OXR - Oxiana Limited

[Nyden]

Rocket science??? That float has been on the cards for ages...why wait until today? It has been calculated into the price for at least 3 weeks... This was purely the JBM takeover that affected this today, nothing more, nothing less (IMO)

Hmmm, agreed; but - ZFX certainly couldn't have hurt
Up until today - we didn't really know how much of a success the Nystar float would be; what amount of money it would bring in. Now we do - the effect of something becoming 'real' is always there.

 

[Annwn]

Broken Res of 4.05

Interesting pattern development -

Decending Triangle, generally considered to be bearish and usually found in downtrends
The upward break - the pattern has failed, but shows consolidation of the trend - Decending Triangles with a break up usually do quite well.

 

[Damuzzdu]

furthermore to the JBM rise is the fact that ZFX's Nyrstar float took place and the capital raised is likely to be used at making another bid for a copper and gold producer. Hence the increase in PNA and OXR today.

It aint rocket science or brain surgery to figure that one out.

ZFX will NOT be buying OXR. And OXR will not be able to take out ZFX either. Talks had been held, but as reported in the AFR some 3-4 weeks ago, the merger talks fell apart as OXR demand more from ZFX than ZFX was willing to give up.

That was the $200M that ZFX had spent building a position in OXR although ZFX would not confirm this outright.

This is not the first time that the OXR price has run like this....OXR might get a speeding ticket like they did 6 months ago. If they do and they will have to deny any talks are in place the price will get creamed...just like last time.

This is buy the rumour sell the facts.

Cheers
Muzz

 

[Spaghetti]

Seems many stocks went up yesterday in response to takover speculation except Compass Resources. There is one stock crying out for a new owner who has the management capability to get it firing along.

Hard to believe though that normal rumour trading would have pushed Oxiana over the $4.00 barrier, perhaps there is some buying being done.

 

[Nyden]

Seems many stocks went up yesterday in response to takover speculation except Compass Resources. There is one stock crying out for a new owner who has the management capability to get it firing along.

Hard to believe though that normal rumour trading would have pushed Oxiana over the $4.00 barrier, perhaps there is some buying being done.

Hmm, but OXR has been flirting with $4 for a while; and as you said - many stocks went up yesterday. Perhaps it's merely a case of everyone jumping back onboard for the run.

 

[bigdog]

ASX ANN this morning
30/10/2007 Oxianas Prominent Hill Copper Gold Project Update
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00776225

OXIANA'S PROMINENT HILL COPPER - GOLD PROJECT UPDATE

With less than 12 months to commissioning of the Prominent Hill copper-gold project a comprehensive review of costs and schedule has been undertaken. Scope changes, tight construction market conditions and cost increases in materials and equipment have resulted in a capital estimate increase of around 30%. Plant commissioning and first copper concentrate production is still expected to occur in the third quarter of 2008.

Buoyant market conditions and higher copper, gold and silver prices have significantly improved project economics since Board approval some 12 months ago, and the expected contribution of Prominent Hill to Oxiana's earnings and cash flows has increased substantially. Exploration success below and lateral to the current open pit has seen Oxiana already initiate studies aimed at expanding production and extending life of mine to at least 2030.

A major milestone was reached on 21st October when the top of the orebody was exposed some two months ahead of schedule.

Prominent Hill is one of the world's best new copper - gold mines with excellent competitive fundamentals - low cost, long life, substantial upside and in the mining friendly jurisdiction of South Australia.

Background
Prominent Hill is located 130km northwest of BHP Billiton's Olympic Dam copper - gold - uranium mine, in the Gawler Craton in central South Australia (Figure 1). It is 100% owned by Oxiana and was approved for development by the Oxiana Board in August 2006 following permitting by Primary Industry and Resources South Australia.

Update is nine pages

 

[greenfs]

I think that my holdings in this stock will become increased holdings in BHP script within the next 6 months.

 

[legs]

ZFX merger with OXR is my tip.. I would hope a takeover offer, if it did happen, would be in the order of $6. What do you think would be a fair offer?

 

[Caliente]

i'm a bit split over it really.

M&A activity would be sweet, but Owen has plans to grow OXR at a 10X scale - I'd like to see him continue to do that even if a merger were to happen.

 

[uhu]

Hegarthy claims the new mine (Prominent Hill) will helps double production (copper).

Well, Hegarthy is famous for optimism. But, if it is true and production will be duplicated, OXR's share price can be around 5-5,5 Aud. (?)

But, production willl start only the end of the next year, so...what do you think about short-middle term of OXR's price?

 

[Caliente]

share price'll be fine- Oxiana is a beast =)

This last few days is the most activity i've seen in a long time. lends some credence to those M&A rumours. Question is - does OXR represent good value as an acquisition? With all the news i no longer have a precise estimate.

hopefully ML will release a report soon.

 

[uhu]

share price'll be fine- Oxiana is a beast =)

This last few days is the most activity i've seen in a long time. lends some credence to those M&A rumours. Question is - does OXR represent good value as an acquisition? With all the news i no longer have a precise estimate.

hopefully ML will release a report soon.

