PDI - Predictive Discovery

[mullokintyre]

Once they have the EP then I think a $1b MC is possible based on a very rough peer comparison with the likes of TIE and WAF when they have similar sized resource bases. Current PDI MC around $600m. DEG have double the ounces and are on $2.8b MC. So, PDI could still double from here if the stars align and they get the EP and there's no coups, minus the WAf discount.

Having said that, I don't know why they're announcing this if it's just a short suspension and potential delay in the EP. Maybe there's some negative media about that I haven't seen. Cadastre is just a computer software system. Maybe they've been hacked by Nigeria.


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Market initially seemed to shrug it off, but this afternoon is down 17%.
Might be inclined to buy back in if it drops any further.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Market initially seemed to shrug it off, but this afternoon is down 17%.
Might be inclined to buy back in if it drops any further.
Mick

They have failed in their communications on this issue. How hard would have it been to tell the market exactly what this Cadastre thing is and that it's just a short term technical issue and will be back up and running in X days and not put the processing of the EP back any meaningful time. Pathetic comms. The market obviously thinks there's something materially wrong.

 

[Sean K]

@mullokintyre @barney @The Triangle I've been googling for the past 18 hours trying to find any other reference to this cadastral system being temporarily closed for maintenance and there's nothing. Nada. I've sent an email of complaint to PDI suggesting that their comms on this matter have been pathetic and requested more information regarding this ann and suggested they need to update it with more info to clarify exactly what's going on. I expect crickets. If you guys like, please do the same. Email Brad as per address here.

 

[mullokintyre]

@mullokintyre @barney @The Triangle I've been googling for the past 18 hours trying to find any other reference to this cadastral system being temporarily closed for maintenance and there's nothing. Nada. I've sent an email of complaint to PDI suggesting that their comms on this matter have been pathetic and requested more information regarding this ann and suggested they need to update it with more info to clarify exactly what's going on. I expect crickets. If you guys like, please do the same. Email Brad as per address here.

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I have a seaky suspicion that PDI will not be ina positon to answer your queery because they have no idea why this sudden maintenance is required, nor when it is likely to be up again.
I am going to bet that the cyber security at some of these African Government departments might be a tad lax.
Chinese hackers getting into African data systems would not surprise me.
Gives them a chance to run a ruler over the data and see what they can steal from western countries.
Mick

 

[The Triangle]

pfft... take a break from looking at pennystocks for a while and hits the fan. I can not imagine there would be any news out of west africa in general. Murders, rapes, robbery, etc doesnt get news articles. So a malfunction, upgrade, or other information on a government software system would hardly make the news.

If tengraph or mto went down for WA.... would anyone really bother to write about it? Think BHP would put out a press release??? I doubt it. But these guys probably just sitting around the boardroom biting their nails and figured put something out rahter than risk getting in trouble 6 months down the road ....

I have a seaky suspicion that PDI will not be ina positon to answer your queery because they have no idea why this sudden maintenance is required, nor when it is likely to be up again.
I am going to bet that the cyber security at some of these African Government departments might be a tad lax.
Chinese hackers getting into African data systems would not surprise me.
Gives them a chance to run a ruler over the data and see what they can steal from western countries.
Mick

Why would the hackers need to get in there? It's africa. Pay them $100 USD and you could get anything you want. I think the CCP and Russian infliences in Africa have made resource investments even more risky now.

 

[Sean K]

pfft... take a break from looking at pennystocks for a while and hits the fan. I can not imagine there would be any news out of west africa in general. Murders, rapes, robbery, etc doesnt get news articles. So a malfunction, upgrade, or other information on a government software system would hardly make the news.

If tengraph or mto went down for WA.... would anyone really bother to write about it? Think BHP would put out a press release??? I doubt it. But these guys probably just sitting around the boardroom biting their nails and figured put something out rahter than risk getting in trouble 6 months down the road ....


Why would the hackers need to get in there? It's africa. Pay them $100 USD and you could get anything you want. I think the CCP and Russian infliences in Africa have made resource investments even more risky now.

PDI deliberately made this market sensitive yet there's no news from anyone else anywhere that this has occurred. If I don't get a response from the company before open tomorrow I'm donning parachute.

 

[mullokintyre]

It

PDI deliberately made this market sensitive yet there's no news from anyone else anywhere that this has occurred. If I don't get a response from the company before open tomorrow I'm donning parachute.

