Reading 'Master The Markets' - Confused

[tech/a]

I'm intrigued. How about a real time example on daily oil. Where's it going?

View attachment 58280

Clearly there is a waning of supply.
With the last bar being wide range on average volume.
This is in contrast to the other highs in particular when tested.

Without supply longs will hold and price will have to seek out higher prices.
Being a commodity it is highly likely that there are a number of short stops at the highs.
A volume spike is possible as these are taken out.

I expect price to continue bullish to 111 to 112 ish
Each bar is another picture in the puzzle.

So now
Long since the latest swing low.

 

[tech/a]

Clearly there is a waning of supply.
With the last bar being wide range on average volume.
This is in contrast to the other highs in particular when tested.

Without supply longs will hold and price will have to seek out higher prices.
Being a commodity it is highly likely that there are a number of short stops at the highs.
A volume spike is possible as these are taken out.

I expect price to continue bullish to 111 to 112 ish
Each bar is another picture in the puzzle.

So now
Long since the latest swing low.

I too am intregued -----
What does your analysis tell you it's heading?

 

[Faramir]

Post 15 discussing Graph in Post 14.

Ask---what is each bar in isolation telling me about the participants.

THEN what is the story being told by the chart? BULLISH OR BEARISH---what do you think happens---Does the chart reverse back up OR continue down?--What does the chart tell you at the points marked.

IS EFFORT BULLISH or BEARISH---is it succeeding?

First my understanding of Area 5: volume is below the trend line. It is not influencing an bullish or bearish trend.

I am only going to try to answer the last question (and I am guessing as well - just like multiple choice . I am saying that the effort is bullish but it is not succeeding. After Area 5, I found one gap when the volume increase. Every bar, I see the closing price higher than the opening price. The graph on Post 8, you marked '1' in the volume spikes and that's where the closing price is higher. Where you didn't mark '1' and the volume was below the trend line, the closing price was lower (the line was red) OR there was very little movement in share price.

If the effort was succeeding being bullish, wouldn't we see an upward trend?

Now I need to get my head around the rest of the threads/conversation. Thank you Tech/a for being patience.

 

[beachlife]

I too am intregued -----
What does your analysis tell you it's heading?

Oil did not appear in my scan results tonight so it's a do not trade. But when it does come up in a scan result it will have nothing to do with volume so is irrelevant to this thread.

 

[Lone Wolf]

View attachment 58264

My view on the first one is much the same as Kid H. Area 5 shows lack of interest on both sides. Buyers aren't gaining traction on their effort to push price up, but at the same time sellers aren't seeing this pullback as an opportunity to get short.

Each side of the range saw a strong reaction. The last bar marked 1 was high volume that didn't manage to reach down as low as previous attempts, possibly showing support willing to move higher. But then we have the last bar marked 2, it was a test of resistance on low relatively low volume and followed by lower prices.

I wouldn't take a trade either way based on this. If I had to pick a direction I'd stick with the current trend which is down. But I'd rather take a long at the bottom of a range than a short.

View attachment 58254

This second one - High volume at the lows showing possible accumulation. A recent mini trend within the channel with higher lows and higher highs. The recent high volume bar wasn't actually at the high, but when it pulled back from the high. This was followed by tight consolidation rather than continued selling. If I had to pick one, I'd go long. But once again, it would've been better to go long above support than long below resistance.

I don't know if this matters, but the previous up trend didn't seem to end due to any climactic action, but rather seemed to end due to a general lack of buying interest at the highs. If so, we might have more success now that some holders were shaken out during this consolidation period.

 

[tech/a]

Oil did not appear in my scan results tonight so it's a do not trade. But when it does come up in a scan result it will have nothing to do with volume so is irrelevant to this thread.

Well let us know if and when it does appear
Further to todays trading we have a solid test of the
Highs.I don't have volume ---- can someone suggest a site which has it and I'm happy to follow crude as a live example.
There are other technical patterns in the crude chart----all putting the story together.

 

[tech/a]

Ah
Found a chart
Showing a pivot point reversal on volume.
This indicates a strong test of the current high.
So now not a buy and if holding a warning to be aware in the short term.

