OXR - Oxiana Limited

[uhu]

uhu... put it this way.

I'd say it'd take some one with watermelon balls to short Oxiana tommorow.

-Cali

I am sorry, I don't understand...could you explain it?
I think it's a joke but - well, my english is not enough to interprete it.

 

[Nyden]

I am sorry, I don't understand...could you explain it?
I think it's a joke but - well, my english is not enough to interprete it.

He is implying that only someone very brave...or very stupid would short OXR today. Watermelons are of course a very large fruit, and balls...well, I'm sure even over there in hungary you know what those are

 

[uhu]

Thanks Nyden,

Well, yes, after the last nightmare in USA (see nasdaq) I have a beutiful morning. DAX is going up and aussies lifted.

Well, now I am thinking. To sell OXR or to not sell...the reason of higher prices is speculation. But, if BHP or ZFX or others won't buy for ex Oxiana...OXR will fal back.

So, maybe I wait. Probably speculation will not over, just (re)start, so, OXR's price will be higher (4,40-4,50). At this level I realise profit. Below 4,40 I will hold OXR and I will wait until Zinifex's annual meeting (2008 febr).

Dou you agree or not agree?

 

[Nyden]

Thanks Nyden,

Well, yes, after the last nightmare in USA (see nasdaq) I have a beutiful morning. DAX is going up and aussies lifted.

Well, now I am thinking. To sell OXR or to not sell...the reason of higher prices is speculation. But, if BHP or ZFX or others won't buy for ex Oxiana...OXR will fal back.

So, maybe I wait. Probably speculation will not over, just (re)start, so, OXR's price will be higher (4,40-4,50). At this level I realise profit. Below 4,40 I will hold OXR and I will wait until Zinifex's annual meeting (2008 febr).

Dou you agree or not agree?

I do feel that OXR is awfully high right now; whether it's based on pure speculation...or whether it's actually finally settled at $4 is a tough call for me to make. OXR has been tempting $4 for a long time now - it depends on your individual strategy?

OXR has excellent long term potential, & fantastic management. It may well drop, or it may very well keep rising. Long term though, I'm convinced it's going to keep rising, or be taken over.

I think if it was based on pure speculation - we would have seen a drop by now. Providing we can get through this latest subprime fallout, the holiday season is always good for a rally, I'm going to keep holding my OXR.

But, it really depends on what you're comfortable with - I feel comfortable with any minor drop in OXR, because I bought in at under $3, but - I'm not sure at the price you bought in

If you had a target price in mind though when entering OXR, if you feel comfortable with it - always stick with your gut! We all have different strategies

 

[greenfs]

You guys are forgetting that OXR is riding high on the ever upward trend in the gold price. I am very comfortable with the current sp and think thay OXR will make $xx with a little more time on its own.

At least for the moment the staff will forget about the BHP threat and can get on with business.

 

[bvbfan]

Been a long term holder of OXR since 10c but have used this strength (over enthusiasm) to short via CFD's a large portion of my holdings.

Copper and Zinc have declined and the only thing running the price up is the speculation of a takeover, which I've seen on numerous occasions only to see it drop back sharply.

I wouldn't rule out a drop to test $3 again.

As for OXR running on gold price, I really don't know why that is an issue.
OXR revenue from gold is about 15% (probably higher now with the move in prices). The only other reason to buy is the call option aspect for Martbabe which is at least 3 years away.

 

[bloggs_oz]

I'm in a similar position to you bvbfan. While I like oxiana as a longer term holding, I think at their current price they're overvalued. I hold OXR stock, but have also recently bought some PUT options.

I haven't been trading shares for long, but it does surprise me the number of people who think they can make money by buying a very volatile stock at all time highs on the back of speculation (no news) about a takeover.

 

[prawn_86]

I haven't been trading shares for long, but it does surprise me the number of people who think they can make money by buying a very volatile stock at all time highs on the back of speculation (no news) about a takeover.

I am in the same position/thought process as you, but i have read about succesful fund managers that will only buy a stock at an all time high. And only add to their position when it hits an all time high again.

Strange...but it works for them

 

[nomore4s]

I am in the same position/thought process as you, but i have read about succesful fund managers that will only buy a stock at an all time high. And only add to their position when it hits an all time high again.

Strange...but it works for them

Generally a stock is at all time highs for a reason. Thats not to say that it might not be overvalued but it normally is a good sign because there is no overhead resistance, and things are normally very good for that particular stock hence it being at all time highs. It can also give holders a reason to hold on to the stock, cutting down the supply in the market.

Just because it's at all time highs doesn't mean it can't go higher.

My

 

[legs]

With copper at nearly at a 3mth low, the only way is up. Only a market correction or bad manufacturing figures can hurt it now. I dont believe profit takers would risk it going further higher and missing the boat.

