PDI - Predictive Discovery

[Sean K]

With the surge in gold prices, and the surge in PDI share price, I bet they go to market sooner than later.
PRU would no doubt participate given that the strike price for the CR will be at a discount to the SP, and they will have a fair bit of money to splash.
I am in for the short term play, don't know what will happen long term.
A nice 20% return will do me nicely.
Mick

Looks fairly safe to buy between these lines and not lose, or make, much money.

I don't think it's going to break through that red line without the Exploitation Permit and/or PRU buying it.

Downside limited while POG is going OK and there's no prospective coup against the coup.

Maybe the new MREs and resource conversion noted on the above slide before the end of the year could be a catalyst.

 

[mullokintyre]

PRU will surely make a bid for the rest of PDi it does not own.
PDI market cap today is $670 mill AUD.
Given PRU already owns $134 million woth of PI shares, that leaves $5 0 odd to spend to get the lot.
Allowing for a 20% premium brings it back to $670 mill AUD.
The latest PRU quarterly has PRU with 643 mill USD in cash and bullion, $84 mill in investments, plus USD300mill in undrawn debt.
So they could just swallow the lot.
Given they have been producing around 130 mill USD per quarter from their own mines. it would not take long to replenish the reserves.
Maybe they will wait until the EISA permit is completed.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

PRU will surely make a bid for the rest of PDi it does not own.
PDI market cap today is $670 mill AUD.
Given PRU already owns $134 million woth of PI shares, that leaves $5 0 odd to spend to get the lot.
Allowing for a 20% premium brings it back to $670 mill AUD.
The latest PRU quarterly has PRU with 643 mill USD in cash and bullion, $84 mill in investments, plus USD300mill in undrawn debt.
So they could just swallow the lot.
Given they have been producing around 130 mill USD per quarter from their own mines. it would not take long to replenish the reserves.
Maybe they will wait until the EISA permit is completed.
Mick

Mick, I think due to PRU's Sudan experience they'll want to reduce risk a little more, unless they are inside, which isn't at all impossible. They might know the results of the EISA and EP before the Mining Ministry does. SK

 

[Sean K]

I didn't think we'd see this @mullokintyre until the approvals were given. Just intraday, but looks positive.

 

[Sean K]

Sold out of PDI a couple of weeks ago @debtfree on the RSG issues and also wanting to lock in some profits. Still hoping it holds up for the yearly comp but I don't know. Even with gold running again another Junta might make a similar play soon and they'll all be in the toilet. The West African discount premium is alive and well. Sad they couldn't manage this all a bit better for the good of their own people.

 

[mullokintyre]

Sold out of PDI a couple of weeks ago @debtfree on the RSG issues and also wanting to lock in some profits. Still hoping it holds up for the yearly comp but I don't know. Even with gold running again another Junta might make a similar play soon and they'll all be in the toilet. The West African discount premium is alive and well. Sad they couldn't manage this all a bit better for the good of their own people.

in the current climate, I don't expect to see takeover of anything in West Africa, unless its by an org that has paid off the government and getting it on the cheap.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

I can't see that this deposit is going to turn into anything significant. Perhaps it gets bigger at depth once they track these shoots but while there's some OK grades the intersections are pretty thin and it's only about 200x200 ish.

The cross section B-B gives a decent indication of how lightly mineralised this blob is. No idea how they're interpreting the mineralised area down there in the bottom left when there's no drilling done into it.

 

[JonnyBubbleWrap]

I can't see that this deposit is going to turn into anything significant. Perhaps it gets bigger at depth once they track these shoots but while there's some OK grades the intersections are pretty thin and it's only about 200x200 ish.

The cross section B-B gives a decent indication of how lightly mineralised this blob is. No idea how they're interpreting the mineralised area down there in the bottom left when there's no drilling done into it.

View attachment 188532View attachment 188533
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I have a subscription to newsrush - and here is the summary of the latest report:

stockSavvy.ai - AI-Powered SEC Filing Analysis

newsrush.ai

 

[Sean K]

I have a subscription to newsrush - and here is the summary of the latest report:

stockSavvy.ai - AI-Powered SEC Filing Analysis

newsrush.ai

That's an interesting site and summary.

