Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

QBE - QBE Insurance Group

QBE today announced a FY21 statutory net profit after tax of $750M, compared with a net
loss after tax of $1,517M in FY20, reflecting a material turnaround in underwriting profitability.
Adjusted net cash profit after tax was $805M equating to a return on equity of 10.3%.
Insurance trading conditions were favourable throughout 2021, supporting our focus on
driving further improvement in profitability while also achieving targeted growth.
QBE Group CEO, Andrew Horton, said: “I am pleased with the strong premium growth and
significant uplift in underwriting margin. The strong result was achieved despite the
heightened level of catastrophes during the year which remain a major issue for the industry.”
“In targeting ongoing premium growth, we will remain vigilant in pricing adequately for an
appropriate risk-adjusted return on capital, with claims inflation, catastrophe costs and overall
portfolio volatility key areas of ongoing focus.”
The Board has declared a final dividend of 19 Australian cents per share bringing the FY21
dividend to 30 Australian cents per share, up from 4 Australian cents per share in 2020, and
representing a payout of 41% of adjusted cash profit. While recognising QBE’s improving
profitability and earnings resilience, the Board has revised the Group’s dividend policy to
40-60% of annual adjusted cash profit from “up to 65% of adjusted cash profit” previously to
retain capital to support our growth ambitions and facilitate the gradual normalisation of our
investment asset risk profile.
NEW PURPOSE, VISION AND STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
In January this year, we launched a new vision, purpose and set of strategic priorities. Our
new purpose is centred around enabling a more resilient future, while our vision is to be the
most consistent and innovative risk partner.
To achieve our purpose and vision, we have laid out six strategic priorities providing
enterprise-wide clarity around our key areas of focus; portfolio optimisation, sustainable
growth, bring the enterprise together, modernise our business, our people and our culture.
More detail is provided in our 2021 Annual Report and FY21 investor presentation.
QBE Group CEO, Andrew Horton, added: “Upon joining QBE five months ago, I immediately
recognised that I had joined an organisation with great potential. My overarching ambition is
to establish QBE as a consistently high-performing enterprise that is both culturally and
operationally united, with a clear strategic direction.
“Our new purpose, vision and strategic priorities will guide our strategic plan, building on the
momentum evident in our FY21 financial result as we seek to further strengthen and grow our
business for the future. In doing so, we will drive greater consistency and collaboration,
support the integration of sustainability across all facets of our business and continually
evolve the experience we provide our people, customers and partners.
“I look forward to working with the Group Executive Committee and our enterprise leadership
network on embedding our strategic priorities and sustainability framework into their
respective areas.”
FY21 RESULT OVERVIEW
Statutory gross written premium grew by 22% to $18,457M reflecting the strong premium rate
environment as well as improved customer retention and new business growth across all
regions. Growth in Crop was especially strong at 51% due to the significant increase in corn
and soybean prices coupled with targeted organic growth.
Excluding Crop, gross written premium increased by 18%, or 10% in excess of premium rate
increases, up from 7% in 1H21 and 4% in FY20. This included growth in excess of rate of
15%, 7% and 11% in North America, International and Australia Pacific respectively.
Premium rate increases are ongoing with Group-wide renewal rate increases averaging 9.7%
during the year consistent with 1H21 and 9.8% in FY20. While premium rate momentum
moderated slightly in International across the year, momentum accelerated in North America
and Australia Pacific during 2H21.
The Group reported a statutory FY21 combined operating ratio of 93.7% compared with
104.2% in the prior year which was significantly impacted by COVID-19 claims and adverse
prior accident year claims development.
Pleasingly, our North America Crop business reported a combined operating ratio of 92.7%,
an improvement from 95.0% reported at 1H21 and 98.2% in FY20.
For transparency and prior year comparability, our 2021 Annual Report and FY21 Investor
