Reading 'Master The Markets' - Confused

[Caveroute]

Anyone able to assist in providing ideas as to why this chart appears to have broken to the upside? Any clues in the consolidation area which would have provided us with a set up?

View attachment 58499

Looks like you have had a TL break 2 legs down, a double bottom and then a weak resumption of the trend with some sort of retest of the high.

Vanilla price action.

What happens next – who knows, you need more bars.

 

[beachlife]

So is the consensus that volume provided clues that its not bearish but didnt say pull the trigger long so everyone would just sit on the side lines and miss the move?

There are price based clues that scream go long, and give entry triggers, so does including VSA just cause analysis paralysis?

 

[kid hustlr]

Appreciate the thoughts all.

tech - I'll post up this chart in a couple more days time. I should note that we have the USA unemployment number on Thursday night and although I'm a big believer that the market makes of it what it wants, it does have the possiblity to really skew the chart in one way or the other.

 

[minwa]

So is the consensus that volume provided clues that its not bearish but didnt say pull the trigger long so everyone would just sit on the side lines and miss the move?

There are price based clues that scream go long, and give entry triggers, so does including VSA just cause analysis paralysis?

Price or volume - which is more important to you ? If you were given a choice to only see one of them, which would you see ?

To me price is the ultimate decider, Wyckoff traded in the early 1900's when institutional activity was much more dominant which made volume more important. Today the markets are different..

I've personally spent a great deal of time studying and meeting traders - I've never met someone who primarily uses volume and turns profits. Elliot Wave also goes into that category. Not trying to attack this thread - I may change my mind if I see consistent profits turned with the analysis.

People use all sorts of voodoo magic to turn profits so I guess anything can be said about any method.

 

[tech/a]

So is the consensus that volume provided clues that its not bearish but didnt say pull the trigger long so everyone would just sit on the side lines and miss the move?

B/L
Sometimes I don't think you read peoples replies. The test of the bottom is the obvious place to go long---I and PAV pointed that out.
The next clue for me that my long was a fair trade was the 3 bars on lower volume which I circled---staying long is dependent on future bars and what they say.

There are price based clues that scream go long, and give entry triggers, so does including VSA just cause analysis paralysis?

At the first bar which pulls up as a bottom there are 2 things that can happen. Price can continue down OR it can reverse up. If a trader doesn't apply his analysis into a trade then his analysis---any form of analysis---is not acted upon and he waits until he does apply it.

I think the longer you've been trading the more you'll understand that being wrong is par for the course as is being right. Its what you do in both cases which will determine profit or loss. I don't mind being wrong---it brings me closer to being right---I wont stay wrong for long---but when I'm right Ill be slow in getting off the right train---I will at the next logical technical point place my trade at B/E---then I'm free!

Appreciate the thoughts all.

tech - I'll post up this chart in a couple more days time. I should note that we have the USA unemployment number on Thursday night and although I'm a big believer that the market makes of it what it wants, it does have the possibility to really skew the chart in one way or the other.

Its been said that all news is generally shown in the chart before it comes out.
Id like to see preceding bars to see if we can spot this.

I've never met someone who primarily uses volume and turns profits. Elliot Wave also goes into that category.

Minwa
Agree but I have seen many who are better traders because of their "Practical Application" of either and or BOTH.

If you don't apply it to a trading setup for ENTRY or EXIT then its simply an exercise in analysis---and there are plenty analysts here and out there who do just THAT!

There is no voodoo or magic in doing nothing!

 

[tech/a]

So is the consensus that volume provided clues that its not bearish but didnt say pull the trigger long so everyone would just sit on the side lines and miss the move?

There are price based clues that scream go long, and give entry triggers, so does including VSA just cause analysis paralysis?

B/L this was the question

Anyone able to assist in providing ideas as to why this chart appears to have broken to the upside? Any clues in the consolidation area which would have provided us with a set up?

Think the question was answered in that light.

More than happy to do real time right of page setups with entry-stops-exits.
Already done it a few times in this thread Oil was one but that went dead (No further comment from you or I).

NCM another.

 

[beachlife]

B/L
Sometimes I don't think you read peoples replies. The test of the bottom is the obvious place to go long---I and PAV pointed that out!

Ah I have mixed up the charts. When asked in another thread in real time about the aussie 10 year Pav said not too sure so stay out, kid said he was confused. Based on Kids question here it looks like he also let this one go. I cant help but wonder if VSA kept him out of an obvious break of counter trend on both charts.

You have said VSA is not stand alone and that's sensible.

What I am trying to figure out by asking the questions I am asking is does including VSA with other analysis improve results or over complicate things. From your CBA study I see no advantage. For Kids two recent examples I see both trades let go.

I am not trying to convert those who choose to use it, just checking it out for myself and asking questions that hopefully will help others decide. So far I'm not inspired to study 185 pages in that ebook or pay for the course offers that hit my inbox every couple of days.

I havent commented on how I am trading oil and ncm because I am not using VSA to manage them. (BTW saying you would have entered 2 or 3 bars earlier is not live but my fault for giving that option in the question).

 

[tech/a]

Ah I have mixed up the charts. When asked in another thread in real time about the aussie 10 year Pav said not too sure so stay out, kid said he was confused. Based on Kids question here it looks like he also let this one go. I cant help but wonder if VSA kept him out of an obvious break of counter trend on both charts.

You have said VSA is not stand alone and that's sensible.

What I am trying to figure out by asking the questions I am asking is does including VSA with other analysis improve results or over complicate things. From your CBA study I see no advantage. For Kids two recent examples I see both trades let go.

I am not trying to convert those who choose to use it, just checking it out for myself and asking questions that hopefully will help others decide. So far I'm not inspired to study 185 pages in that ebook or pay for the course offers that hit my inbox every couple of days.