The next few bars will indicate wether there is enough supply to keep crude ranging or supply dries up and crude continues to rise. The increase in volume over the last 2 bars is showing weakness.
However the volume is lower than the most recent test.
This indicates less supply on this test.
Short term weakness but I'm still longer term bullish.---- from information gleaned from the chart.
Like all analysis the landscape continues to un fold.

Good example BL .

 

[beachlife]

Well let us know if and when it does appear
Further to todays trading we have a solid test of the
Highs.I don't have volume ---- can someone suggest a site which has it and I'm happy to follow crude as a live example.
There are other technical patterns in the crude chart----all putting the story together.

It appeared today. Stop order is in for a long trade. Break of the high will trigger it.

 

[tech/a]

It appeared today. Stop order is in for a long trade. Break of the high will trigger it.

Looks a good setup
With minimal risk.
Hope it works out.

I'll comment later on the previous posts by others.

 

[beachlife]

So now not a buy and if holding a warning to be aware in the short term..

Looks a good setup With minimal risk.

I'm a bit confused as these two comments seem to contradict.

What does volume analysis say today? (for my trade inside day is ignored so long orders still in)

 

[tech/a]

I'm a bit confused as these two comments seem to contradict.

What does volume analysis say today? (for my trade inside day is ignored so long orders still in)

View attachment 58314

Your set up conditions look good with minimal risk.
I'm giving a commentary on reading the chart.

To continue.
The last 2 bars are showing supply absorption.
Higher volume without pushing a great deal lower.
In fact the closes are all very close.

Id be surprised if this doesn't continue.

 

[beachlife]

Back to yesterday, your volume analysis said it looks short term bearish, but some other analysis says its a good long setup? How do you decide which analysis to trade by when they say the opposite?

 

[Wysiwyg]

The WTI is one of those consolidation triangles. I will even call it a pennant. Two ups, two downs and now a breakout.

 

[tech/a]

Back to yesterday, your volume analysis said it looks short term bearish, but some other analysis says its a good long setup? How do you decide which analysis to trade by when they say the opposite?

I'd have thought it would be pretty obvious that the trader would be looking for any possible long trades, after the short term weakness looked over.
You'd be looking for something like your setup ---- low risk.
If you were aggressive you could have entered on a lower timeframe as it tested the lows of the 2 bar range.
I'm sure on a shorter timeframe chart that testing would be much clearer.
You can read shorter term charts just as you can longer----provided you have enough liquidity.
I use 9 min on the DAX

The short term bearish play would only be an option to me if there was VERY high volume
This of course indicates lots of supply.
Lower closes would also indicate possible counter trade.
The price action after the wid range bar testing the highs was strong --- hope you got on it.

 

[beachlife]

I'd have thought it would be pretty obvious that the trader would be looking for any possible long trades, after the short term weakness looked over.
You'd be looking for something like your setup ---- low risk..

Yes it was an obvious long for me, but in the context of reading volume, no it's not obvious to me that you would be looking for a long because you said that based on volume analysis it was weak. As I said my setup has nothing to do with volume and is not what I would call low risk - it has a 23% chance of losing money...yes my order was filled.

How can it be an obvious long when you were saying how weak it was. What am I missing here?

So now not a buy and if holding a warning to be aware in the short term.

The increase in volume over the last 2 bars is showing weakness.


Short term weakness but I'm still longer term bullish.---- from information gleaned from the chart.

 

[tech/a]

Yes it was an obvious long for me, but in the context of reading volume, no it's not obvious to me that you would be looking for a long because you said that based on volume analysis it was weak. As I said my setup has nothing to do with volume and is not what I would call low risk - it has a 23% chance of losing money...yes my order was filled.

How can it be an obvious long when you were saying how weak it was. What am I missing here?

I thought I made it clear that all charts are dynamic ---- constantly changing
The question was asked AT THE TIME what VSA said to me. And right then on the daily chart that's what it said.
I wasn't asked when I would open a trade. I clearly said that at THAT point I wouldn't by but if I was already in the trade I'd hold.
You then asked today ----- before it broke out what it said to me--- and I clearly said I'd be surprised if it didn't continue bullish---to which you asked when---my reply was at a time similar to your set up or if you'd been on a lower timeframe you could have been more aggressive .