Presentation includes analysis of the Group’s 2021 financial performance excluding the
impact of COVID-19 and a 2021 transaction to reinsure Australian CTP liabilities which,
although not materially impacting profit, impacts year-on-year comparison of underwriting
ratios. The financial result commentary that follows is on this basis.
The Group’s improved underwriting performance reflects a 1.4% improvement in the ex-cat
claims ratio and a 2.2% reduction in the combined commission and expense ratio which more
than offset significantly increased catastrophe claims.
Catastrophe claims for the year were $905M or 6.6% of net earned premium, up materially
from $688M or 5.8% in the prior year and 0.9% above the Group’s increased allowance.
Catastrophe claims included Winter Storm Uri, Hurricane Ida, Storm Bernd, Cyclone Seroja
and widespread flooding and storm damage in Australia.
The result included underlying adverse prior accident year claims development of $192M or
1.4% of net earned premium compared with $366M or 3.1% of adverse development in FY20.
The combined commission and expense ratio improved to 28.5% from 30.7% in the prior
year, reflecting further benefits stemming from the Group’s operational efficiency program
coupled with operating leverage associated with strong premium growth, particularly in Crop.
Business mix changes, including growth in Crop, coupled with the purchasing of additional
quota share reinsurance contributed to a reduction in the commission ratio.
Net investment income was $122M compared with $226M in FY20. A modestly short tactical
duration stance coupled with healthy returns on growth assets more than offset the negative
mark-to-market impact of higher risk-free rates on our fixed income portfolio.
QBE’s indicative regulatory capital PCA multiple was 1.75x, up marginally from 1.72x at 31
December 2020 and comfortably above the mid-point of the Group’s 1.6-1.8x target range.
The benefit of strong organic capital generation on regulatory capital was largely offset by
capital strain associated with strong new business growth.
OUTLOOK
QBE Group CEO, Andrew Horton, said: “Our new strategic priorities will support further
optimisation and improvement in returns, alongside a focus on driving greater consistency in
returns.”
“Following another year of elevated natural catastrophe claims costs alongside rising
inflationary signals and continued low interest rates, the industry operating environment
remains highly uncertain. Because of this, the premium pricing environment is likely to remain
positive in 2022.”
“In light of this, we expect gross written premium growth to be in the high single digits in 2022.
Moreover, delivery against our strategic priorities should result in an improved and more
consistent return profile over time such that the Group is capable of consistently delivering a
low to mid-90’s combined operating ratio.”
“In FY22, we expect the business will achieve further steady improvement on the FY21 ‘exit’
combined operating ratio of ~94%.”
BASIS OF PRESENTATION (unless otherwise stated)
• All amounts in this release are US dollars.
• Premium growth rates are quoted on a constant currency basis.
• Premium rate changes exclude North America Crop and/or Australian compulsory third
party motor (CTP).
• Combined operating ratio and net claims ratio exclude the impact of changes in risk-free
rates used to discount net outstanding claims.
• 2021 indicative regulatory capital PCA multiple is quoted on a pro forma basis excluding
pre-funding of GBP327 million debt intended to be redeemed.
• Prior accident year claims development excludes various items for which there is a
corresponding and offsetting impact elsewhere in the profit and loss. Refer to the Annual
Report for further details.
FY21 RESULTS PRESENTATION
QBE Group CEO, Andrew Horton, and Group CFO, Inder Singh, will host a briefing for
analysts and institutional investors at 9.30am (AEDT) today.
The briefing will be available for viewing as a live webcast and conference call. All
participants need to register to access the webcast or conference call using the links below.
Pre-registration is now open.
Webinar and conference call:
Webcast (listen only): https://webcast.openbriefing.com/8457/
Teleconference (Q&A participation): https://s1.c-conf.com/diamondpass/10019512-q3duk5.html
Questions will only be open to analysts and investors who join via the teleconference.
The briefing will be recorded with a playback available using the following link after the event


