PDI - Predictive Discovery

[Sean K]

PDI still tracking well since the 15c bottom. Going to be a party once (if) they get a permit to mine it next year.

 

[Sean K]

Another 52 week high today.
14.7 million shares traded last Thursday.
Somebody bought a big chunk.
Could they also be looking at a potential takeover for this one?
Mick

Once they get the permit to mine it, the risk will be removed and someone will certainly want to add 5m + free milling ounces to their portfolio, even if it's in the middle of coup central.

 

[IvoryWolf]

Some downwards action over the past month, then some stabilisation above the moving averages and now testing resistance once again - what's in store now? Let's see...

Here's an update to prior analysis provided just under a month ago:

 

[Sean K]

Meh, nothing really to crow about here. They need to get the ESIA done before Xmas, will be disappointing if they let that slide right like turning the SS into a PFS now due Q1 next year. Resource update not due till H2 24 but surely they will do one with the PFS as well. There's enough drilling to upgrade NEB and BC further and add some ounces. Also 800W has enough holes for an inferred resource. Should be cracking 6Moz soon I think.

I've been looking into the crystal ball and think Endeavor Mining might be running the ruler over this once the PFS makes it clear it's a goer and they get a permit to mine in the monkey park.

Not sure what 6Moz will be worth for a TO. Maybe a billion or around 45-48c? Haven't got a yardstick for any recent TOs in WAf for this type of deposit. Need to do some more hack work for a likely valuation.

Still tracking up, but 24c a problem.

 

[IvoryWolf]

Meh, nothing really to crow about here. ...

Still tracking up, but 24c a problem.

You got it @Sean K - that resistance is definitely the problem!

 

[Sean K]

PDI dropped through the upward trend. If I was short term trading it that would have been a sell signal but I have a medium term plan to hold it until they get an excise from the national park and a ML. That might not happen, so a significant risk. But, I think they'll get a green light due to precedence and the value this is going to bring to the government and local community. Once they do get the license though, one of the mid-majors will most likely take them over. Tipping Endeavour, but could be Alglo as well.

 

[mullokintyre]

PDI dropped through the upward trend. If I was short term trading it that would have been a sell signal but I have a medium term plan to hold it until they get an excise from the national park and a ML. That might not happen, so a significant risk. But, I think they'll get a green light due to precedence and the value this is going to bring to the government and local community. Once they do get the license though, one of the mid-majors will most likely take them over. Tipping Endeavour, but could be Alglo as well.

View attachment 167653

From their website

PDI has launched a range of studies and programs, to progress the Bankan Gold Project towards development. Baseline social, environmental and biodiversity studies are underway as part of an extensive Environmental & Social Impact Assessment (ESIA). A Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) is currently in progress and due to be completed in Q1 2024, having been recently upgraded from a Scoping Study.

The PFS, together with the ESIA, are key documents in the permitting process for the Project, and PDI is aiming to secure an Exploitation Permit in mid-2024.

I guess we will know by mid 2024 as to whether there is any chance of them excising the mine section from the NP.
Although there will always be pressure from outside interests (WEF, Environmentalists etc), the money to be earned will not only speak louder to the military and security cadres who run the joint, it will positively yell.
I am prepared to take the risk, and have a good chunk of PDI.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

From their website

I guess we will know by mid 2024 as to whether there is any chance of them excising the mine section from the NP.
Although there will always be pressure from outside interests (WEF, Environmentalists etc), the money to be earned will not only speak louder to the military and security cadres who run the joint, it will positively yell.
I am prepared to take the risk, and have a good chunk of PDI.
Mick

Yeah, pencil in mid year. Hopefully gold is cooking at the same time.

I think there would be more risk with this being in a NP or on traditional owners land in Australia, Canada or the US. In WAf it's just about the economics. Perceived risk is huge though which explains the discount to projects there. A coup every other month doesn't help.

