PDI - Predictive Discovery

[Sean K]

Looks like they have a plan to do a CR each year for around $50m in Apr-May. I guess we'll be here at this time again in 2025 with the SP still around 20c.

 

[Sean K]

As expected, this has stayed in the toilet since the CR around the 20c mark. I was half hoping that getting the $50m might have been seen as a positive in reducing funding risk for the next 12 months. And, whoever is chipping in the big bucks must be pretty confident they'll get the EL. Hoping this gets above 21c by the end of the year to make my number green in the yearly comp.

 

[mullokintyre]

PDI is another of my picks in the yearly comp.
despite the increase in gold price, it is down 10% on the year.
Why ?
mick

 

[Sean K]

PDI is another of my picks in the yearly comp.
despite the increase in gold price, it is down 10% on the year.
Why ?
mick

Frustrating, yes. PFS left 2Moz out of the mining plan, Capex higher than expected and crap IRR, big CR at a decent discount, average exploration success, perceived country risk and waiting for the Exploitation Permit.

If they get the EP this year, put another million ounces into the Reserve next year and gold goes to $3k then NPV could be close to $2B. A lot of 'ifs' still.

 

[Sean K]

Not sure why this is getting smashed unless there's a stray monkey in the latest drill results.

Their infil and exploration drilling has been pretty average of late.

Everyone is holding their breath in regard to the environmental clearances and EP.

 

[mullokintyre]

PDI still declines
Got crunched in the latest gold sell off.
Not sure why, it did not rocket up when gold did, just a gentle rise.
Starting to lose faith in PDI.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

More drilling results out, looks ok.
Problem is, not sure if 207k oz over a 12 year mine life is anything to get excited about.
mick

 

[Sean K]

Some pretty good holes into BC and 800W that will add some ounces to the next MRE upgrade, DFS and mining plan. Not many though. 100-200K ounces perhaps, just a pluck. There's probably more ounces to be added to the underground mining plan in NEB in the future which is a long way away. Would be nice to see more ounces around the 10-12 year mark and possible extensions out to 15 years.

Most importantly they've given us an update on permitting and it's not much of an update with no projected timeline of when they get the official tick from the government. Is it 3 months? 12 months? The EP process on their last Gantt Chart to production had a period marked 2024 H1 to mid H2. I suppose it's in the hands of the three key agencies in the decision loop.

from

 

[Sean K]

If Guinea can approve this, then why not a little gold mine?

 

[The Triangle]

If Guinea can approve this, then why not a little gold mine?

View attachment 180827

PDI needs more Chinese money

 

[Sean K]

PDI needs more Chinese money

Or, PRU money. About time they took a bite.

This might force a few others to pick some shares up. What we holders want is a bidding war.

 

[mullokintyre]

Or, PRU money. About time they took a bite.

This might force a few others to pick some shares up. What we holders want is a bidding war.


View attachment 182564

The PRU foray should account for around 331 mill shares.
340 mill shares yesterday.
Another 17mill so far today, mostly on match on the open @23.
So thats about 27 mill over the two days outside the purchase.
Lots of kiddies like us playing on the periphery.
Mick
Would

 

[Sean K]

The PRU foray should account for around 331 mill shares.
340 mill shares yesterday.
Another 17mill so far today, mostly on match on the open @23.
So thats about 27 mill over the two days outside the purchase.
Lots of kiddies like us playing on the periphery.
Mick
Would

I wonder who they hoovered those shares up from? It wasn't on market. That's a big chunk.

I didn't pick up any more. It's 12% of my holdings now so don't want to go nuts while the permitting is yet to be done. Although, maybe this is the time to have some courage and back in the idea that it's too important for the government not to allow to go ahead. Still the usual WAf risks too.

If the permitting gets through you'd think PRU will keep buying or just go all in.

 

[mullokintyre]

I wonder who they hoovered those shares up from? It wasn't on market. That's a big chunk.

I didn't pick up any more. It's 12% of my holdings now so don't want to go nuts while the permitting is yet to be done. Although, maybe this is the time to have some courage and back in the idea that it's too important for the government not to allow to go ahead. Still the usual WAf risks too.

If the permitting gets through you'd think PRU will keep buying or just go all in.

When I looked at the trades yesterday, there was a cross of around 300mill shares with a special code, may have been XT, or something similar, I don't remember what it was.
Unfortunately we can't go back and look at yesterdays trades to check.
This notice of ceasing to be a substantial holder from Capital DI might give us a clue.

The last transaction is the money one.
225 mill shares by way of sale agreement.
Edit:
I have no idea as to whether they will go all in or not, but it seems strange to just park 70 odd million bucks in PDI just for fun.
They said at this stage, they had no intention of issuing a fukk bid.
Perhaps they are waiting for the permits to go through, then issue a bid.
That way they have a blocking stake for anyone else.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

When I looked at the trades yesterday, there was a cross of around 300mill shares with a special code, may have been XT, or something similar, I don't remember what it was.
Unfortunately we can't go back and look at yesterdays trades to check.
This notice of ceasing to be a substantial holder from Capital DI might give us a clue.

