OXR - Oxiana Limited

[reece55]

True it failed to reach the expected target. We are dealing with probabilities here. There are no certainties in the market. But realizing that this is not going to happen and having the ability to recognize that this market is now churning, helps a lot. Maybe you should practice this, it might actually help you one day.

If my memory serves me correct you acted in much the same way with Zinc and Zinifex earlier on in the year, cocky and arrogant initially only to be silenced after a few weeks.

I'll take up your offer for the bet, but make it $50 instead of 50c

Love it Wavepicker, love it......

"I'll see your 50 cents and raise you $49.50"

Over to you Chops.....

On OXR, I think there is absolutely buckleys chance of seeing OXR above 4.50 in this market......... period..... Not sure if $2.50 is where it will rest, but we have pretty hard conditions now....

Cheers

 

[chops_a_must]

If my memory serves me correct you acted in much the same way with Zinc and Zinifex earlier on in the year, cocky and arrogant initially only to be silenced after a few weeks.

I'll take up your offer for the bet, but make it $50 instead of 50c

I've only held ZFX for a very small amount of the year, and they were one of the first I sold this calendar year. And I have been bearish most base metals for most of the year. I don't hold OXR, so have nothing to lose/ gain. Just asking about possible variable wave counts 'tis all.

And if OXR goes below 2.50/ 2.60 from here, I think I'll need that 50 bucks.
I don't know where things are going with the precision you do, but I know a thing or two about position sizing, and not going to risk more I can afford to lose. Lol!

 

[wavepicker]

I've only held ZFX for a very small amount of the year, and they were one of the first I sold this calendar year. And I have been bearish most base metals for most of the year. I don't hold OXR, so have nothing to lose/ gain. Just asking about possible variable wave counts 'tis all.

And if OXR goes below 2.50/ 2.60 from here, I think I'll need that 50 bucks.
I don't know where things are going with the precision you do, but I know a thing or two about position sizing, and not going to risk more I can afford to lose. Lol!

I don't know where anything is going with precision or certainty. I just look for high probability circumstances to trade from mainly pattern based. If the price and time line up then great.

I actually thought he broader market might hold up into August, but knew it was high probability that a signifiant peak was due between May-August.

However a pattern formed in the DJIA, and the peak of this pattern line up perfectly with a time point that was due at the same time. There were bigger cycles that overlapped that time point and the overlap period was from may-august. That pattern that the DJIA had is the same one that OXR has formed, it is also the same one that Zinc and ZFX formed back in January although that was a lower degree pattern

That fact that all these cycles overlapped means that we are seeing strong moves down now. It is making the timing of the smaller cycle points (countertrends) very hard because its down so hard. Which means basically just sell the rallies. Most rallies are fast and furious in this sort of market, and the fact that they are fast and hard countertrends shows they are a high probability of being fully retraced. What is needed is nice basing pattern, with multiple retests of the lows.

Cheers

 

[golfmos123]

I think I'll side with the chops rather than the picker on this one. I'll happily hold the money for you both while we see who ends up on the right side of the bet!

More pain on Monday by the look of Europe and the US so far tonight. It's like a painful limbo - how low can we go????

 

[Magdoran]

Just wondering if this count is now invalid...

Did you expect this to happen? Given you were waaaayyyyy off the mark. Could it just be that this is a part of an early wave in the broader wave 5 pattern? And by my reckoning, if that is so that it couldn't lead it to go below 2.60.

So I'll bet you 50c it gets to 4.50 before it closes lower than 2.60 :

Are you serious Chops?


Have a look at the weekly chart and look at what happened. Remember this was called on APRIL 16 (2007). So wavepicker was a few points off the bullish target for a bullish trade from April and targeted $4.40 as a level to aim for, and was close to the time where the top came in.

OXR hit a high of $4.05, slightly short of the mark, but gee it was a pretty good EW call just based on the pattern. Sure, with a proper extension approach you may have picked within a few cents of the high more accurately, but this was a mid term call from 3 months earlier just based on pattern, without the more precise cycles work wavepicker has now incorporated.

Why not make your bet a little more interesting and precise. Give the exact date OXR hits $4.50, I’d like to see that!


Regards


Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

I don't know where anything is going with precision or certainty.