 

[mullokintyre]

I have chosen PDI as my goldie in the 2024 comp.
I am willing to take a risk on the approvals being granted causing it to be re rated big time.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

I have chosen PDI as my goldie in the 2024 comp.
I am willing to take a risk on the approvals being granted causing it to be re rated big time.
Mick

We're in bed with PDI, Mick. Until it hits 30c. Then, I'm buying a new boat.

 

[mullokintyre]

PDI has fallen along with all of my other gold stocks as the intelligencia among investors have flocked back to the US dollar nd dumped PM's.
I find this behaviour a little strange.
The wold is awash with USD denominated debt, now over 33 trillion and rising.
And if you believe this artcle , is about to get more.
From Diacalle

Mick

 

[Sean K]

PDI slipped back to 18.5c not far above my last buy at 17.5c, so looking interesting again for me.

2024 is going to be a big year for PDI and could determine whether it gets up or dies and terrible death.

ESIA, PFS and then Permitting with MRE upgrade are going to be critical. Note the dotted lines post those activities on this gantt chart. I think it means everything stops or gets pushed right if they don't get the Exploitation Permit around mid year. Seems to be all hinging on that decision by the Malawi Government. Hopefully no chimps wander into the project area or any radical environmentalists plant one in the next few months.

Spending about $10m a quarter and had $35m at the end of Sep, so they only have 3 quarters worth. That means CR in the next couple of months I think.

 

[mullokintyre]

Quarterly out today.
The most important milestones comes before the end of the current quarter when both the PFS and ESIA are put out.
AS @Sean K pointed out, they will need to do a Cap Raise to fund further activities beyond this year .
I am wondering if the the Company's thinking that by planning of the two events before the end of the quarter will be good enough result to trigger a rise in the SP and thus provide a base for the CR.
There is of course then the need to have access to further capital to actually produce anything from the mine.
I am hoping there is a takeover bid for the company after this first quarter.
Whichever way, i plan to be out around this time.
Not sure what will provide the driver for SP after that.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Quarterly out today.
The most important milestones comes before the end of the current quarter when both the PFS and ESIA are put out.
AS @Sean K pointed out, they will need to do a Cap Raise to fund further activities beyond this year .
I am wondering if the the Company's thinking that by planning of the two events before the end of the quarter will be good enough result to trigger a rise in the SP and thus provide a base for the CR.
There is of course then the needs to ghave acess to further capital to actually produce anything from the mine.
I am hoping there is atakeover bid for the ompany after this first quarter.
Whichever way, i plan to be out around this time.
Not sure what will provide the driver for SP after that.
Mick
View attachment 169755

They might need to do a CR before they get the next MRE and permitting done mid year. Once they're done I think takeover. Seems like a no-brainer bolt on for one of the big African players. Just a matter of time. PRU still have some spare cash and could easily take this after they clean up ORR.

 

[mullokintyre]

Howdy @debtfree , my comment for yearly comp.
PDI still proving to be a disappointment for me, it seems to tick all the right boxes, but as usual Mrs market finds something wrong with it.
My biggest hope is that it gets swallowed up by another West African player.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Howdy @debtfree , my comment for yearly comp.
PDI still proving to be a disappointment for me, it seems to tick all the right boxes, but as usual Mrs market finds something wrong with it.
My biggest hope is that it gets swallowed up by another West African player.
Mick

I think everyone is holding their breath on the outcome of the ESIA and Permitting. It's make or break. Until that's done I think we're in a holding pattern.

Fingers crossed a monkey doesn't wander into the project area in the next couple of months.

 

[mullokintyre]

Some encouraging drilling at Youre seems to suggest the deposit is likely to get bigger.
Will make it that much more attractive for takeover.

Mick

 

[Sean K]

Some encouraging drilling at Youre seems to suggest the deposit is likely to get bigger.
Will make it that much more attractive for takeover.
View attachment 171365
Mick

Am I in the right thread?

 

[mullokintyre]

Am I in the right thread?

Your are, but I am not.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Yikes! Houston, we have a problem.

This fall has triggered some selling.

Maybe a monkey has walked into the project area.