tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Reading 'Master The Markets' - Confused
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tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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VSA is simply another technical analysis method. Like all methods the better you become at applying it the better the results. Its a trading method I use daily in my own trading and have done so for around 12 yrs. Your making assumptions without remotely trying to understand how you'd apply it to trading---everything you need to know has already been shown in my examples---simply LOOK
The long signals are correct as are the short signals. They were traded with my experience in the use of VSA. (in the exercise) VSA can be used as a stand alone trading method or can be used as an adjunct to.
Yes and the problem is?
All in good time still some more to be completed.
B/L take some time to either understand and become involved in at least attempting to grasp the concept or go off and do your own thing. I'm happy to help anyone but loose interest really quickly when all people want to do is discredit without a Modicum of interest or effort. I'm here for this thread ONLY and will be off again once its over.
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For chart 2:
The last six bars have all been in a downtrend. The previous 4 bars before the last one were all closing low, some real selling was happening at normal volume. Then that last bar, wide range-high volume, looks like a selling climax. The weak holders have panicked and dumped it to get out of there. Probably not much stops taken out because the recent history did not give any hope of going up for anyone to think about being bullish prior to this last bar. But from here the strong holders would have scooped the last bits and probably will throw a test, then start marking up the stock. So let's watch the next couple of bars to confirm before going long.
The last six bars have all been in a downtrend. The previous 4 bars before the last one were all closing low, some real selling was happening at normal volume. Then that last bar, wide range-high volume, looks like a selling climax. The weak holders have panicked and dumped it to get out of there. Probably not much stops taken out because the recent history did not give any hope of going up for anyone to think about being bullish prior to this last bar. But from here the strong holders would have scooped the last bits and probably will throw a test, then start marking up the stock. So let's watch the next couple of bars to confirm before going long.
This is exactly what has sparked my curiosity.
The longs may have been correct in terms of the method, but they were not profitable and tied up capital that could have been used elsewhere.
If it can be used alone, the question any trader considering it should be how good is it, but that cant be answered without considering the exit criteria.
And if it is used in conjunction with other methods the question any trader should ask is how much does it improve the existing system by re-evaluating last years trades and see how much more money would have been made, but again the exit criteria is needed. With every trade I take I review later with 4 different trailing stop methods to make sure what I use is still the best option. I also record the best possible target to make sure my targets are reliable. So traders considering adding VSA to their existing system should test it and compare it with past results.
Hence my question (not problem) of where does VSA signal the exit. The entry is only half of the story
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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The answers require more time than I have now.
But regardless of method no one or method cand tell you in advance wether it will be successful or not over a myriad of time frames. Even criteria plugged into a system ---- at the time of an entry signal cannot give an advanced point of exit.----- it will have conditions if met will trigger an exit.
So to with the discretionary use of VSA.
B/L you mentioned you use a system to trade.
Why do you review every trade with extensive
Notes as described. Systems results present a
Blueprint---further tinkering is not in the interests
Of any system?
More when I can devote the time.
By the way I'm not am ambassador for VSA.
Wether people use it or not is of no interest to me.
I'm simply answering questions presented---in my own
Circumstance.
But regardless of method no one or method cand tell you in advance wether it will be successful or not over a myriad of time frames. Even criteria plugged into a system ---- at the time of an entry signal cannot give an advanced point of exit.----- it will have conditions if met will trigger an exit.
So to with the discretionary use of VSA.
B/L you mentioned you use a system to trade.
Why do you review every trade with extensive
Notes as described. Systems results present a
Blueprint---further tinkering is not in the interests
Of any system?
More when I can devote the time.
By the way I'm not am ambassador for VSA.
Wether people use it or not is of no interest to me.
I'm simply answering questions presented---in my own
Circumstance.
I wasnt expecting VSA to predict a target. I was asking about as the trade progressed in those next 10 bars that you showed, how does VSA help choose a time to exit. Was there an exit in those 10 bars or sometime later?
My system is not mechanical, more of a systematic approach that has both mechanical and discretionary aspects, so sensible to monitor and review.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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VSA showed both the time to exit and the time to go short (as an example ) in the consolidation in the chart.
Same is in the rest of the chart after bar 10.(Some hints before) But importantly there are discretionary considerations that need to be evaluated with each signal. As such an experienced practitioner is likely to trade VSA differently to a novice---purely from experience in trading 1000s of charts.
To your method---how then can you evaluate your method if you have a discretionary component to it?
(Other than Forward trading?).
How can you evaluate a discretionary method in any other way?
More later---I digress.
Easy. I backtest manually using the walk through mode in my software and monitor the live trades to make sure the live trading agrees.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Have the same.
Next to useless.
For a meaningful sample size.
But hey if your turning a profit
Or convinced your results are
Enough for you---
Forgot the State Match is on.
So won't be posting tonight.
Gotta get my priorities right.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Firstly there are No Secrets in any trading method.