Most is easily picked out of the report but the risks, positives and negatives are another step in evaluating the announcement.

They probably need to add in the general risk that it's West Africa and the Junta could change the goal posts at any moment.

Thanks.

Positives​

• Multiple high-grade gold intercepts were discovered at Fouwagbe, exceeding expectations.
• The updated geological interpretation supports further drilling and resource definition.
• Resource definition drilling is progressing well at both Fouwagbe and Sounsoun targets.
• Maiden Mineral Resource estimates are expected in early 2025 for both targets.

Negatives​

• Deeply weathered profile at Fouwagbe (up to 200m) and lack of outcrop make interpretations challenging.
• The relationship between drilling orientation and mineralized structures may introduce sampling bias.

Risks​

• The deeply weathered profile at Fouwagbe (up to 200m below surface) and lack of outcrop may impact the accuracy of geological interpretations.
• Uncertainty regarding the relationship between drilling orientation and the orientation of key mineralised structures could introduce sampling bias.
• Permit renewal process is ongoing for the exploration permits.

 

[JonnyBubbleWrap]

That's an interesting site and summary.

Most is easily picked out of the report but the risks, positives and negatives are another step in evaluating the announcement.

They probably need to add in the general risk that it's West Africa and the Junta could change the goal posts at any moment.

Thanks.

Positives​

• Multiple high-grade gold intercepts were discovered at Fouwagbe, exceeding expectations.
• The updated geological interpretation supports further drilling and resource definition.
• Resource definition drilling is progressing well at both Fouwagbe and Sounsoun targets.
• Maiden Mineral Resource estimates are expected in early 2025 for both targets.

Negatives​

• Deeply weathered profile at Fouwagbe (up to 200m) and lack of outcrop make interpretations challenging.
• The relationship between drilling orientation and mineralized structures may introduce sampling bias.

Risks​

• The deeply weathered profile at Fouwagbe (up to 200m below surface) and lack of outcrop may impact the accuracy of geological interpretations.
• Uncertainty regarding the relationship between drilling orientation and the orientation of key mineralised structures could introduce sampling bias.
• Permit renewal process is ongoing for the exploration permits.

no problem - happy to help.
I find it - newrush - great for the summaries etc. Makes life a hell of a lot easier.

 

[Sean K]

no problem - happy to help.
I find it - newrush - great for the summaries etc. Makes life a hell of a lot easier.

Yeah, it's good. Feel free to cut and paste in the highlights, as well as the link. Cheers, SK

 

[Sean K]

I got prematurely excited when this broke 30c intraday a few weeks ago and it's come off back down to support and holding on very tenuously. Surprised it's held up OK really, considering the Mali kerfuffle.

These results aren't really that exciting. These are the best out of about 50 holes and there's not much either side of these intersections that I can see in the details. Because there's so much waste between the intersections it's impossible to guess what an initial MRE could be.

The MRE for this was supposed to be this year (in Oct it was announced "late 2024") but they've pushed the goal posts back into the Ponsford Stand. Poor darts.

I wonder if PRU are thinking that they better get on with the takeover before someone else comes knocking, considering the DEG deal.

 

[Sean K]

Some OK hits but it still doesn't look like it's adding up to much here.

The timeline for all the upgrades and initial MREs seem to be sliding further right.

The Cadastre system has been down for about 6 months now. Surely they've just pulled the plug out, waited 5 seconds and then restarted it.

 

[mullokintyre]

Sold out of PDI, the chance for a takeover within the short term has evaporated I reckon.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Sold out of PDI, the chance for a takeover within the short term has evaporated I reckon.
Mick

Agree short term. More and more backwaters are working out you can claim for some 'back taxes' and get away with the bribe. Troubling.

But, I'm taking a punt in the 2025 yearly comp that these losers will get the mining licence and then be taken over by PRU for not too much more than their current price, but enough to be green by the end of the year.

Sold out of this a few months ago and not game to put my own money back into it at this point.