That's not what you told me! Hahahaha! (Just Kidding!)

Come on wave, you're being way too humble here!

I should know, I've seen wavepicker in action behind the scenes, and I can say, what he does is inspired!


Mag

P.S. I’m not biased at all, of course!

 

[chops_a_must]

Why not make your bet a little more interesting and precise. Give the exact date OXR hits $4.50, I’d like to see that!

It will happen on the day after preceeding events inevitably make it so that the best of all possible worlds brings it into existence.

 

[Nicks]

Can anyone offer some fundamental thoughts as to why OXR is getting so hammered?

Would appreciate it so I can start some thinking of my own as to whats going on, because at the moment I have no idea why this good stock is taking a beating.

Thankyou

 

[Sean K]

Can anyone offer some fundamental thoughts as to why OXR is getting so hammered?

Would appreciate it so I can start some thinking of my own as to whats going on, because at the moment I have no idea why this good stock is taking a beating.

Thankyou

Nicks, it's a sea of red out there buddy. OXR isn't a BHP or a RIO. Yet. They might have half the international cred. So, BHP off 4%, OXR off 8%. Done! Anything slightly speculative is getting whipped. Heggarty probably doesn't help too much. He's the biggest ramper on the planet and everyone knows it. It's hard to tell where the fundamentals start sometimes with OXR, and it's why I have only ever short term traded it.

Having said that, on the surface, this looks to be getting in better and better shape with the assets they are accumulating, and if the credit squeeze doesn't cause recession/depression and the pause of Chindia development, then it'll go OK down the track. So, buying opportunity? :dunno:

 

[wavepicker]

Can anyone offer some fundamental thoughts as to why OXR is getting so hammered?

Would appreciate it so I can start some thinking of my own as to whats going on, because at the moment I have no idea why this good stock is taking a beating.

Thankyou

Simple Nicks... It's called a bear market. This is the psychololigical reality of mass mood as reflected by a decline in prices. The economic reality follows this. The bears will be in control all the way to $2.50 at least IMO.

If you are in for the long haul, then you gotta ride it out, only trouble is, it might end up being a long time in between drinks!!

 

[Nicks]

Thanks Kennas. Ive held OXR for 11 months now and have always read good info on it. I bought in fairly hard when it was below $3. Thought it was finally starting to reflect true value when it hit $4.

I guess talks of the OXR and ZFX merger (that is still on the cards?) kept the SP up for a bit, but also im sure that recently OXR presented strong results.

Anyway i'll happily keep holding and yes I think it is an excellent buying opporunity at the moment. Of course I would have preferred to have sold and bought back in but we all could use that crystal ball.

The reality is that it has taken a beating in the last week or so, but once the market settles this could be one to watch for a strong rebound.

Anyway its a long term keeper for me as eventually in this supercycle it will pay off well.

 

[Sean K]

Simple Nicks... It's called a bear market.

No Bear yet WP. Correction to date. Might end up turning into a bear, but who's to say right now? Even the funnymentalists can't agree. I think today is just emotional panick. I'm still thinking LONG term the bull is in tact, and therefore LONG term this is a good play. I haven't bought any for the investment portfolio yet though. :

 

[wavepicker]

No Bear yet WP. Correction to date. Might end up turning into a bear, but who's to say right now? Even the funnymentalists can't agree. I think today is just emotional panick. I'm still thinking LONG term the bull is in tact, and therefore LONG term this is a good play. I haven't bought any for the investment portfolio yet though. :

That depends what one classes as a bear market. Amongst most professionals that number is a decline of 15% or greater on the index. Sure we are not there yet. But the 15% is just a number, and those that have participated in numerous bear markets I am sure are wiser than this and can see the signs. So then the question begs, how does one realize if we are still in a bull or if this is a bear campaign in progress?? The answer is simple, once most pundits realise the trend is down (The so called point of recognition or the middle point of a 3rd wave or C wave ), they will realise, but for most that will be too late! I know what it feels like, I have been through the pain before. The patterns say there will be lower prices to come, if not sooner then later.

It also depends on what you class as long term too. Is long term 2 years, 10 years, or 25 years??

