way.

The publics imagination is caught by the thought of an asteroid hit and the devastation this would cause. The best knowledge to date (and it changes) is that we are still dealing with small possibilities. But if we balance the devastation that would be cause by an asteriod against a small chance it might happen we would still want to do whatever it took to reduce that risk - wouldn't we ?

Now why is it that such a risk management approach is not appreciated with regard to CC by so many people ? Other issues perhaps ?

Oooops basilio ... Nibiru is a reality and not a fantasy. A large rock hitting Earth is a distinct possibility as per what happened in Russia. This one was only 20 metres wide !! Oh dear ... imagine one 100 metres wide?

Risk management in place already basilio ... how many countries have signed up for the Kyoto protocol?

Red means NO ... Green means YES ... Purple means Parties with no binding targets in the second period, which previously had targets.

macca · 8 November 2013

I thought the last big meteorite caused an ice age and wiped out the dinosaurs, maybe if we get more meteors we will all freeze to death. Damned if we do and damned if we don't

basilio · 8 November 2013

Oooops basilio ... Nibiru is a reality and not a fantasy. A large rock hitting Earth is a distinct possibility as per what happened in Russia. This one was only 20 metres wide !! Oh dear ... imagine one 100 metres wide?

Can we try this one again ?

I have no problem with discussions about possible asteroid collisions with earth. But Nibiru seems to be just cracked nonsense - or so the discussion at Wikipedia goes.

The Nibiru cataclysm is a supposed disastrous encounter between the Earth and a large planetary object (either a collision or a near-miss) which certain groups believe will take place in the early 21st century. Believers in this doomsday event usually refer to this object as Planet X or Nibiru. The idea that a planet-sized object will collide with or pass by Earth in the near future is not supported by any scientific evidence and has been rejected as pseudoscience by astronomers and planetary scientists.[1]

The idea was first put forward in 1995 by Nancy Lieder,[2][3] founder of the website ZetaTalk. Lieder describes herself as a contactee with the ability to receive messages from extra-terrestrials from the Zeta Reticuli star system through an implant in her brain. She states that she was chosen to warn mankind that the object would sweep through the inner Solar System in May 2003 (though that date was later abandoned) causing Earth to undergo a pole shift that would destroy most of humanity. The prediction has subsequently spread beyond Lieder's website and has been embraced by numerous Internet doomsday groups, most of which linked the event to the 2012 phenomenon.

Scientific rejection

Astronomers reject the idea of Nibiru, and have made efforts to inform the public that there is no threat to Earth.[22] They point out that such an object so close to Earth would be easily visible to the naked eye. A planet such as Nibiru would create noticeable effects in the orbits of the outer planets.[23] Some counter this by claiming that the object has been concealed behind the Sun for several years, though this would be geometrically impossible.[14] Most photographs showing "Nibiru" by the Sun are in fact of lens flares, false images of the Sun created by reflections within the lens.[24]

Astronomer Mike Brown notes that if this object's orbit were as described, it would only have lasted in the Solar System for a million years or so before Jupiter expelled it, and that there is no way another object's magnetic field could have such an effect on Earth.[25] Lieder's assertions that the approach of Nibiru would cause the Earth's rotation to stop or its axis to shift violate the laws of physics.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nibiru_cataclysm

But hey why should we spoil a good story with anything scientists have to say ?

basilio · 8 November 2013

Well chasing this particular bunny down the worm holes of space leads us to ever more exciting wonders.

That font of all knowledge (the internet no less) has thrown up the following. Might have something to do with Nibiru - but lets pretend it does anyway shall we? Don't want to be party poopers do we?

This particular You Tube video has had 448,770 view since Sept 2 2013 Certainly must be close to the truth with all that following mustn't it ?

26 Mile Alien Mothership in our Solar System

DNA Fingerprint of God unseen forces science physics mysteries solved revealed mind over matter spirit world sound light universe history truth earth mysteries of life mathematics placebo effect healing signs and symbols occult ancient sightings the matrix is real holographic intelligence sacred geometry quantum physics illusion of reality new paradigm 2012 shamanism cleansing mother earth climatic disaster native american change Extreme Weather (and it continues for another 1000 words)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83v5Rgeu2Yc

trainspotter · 8 November 2013

basilio said:
Can we try this one again ?

I have no problem with discussions about possible asteroid collisions with earth. But Nibiru seems to be just cracked nonsense - or so the discussion at Wikipedia goes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nibiru_cataclysm

But hey why should we spoil a good story with anything scientists have to say ?

Nibiru may refer to:

Nibiru (Babylonian astronomy), a technical term in Babylonian astronomy
Nibiru, a pseudoscientific planetary object described by Zecharia Sitchin
Nibiru cataclysm, a supposed impending disastrous encounter between Earth and a large astronomical object
Nibiru Sociedad Astronomica (Nibiru Astronomical Society), the astronomy group at the National Autonomous University of Mexico
Nibiru: Age of Secrets, a computer adventure game released in 2005
Nibiru, a planet in Star Trek

So a 17 metre asteroid hits earths atmosphere and causes an explosion equivalent to 40 Hiroshima bombs and produced a flash 30 times brighter than the sun and you are pooh poohing it as fantasy? I could follow what WayneL was alluding to?