It may be something to do with "keeping the market informed " rules from the ASX.
Better to make it market sensitive than have to front up to the headmaster.
Or it might not.
My spidey senses on this are tingling.
I smell a rodent.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

It

It may be something to do with "keeping the market informed " rules from the ASX.
Better to make it market sensitive than have to front up to the headmaster.
Or it might not.
My spidey senses on this are tingling.
I smell a rodent.
Mick

Ended up selling the last bit of PDI.
Whatever the issues are with the cadastral system might be, I suspect there are going to be changes announced over mining permits and how much the government/Generals want to siphon off.
Had a profit, just not as big as it would have been had I sold last Thursday.
Might put it back into WAF, it seems to have become unloved.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

PRU don't seem to think the Cadastral thing is a problem. This must have been the extra volume yesterday.

Who buys 19.9% of a company and not want to take it over?

This might repair the SP back to where it was before the Cadastral hand grenade was thrown in the coop. Might take the opportunity to thin out a bit. Holding too much of this.

No response to my random unprofessional bleating email of course.

 

[Miner]

PDI don't seem to think the Cadastral thing is a problem. This must have been the extra volume yesterday.

Who buys 19.9% of a company and not want to take it over?

This might repair the SP back to where it was before the Cadastral hand grenade was thrown in the coop. Might take the opportunity to thin out a bit. Holding too much of this.

No response to my random unprofessional bleating email of course.


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@Sean K Once I read the announcment I was thinking of you and your post on ASF. I am glad, my thought was right. Happy day for you and PDI holders I hope seeing the strength on PDI

 

[Sean K]

Elouise doesn't even mention the permitting issue.

PRU must know that it's going to get up, or they're taking a very, very big risk.

Perseus, which already mines gold in Ghana and Cote D’Ivoire, and has an undeveloped growth project in Sudan, sold its stake in a Canadian-listed miner to help fund its increased shareholding in Predictive Discovery.

Perseus paid $US65.6 million ($96 million) to lift its stake in Predictive to 19.9 per cent on Thursday, using cash from selling its position in the Canadian miner for $US45.03 million. The net outlay for the stake in Predictive was $US20.19 million.

African gold mines can be extremely lucrative, but risky. Sovereign risk is the reason Perseus trades at a steep discount to its peers; Northern Star and Evolution mine in Australia and North America.

The $US364.8 million ($541 million) full-year net profit posted by Perseus in August was near the $639 million full-year net profit posted by the flagship Australian gold miner on the ASX, Northern Star.

Yet, Northern Star’s $16.97 billion market capitalisation is five times larger than Perseus’ $3.36 billion valuation.

Perseus, which listed on the ASX in 2004 as an explorer in the Cote d’Ivoire, said on Thursday it does not plan to buy out Predictive – which has a market capitalisation of $551 million.

Bankan, the undeveloped Guinean project, is located 550 kilometres by road from Conakry, the capital of the West African coastal country. The Bankan licence area covers 356 square kilometres in four exploration permits: Kaninko, Saman, Bokoro and Argo.

Three permits are held by wholly owned subsidiaries of Predictive. The fourth, Argo, is held in a joint venture with the owners of local company Argo Mining, through which Predictive has the right to earn 90 per cent through the exploration phase and acquire 100 per cent at decision-to-mine.

 

[Sean K]

PDI put out a material announcement that Cadastral is closed and the processing of permit applications is suspended then come out with a new presentation today, 10 days later, that doesn't even mention it.

At least the SP is recovering.

 

[Sean K]

PDI preso at Beaver Creek and the MD gives a few short updates on permitting.

AT 7min mark he reckons the ESIA is going to be approved within the next 4 weeks and EP in Q4 this year, so that hardly sounds like the Cadastral issue is actually an issue. Also a comment on 'government' priorities at 14.20, take that with a grain of salt I guess. Still not sure why they raised Cadastral when none of the other companies operating in Guinea thought in necessary.

Presentation here.

Andy sounds a bit out of breath, or nervous.

 

[Sean K]

Ann on recent 30km of drilling out.

There's some other gold in their other permits but so far nothing Bankan - like. All pretty thin hits and no blow your sox off grades. They might add a few more ounces to a future mining schedule, but not many.

More interesting is the near Bankan drilling to convert some more of what they have to probable for the DFS and increase the LOM.

