PDI - Predictive Discovery

[Sean K]

PDI in the dunny this month so tipping a recovery in March. Unless there's a monkey.

 

[Sean K]

This has recovered well this month following POG but 24 ish looks like trouble.

What might take it through could be a surprise to the upside on the PFS due this month. 2 weeks to go... The environment study was supposed to come out first though, but maybe together.

Maybe the significant jump has factored in a good PFS already.

Will be interesting what the projected production and NPV is on the project. Hopefully around 300K ozpa rather than 250.

I anticipate a CR after the PFS is released.

 

[mullokintyre]

This has recovered well this month following POG but 24 ish looks like trouble.

What might take it through could be a surprise to the upside on the PFS due this month. 2 weeks to go... The environment study was supposed to come out first though, but maybe together.

Maybe the significant jump has factored in a good PFS already.

Will be interesting what the projected production and NPV is on the project. Hopefully around 300K ozpa rather than 250.

I anticipate a CR after the PFS is released.


View attachment 172728

I have had a sell in at 25 for months.
I hope it makes it to 25 soon.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

I have had a sell in at 25 for months.
I hope it makes it to 25 soon.
Mick

The most pressing issue is the monkeys. If a chimp wanders into the project zone then we lose all our money. If not, I'm running with Sprott's pluck valuation of around 50c. Then, I'll bail.

 

[Sean K]

BlackRock don't seem to be too worried about the monkeys.

Why do they have 15% of this? They claim to be a huge ESG player but own a large chunk of a company on the edge of a monkey park in a country ruled by the military. Maybe the ESG stuff is just a charade.

 

[mullokintyre]

Maybe the ESG stuff is just a charade.

I'm shocked I tell you, shocked!.
mick

 

[Sean K]

PFS delayed. Incompetence, or trouble? Or, just par for the course with this mob.

I guess the words 'progressing well' mean something a little bit different to them than to shareholders.


Predictive Discovery Limited (“PDI” or the “Company”) wishes to advise that the Bankan Gold Project Pre-Feasibility Study (“PFS”) is progressing well.

Subject to the final review by the Board of the Company, the PFS will be published mid-April, when a summary of the findings will be announced to shareholders via the Australian Securities Exchange. Details of investor conference calls will be provided in the PFS announcement.

 

[mullokintyre]

PFS delayed. Incompetence, or trouble? Or, just par for the course with this mob.

I guess the words 'progressing well' mean something a little bit different to them than to shareholders.


Predictive Discovery Limited (“PDI” or the “Company”) wishes to advise that the Bankan Gold Project Pre-Feasibility Study (“PFS”) is progressing well.

Subject to the final review by the Board of the Company, the PFS will be published mid-April, when a summary of the findings will be announced to shareholders via the Australian Securities Exchange. Details of investor conference calls will be provided in the PFS announcement.

I am banking on that Bankan PFS to give PDI a boost for the yearly comp.
It is marginally above the entry price after being down for most of the cal year.
Still hoping to exit around 30 with my real investment to pay for a trip to the US this year.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

I am banking on that Bankan PFS to give PDI a boost for the yearly comp.
It is marginally above the entry price after being down for most of the cal year.
Still hoping to exit around 30 with my real investment to pay for a trip to the US this year.
Mick

If they get the excise from the park I reckon someone will take them over. I thought PRU might have prior to the ORR and potential NEM transactions. Now not so sure. Maybe Endeavor.

Predictive Discovery next in firing line for Perseus​

By BRIDGET CARTER
DATAROOM EDITOR

After Perseus has dealt with OreCorp and Newmont’s Akyem project in Ghana, some think Predictive Discovery will be next in the firing line for the African gold miner.

Predictive Discovery is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange with a market value close to $500m, and many believe Perseus would have a strong attraction to the company for several reasons.

Predictive Discovery owns gold deposits in the Siguiri Basin in Guinea. Some consider them the best undeveloped greenfield deposits in West Africa.

There’s still plenty of wood to chop for Perseus before it gets to buying the listed group, however, with other mergers and acquisition opportunities under way. But it is in the sweet spot of the $2.7bn gold miner.