Mr Bolden told US lawmakers that prayer was all that the US or anyone could currently do about unknown asteroids and meteors that may be on a collision course with Earth.
An asteroid estimated to be have been about 55 feet (17 metres) in diameter exploded on Feb 15 over Chelyabinsk, Russia, generating shock waves that shattered windows and damaged buildings. More than 1,500 people were injured.
Later that day, a larger, unrelated asteroid discovered last year passed about 17,200 miles (27,681 km) from Earth, closer than the network of television and weather satellites that ring the planet.
The events "serve as evidence that we live in an active solar system with potentially hazardous objects passing through our neighborhood with surprising frequency," said Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson, a Texas Democrat.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/9943048/Nasas-advice-on-asteroid-hitting-Earth-pray.html

AS for the youtube video you must be a crackpot to believe CC .... ooops I mean Niburu has anything to do with that !!

You asked for what? A risk management approach and I posted up how many countries have signed up for the Kyoto protocol. WELL ??????? There's your risk management approach !!!!!!! Something IS being done ???? What more do you want basilio ??? Everyone to go back to horse and cart and shut down major industries cause the ocean has risen 3.2mm and temperature has risen 0.06 degrees in 20 freaking years ???????

explod · 9 November 2013

So much garbage on this thread and a conflicted Monitor to boot.

The earth has been cooling for 5 billion years then suddenly with the advent of the industrial age it is warming or at least in a holding pattern.

There have been no tadpoles at Hawkesdale West since the drought of 68/9

Logique · 9 November 2013

Using the same methods, they won on Tasmania's economy, the vehicle was the forest industries, which this article summarizes very well: http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/...ts/locking_up_tasmanias_forests_and_the_jobs/ Tasmania still struggles to recover.

Thus encouraged, they're now coming after the national economy, this time the vehicle is AGW.

wayneL · 9 November 2013

explod said:
So much garbage on this thread and a conflicted Monitor to boot.

The earth has been cooling for 5 billion years then suddenly with the advent of the industrial age it is warming or at least in a holding pattern.

There have been no tadpoles at Hawkesdale West since the drought of 68/9

I didn't realize your abilities Plod, such hidden talent. Very few people on the planet can fit so many logical/argumentative fallacies into so few words.

wayneL · 10 November 2013

Typhoon Haiyan hyped.

The Pravda network (ABC BBC Grauniad etc) have been hyping Haiyan as the strongest storm ever recorded.

A big storm, but apparently not the biggest, or anywhere near it. Still sorting fact from fiction, but don't be fooled by the alarmists.

IFocus · 10 November 2013

wayneL said:
Typhoon Haiyan hyped.

The Pravda network (ABC BBC Grauniad etc) have been hyping Haiyan as the strongest storm ever recorded.

A big storm, but apparently not the biggest, or anywhere near it. Still sorting fact from fiction, but don't be fooled by the alarmists.

Do you have a link last I heard quoted was largest in X amount of years

sails · 10 November 2013

IFocus said:
Do you have a link last I heard quoted was largest in X amount of years

Even if it was X number of years - what caused a worse storm X number of years ago?

We are not stupid. There have always been bad storms long before industrialisation. It's a shame AGW extremists try to use fear of natural disasters to further their cause of taking people's hard earned.

jimmmaaay · 10 November 2013

wayneL said:
Typhoon Haiyan hyped.

The Pravda network (ABC BBC Grauniad etc) have been hyping Haiyan as the strongest storm ever recorded.

A big storm, but apparently not the biggest, or anywhere near it. Still sorting fact from fiction, but don't be fooled by the alarmists.

It is the biggest storm in recorded history to strike Philippines. There is no question about that, that is fact. I have lived there for seven years, and I can tell you this happens every year. It just depends where it hits as to the severity of damage. Look up Typhoon Ondoy and Milenyo. I lived in Philippines through those storms, and I can tell you its no small issue that only 'alarmists' hype. During Ondoy specifically, i was stranded inside my apartment for 10 days with no food as the water reached 3m deep in the streets over 80% of the entire metro (which is almost as big as Sydney in land area, and approximately 15mil residents), approx. 50,000 dead. During Milenyo I got stranded on Boracay island for three weeks, about 20,000 dead solely in Isabela, Quezon alone due to landslides.

Believe me, there is no hyping. These occurrences are just not widely publicized in the first world media, so people are not greatly aware. This is nothing to do with climate change, (lol) this is just an unfortunate event that occurs very regularly.

So, don't be fooled unless you've been there.

Julia · 10 November 2013

Good to have the perspective of someone who has lived there. Seems a bit off to me to be simply looking at this awful event in political terms. Thousands of people are probably dead, many more injured and homeless.

jimmmaaay · 11 November 2013

Very many no doubt, and people that can least afford such events. Once again it will be a huge humanitarian disaster that will go largely overlooked by the rest of the world because its not the eastern seaboard of the US.

But Filipinos will still bear it with a smile, because they are used to this and its just their nature. Still waiting to hear from a couple of people since comms are still down, but its looking like another severe depression is going to sweep through again within a week or two

edit: incidentally, thus far NZ has donated more aid than the US, while the Filipino govt has only chipped in $1.5m,..after a huge scandal outing the pilfering of billions by elected officials as thieves and launderers of US funds...shameful.

wayneL · 11 November 2013

My comments were not meant to trivialize this, which has been the effect. My apologies.

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