 

[Sean K]

It's been six weeks since PDI thought they needed to inform the market that the Cadastre system was temporarily closed, but haven't provided an update to the market. Is it still closed, or what?

Also expected some additional drilling results at Sounsoun which were 'imminent' three weeks ago.

Looks like this has a ceiling of around 28c until they get the permitting sorted, or PRU decide to mop it up. Probably won't do that until the risk is removed, but it won't be this cheap once that happens, so risk reward. Hopefully this support level is a new floor, and it should be with POG going ATH to ATH. But, if POG has an inevitable correction, who knows.

 

[mullokintyre]

Back into PDI after selling the last of my PRU.
The quarterly out this morning has lots of drilling results, most of which we already knew about.
Plenty more drilling planned to produce an updated mre.
Based on current expenditure, they have about a years worth of cash to keep spending.
Given that PRU alrwady has 19% of the company and is producing cash like there is no tomorrow, it would not surprise me if there was some sort of cash tie in to get them into the time frame beyond a year.
But I could be wrong.
Anyway, with the current surge in gold, I expect anything even remotely connected to gold to be up.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Their next MRE should include 800W by the sound of it and upgrade some of the Inferred to Indicated. BC has only half of the resource in Indicated. Can't see any drilling at depth at Bankan for that Inferred to be upgraded there. Not sure why, looks like low hanging fruit. They might get another 500Koz into Probable in the next MRE. Then another 500K before the DFS, so a 4Moz mining plan or initial 16 year mining. That will be good for financing for PRU's plans. Surely they have already spoken to Blackrock to use their 15% shareholding to take it over. T.Rowe and Franklin own another 10% so all they need to do is have a beer with them and get their nod and a wink.

The MM&Gs Cadastre System is still 'closed'. Six weeks for supposedly some software to be fixed. They're holding something back on this. I won't say lying, because that might raise the concerns of ASIC.

So, I doubt they will actually get the Exploitation Permit that they promised for Q4 this year. I'd reduce expectations on them getting this sorted before the end of the year. Sounds like there's still lots of 'consultation' to be done on the ESIA before the permit can even be officially submitted. All sounds like Africa to me. But, I doubt they have a blue-banded bee to be concerned about.

 

[Sean K]

Back into PDI after selling the last of my PRU.
The quarterly out this morning has lots of drilling results, most of which we already knew about.
Plenty more drilling planned to produce an updated mre.
Based on current expenditure, they have about a years worth of cash to keep spending.
Given that PRU alrwady has 19% of the company and is producing cash like there is no tomorrow, it would not surprise me if there was some sort of cash tie in to get them into the time frame beyond a year.
But I could be wrong.
Anyway, with the current surge in gold, I expect anything even remotely connected to gold to be up.
Mick

Mick, there's actually quite a lot of new drill results in this one. There's a couple of targets that should turn into inferred resources in the next few months. Looks promising for some incremental ounces to enhance the DFS. That's not planned until late next year so plenty of time to get them in. Should materially increase the LOM in the DFS.

While it looks like they've got enough money to get them just to DFS I wouldn't be surprised if they go to market again in the next six months. They're spending about $10m a quarter so the $40m they had at end of Sep will only go so far comfortably. I'm guessing an MRE update later this year and follow it up with a CR. Hopefully the market likes it.

That's if PRU don't take it over first and then no CR required.

 

[Sean K]

@mullokintyre quite a bit of news supposedly in the next 2 months. This is the plan from their Sep preso.

If they didn't have the national park hanging over them this would be going bananas, or owned by a major.

 

[mullokintyre]

Mick, there's actually quite a lot of new drill results in this one. There's a couple of targets that should turn into inferred resources in the next few months. Looks promising for some incremental ounces to enhance the DFS. That's not planned until late next year so plenty of time to get them in. Should materially increase the LOM in the DFS.

While it looks like they've got enough money to get them just to DFS I wouldn't be surprised if they go to market again in the next six months. They're spending about $10m a quarter so the $40m they had at end of Sep will only go so far comfortably. I'm guessing an MRE update later this year and follow it up with a CR. Hopefully the market likes it.

That's if PRU don't take it over first and then no CR required.

With the surge in gold prices, and the surge in PDI share price, I bet they go to market sooner than later.
PRU would no doubt participate given that the strike price for the CR will be at a discount to the SP, and they will have a fair bit of money to splash.
I am in for the short term play, don't know what will happen long term.
A nice 20% return will do me nicely.
Mick