I havent commented on how I am trading oil and ncm because I am not using VSA to manage them. (BTW saying you would have entered 2 or 3 bars earlier is not live but my fault for giving that option in the question).

Like you I'm not here advocating a way to trade.
Simply making known what I know.

I can say that my Index Futs trading in all time frames is far more profitable than it would be without.
In fact I don't know how Vanilla technical traders "could" turn a profit in time frames less than daily---if at all.

Best of trading

 

[kid hustlr]

tech - see below

Ah I have mixed up the charts. When asked in another thread in real time about the aussie 10 year Pav said not too sure so stay out, kid said he was confused. Based on Kids question here it looks like he also let this one go. I cant help but wonder if VSA kept him out of an obvious break of counter trend on both charts.
You have said VSA is not stand alone and that's sensible.

What I am trying to figure out by asking the questions I am asking is does including VSA with other analysis improve results or over complicate things. From your CBA study I see no advantage. For Kids two recent examples I see both trades let go.
I am not trying to convert those who choose to use it, just checking it out for myself and asking questions that hopefully will help others decide. So far I'm not inspired to study 185 pages in that ebook or pay for the course offers that hit my inbox every couple of days.

I havent commented on how I am trading oil and ncm because I am not using VSA to manage them. (BTW saying you would have entered 2 or 3 bars earlier is not live but my fault for giving that option in the question).

B/L, please don't make assumptions about how I trade, you really have no idea how I trade.

 

[kid hustlr]

Another question duckman if you have the time/inclination.

See chart below, its the aussie 10 years although truth be told the chart is irrelevant. Looking to get an understanding of how to play it when the longer term context might be pointing in one way but the shorter time frame is pointing the other.

 

[tech/a]

Kid

I don't trade these charts so interested in how the analysis pans out.

Here are the 3 charts and how Id play them from here.

CLICK TO EXPAND

 

[kid hustlr]

you're a legend, will study tomoro

 

[kid hustlr]

Tech,

The reason I like you commenting on these charts is because you have no idea how these markets trades. As such I get a purely unbiased view of the charts and it allows me to step and think with a clean slate to speak. Big data effectively book ends a lot of my longer term trades because put simply I need to be square going into these things because the movements can be super volatile.

I know you are of the view that all information is priced in, and to an extent I agree with that but the reality in these markets - probably moreso than any other market - news events can really shake up the market and instantly change the bias of the particapnts. Quite often highs and lows are made on big announcements (RBA/GDP/black swan event etc) and it interests me as to whether VSA can account for this type of stuff with some degree of accuracy.

Most wide range high volume bars are surrounded by a news event and whilst I hate the term 'fundamental' I think it has more use in bond markets and analysiing the macro environment then when compared with stay stocks.

Finally, I'm confident very few people use VSA in the markets I trade. That in itself gives me in the inclination to atleast consider whether it is useful in my market because put simply, I want to be do doing something that few others are doing. Instinctively I dont think it works AS WELL in these markets when compared to a stock indice but that doesnt mean it can't provide clues.

Appreciate your time looking at the charts, this thread + talking with Pav has assisted a great deal in my knowledge/understanding of VSA.

--

Updated charts of the two markets:

Aussie 10 years - 300 min: I note the huge volume on the bullish bar that came in yesterday afternoon and the fact we are now right back where we started. I tend to agree with you that it has 'run its course' but for now I am sitting out.



USA 10 years - daily:



I should note that there is plethora of market moving data out tonight which will most likely have a bearing on where this market is headed, atleast in the short term.

 

[pavilion103]

Well there you go.
On the first chart we spoke of poor context to consider a long.

The initial trade with the stop above that wide range down bar is still valid.

Not sure what impact news has but if this chart was FTSE for example you'd be sitting pretty right now to the short side had that initial short been taken.

 

[pavilion103]

Following that big volume bar we spoke about, notice the decreasing volume and bearishness in the 2 bars that follow. The first closes off the highs. The second rejects the top of the bar where we would have had out stop, on much lower volume.

 

[tech/a]

The US chart is showing Supply has returned. Wide range with higher volume. The short term analysis is that for this to pull up Range will need to contract as volume is met or Bars will need to show reversal within their length.
The longer term analysis is a lower high----that will if the current low is taken out herald a lower high.
A bearish longer term pattern.So my current long is under threat.

If I were aggressive---and for the exercise---Close the long and go short---stop at 10 ticks above the current high.
Will follow if you post me a daily chart.

Perhaps some of the "Vanilla" traders may post their trade----?

 

[pavilion103]

Come on now Tech.... Why should people post their own trades when they can simply just sit back and criticize yours?

 

[tech/a]

Come on now Tech.... Why should people post their own trades when they can simply just sit back and criticize yours?

That Oil Trades a cracker!

 

[kid hustlr]

Will follow if you post me a daily chart.

I'll post the US daily chart every couple of days or when I remember so you can track you hypothetical trade.

In the mean time, Updated Aussie 10 years chart. Good example of data or people talking can mess this market around. RBA Stevens opened his Gob today fyi.



I wont post anymore charts apart from the US daily from now on.

 

[beachlife]

Come on now Tech.... Why should people post their own trades when they can simply just sit back and criticize yours?

That Oil Trades a cracker!

Funny story about that. Because of position sizing I used cfds, and expected they would roll me over at expiry, but they didnt, they closed me at $107.32.

NCM going nicely too but no VSA to share.

Went long WES today, no VSA to share on that one either.

Any live trades that you would care to share? I find woulda coulda shoulda but didnt a bit boring.

Seeing as though my assumptions about Kids trading were wrong perhaps he could post what he actually did do and how he applied VSA.