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DYOR

i hold QBE

top up price sub $9 ( or less )
 
just get that feeling another nasty surprise is right around the corner based on their track record. earnings report due next week i think?

two words - like clockwork

feels like it happens every time with this stock - big announcement = big fall

i don't follow the stock all that closely anymore now that i'm primarily a buy & hold/index guy, but TBH i didn't think the results looked all that bad on the surface. must have fallen a long way short of market expectations i guess. that's how things have gone with this stock over a number of years though, a build up of optimism/blue sky/"turning the corner" before being shocked back to reality

another daily fall like that and i might start getting tempted by those $10 strike puts again, CBA div was stripped earlier this week so getting that position called away to take a potential put assignment could work. 1m ATM vols at a healthy 40'ish
 
it is the nature of QBE , the best i can do is make the best of it

i was ( and still have the reduction order in ) looking to sell some , BUT if the price drops low enough i will buy some ( and reduce later )

hopefully the DRP will be active , so it will be just a slight change in plan
 
Hit $12.5.
Getting back to that toppy ready for the next nasty surprise time.

Eying either a 1/3 or 2/3 sell off of my holdings.

@divs4ever and @Sharkman .... You still staying true to your strategies?

don't have the cash collateral available for it at the moment (doesn't look like my CBA position is going to get called away at this point, with mar covered calls struck at $100) but i'm putting (no pun intended) those $10 puts back on my radar again, as per my strategy with this stock.

mar contracts (2 weeks) fetching around 1.4% premium at the mid, IV about 52. apr contracts (7 weeks) around 3% premium 42 IV. those are meaty vols even by QBE's standards, though obviously vols elevated across the board right now.

might even specifically free up the collateral to do it if it drops to around $10. at near ATM levels ($10.75 strike) the premiums look quite juicy, ~3.2% for the mar contracts, ~5.1% for apr. it's a high risk position for sure, but those sorts of premiums are sufficient compensation for that risk i think.
 
Half year 2022 result
“Despite the challenging operating backdrop, QBE demonstrated
resilience in the period, with ongoing positive momentum across the
business. We have made good early progress against our new strategic
priorities, and our outlook for the remainder of the year remains positive.”
Andrew Horton • Group CEO

QBE announced HY22 statutory net profit after tax of $151M, compared with $441M in HY21, reflecting adverse mark-to-market
impacts on our investment portfolio, the transaction to reinsure North America Excess & Surplus (E&S) lines prior accident year
liabilities, the Australian pricing promise review and an adverse risk free rate mismatch. Adjusted cash profit after tax reduced
to $169 million from $463 million in the prior period.
Despite economic uncertainty, higher inflation, geopolitical tensions and record storm and flood events in Australia, QBE’s
underwriting performance remained resilient in the first half of 2022, with the adjusted combined operating ratio of 92.9% improving
0.4% compared to the prior period. Premium growth remains strong, with Group-wide renewal rate increases of 8.1% in the first half
of 2022, which supported gross written premium growth of 18%.
QBE’s indicative regulatory capital PCA multiple was 1.77x compared to 1.75x at 31 December 2021, and toward the upper end
of the Group’s 1.6-1.8x target range. The Board has declared an interim dividend of 9 Australian cents per share, a decrease from
11 Australian cents per share in the prior period. The strong dividend payout ratio of 57% reflects the Board’s confidence around the
strength of the balance sheet and positive business momentum.
Unless otherwise stated, the Group and business commentary following excludes the impact of the transaction to reinsure legacy
North America E&S prior accident year liabilities, and the impact of the Australian pricing promise review.

DYOR

i hold QBE ( and participate in the DRP )

and currently have both a top up order ( sub $9.60 ) and a reduction order ( above $13 ) in the market

i 'channel trade' this , but how will the market take this ??

( i would have thought some of this would have been priced in , already )
 
Half year 2022 result
.......

DYOR

i hold QBE ( and participate in the DRP )

and currently have both a top up order ( sub $9.60 ) and a reduction order ( above $13 ) in the market

i 'channel trade' this , but how will the market take this ??

( i would have thought some of this would have been priced in , already )
I trade with in that range also.

I thought the result was a bit disappointing and the SP would reflex that.
Can't Pick it atm.
 
i interpreted the report as unflattering , but then again i had no reason to expect a 'shoot the lights out report '

so what was today's trading ???

Last Price (AUD)$12.540
Today's Change Up $0.400 (3.29%)

was the live investors' thinking 'yeah but we suspected this ' $12.50 isn't that bad a price ??

since i participate in the DRP , i was hoping the SP would get pummeled to offset the 2 cent cut in the div .

BTW .. QBE frequently wrong-foots me .. thus the simultaneous orders in the market ( one for UP and one for DOWN )
 
Recently the NSW government has given back 1 demerit point to some people who fitted the bill, as decided by them.

Usually demerit points from an offence are given back after 3 years, with 4 months processing time, apparently.

Insurance companies systems aren't set up to handle this scenario as they check offence dates, rather than actual demerit points, I believe.