 

[uhu]

With copper at nearly at a 3mth low, the only way is up. Only a market correction or bad manufacturing figures can hurt it now. I dont believe profit takers would risk it going further higher and missing the boat.

"only way is up"

Well, why do you think a 3month low level must hold copper's prices? Do you think it by technically?
In my opinion news from USA (or strikes in S Am or change of demand in China etc) can influence copper prices much better than the rules of chartanalysis.

But, while BHP-Rio case is alive (not finished, not ended), there is the possibility for other acq.
Maybe BHP won't able to get Rio. In this way, BHP probably will collect new mines from others. BHP has more than 100 billion - so, BHP can buy Oxiana, Paladin, Zinifex, Aluminia....at least 8-10 companies. It would be more difficult, but maybe cheaper than RIO.

 

[Nyden]

Just topped up today, with an open of +2% & a current gain of only .5% (I bought at 4.03); I believe we may see a further rise there I'm comfortable with $4 as my entry - that area seemed to basically survive days of selling, so - I'm good.

I'm already sitting on a gain, no matter how small!

 

[crayfish]

You guys are forgetting that OXR is riding high on the ever upward trend in the gold price. I am very comfortable with the current sp and think thay OXR will make $xx with a little more time on its own.

At least for the moment the staff will forget about the BHP threat and can get on with business.

As bvb said the gold price has very little to do with the OXR sp. Cu and Zn are the 2 big earners. The current sp around $4 seems about right to me with near future upside with production in late '08 from Prominent Hill.

Re ZFX, I'm not sure that it is exactly what OXR should be looking for. ZFX reserves are on the decline and OXR is looking for long-term and rapid growth projects. A merger would mean rapid growth but I feel it could only be sustained for a few years pending a BIG discovery. After all ZFX only really have 2 mines - OXR have 2 operating ones as well but it will be 4 by the time Martabe comes online.

It can be viewed by the fact that ZFX are of late ramping up their own exploration efforts. Unless these come to fruition, in the short term, OXR would be better looking to take over smallish companies with multi Mt Cu deposits that are in advanced exploration or early feasibility. The Ox has stated that its also interested in Nickel and I wouldnt discount it from bulk commodities to achieve the growth it aspires to.

Anyway, there's my thoughts; Copper is up over one percent tonight so we may see some positiveness in the morning.

Substantial holder (In my book) since sub 90c days so I'm holding.

 

[crayfish]

p.s. Guaranteed, BHPB are NOT interested in OXR. Whilst they might be good hard workers I wouldn't go trusting most who work on mining camps about their opinion on M&A possibilities, and then use that info in my investment decisions.

 

[uhu]

Frreport +4%, Teck 3,1%, Southern Copper +7%, at 19 30 CET.
Will it be enough? These stocks have the same profil as OXR...and the takover roumors.
So, OXR should lift +4-5% in my opinion.

I bought at 3.80 and I had some possibilities to jump out...but, I know, it's a mistake, but I love this stock...and I think in next summer whe share price will be around xx aud (or 0 because of takever) a lot of people will do this "Why I didn't buy..."

 

[uhu]

Earthquake in Chile...well, OXR's mines ar in the Australian Shield...no chance of Earthquake.

I really hope there will be NOT victims in South America, but I also hope this news will lift Oxi share price tomorrow.

 

[legs]

up 2.75% but concerned about the rumour of a takeover, buying ZFX that is. Do we need it? Isn't KZL or something a little more under developed more tempting? I dont believe it for a second. I believe it would be Xstrata doing the ZFX thing. Thoughts? Nice increase in copper last night.

 

[legs]

Anyone care to make a judgement on what would happen to OXR shareprice if it came out that they are making a 4 x OXR shares and $4 cash for each ZFX share?

 

[Nyden]

Anyone care to make a judgement on what would happen to OXR shareprice if it came out that they are making a 4 x OXR shares and $4 cash for each ZFX share?

I think it would be a good buy (I hold both). Anyone buying ZFX at the moment isn't just buying its prospects, & current mines; but is also buying a heap of cash - I believe they have 2.6 billion in total, or is it only 1.6

So - acquiring that sort of cash would be beneficial.

To be honest; I'd be happier in OXR buying ZFX, rather than ZFX buying OXR. I believe either way they're going to end up together - just depends on who's the pants wearer!

I believe it would help OXR's share price - as look at it this way, ZFX's earnings would no longer be hindered by those large dividends! (That's providing, it's a proper integration...and not just a 90% holding); Which is the main reason I would greatly prefer OXR bought ZFX, as opposed to the alternative.

 

[bvbfan]

Anyone buying ZFX at the moment isn't just buying its prospects, & current mines; but is also buying a heap of cash - I believe they have 2.6 billion in total, or is it only 1.6

Problem there is that OXR will use the funds in ZFX to pay the cash component of about $2billion if it is $4 cash component.

I'd think it would depress the OXR price like AGC did and MNR too