OXR - Oxiana Limited

[Aargh!]

Well, Zinifex went down 1 aud because it's after exdiv date yesterday, but it went down an other 1 aud today - so the reason is not exdiv date.
Well, I have only two aussie stocks...but what mining stocks you have?

The stocks that pulled me up today were OXR, KZL, MLX, POS, GGY, ARE. I don't hold Zinifex so I don't track it religiously.

 

[Caliente]

Not really supposed to upload broker reports (they have a clause I'm sure somewhere!) but whatever =)

Coverage is Neutral because of Capex at Prominent Hill, but everybody knows about that.

Bear in mind the ML style is really conservative, they hardly ever give buy recommendations and when they do its only a few cents above the current market cap with a 12 month objective which I find entertaining.

Enjoy
-Cali

PS - wasn't that a pleasant rise today!

 

[Kruegs]

Because the price is rising, people are assuming something must be in the works, therefore they buy - & in turn this raises the price more so; and the momentum just keeps going until people start realising that maybe nothing is actually going on!

Well, at least that's what I'm hoping
I was going to double my holding in OXR this morning during the drop; went to the post office first; came home to a rise!​

For the same logic I bought some PUT options on OXR first up this morning. Looking a bit dismal today, but will hold on until any news comes clear.

Cheers
Kruegs

 

[robandcoll]

PH expectations are part of the reason I suspect. I have brought OXR over over many years but PH is the jewell in the crown.The market is now realising that PH could deliver the goods big time despite its cost blow out, which was released this week. The market did not react. That is my interpretation anyway. Will hold and long the OX

 

[overule]

Not really supposed to upload broker reports (they have a clause I'm sure somewhere!) but whatever =)

Coverage is Neutral because of Capex at Prominent Hill, but everybody knows about that.

Bear in mind the ML style is really conservative, they hardly ever give buy recommendations and when they do its only a few cents above the current market cap with a 12 month objective which I find entertaining.

Enjoy
-Cali

PS - wasn't that a pleasant rise today!

May i know where do you get this type of report ? Do you pay for this ? If so where ?
It's informative.

Thanks

 

[Caliente]

yes, unfortunately you do need to pay or at least hold an account with a provider to get broker analysis.

How to get an account with ML in australia - no idea. You should enquire - but it pays for itself in the long run.

Cheers
-Cali

 

[uhu]

Hi Cali,

You are very kindly. Well, I (we) hope this analysys is much better than the others about subprime credits...ML's CEO was just kicked off.

Well, I ve got some favourite stocks in Europe what I would buy (but no cash, so that's why I am thinking about hold or sell Oxiana), but, I think I give more time to this aussie company. I hope it won't be a bad decesion.

If you want, I can also upload my broker calls. Unfortunatly, language is hungarian...

see you

owl

 

[Nyden]

Well, unless we do get some news soon - it could definately fall.

How can a stock of this price rise in 12% in 2 days based on no news?
I always prefer a stock to be undervalued, as opposed to over, that way I can consistently top up

I think OXR is going to miss out on the little rally today; surely it can't add another few % onto that!

 

[bigdog]

Todays Age

http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...n/2007/10/31/1193618973442.html?page=fullpage

Oxiana shares rise on takeover speculation

Barry Fitzgerald
November 1, 2007
Advertisement

AS OXIANA'S share price rose against the trend, a predictable wave of takeover talk surrounding the $6.5 billion base and precious metals producer erupted once more.

Oxiana closed 17 ¢ higher at $4.20, a gain of 4.2 per cent, on a day when the rest of the sector was off heavily because of overnight weakness in metal prices. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto were both down 1.7 per cent.

Oxiana's rise was also against a backdrop of generally negative broker reports in response to its Tuesday announcement that the development cost of its Prominent Hill copper/gold mine in South Australia had increased by 27 per cent to $1.08 billion.

The stock's rise against the trend was attributed to speculation that cashed-up zinc producer Zinifex had Oxiana in its sights, if not by an agreed merger then by an aggressive takeover.

The $8.1 billion Zinifex is about to bank net proceeds of $1.5 billion from the sale of its smelting assets through the float of the European-based Nyrstar.

Zinifex has said that no decision on the funds would be made until a February board meeting and that it could sit on the cash until August as it sorts through merger and acquisition opportunities. If it cannot find the right deal, the cash will be returned to shareholders.

While the Zinifex bid rumour refuses to die, Oxiana's share-price pop also reflects increased overseas buying of the stock in the wake of Xstrata's $3.1 billion agreed takeover bid for nickel producer Jubilee. The premium in that offer has prompted a broader rethink of the value of mining assets should, as Xstrata has bet, above-average metal prices continue in the long run. It has also prompted questions about which mid-tier group will be knocked off next.