The last transaction is the money one.
225 mill shares by way of sale agreement.
Edit:
I have no idea as to whether they will go all in or not, but it seems strange to just park 70 odd million bucks in PDI just for fun.
They said at this stage, they had no intention of issuing a fukk bid.
Perhaps they are waiting for the permits to go through, then issue a bid.
That way they have a blocking stake for anyone else.
Mick
View attachment 182630

Here's the explanation for the sale.

Mining services company Capital Limited announced the sale of its entire shareholding in Predictive Discovery (PDI) on Wednesday, to Perseus Mining for a total cash consideration of AUD 47.3m (£24.42m).

The London-listed firm said the transaction involved the sale of 225,349,418 shares at 21 Australian cents each.

As part of the agreement, Capital and Perseus established a profit-sharing arrangement, under which any profit derived from a subsequent sale of the shares by Perseus to a third party before 31 December 2025 would be split equally between the two companies.

Additionally, the agreement provided Capital with certain options should Perseus initiate a takeover offer or propose a scheme of arrangement for PDI shares at a price greater than 21 Australian cents per share before the end of 2025.

In such scenarios, Capital said it would have the option to repurchase the shares at the original sale price, subject to certain conditions, or Perseus could cancel the call option by paying a cash fee to Capital equal to the premium offered.

Perseus indicated that it was not currently engaged in any discussions with PDI, and had no immediate plans to acquire control or make a takeover offer for the company, barring any significant changes in PDI’s shareholding or actions.

Capital said it decided to sell its stake in PDI to reallocate funds into its broader business, with a focus on reducing debt levels.
The company’s board believed the sale was in the best interest of shareholders.

Jamie Boyton, Capital’s executive chairman, recused himself from all transaction negotiations and board voting on the sale due to a conflict of interest.

He also sold his personal holdings in PDI to Perseus under the same terms as the company’s transaction.

“Predictive Discovery has been an excellent investment for Capital, as well as an excellent client for Capital's drilling business,” said chief executive officer Peter Stokes.

“As Predictive moves towards permitting and then construction, we see this as the right time to recycle this investment back into the broader business, particularly to lower the group's debt levels.”

At 1018 BST, shares in Capital Limited were up 4.71% at 89.63p.

 

[mullokintyre]

just listned to BTL and his take on this one.
Does not believe there will be a takeover offer until PRU hav etheir BaNysanga Gold Project up and running, and all the required permits for PDI's Bankan project have been realised.
He suggested there will be chances to get into PDI again if the final mine [lan can get the annual production up to 300k ounces.
It gets it into rariefied air where some of the really big players might start to run their rulers over it.
Will take some profits Monday, but keep a smaller holding just in case.
One interesting point he made was that because the market seemed to be undervaluing those gold companies which were generating a good amount of cash , he thought there may be some more acquisitons come onto the market.
Given what has happened to SVL and new Regis, I am going to get out of most of my OZ based miners and juyt keep looking offshore.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Sold most of my PD at 24.
Looking to buy back in at a much later date when some foiirm mine design and costs are done for Bankan.
Its up 30% on my average buy, so no point in being greedy.
But have kept a small holding just so i keep getting the company news via email.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Sold most of my PD at 24.
Looking to buy back in at a much later date when some foiirm mine design and costs are done for Bankan.
Its up 30% on my average buy, so no point in being greedy.
But have kept a small holding just so i keep getting the company news via email.
Mick

Managed to be in ave 18c. This has paid for my cruise the past 2 days. I'm hoping it buys a house in the country in the next six months.

I don't think the EP is truly baked into the price yet, so there's still room to move when it does, or someone else wants to pip PRU.

Could also die a horrible death when there's another coup and gold is nationalised....

 

[mullokintyre]

PDI has helped my entry in the 2024 yearly comp to shoot up the lists.
probably has topped out, but with a little luck can at least maintain these levels till the end of the year.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

PDI has helped my entry in the 2024 yearly comp to shoot up the lists.
probably has topped out, but with a little luck can at least maintain these levels till the end of the year.
Mick

Once they have the EP then I think a $1b MC is possible based on a very rough peer comparison with the likes of TIE and WAF when they have similar sized resource bases. Current PDI MC around $600m. DEG have double the ounces and are on $2.8b MC. So, PDI could still double from here if the stars align and they get the EP and there's no coups, minus the WAf discount.

Having said that, I don't know why they're announcing this if it's just a short suspension and potential delay in the EP. Maybe there's some negative media about that I haven't seen. Cadastre is just a computer software system. Maybe they've been hacked by Nigeria.