Technical
Fundamental
Systematic
Discretionary
Mechanical.
In my own experienceANY Indicator or analytic tool in isolation will at very best return a less than consistent favorable outcome when tested.
The whole Idea of Mechanical or Systems trading is to devise a set of trading rules and variables which can be coded into a computer and run them against various data sets with the view of returning a positive expectancy.
Trouble is like ALL methods is that at the time of a trade being triggered we have no idea whether it will a winning or losing trade.
All we do know is that if we continue to apply the same entry and exit criteria to a data set which has in the past shown a positive expectancy ---- and the data set at some future point doesn't experience new data outside of the parameter of the old data tested---we can expect results within a deviation of the mean of the tested results.
Its simply repetitive mechanical ---mindless---following of a positive expectancy tested method.
AND I'M ALL FOR IT
Best I've seen in a mechanical system is a return of 43% consistently.
I've seen many blow up but the majority return a healthy 10-25%
But what if you can see and understand intuitively whats going to happen and what is happening and you sit there screaming at the screen as your mechanical trade goes from profit to loss---worse opens then loses---worse opens then flounders between the open and your stop for weeks.
You've become discretionary if in nothing else but opinion.
After looking at 10's of 1000s of charts.
T/H said it best a while ago.
If your in a crowd you'll recognize your mother immediately yet those around you wont have a clue.
That's the best description I've seen when it comes to a chartist---a reader of crowd behavior in charted instruments.
VSA is a tool --- in my view a valuable tool for serious chartists---those discretionary traders who like myself can out perform mechanical trading by adding discretionary observations which are (in many cases) not code able.
And used in isolation are often meaningless.
Its what we do.
Is it better than what others do---who cares--its what WE DO.
Oh and yes I do trade Systematically---I don't have the time to trade in a discretionary manner day in day out--Don't have to--Don't want to.
So To the question
For price to fall there must be supply.
For price to rise supply must either be overcome so there is not enough to satisfy demand
OR Sellers with draw and simply hold.
Hint (Useful hints for application of analysis)
Every low is tested
Every high is tested
LOW volume speaks as loud as high volume in the correct context.
Look at range of low volume bars are they rising easily??
What we need to be able to recognize is a test which is likely to hold or likely to be broken
we can only do this by looking at price action before and AT the test.
So lets do that.
CLICK TO EXPAND
Technical
Fundamental
Systematic
Discretionary
Mechanical.
In my own experienceANY Indicator or analytic tool in isolation will at very best return a less than consistent favorable outcome when tested.
The whole Idea of Mechanical or Systems trading is to devise a set of trading rules and variables which can be coded into a computer and run them against various data sets with the view of returning a positive expectancy.
Trouble is like ALL methods is that at the time of a trade being triggered we have no idea whether it will a winning or losing trade.
All we do know is that if we continue to apply the same entry and exit criteria to a data set which has in the past shown a positive expectancy ---- and the data set at some future point doesn't experience new data outside of the parameter of the old data tested---we can expect results within a deviation of the mean of the tested results.
Its simply repetitive mechanical ---mindless---following of a positive expectancy tested method.
AND I'M ALL FOR IT
Best I've seen in a mechanical system is a return of 43% consistently.
I've seen many blow up but the majority return a healthy 10-25%
But what if you can see and understand intuitively whats going to happen and what is happening and you sit there screaming at the screen as your mechanical trade goes from profit to loss---worse opens then loses---worse opens then flounders between the open and your stop for weeks.
You've become discretionary if in nothing else but opinion.
After looking at 10's of 1000s of charts.
T/H said it best a while ago.
If your in a crowd you'll recognize your mother immediately yet those around you wont have a clue.
That's the best description I've seen when it comes to a chartist---a reader of crowd behavior in charted instruments.
VSA is a tool --- in my view a valuable tool for serious chartists---those discretionary traders who like myself can out perform mechanical trading by adding discretionary observations which are (in many cases) not code able.
And used in isolation are often meaningless.
Its what we do.
Is it better than what others do---who cares--its what WE DO.
Oh and yes I do trade Systematically---I don't have the time to trade in a discretionary manner day in day out--Don't have to--Don't want to.
So To the question
For price to fall there must be supply.
For price to rise supply must either be overcome so there is not enough to satisfy demand
OR Sellers with draw and simply hold.
Hint (Useful hints for application of analysis)
Every low is tested
Every high is tested
LOW volume speaks as loud as high volume in the correct context.
Look at range of low volume bars are they rising easily??
What we need to be able to recognize is a test which is likely to hold or likely to be broken
we can only do this by looking at price action before and AT the test.
So lets do that.
CLICK TO EXPAND
Or to look at it another way – without the volume angle.
We have a bear break out of an established TR, 3 push’s down, a wedge, [ expect 2 legs up if it triggers, it does], then 3 bull bars to higher high and then a failed second entry short [fl2] on the last bar drawn, which is also a strong bull bar.
