Reading 'Master The Markets' - Confused

[tech/a]

This one's volume pattern has sparked my interest so thought I would see what Tech (and anyone else) thinks. No in depth analysis required, just a choice.

1. already in...if so what bar and what direction.
2. go long... if so at close or next day open
3. go short.. if so at close or next day open
4. wait.

It's a daily chart.

View attachment 58416

BL

have a look at the 2 original charts I posted.
That's what I need to be able to make an opinion of this consolidation.

But without that from what I can currently see.

There is nothing which perks my interest in taking any trade in this consolidation.
Looks flat ----- ranging.

So 4.

How's your crude oil trade going.
Still in
Adding
Exited?

Back later

 

[tech/a]

Back to our first chart.

PAVs

1 st post was pretty spot with his analysis.
Bit of self doubt crept in!

BUT

I focus
Picked the critical bar and message in context with the landscape of the chart.
Experience shows.

CLICK TO EXPAND

 

[beachlife]

BL

have a look at the 2 original charts I posted.
That's what I need to be able to make an opinion of this consolidation.


How's your crude oil trade going.
Still in
Adding
Exited?

Back later

How about like this.

Still in with oil, no plans to add, using count back line trail, may extend target based on last swing range, but only if I get a close just shy of the current target.

 

[pavilion103]

Back to our first chart.

PAVs

1 st post was pretty spot with his analysis.
Bit of self doubt crept in!

BUT

I focus
Picked the critical bar and message in context with the landscape of the chart.
Experience shows.

CLICK TO EXPAND

View attachment 58422

I would now say that we are in an uptrend.

Price moving up on low volume. No supply.

Now we are at a resistance zone.
Time to watch price and volume closely.
So far there are no signs of supply as price pushes up on low volume.

I would simply be sitting back (still in the trade) and watching to see how it reacts around this area.
Until heavier volume begins to appear, price is free to continue to move up.

IF heavy volume appears THEN I will watch to see how price reacts following this.

But for now, I'm sitting back and doing nothing.

 

[Caveroute]

I would take profits and watch what happens next.

Your at the top of a potential TR, so it's an easy decision.

 

[tech/a]

I would now say that we are in an uptrend.

Price moving up on low volume. No supply.

Now we are at a resistance zone.
Time to watch price and volume closely.
So far there are no signs of supply as price pushes up on low volume.

I would simply be sitting back (still in the trade) and watching to see how it reacts around this area.
Until heavier volume begins to appear, price is free to continue to move up.

IF heavy volume appears THEN I will watch to see how price reacts following this.

But for now, I'm sitting back and doing nothing.

This is most important.

I would take profits and watch what happens next.

Your at the top of a potential TR, so it's an easy decision.

Yes you are correct also but if you added PAVs observation then your analysis would be on going rather than terminating.



To B/Ls Chart




Found this on another thread and believe it to be a very very important post which if read in conjunction with the ablility and skill of chart reading of which a proficiency in VSA would be a great avantage may well be a turning point for many!

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

[pavilion103]

One of the things that confused me early on was that I equated low volume in an uptrend like this one with low demand.

When I began to recognize low volume to mean little supply it opened my eyes.

When in a stock I look at two things in my trade management plan.
1. S/R levels
2. Volume
(More specifically, volume AT these levels).

When big volume appears at these levels I will do one of two things depending on a couple of factors.
1. Take profits
2. Wait and see how price reacts following the large volume (next few bars) and move stop tight.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

One of the things that confused me early on was that I equated low volume in an uptrend like this one with low demand.

When I began to recognize low volume to mean little supply it opened my eyes.

When in a stock I look at two things in my trade management plan.
1. S/R levels
2. Volume
(More specifically, volume AT these levels).

When big volume appears at these levels I will do one of two things depending on a couple of factors.
1. Take profits
2. Wait and see how price reacts following the large volume (next few bars) and move stop tight.

Interesting, so:

uptrend + sudden high volume into resistance zone = supply entering?
uptrend + low volume into resistance zone = no supply and demand winning?

I would have thought strong volume in an uptrend going into a resistance zone would be a sign its going to smash through it, especially if it's tested it before? I've been looking at it similar to you used to, low volume in uptrend = low demand.

I guess you can argue a case for anything that supports your bias, that's the part I find tricky.

 

[beachlife]

That would have been a nice entry Tech, its ncm on Thurs.

 

[Caveroute]

Yes you are correct also but if you added PAVs observation then your analysis would be on going rather than terminating.

Well as an observation you get a breakout pullback long on the next 2 bars, so you can have your cake and eat it too.

 

[pavilion103]

Interesting, so:

uptrend + sudden high volume into resistance zone = supply entering?
uptrend + low volume into resistance zone = no supply and demand winning?

