RBA cash rate

[divs4ever]

Like traders calling themselves investors?

don't look at me ... i am not even a trader's bootlace

 

[mullokintyre]

The RBA has always been reactive, i doubt they have a proactive bone in their body.
May will be the critical month.
Just prior to that meeting, on April 12th we get the Monthly Household Spending Indicator, on April 26th we get OZ CPI data, April 27th we get the International Trade price Index, and finally on April 28th we get the Producers price Index.
Unless there is a significant slowdown in at least three of these items, the RBA will have to keep raising rates until that does happen
Those results will cause the RBA some heavy internal debating as to whether the current cycle has peaked or near peaked.
The pain of mortgage holders cannot be a major factor, otherwise we will have to have the pain of stagflation.
So much money chasing too few assets.
And that includes housing.
Mick

 

[frugal.rock]

That would have to be the dumbest thing to come out of finance since BNPL

Like traders calling themselves investors?

Like some investors being sophisticated?

 

[Knobby22]

The RBA has always been reactive, i doubt they have a proactive bone in their body.
May will be the critical month.
Just prior to that meeting, on April 12th we get the Monthly Household Spending Indicator, on April 26th we get OZ CPI data, April 27th we get the International Trade price Index, and finally on April 28th we get the Producers price Index.
Unless there is a significant slowdown in at least three of these items, the RBA will have to keep raising rates until that does happen
Those results will cause the RBA some heavy internal debating as to whether the current cycle has peaked or near peaked.
The pain of mortgage holders cannot be a major factor, otherwise we will have to have the pain of stagflation.
So much money chasing too few assets.
And that includes housing.
Mick

Since they don't get the data till April there may be a case for having a break from the rises next month.

 

[mullokintyre]

Since they don't get the data till April there may be a case for having a break from the rises next month.

There are still some monthly data releases in March to come yet, the monthly Household Spending indicator as well as the monthly CPI data. Its just that we get four bits in April.
They may still raise again April if either of these two data points remain stubbornly high.
Mick

 

[wayneL]

.25% eh?

Pfffft Low T move.

 

[farmerge]

I'm insulted

I'm not insultated. Call me anything but not late for a meal.

 

[mullokintyre]

Wow, the RBA adds 25 basispointsto cash rate and the USD jumps 1% against the AUD.
Now below 67.
Makes so much sense.
Mick

 

[sptrawler]

Since they don't get the data till April there may be a case for having a break from the rises next month.

Why? Can you feel it in your water.
Should I borrow or should I wait, OMG I need a pee. Lol

 

[sptrawler]

The RBA has always been reactive, i doubt they have a proactive bone in their body.
May will be the critical month.
Just prior to that meeting, on April 12th we get the Monthly Household Spending Indicator, on April 26th we get OZ CPI data, April 27th we get the International Trade price Index, and finally on April 28th we get the Producers price Index.
Unless there is a significant slowdown in at least three of these items, the RBA will have to keep raising rates until that does happen
Those results will cause the RBA some heavy internal debating as to whether the current cycle has peaked or near peaked.
The pain of mortgage holders cannot be a major factor, otherwise we will have to have the pain of stagflation.
So much money chasing too few assets.
And that includes housing.
Mick

If they were proactive, they would have a dedicated screen at the TAB and be on sportsbet.

 

[divs4ever]

If they were proactive, they would have a dedicated screen at the TAB and be on sportsbet.

haven't they already ??

no wonder TAH is having a hard time breaking $1.50 this year .

 

[farmerge]

Why? Can you feel it in your water.
Should I borrow or should I wait, OMG I need a pee. Lol

Let that there water flow i say.

 

[farmerge]

If they were proactive, they would have a dedicated screen at the TAB and be on sportsbet.

Now is that forward thinking, or what, and what would the odds be.
Where's rcw1 when he is needed!!!!!

 

[farmerge]

There are still some monthly data releases in March to come yet, the monthly Household Spending indicator as well as the monthly CPI data. Its just that we get four bits in April.
They may still raise again April if either of these two data points remain stubbornly high.
Mick

Watcand heard hed a financial guru on ACA tonoght. He reckons perhaps, could, might be 1 more rate rise and then when the bulk of the populus is crushed to the flooe there might, could perhaps be a respite and even in time see a rate drop.
Perhaps we should all be looking skywards to see if any pigs are flying past.

 

[divs4ever]

Watcand heard hed a financial guru on ACA tonoght. He reckons perhaps, could, might be 1 more rate rise and then when the bulk of the populus is crushed to the flooe there might, could perhaps be a respite and even in time see a rate drop.
Perhaps we should all be looking skywards to see if any pigs are flying past.

it is always about crushing the middle class ( and anyone else with ambitions )

 

[qldfrog]

AUD in free fall last night lost 2%

 

[mullokintyre]

just to put things in perspective .




And heres one that goes back a bit further to when I was paying off my fist house


The current rate value does not even approach the mean for the past 40 years, much less any sort of highs.
From the late 80's to 2012, rates only briefly went below 5%, and only once for a short time did they reach the current "high".
I think there is a bit of pain to come yet.
mick

 

[qldfrog]

just to put things in perspective .
View attachment 154050
View attachment 154051


And heres one that goes back a bit further to when I was paying off my fist house
View attachment 154052

The current rate value does not even approach the mean for the past 40 years, much less any sort of highs.
From the late 80's to 2012, rates only briefly went below 5%, and only once for a short time did they reach the current "high".
I think there is a bit of pain to come yet.
mick

I started with cheap 9% rate with discount Aussie home loans..remember but the whole small house small acreage 40min commute from work was below 160k....my wages at the time around 37k aka 4times annual salary.
I think even with salary increased into the 6 figures you will not find a similar house at $500k.
That very house estimated at roughly 770k..I just checked ? with minor improvements if any.
So yes not easy but rates should indeed be higher

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Rates Decision today ... what are the chances of steady, 0.25 up or the left field 0.15% up?

16 out of 27 pundits say no change.

 

[divs4ever]

Rates Decision today ... what are the chances of steady, 0.25 up or the left field 0.15% up?

16 out of 27 pundits say no change.

financial logic would argue for a rise , would 0.15% really be on the table ( despite it making a lot of sense )

however in debt-addicted Australia there will be political pressure for a pause ( especially with Easter soon )

personally i am reducing the share portfolio , so a 'pause' would be a pleasant boost to my liquidation campaign