Perseus needs to embark on acquisitions, because after 2030 its production pipeline falls sharply. Its Sissingue mine in Cote d’Ivoire drops off after 2030, and its Edikan mine production in Ghana falls off not long after that time.

As earlier reported, Perseus is considering an acquisition of Newmont’s Akyem project in Ghana, where Perseus already has operations, and Akyem is expected to sell for about $1bn through investment bank Citi.

Market experts believe Perseus could be the front runner to buy that asset.

That’s on top of buying OreCorp, for which it sweetened its offer this week, now putting forward 57.5c a share, or $270m, up from 55c a share, or $258m.

OreCorp has the Nyanzaga Gold project under development in Tanzania.

Any deal would almost certainly happen no earlier than the second half of the year.

Sources say Perseus chief executive Jeff Quartermaine has recently conveyed his view that the business is currently expensive for what it is and he believes that in reality, it is a 3 million ounce reserve rather than 5.4 million as forecast.

But the experienced mining boss has a reputation around the market of playing down any interest he may have in his targets as well as being disciplined on price, and sources believe that despite the comments, it is on the company’s radar.

Another reason why a deal may not happen for several months is that Predictive Discovery still needs a mining permit, and Perseus would probably wait for a permit to be granted, with the risk being that it is in the buffer zone of a national park.

Predictive Discovery will submit its scoping study for the project in April, and it will probably take about six months.

Market analysts believe that should Perseus buy the Newmont asset in Ghana and OreCorp, as expected, it would probably need to use its own scrip to buy Predictive Discovery, with it using up its cash balance.

But it could bring in a joint venture partner, such as its current joint venture backers out of Saudi Arabia.

The company has a strong reputation for being a good executor on projects in the Africa region, where gold opportunities are aplenty but political risks remain.

Perseus, the fourth largest gold miner on the ASX, reported a 21 per cent increase in its net profit for the six months to December on the previous corresponding period to $US164.7m.

 

[Sean K]

I am banking on that Bankan PFS to give PDI a boost for the yearly comp.
It is marginally above the entry price after being down for most of the cal year.
Still hoping to exit around 30 with my real investment to pay for a trip to the US this year.
Mick

PFS in 2 weeks Mick. Current MC around $500m, will be interesting to see what the NPV is on it. Hopefully around the $1.5b mark as an absolute pluck. They's got 3.9m oz in Indicated, so perhaps something like 250k pa for 15 years as a start. Capex? No idea. $350-450m. Our yearly comp pick hinges on permitting.

 

[mullokintyre]

PFS in 2 weeks Mick. Current MC around $500m, will be interesting to see what the NPV is on it. Hopefully around the $1.5b mark as an absolute pluck. They's got 3.9m oz in Indicated, so perhaps something like 250k pa for 15 years as a start. Capex? No idea. $350-450m. Our yearly comp pick hinges on permitting.


View attachment 173890

 

[mullokintyre]

The problem is, these things usually leak like a sieve and those in the know act accordingly.
If the outcome was super dooper good, there would have been a buying frenzy over the past week, which has not really materialised.
There was a spike after the blackrock announcement, but its been weak ever since.
Maybe i am spending too much time reading the tea leaves.
mick

 

[Sean K]

The problem is, these things usually leak like a sieve and those in the know act accordingly.
If the outcome was super dooper good, there would have been a buying frenzy over the past week, which has not really materialised.
There was a spike after the blackrock announcement, but its been weak ever since.
Maybe i am spending too much time reading the tea leaves.
mick

Wake me up Mick, this is like watching grass grow. Or reading climate 'science'. It's driving me mad. Would be better off going down to Crown and putting some cash on black. Zzzzzzzz.

I think I'm going to be diving with the fishes in south east Sulawesi when the PFS comes out so I'll rely on you to ramp the hell out of the result, no matter how crap it is.

 

[mullokintyre]

Wake me up Mick, this is like watching grass grow. Or reading climate 'science'. It's driving me mad. Would be better off going down to Crown and putting some cash on black. Zzzzzzzz.