It’s one thing to have a bear campaign lasting 1-2 years and still be long term bullish if you have the nerve to watch you stocks dwindle away in that timeframe, most don’t. It’s just human nature, people are people and always will be. Nothing has changed over the last 100 years, people are just as fearful, greedy and hopefull as their forefathers were, that’s why essentially the same patterns repeat in the markets

 

[Sean K]

That depends what one classes as a bear market. Amongst most professionals that number is a decline of 15% or greater on the index. Sure we are not there yet.

I think we're just arguing semantics now which isn't healthy. As I said, it might turn into a bear, but it's not yet. We need to be talking about bears and bulls also, and not corrections and crashes which are different things. I think right now people are just thinking market correction, or crash. Does that necessarily mean bear? Not sure. Maybe we're thinking different things.

 

[Ken]

kennas i think OXR would have hit some margin calls today.

they have a 70% lending ratio.

so no doubt there was forced selling.

just my opinion.

 

[wavepicker]

I think we're just arguing semantics now which isn't healthy. As I said, it might turn into a bear, but it's not yet. We need to be talking about bears and bulls also, and not corrections and crashes which are different things. I think right now people are just thinking market correction, or crash. Does that necessarily mean bear? Not sure. Maybe we're thinking different things.

So out of curiosity what signs you are looking for to convince you that this is a bear market kennas?

BTW in my eyes:-

Large Correction = bear

Crash = bear

 

[Sean K]

So out of curiosity what signs you are looking for to convince you that this is a bear market kennas?

BTW in my eyes:-

Large Correction = bear

Crash = bear

Well, I have to defer to Wiki:

Bear market:

Prices fluctuate constantly on the open market; a bear market is not a simple decline, but a substantial drop in the prices of a range of issues over a defined period of time. By one common definition, a bear market is marked by a price decline of 20% or more in a key stock market index from a recent peak over a 12-month period. However, no consensual definition of a bear market exists to clearly differentiate a primary market trend from a secondary market trend.

So, 20% + over a year or so. If it drops 20% and recovers in a few weeks or months, then it's not a bear, but a crash and recovery.

Perhaps there's a subtle difference in there somewhere. Something about who's driving the fall...to change it from 'correction/crash' to 'bear'. :dunno:

 

[wavepicker]

Well, I have to defer to Wiki:



So, 20% + over a year or so. If it drops 20% and recovers in a few weeks or months, then it's not a bear, but a crash and recovery.

Perhaps there's a subtle difference in there somewhere. Something about who's driving the fall...to change it from 'correction/crash' to 'bear'. :dunno:

Fair enough kennas, as far as I am concerned a decline in prices that is enough to lead an individual to first be angry, hurt, then depressed is enough for me. In the end, no one likes to lose money and that's what it boils down to.

Incidentally though RN Elliott calssified sideways markets as bearish so I suppose it's one of those grey areas. Nevertheless the market is taking a hammering!!

 

[uhu]

Nicks, Kennas and others...

(I know my english is not correct, I am sorry)

What a suprise...a very bad suprise...When I went to bed at the evening, I thought OXR and ZFX would follow Dow Jones, so I waited a 2-3% dropping.
BUT! It's 10%!!!! And BHP, Rio "only" 3-4%....

Well, yes, these are good companies. Everyone say this. And everyone said these are bargain when OXR was at 3.50 AUD and ZFX was at 18 AUD....and I'm sure these analysts will say the same in these pricelevels. But, if credit situation won't change I'm afraid more dropping will be in the near furure. It's the same it's called as a bear market or big correction....because the result is loosing a lot of money.

Now I'm thinking. I believe in these stocks. But probably it would better to sell and later buyback them? Or this was the last big drop? Nobody can know this.

Well, I will be mor sure if I have more information about these stocks....but Google, The Australian, Mineweb doesn't give too much....have you got more information resources?

 

[Mofra]

kennas i think OXR would have hit some margin calls today.

they have a 70% lending ratio.

so no doubt there was forced selling.

just my opinion.

Hi Ken,

Much of the drive seems to have been during the SFE downtime, about 70minutes of fundies switching from short futures to short selling equities (they had little alternative). Once the SFE sytems were back up & running calm returned - OXR finishing black, XJO climing 220+ points.

Wouldnt think a wider market selloff is going to immediately impact the underlying fundametals in the short term - only change bullish sentiment.