If you look at a 1 hr chart you'll see what I mean.

What are you missing?

I'd say a very useful analytical tool.

I sincerely hope this is beneficial to you.
I find it a powerful tool having used it for 11 years.

Perhaps the difficulty in your understanding is from being purely mechanical in your trading and not discretionary.
As you know I cut my teeth on systems trading ( maybe you don't know that ).

Discretionary trading is very difficult to master and I once questioned as you do VSA.----and ELLIOTT--- for that matter.
It's worth the effort both are very powerful in MY opinion.

I'm not here to convince you or anyone---just to present what I know.
Use it or Disregard it.

 

[beachlife]

I dont get it because your two conflicting posts #27 & #29 were made on the same day and were based on the same chart...nothing on the chart had changed.

 

[beachlife]

I'll try and explain better.

On 11th, you say VSA is bearish.
I say based on price I am going long.
You look at chart again and say nice setup, presumably based on price.

So it seems that your price analysis and VSA conflict so the question was what do you do in that case...how do you choose which one to follow when they conflict? Or do you just stay out and wait?

The next day is inside day. I say I'm still looking to trade long and ask what VSA now says - a seperate question based on the fact that we now have new info on the chart. I was curious if it now agreed with price or was still saying opposite.

 

[tech/a]

I'll try and explain better.

On 11th, you say VSA is bearish.
I say based on price I am going long.
You look at chart again and say nice setup, presumably based on price.

Based on trigger.

So it seems that your price analysis and VSA conflict so the question was what do you do in that case...how do you choose which one to follow when they conflict? Or do you just stay out and wait?

I was giving commentary as to what the chart was telling me with VSA---I think you had an expectation of a trade being verbalized. Wasn't my intention

The next day is inside day. I say I'm still looking to trade long and ask what VSA now says - a seperate question based on the fact that we now have new info on the chart. I was curious if it now agreed with price or was still saying opposite.

Supply was either withdrawn or buying swamped supply so price rose confirming my initial analysis.

I'm afraid I just cant fathom where your coming from.

To put it another way in the simplest of terms.
I was always intending to cross the road when I paused at its side to observe
Traffic conditions even stepping back a pace or so---just to be sure that's what I wanted to do.

To you it appears contradictory to me it appears very clear and anything but contradictory.
More so complimentary.
I guess that comes with experience.

Will move on from here to the initial two charts.---tomorrow.

 

[tech/a]

The SINGLE biggest reason people have trouble with "Getting"
VSA is that it is COUNTER INTUITIVE.

Guppy has demonstrated it as has Beachlife. (Their belief is that the masses
are being fooled by volume (This I agree with in part ) but they also believe that volume has no part to play
(This I don't agree with not even remotely) )

The belief of the masses is that High Volume is Great and very positive
and Minimal Volume is Weak and negative.

I believe the EXACT OPPOSITE (In context of the chart being read ).
This is the Hard part it seems counter intuitive.

I read ALL charts in the context of investigating SUPPLY.
Charts move up and down because of the volume of supply.

The minute supply is either
(1) Overcome
OR
(2) Withdrawn
Price will move upward---without excessive volume!

Supply is either feeding demand by being available (Often seen in high volume)
Or
Constantly being offered in the face of demand ( Seen in price falling without volume )
Or
Being withdrawn or held ( Seen in price rising with OR without volume).

So lets look at the first chart in the context of how I look at VOLUME and RANGE-----
WHAT IS SUPPLY DOING relative to the chart information available---- and ultimately WHAT IS PRICE LIKELY TO DO in that context.

Click to Enlarge



Now I think it should be really really clear now as to what the chart is saying.
Those who have had a strong look at it should be more definitive in what they now see.

So the SECOND chart should also be very clear given the commentary on the FIRST.

So using your knowledge now of volume and price---what is likely in either chart??---ANYONE