Have spoken with QBE today about this matter and they have been good enough to promise me the cheaper price of circa $320 for CTP greenslip if I take screenshots of Service NSW app demerit and licence screens and also Service NSW screen off a normal computer as it will show licence details together with demerit points.
Otherwise the CTP greenslip price reverts to circa $520, circa $200 more for a year.

I got one demerit point from doing 39 in a 30 zone with a speed camera.
I thought it was a 40 zone.
Was in April 2022 around 1.5 hours from home around 7:30 in the morning after dropping off the wife at hospital to get stitches out after being knocked over at a pedestrian crossing by some hag 10 days before.

Meanwhile, it's not a 30 zone anymore where I got done, it's now a 40 zone.

Hopefully QBE sticks to their word.
Will post here how I get on with it.
 
Market update

ASX Announcement

19 June 2024

QBE announces outcome of North America middle-market strategic review, and provides updated colour on 1H24 performance.

Strategic review of North America middle-market

Following an extensive strategic review, QBE has determined it will commence an orderly closure of its North America middle-marketsegment.

The segment represented gross written premium of ~$500M in FY23, and has experienced performance challenges over several years.

The closure of middle-market will serve to refocus North America’s strategy on those businesses which hold more meaningful market position, relevance and scale.
The closure will have no incremental impact on appetite or strategy for North America’s three core businesses, Specialty, Crop and Commercial.

QBE will begin non-renewing middle-market policies in accordance with applicable state regulations, with gross written premium expected to begin reducing in FY24, before falling more substantially in FY25.

A restructuring charge of ~$100M before tax will be recorded in the FY24 result to account for costs associated with the business closure.

The closure is expected to have limited impact on QBE’s FY24 Group combined operating ratio, and further information will be provided at QBE’s 1H24 result on 9 August, 2024.

1H24 performance update

Following the 1Q24 Performance update released on 10 May, QBE provides additional colour on Group performance ahead of its1H24 result:
• Premium growth:
1H24 gross written premium is expected to be ~$13.1B, representing constant currency growth of ~3% on the prior corresponding period, with net insurance revenue expected to be ~$8.4B.
• Catastrophe costs:
Group catastrophe costs in the five months to May-2024 are estimated at ~$500M, relative to the 1H24 catastrophe budget of $609M. Recent events have included US convective storms, the Dubai floods and an initial estimate of$175M-$225M to account for QBE’s net exposure to the ongoing civil unrest in New Caledonia.
• Prior year development:
Following the completion of recent 1H24 reserve reviews, QBE continues to expect a modest level of adverse prior year development.
• Investment result:
Total investment income in the five months to May-2024 was $643M, which improved from $406M in 1Q24.
The result included a favourable credit spread impact of $76M, and a risk asset result of $104M.
To May-2024 the net impact from asset liability management activities remained neutral.
Based on its preliminary view of the 1H24 result, QBE continues to expect FY24 Group constant currency gross written premium growth in the mid-single digits, and a FY24 Group combined operating ratio of ~93.5%.

i hold QBE ( and participate in the DRP )

let's see how the market takes this ( it has been trading at fairly high valuations )
 

QBE Insurance Group Limited (ASX: QBE)​



i hold QBE ( and participate in the DRP ) , IAG , SUN and SOL
 
Dividends

The directors are announcing an interim dividend of 24 Australian cents per share for the half year ended 30 June 2024(2023 14 Australian cents per share).

The interim dividend will be 20% franked (2023 10%).

The total interim dividend payout is A$360 million (2023 A$209 million).

i hold QBE ( and participate in the DRP )
 
QBE announces proposed issue of AUD Floating Rate Subordinated Notes and AUDFixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes

QBE Insurance Group Limited (QBE) is pleased to announce a proposed issue of AUD Floating Rate Subordinated Notes and/or AUD Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes (Subordinated Notes) to be issued by QBE under its Note Issuance Programme, subject to market conditions and terms.

The proposed issue of Subordinated Notes is part of QBE’s ongoing funding and capital management strategy. QBE expects the proceeds to fund Tier 2 capital.

If QBE proceeds with the issue of the Subordinated Notes, pricing and further details will be the subject of a further announcement.

i hold QBE ( and participate in the DRP )

hmmm

do they think they need an extra liquidity buffer ?

QT coming , or more expected claims ?
 
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