What does "ML" mean?
And: at least have you got tips for tomorrow (maybe today in Australia)?

 

[Caliente]

hi maite - ML is shorthand for Merrill Lynch. They're my full service broker. I bought Oxiana a few years ago when they first initiated coverage on the stock under a dollar.

 

[uhu]

hi maite - ML is shorthand for Merrill Lynch. They're my full service broker. I bought Oxiana a few years ago when they first initiated coverage on the stock under a dollar.

Could you write it to this forum?
I've read some analysis about target price os Oxiana, generally it is about 4 aud, see macquieieie-etc bank, maybe one of suisse bank also.
US. markets: down, so i am not optimistic for tomorrow.

 

[bigdog]

Todays Age

http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...d/2007/10/30/1193618885061.html?page=fullpage
Oxiana to outlay $1bn on copper and gold

Barry Fitzgerald
October 31, 2007

HAVING missed out in the bidding duel for nickel producer Jubilee Mines to Xstrata's $3.1 billion king hit, Melbourne's Oxiana has got around to the more mundane task of repricing the development cost of its Prominent Hill copper/gold project in outback South Australia at $1.08 billion.

After allowing for an increased contingency, and ignoring an increase in the scope of the project, the new budget represents a 27 per cent increase on the $850 million estimate made in August last year.

But Oxiana's advice that Prominent Hill would generate bumper annual earnings before interest, tax and depreciation of $700 million at present metal prices and exchange rates limited the fallout.

The EBITDA potential points to a rapid payback on development costs of about 18 months for what is shaping up as at least a 22-year project. It is believed it was that earnings potential, along with access to a $2 billion credit line from ANZ, that put Oxiana in the hunt for Jubilee.

Oxiana would not confirm yesterday that it had lodged a losing bid to Xstrata's king hit. But Oxiana managing director Owen Hegarty said it was no secret that "we want to be in the nickel business one way or the other".

The cost increase at Prominent Hill makes Oxiana the latest resource developer to feel the impact of tight construction market conditions and cost increases in materials and equipment ”” the so-called downside to the commodities boom.

"I think we've nailed it now," Mr Hegarty said. "We've got that little bit of extra padding with the contingency (up from $75 million to $88 million) and we're only 12 months away from commissioning. Being within the zone of a 30 per cent increase inside of 12 months is actually not too bad when compared with what other people are experiencing.

"Just about every second you turn around, the price of something else has gone up."

The market had been softened up for the capital cost increase when Oxiana released its September quarter report last week. While the $230 million increase was as much as twice what some in the market were expecting, Oxiana's share price emerged relatively unscathed, easing 8 ¢ to $4.03 in yesterday's generally weaker market for mining stocks.

"We're never comfortable with things going up, except for the prices of our commodities. But in this case, it's probably not too bad," Mr Hegarty said.

He also highlighted that while Prominent Hill was initially being developed as a 10-year project, exploration at depth and to the west and east was pointing to a much longer life. "What we've got is something that will grow. Long-term planning is for a project out to 2030," he said.

The reporter owns Oxiana shares.

 

[dutchie]

Unusual depth at moment.
The ask volume is low (often going to zero).
No one wants to sell.
Price slowly rising.
Is there an announcement due?

Cheers

Dutchie

 

[Nyden]

Unusual depth at moment.
The ask volume is low (often going to zero).
No one wants to sell.
Price slowly rising.
Is there an announcement due?

Cheers

Dutchie

I think it's more a case of sheep reinforcement
Because the price is rising, people are assuming something must be in the works, therefore they buy - & in turn this raises the price more so; and the momentum just keeps going until people start realising that maybe nothing is actually going on!

Well, at least that's what I'm hoping :
I was going to double my holding in OXR this morning during the drop; went to the post office first; came home to a rise!

 

[uhu]

Well, aussie stocks sometimes move a bit strangely.

Most of miners went down in US and Australia, but OXR didn't...volume was strong. And, If we compare it with other stocks, we can notice an interesting thing.
There is an other stock with very strong trading volume and with price'change about 5%...this is Zinifex. But, Oxiana lifted but Zinifex went to downstair again...(????)

 

[Aargh!]

Well, aussie stocks sometimes move a bit strangely.

Most of miners went down in US and Australia, but OXR didn't...volume was strong. And, If we compare it with other stocks, we can notice an interesting thing.
There is an other stock with very strong trading volume and with price'change about 5%...this is Zinifex. But, Oxiana lifted but Zinifex went to downstair again...(????)

Zinifex is down because its ex dividend. Most of my mining portfolio went well today with a overall positive result for the day. I'm not sure if Oxiana is rising just on rumours of mergers.

 

[uhu]

Zinifex is down because its ex dividend. Most of my mining portfolio went well today with a overall positive result for the day. I'm not sure if Oxiana is rising just on rumours of mergers.

Well, Zinifex went down 1 aud because it's after exdiv date yesterday, but it went down an other 1 aud today - so the reason is not exdiv date.
Well, I have only two aussie stocks...but what mining stocks you have?