QBE - QBE Insurance Group

[Garpal Gumnut]

Looks like the time is ripe to take at least 1000 of that of the table.

Itchy fingers ATM.

Not the only one.

A nice trend broken.

gg

 

[UMike]

Not the only one.
A nice trend broken.
gg

Would the trend forgive the one off incident involving the CEO Standing down.
Other than that the trend continues.
Hoping for a down day or two to top up.

 

[UMike]

Think the General trend is broken.
However picked up what I got rid of just now.

Lucky I got plenty other fingers to catch other falling knives.

 

[So_Cynical]

Another 15 year shocker, QBE a big global company not even treading water more slowly sinking.
~

 

[Sharkman]

yep it's a horrible stock to hold as an investment, wouldn't touch it with a barge pole for my buy & hold arm, but it's great for trading. it typically trades at close to 30 vol even during normal times (definitely on the high side for an ASX large cap), which i guess is at least partially due to all the nasty surprises that they've sprung over the years.

i've had this stock put to me at $10 or $11 numerous times over the last several years, usually it flounders around for a bit, then i manage to get it called away at the entry price or a strike higher, collecting fairly meaty premium (percentage wise - i don't take huge positions in this as one always gets the feeling that a disaster could pop up at any time - hence the high vol) along the way.

 

[UMike]

Probably a chartists nightmare.

Let a few go from the Person and Super collection today.

Still overweight imo as far as my portfolio is concerned but then again I have way to much cash on the side lines.

So why the sudden move?????

 

[finicky]

Must have been a good AGM address yesterday? I have no holding so haven't read it
Pretty awful 'quality' business, all the shares issued with declining book value and single digit ROE in the years that aren't an actual loss.

Chart looks to me like it wants to breast the high at $11, I would guess at it eventually breaking through as a casual comment, lord knows why. People must buy a stock like this because its a big cap in the asx 50/100 and a 'brand' or something.

ROE by year :

6.70

-2.50

6.70

7.00

8.20

-3.50

7.00

7.40

-11.80

Book Value:

9.16

9.28

9.87

10.50

10.37

8.36

8.95

8.92

7.50

Weekly - today's rise not shown

 

[dyna]

Yeah,I think insto's are only on the register for the index weighting,as it's been a p*ss poor long term investment.
That said,I've made a bit of profit out of it via selling the many SPP's over the years.Still keeping a minor holding for that reason....They will get the begging bowl out again if things- insurance go bad,as they inevitably do.

 

[UMike]

Must have been a good AGM address yesterday? I have no holding so haven't read it
Pretty awful 'quality' business, all the shares issued with declining book value and single digit ROE in the years that aren't an actual loss.

Chart looks to me like it wants to breast the high at $11, I would guess at it eventually breaking through as a casual comment, lord knows why. People must buy a stock like this because its a big cap in the asx 50/100 and a 'brand' or something.

I just have read the Address and they are turning as WOKE as F@#$%.
Time to get out I think.

 

[UMike]

Another 2000 sold.

Still seems to be going strong.

 

[divs4ever]

Yeah,I think insto's are only on the register for the index weighting,as it's been a p*ss poor long term investment.
That said,I've made a bit of profit out of it via selling the many SPP's over the years.Still keeping a minor holding for that reason....They will get the begging bowl out again if things- insurance go bad,as they inevitably do.

QBE is the only stock i 'trade' successfully and deliberately ,
as you have noticed QBE is always only one ann. away from another price crash , and for me that is a GOOD thing

while many members here use complex mathematical systems , i worked out a crude 'channel trade' and patience work nicely on this stock

i started out with a plan to buy ( a modest parcel ) below $11 and sell HALF the buy over $14 but participate in the DRP and calmly accumulate via the DRP and the remaining portions of the buys

as dyna had noticed frequent disappointments weigh on the share price and buying below $11 was ridiculously easy so over time have reduced that buying target to sub $8 and the reduction target to over $13 ( for HALF the recent buys ) and still participate in the DRP

now true it sometimes takes up to two years for a complete buy/sell-down cycle , but my average share price is fairly low now , making the miserable div. yield tolerable ( 1.6% on the current closing price which is pathetic for the risk taken ) but my average share price has been brought down to $6.95 ( sadly not enough to drop your jaws , but am working on it )

i have tried this strategy on two other shares ( BPT and SUN ) and while neither holding is underwater BPT is up 104% ( and 'free-carried ) while SUN is up 10% but strongly resists hitting my price targets but the div. yield is better than QBE or a term deposit , so just not a successful trading vehicle ( for my strategy )

QBE would certainly have to improve to be considered a 'core-holding ' in my portfolio

cheers

if nothing else it MIGHT encourage other small players to develop their own cheeky strategies , as they learn better techniques ( just DON'T be a forced seller have the luxury of waiting years if need be )

 

[dyna]

Yeah, Suncorp is more of a long -term trade for me, but others like Western Resources and Santos can be successfully traded without needing much talent at T.A. (Technical Analysis).
Just about any dividend-payer in the ASX 200 Index, with a sawtooth share chart will give you the confidence to place a ten grand bet on it and make a good profit.

