QBE - QBE Insurance Group

[Triathlete]

Re: QBE - strong buy vs. strong sell

I was doing some reading up on QBE.AX today, and was stricken by differences in opinions: here https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=QBE.AX 15 analysts converge around buy/strong buy whereas here http://www.barchart.com/opinions/stocks/QBE.AX a dozen indicators unanimously scream SELL.

In addition to your opinions on QBE.AX, I would really love to hear your comments on how to interpret such discrepancies. Ideas?

The stock has been in a sideways trend now for around 4 years and ranging between $10 and $15 and is just consolidating and forming a base. So at the moment technically I cannot see any move up other than between these ranges.

Looking at Fundamentals the stock is improving with ROE at 11% and EPS forecast to grow 18% and dividend yield of 6% 100%FF 2016.My view is until ROE can move above 14% and improving both ROE and EPS then I feel the stock will continue to just range in price.

Looking at Lincoln Indicators Stock doctor they have a valuation of $14.33 and a consensus target of $15.51 so based on those estimates it would seem that QBE is at good value at present but whether they can continue to improve the business for the share price to increase is another thing.

Just my view..

 

[UMike]

I thought the worst was behind QBE. (Brexit excluded)

Looks Like I am wrong. About the only Share I didn't sell down following the Brexit buying opportunity dip.

 

[Quant]

QBE on the radar as of this week for longs 4-8 week hold , US 10y of lows , QBE div/report washed of , bit of flush recently , nice yield at $9.30 , reckon funds be allover this soon enough

 

[Quant]

QBE on the radar as of this week for longs 4-8 week hold , US 10y of lows , QBE div/report washed of , bit of flush recently , nice yield at $9.30 , reckon funds be allover this soon enough

QBE of the mat with US10Y yields getting a bid , alls well

 

[Quant]

QBE loves rising TNX , which currently nudging a breakout at 4 month highs , this one chart drives QBE as much as anything else out there





Early days but its looking sweet

 

[UMike]

Gee I hope so. Picked up a large bundle in my private and super.

Just hope your chart doesn't indicate a $11.0 odd ceiling.

 

[Quant]

Gee I hope so. Picked up a large bundle in my private and super.

Just hope your chart doesn't indicate a $11.0 odd ceiling.

11 dollar ceiling wouldnt bother me a lot although its likely a pause rather than ceiling , i only hold these trades up to 8 weeks and im more than happy with a 20% return in that time .

 

[Quant]

QBE loves rising TNX , which currently nudging a breakout at 4 month highs , this one chart drives QBE as much as anything else out there


View attachment 68354


Early days but its looking sweet

View attachment 68355

TNX has gone on with it , very positive for QBE , a couple positive days on XJO and i think QBE will get a strong bid.

 

[Quant]

Couple months down track and QBE doing exactly what was expected TNX going mental and driving QBE hard , worth hanging on to a few of these till bend at end




QBE chart spectacular 13 bucks very doable medium term for a potential 40% return in quicktime

 

[Quant]

and QBE the only green in top 20 in a bear trender day , says it all really , $13 might be closer than i though

 

[UMike]

I sold quarter of my holdings Friday - Relieved that I got as much as I did.

Just gone off from there. Was gonna aim to sell the second quarter at around the $12.75 mark but I have very much raised my expectations.

Sometimes bottom pickers do get rewards.

Go the Donald.

 

[ukulele]

Good trade there Quant, just hitting more 12 month highs today.

 

[Quant]

Quick follow up QBE , played out too perfection ... TNX really does drive this stock

 

[UMike]

Quick follow up QBE , played out too perfection ... TNX really does drive this stock
Or talk of a take over target.

 

[Quant]

QBE run up well over pre any takeover rumours , trust me TNX drives the share price of QBE substansially , anyone who thinks differently is naive or misinformed but hey whatever floats your boat , i no longer hold and im happy with my returns , couldnt care less where it goes for now , the easy money is done NEXT .... you wont find a much better correlation than that ..EDIT and to go 1 step further QBE currency adjusted is almost an exact match of tnx . i rest my case your honour ;-)

 

[galumay]

trust me TNX drives the share price of QBE substansially , anyone who thinks differently is naive or misinformed but hey whatever floats your boat ;-)

Its always a bit of a red flag when someone says thinking differently = naive/misinformed. Also remember correlation is not causation!

 

[craft]

Its always a bit of a red flag when someone says thinking differently = naive/misinformed. Also remember correlation is not causation!

I would say massive red flag when the line is started with "trust me"

I thought I had stumbled into a religious thread in the general chat section by mistake.

I guess we are ye of little faith.

 

[UMike]

Ha Ha. I don't trust any one but I must be naïve as I am stunned at its form reversal after the initial surge in it's price, Post Results. Was in a meeting and watched it drop from 1c away from my SMSF sell order. Seriously my job costs me heap of $$$$ sometimes.

I have no doubt the TNX plays a part in QBE's fortunes.

 

[Quant]

Look i have produced a sample set of data ( and a much much larger sample set looks exactly the same ) that backs up my claims , sorry i havent written a book to explain the sample set and the reasons the corellation is so strong but im a trader and not a university lecturer , the information to either refute or confirm my claims is out there . Maybe if you find out where QBE invest their cash the answer will come quickly . I am not here to convince anyone anything , ive pointed out why QBE has run up and ive laid the foundations of an edge if anyone cares to follow through ... good luck to all

QBE are risk adverse in their management of cash on hand and invest in governement bonds .. US primarily , its not a stretch of logic to see the effects of interest rate changes having a marked effect on the returns of this said money . It's all im saying , im not doing anyones work for them

The fact people dont trust my conclusions is fine but the fact i say " trust me " is not proof i cant be trusted . Ive done the work .... HAVE you .... enjoy your day

One more thing the only measure of a trader is P&L , and in this sample on a top20 its stunning given the time frame , i post these things to give others ideas but maybe i just go back to lurking . The only reward seems to be angst and derision

 

[Ves]

I would say massive red flag when the line is started with "trust me"

I thought I had stumbled into a religious thread in the general chat section by mistake.

I guess we are ye of little faith.

I actually thought Quant's thoughts over the last few weeks were pretty interesting. A bit of self-congratulatory hyperbole in his post yesterday is pretty easily overlooked for me because of that. We're all human and prone to "I told you so..." moments IMO.