There is also an inverted h&s – fwiw.
So sure it’s a scalp long, whether it gets much further time will tell. An abc target would be about the bottom of the trading range, where other patterns will likely form.
We have a bear break out of an established TR, 3 push’s down, a wedge, [ expect 2 legs up if it triggers, it does], then 3 bull bars to higher high and then a failed second entry short [fl2] on the last bar drawn, which is also a strong bull bar.
There is also an inverted h&s – fwiw.
So sure it’s a scalp long, whether it gets much further time will tell. An abc target would be about the bottom of the trading range, where other patterns will likely form.
Interesting. I cant say if I would have taken a trade or not without more info on the chart, but if I had a scan signal and my criteria was met my entry would have been a stop entry below the low - blue line.
My stop would have been red or orange line, without ATR info I couldnt say. Targets would have been as shown. Hard to say exactly where the orange target would be by scaling off the screen so it may or may not have been filled near that close. If it wasnt filled the trailing stop would have got me out where shown in orange.
So depending on where the initial stop was placed I would have been slightly better or slightly worse using price only. Over say 100 trades I wonder which would be better and by how much. Good food for thought though.
My stop would have been red or orange line, without ATR info I couldnt say. Targets would have been as shown. Hard to say exactly where the orange target would be by scaling off the screen so it may or may not have been filled near that close. If it wasnt filled the trailing stop would have got me out where shown in orange.
So depending on where the initial stop was placed I would have been slightly better or slightly worse using price only. Over say 100 trades I wonder which would be better and by how much. Good food for thought though.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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OK so we have 1 not sure
and 1 NO.
Next 10 bars
Click to expand
and 1 NO.
Next 10 bars
Click to expand
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my 2c - worth far less!
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I haven't been following this thread and don't know how much background info was given. This might be handy.
My thoughts are below based on very limited info (I've only checked the last few posts)
Other things I'd need to consider include previous support/resistance, context of overall market etc.
But based on this chart alone, here are my thoughts.
Of course this analysis would be accompanied with strong risk management including my original stop well and truly at BE by now.
My thoughts are below based on very limited info (I've only checked the last few posts)
Other things I'd need to consider include previous support/resistance, context of overall market etc.
But based on this chart alone, here are my thoughts.
Of course this analysis would be accompanied with strong risk management including my original stop well and truly at BE by now.
Liquidate and sell at break of low because is looks like a counter trend that has failed at resistance.
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OK this made me go back and look at the previous charts posted in this thread.
I didn't realise there was such strong resistance "ragne" in the background before it broke down sharply.
Context is king.
Seeing this in the background would make me think that I now need to see where previous support levels are before even considering taking a long. I'd need to see the much bigger picture.
Based on the volume on the fail and the failed test that I mentioned the ORIGINAL long position was an area where price was likely to at least pause and push up a little. This happened.
If we were at a medium term support level I'd go with my analysis above.
If we were not at a support level then I wouldn't take the long.
My trading is so strongly based on S/R levels that I cannot reach a decisive conclusion without that piece of information and would thus sit on the sidelines.
The key for me, even moreso than analysing where it will go from here is the fact that the stop on my original long would be at least at BE (well moved to below this current base now). And if I did decide to take the additional long that it would trigger at a level where the analysis for a short trade makes less sense (and initial risk isn't excessive).
In terms of taking a short trade here, I would not.
1) Price has pushed up from a base, rather than consolidating on the way down.
2) Most of the bars in the triangle/range are not closing on the lows (which I would require).
3) Id consider a short if price now broke lower and then pushed up again to re-test this range with bearish price action (and then failed)
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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No idea what Techs thinking here but surprised no one is talking about the last bar probe down on higher volume looking like a hold and or adding to position next bar if you are keen to me.
Well its not xstal to me.
For the bulls:
We have the hallmarks of a trend reversal.
If it breaks above the last bar it's a fl2, if it can get above the resistance from the earlier TR, it's good for a swing, otherwise just a scalp - but it's a dodgy area so caution is needed.
For the bears:
Wait, given the TR further price action is needed.
May just go sideways for a while.
For the bulls:
We have the hallmarks of a trend reversal.
If it breaks above the last bar it's a fl2, if it can get above the resistance from the earlier TR, it's good for a swing, otherwise just a scalp - but it's a dodgy area so caution is needed.
For the bears:
Wait, given the TR further price action is needed.
May just go sideways for a while.
This one's volume pattern has sparked my interest so thought I would see what Tech (and anyone else) thinks. No in depth analysis required, just a choice.
1. already in...if so what bar and what direction.
2. go long... if so at close or next day open
3. go short.. if so at close or next day open
4. wait.
It's a daily chart.
1. already in...if so what bar and what direction.
2. go long... if so at close or next day open
3. go short.. if so at close or next day open
4. wait.
It's a daily chart.
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