 

[Sharkman]

QBE is the only stock i 'trade' successfully and deliberately ,
as you have noticed QBE is always only one ann. away from another price crash , and for me that is a GOOD thing

while many members here use complex mathematical systems , i worked out a crude 'channel trade' and patience work nicely on this stock

i started out with a plan to buy ( a modest parcel ) below $11 and sell HALF the buy over $14 but participate in the DRP and calmly accumulate via the DRP and the remaining portions of the buys

as dyna had noticed frequent disappointments weigh on the share price and buying below $11 was ridiculously easy so over time have reduced that buying target to sub $8 and the reduction target to over $13 ( for HALF the recent buys ) and still participate in the DRP

now true it sometimes takes up to two years for a complete buy/sell-down cycle , but my average share price is fairly low now , making the miserable div. yield tolerable ( 1.6% on the current closing price which is pathetic for the risk taken ) but my average share price has been brought down to $6.95 ( sadly not enough to drop your jaws , but am working on it )

i have tried this strategy on two other shares ( BPT and SUN ) and while neither holding is underwater BPT is up 104% ( and 'free-carried ) while SUN is up 10% but strongly resists hitting my price targets but the div. yield is better than QBE or a term deposit , so just not a successful trading vehicle ( for my strategy )

QBE would certainly have to improve to be considered a 'core-holding ' in my portfolio

cheers

if nothing else it MIGHT encourage other small players to develop their own cheeky strategies , as they learn better techniques ( just DON'T be a forced seller have the luxury of waiting years if need be )

agree with what you've said. my strategy with QBE is wait for it to fall to the low $10 range, then sell the $9.50 or $10 strike puts (at a stock price of around $10 the $9.50s typically fetch about 2-2.5%, the $10s about 3.5-4% for one month expiry, IV is consistently high in this stock), let it get put to me, and if it does, turn around and sell covered calls at the same strike or a strike higher until it gets called away.

the latter part is where i probably need to make some adjustments - after taking assignment on the puts, i've been too hasty in the past to try and get it called away asap, instead of leaving a bit of room for a potential rally on the back of some managerial "restructure" / blue sky announcement / period of relative calm in terms of natural disasters etc., before the inevitable hurricane / bad earnings numbers / managerial misstep tanks the price again.

my last "cycle" was getting it put to me at $10 in dec last year and called away at the same $10 in may, collecting around 75c net premium along the way. not a bad return when the collateral was tied up for just 6 months, but i did miss out on the strong rally that started in may. for the next cycle i'll have to somehow find the stomach (or is "diamond hands" the fashionable term to use these days?) to retain the full delta exposure for a while, see if it can find a rally to $12-$12.50 or thereabouts before selling the covered calls, hopefully getting rid of it before the next nasty surprise comes along.

 

[UMike]

Hit $12.5.
Getting back to that toppy ready for the next nasty surprise time.

Eying either a 1/3 or 2/3 sell off of my holdings.

@divs4ever and @Sharkman .... You still staying true to your strategies?

 

[divs4ever]

yes i have some for sale @ $13.15 ( NOT the full holding )

and will consider a top up price AFTER it has gone below $10 .. the last parcel i bought @ $7.90 ( in April 2020 ) so is long long time between the action , sometimes

 

[UMike]

yes i have some for sale @ $13.15 ( NOT the full holding )

and will consider a top up price AFTER it has gone below $10 .. the last parcel i bought @ $7.90 ( in April 2020 ) so is long long time between the action , sometimes

Yea I bought alot in the 7s and sold alot in the low 11s.

I'd sell 1/3 (of my current holdings) straight away but the below image is throwing me. (Am I being Greedy?)

 

[divs4ever]

QBE is a high( er ) risk stock i guess it is about your tolerances

mine are DRPed so if that parcel doesn't sell it is just more DRP shares ( that order has been in for about 5 months , so am NOT sweating on it )

i am more worried about the DOWN swings ( they can be quite sharp )

my 'average share price ' is less than $9.32

but you need a lot of patience IMO

 

[Sharkman]

Hit $12.5.
Getting back to that toppy ready for the next nasty surprise time.

Eying either a 1/3 or 2/3 sell off of my holdings.

@divs4ever and @Sharkman .... You still staying true to your strategies?

yep, i'm not entering QBE at these levels (no funds left in my IB account to collateralise short puts in any case, after having to scrounge up 190K to exercise those FMG calls i mentioned over in the FMG thread). just get that feeling another nasty surprise is right around the corner based on their track record. earnings report due next week i think?

though if i can get my CBA units called away after stripping next week's div, which conveniently goes ex-div right before feb expiry (have already held for 2 months) to free up some funds, might think about something like a may 12-11 1 by 2 ratio put spread (breaks even at 10) then.

 

[Sean K]

Looks like it's breaking up from the last 6 months of sideways movement. Might be a red day today though.

 

[divs4ever]

just means i delay the sell-down order longer and MAYBE even scoop up a couple of extra DRP shares

but IMO , QBE is one of those shares you should probably have a few .. but how do you reduce your average cost price because it is rarely 'good value '

in a pre Hayne Royal Commission era i would have reluctantly pointed you at AMP

but don't neglect SUN it will eventually have to do something ( better or disastrously )