I would have thought strong volume in an uptrend going into a resistance zone would be a sign its going to smash through it, especially if it's tested it before? I've been looking at it similar to you used to, low volume in uptrend = low demand.

I guess you can argue a case for anything that supports your bias, that's the part I find tricky.

I'm not suggesting that price will always just smash through resistance zones with no volume and continue up.

Certainly at strong resistance areas there will be a lot of potential sellers (often who look to get out at break-even). Under these circumstances if price is to continue higher, buyers need to be prepared to absorb the selling. A price range will form. It will be very important to watch these areas to determine whether buyers are prepared to absorb the selling. If buyers are, then price will be able to continue upwards. If not then the bears will win.

 

[Wysiwyg]

OK so we have 1 not sure
and 1 NO.

Next 10 bars

Click to expand


View attachment 58394

Price can also range and fall from here on too. The formation of accumulation where the lowest support is bounced off a number of times can and does happen. It is only 3 & 4 bars later in the following chart, when 1) resistance is hit with higher volume 2) bars close high and 3) new highs are made, that a confirmation of less supply is evident. That indicated to me that a 'possible' new trend is unfolding and further downside for the moment is less probable. Supply can enter at any moment and turn this chart's scenario the other way.

Live and present, one can only trade it as one sees it.

 

[rcctradings]

Am reading Anna Coulling's guide to VPA at present. So my interpretation of bar (6) is that buyers have had enough of the supply coming in at resistance. With the bar before bar (6), Anna says that there is an anomaly if the bar range doesn't match the higher volume (Wyckoff - cause/effect) so it means that bar before (6) on above average volume and narrower range was more supply pushing the price lower. Then bar (6) shows lower volume and a lower close validating the observation. The price will now move lower and possibly shake out all the remaining supply.

Now I am a novice with this stuff so that is my saving grace and zero embarrassment if I am completely wrong.

Thank you for mentioning Anna's book!
I found it, I'm reading it and she's so much clearer than Master the Markets, I can now see how trading is so much more relatable to normal capitalistic money making system. If indeed things happen as described, randomness and chaos are removed, and all our focus should be in learning, understanding and identifying the rules of the game(s) and we too can play with the professionals with some chances of winning some thing!

 

[Wysiwyg]

Thank you for mentioning Anna's book!
If indeed things happen as described, randomness and chaos are removed, and all our focus should be in learning, understanding and identifying the rules of the game(s) and we too can play with the professionals with some chances of winning some thing!

Yes, I have an Ipad now so e-books are the go. With regard to the highlighted part, I very much doubt that insiders would be on every security traded. The read is also not gospel in my opinion. As I mentioned in the previous post, chart analysis can change in just one bar.

 

[tech/a]

Yes, I have an Ipad now so e-books are the go. With regard to the highlighted part, I very much doubt that insiders would be on every security traded. The read is also not gospel in my opinion. As I mentioned in the previous post, chart analysis can change in just one bar.

I think also there is a lot to be said for the Marketing Aspect.
"Learn how to beat those nasty market manipulators".

Who cares who does what.
Can your analysis turn a consistent profit---all that matters.


Its pretty clear by now most here can read a chart with a few hints along the way.


The final chart was that the consensus is Bullish
So time to reveal all.

I hope these posts have helped.

Click to expand

 

[pavilion103]

My exit likely around 50-55 on that chart. I wouldn't have held for that next consolidation.

But 100% is nothing to complain about. With one like this the overall market context would have been important.

Post GFC no doubt many charts setting up some sort of base after a severe fall.

 

[kid hustlr]

Anyone able to assist in providing ideas as to why this chart appears to have broken to the upside? Any clues in the consolidation area which would have provided us with a set up?

 

[pavilion103]

Anyone able to assist in providing ideas as to why this chart appears to have broken to the upside? Any clues in the consolidation area which would have provided us with a set up?

View attachment 58499

This was the chart that I said previously "definitely doesn't look short".

It found support at a previous S/R level (not significant one).

It touched this low and then successfully re-tested this low.

Another clue is most of the bars in this "range" are bullish, or at least certainly not bearish.


One way to think about it is to look at it from a short perspective.
Would you have liked the look of it if you were looking for a short?
I'd say absolutely not.

That can also help in the analysis.

 

[pavilion103]

The biggest clue for me is the "test".

It is moreso a two bar reversal.

The next bar then pushes higher and this is a sure clue as to the rejection of the downside.



Note: the bar that shows there is still supply, as you market, is bearish.
However, even the bar before found some support close to a previous level. So at that stage it was "wait and see"
From here there was a lack of follow through to the downside.
Some support was found.
This was tested on a two bar reversal and then price pushed higher, a strong rejection of the low.

 

[tech/a]

In reply and to ADD to Pavs observations.



Would really like to see a chart with the bars going into the high
So I can analyse whats likely to happen then you post what DID happen!