I think I'm going to be diving with the fishes in south east Sulawesi when the PFS comes out so I'll rely on you to ramp the hell out of the result, no matter how crap it is.

Sorry, I will not be doing to much ramping when it comes out, I will be sunning myself on Waikiki beach.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

I'm not sure if this exploration drilling is going to turn into anything. Need some wider intercepts me thinks.

 

[Sean K]

24c still a hurdle, but it's trying @mullokintyre

 

[The Triangle]

The pfs is out and it's rather poor in my opinion. IRR @ $1800 gold is only 25% - which I don't think is good enough to justify the capital of $700 million AUD. Even at spot rates it only looks average at best. Which likely explains the delays in the study... Was probably worse before 'assumptions were adjusted' or something along those lines.

So if you think about it - if you want PDI - you need to pay ~$600 million (at least?) for a takeover, then $700 million for the mine + all the blowouts. I don't see any scenario where PDI mines this themselves.

I'm pretty sure I said this a year or two ago, but they should have done a PFS on a deposit half this size instead of continuing to drill deeper and deeper for more expensive ore. That would have limited the capital raisings, decreased the SOI and had a SP in the 30s or 40s and be genuinely looking at production in the near term.

Good thing gold is high. If this was released a few months ago I think the SP would have tanked.

 

[Sean K]

The pfs is out and it's rather poor in my opinion. IRR @ $1800 gold is only 25% - which I don't think is good enough to justify the capital of $700 million AUD. Even at spot rates it only looks average at best. Which likely explains the delays in the study... Was probably worse before 'assumptions were adjusted' or something along those lines.

So if you think about it - if you want PDI - you need to pay ~$600 million (at least?) for a takeover, then $700 million for the mine + all the blowouts. I don't see any scenario where PDI mines this themselves.

I'm pretty sure I said this a year or two ago, but they should have done a PFS on a deposit half this size instead of continuing to drill deeper and deeper for more expensive ore. That would have limited the capital raisings, decreased the SOI and had a SP in the 30s or 40s and be genuinely looking at production in the near term.

Good thing gold is high. If this was released a few months ago I think the SP would have tanked.

Yes, some disappointing numbers on the lower end of my expectations, but you'd expect this to all markedly improve by a DFS.

I was expecting more of the Indicated to make it into Reserves. Much more. You'd expect more of it to get into the Reserves by the DFS which will extend the mine life improving NPV. There's still a lot of Inferred and near mine deposits to add as well. Perhaps they'll be able to get all the currently Indicated 5Moz into Reserves for the next study.

I was also hoping for closer to 300K oz pa not 250K, which significantly affects the IRR. (in the production plan they do mine close to 300K pa in the first 7 years)

I was also expecting the capex numbers like what's presented but in AUD, so way more, again affecting IRR. Looking at the capex breakdown in the appendix nothing really jumps out at me as strange. Maybe thinking in AUD instead of USD was a mistake. Agree 25% is poor but on $1800 POG which I think is ancient history. The IRR and NPV on $2300 looks very good.

Gold might be over $3000 by the time this gets to BFS, but you obviously can't bank on that right now.

They've updated their gantt chart with the indicative timeline to development. ESIA is taken off so assume it's gone to the government with the PFS for the Exploitation Permit. I wonder if that's the same thing as an ML or there's another hoop. Doesn't look like it.

 

[mullokintyre]

Because I away trecking in the US, I have notbeen keeping track of things.
Hence I was surprised to see that a tradeat 25 I had entered months ago got taken out.
Yesterday when Igot a chance to check the market it was back to 21.5, so I bought my parcel back cheaper.
This is good for my personal portfolio, but not so good for my precarious foothold in the yearly comp.
mick

 

[Sean K]

As expected, PFS and then CR. Surprised they didn't just do it at the same time. Maybe because the PFS came in slightly unders...

Hopefully they get enough support to get funding up to BFS but I doubt it. Not sure if anyone is going to put in too much money without the Exploitation License in the bag.