Yesterday's gain for Oxiana was despite Deutsche downgrading the stock to a "hold" because of the development-cost increase at Prominent Hill. It has a 12-month price target for the stock of $3.85. UBS remained "neutral", with a $4.20 a share target, while JPMorgan maintained an underweight recommendation, with a June 2008 price target of $2.70 a share.

The reporter owns Oxiana shares.

http://tinyurl.com/23ehar

 

[Nick Radge]

How can a stock of this price rise in 12% in 2 days based on no news?

Nyden,
Its important to understand that the market discounts future events. Future expectations are what drive prices and market adjustments come from unexpected events. This is why its very important to understand volume because its within volume that we can read greed and fear.

Below is my take on OXR. Disclosure: I am long OXR. The chart clearly show prices testing the all time highs set earlier this year. Notice what prices do on the move from $4.00 back to the recent lows at $3.60 and also notice what happens with the volume. The volume declines. This means that there is no serious selling taking place which is a positive sign. But more importantly is the pattern. This little 'flag' pattern as its known became known to me back in 1995. I noticed that these always tended to appear right at old highs - exactly as this one has done. Its caused from 'weaker' hands taking profits, which is why the volume is low. Its Mum's and Dad's selling to take their profits. They see the old highs and naturally assume that prices stopped there before and it will happen again. They take their profits causing the little dip. However, those in the know, and believe me there are those in the know, take that opportunity of the dip to buy in some more. Notice last week that prices could keep moving lower but volume started building? This is the buyers steeping in to meet the minor sellers. They stopped the downdraft. They were buying the dip and supporting price.

Monday was a very important day. It shows that the buyers awaiting the dip could not wait any longer. They had to start marking prices up for fear of missing the move. This mark up is called 'jump across the creek'. Its a high volume, wide bar 'jumping' across resistance.

Does this mean there is an announcement coming? Who knows. It may have been because of the FOMC meeting. They new the US would cut rates. They knew this would place downward pressure on the US$ and therefore upward pressure on commodities. What we now have is prices sitting above significant support which is probably going to act as a cushion for further advances.

This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

 

[Nick Radge]

I should add that I entered on the 22nd at $3.72. I got stopped out at breakeven on the 25th. I entered again on the 29th at $3.89.

 

[Caliente]

Because the price is rising, people are assuming something must be in the works, therefore they buy - & in turn this raises the price more so; and the momentum just keeps going until people start realising that maybe nothing is actually going on!

Well, at least that's what I'm hoping
I was going to double my holding in OXR this morning during the drop; went to the post office first; came home to a rise!​

For the same logic I bought some PUT options on OXR first up this morning. Looking a bit dismal today, but will hold on until any news comes clear.

Cheers
Kruegs

i'm gathering that these are pretty much worthless at this stage ^_-

I'd hold on though - OXR has been the subject of so many takeover rumours its old hat. So if the "talks" falls through you might get some cash back.

Cali
- The Oxiana Permabull.

 

[Nyden]

I keep wanting to increase my holding on OXR each day, but fear each day that it's hit the ceiling. Today once again - up 6%! I know once I buy more, it'll suddenly drop 15%

OXR's actually been my best holding, shame it's my smallest - with a gain of over 45% in less than a year....not bad.

Is there actually a reason for this price rise? Aside from takeover speculation? (I guess rising metal prices have helped though ) Maybe people are just starting to appreciate it more; I just keep fearing it's the 'hot' money sitting in on this, and they'll all flock away soon enough.

 

[legs]

I keep wanting to increase my holding on OXR each day, but fear each day that it's hit the ceiling. Today once again - up 6%! I know once I buy more, it'll suddenly drop 15%

OXR's actually been my best holding, shame it's my smallest - with a gain of over 45% in less than a year....not bad.

Is there actually a reason for this price rise? Aside from takeover speculation? (I guess rising metal prices have helped though ) Maybe people are just starting to appreciate it more; I just keep fearing it's the 'hot' money sitting in on this, and they'll all flock away soon enough.

Nyden,
My plan at the moment is below $4, buy more, Above $4 smile!! I believe it will be sooner rather than later a takeover offer is made and I have heard the workers at PromHill have given up to the fact BHP will swallow them up!

 

[Nyden]

Nyden,
My plan at the moment is below $4, buy more, Above $4 smile!! I believe it will be sooner rather than later a takeover offer is made and I have heard the workers at PromHill have given up to the fact BHP will swallow them up!

It's hard to smile with such a small holding though
There's just something about OXR; I've never been able to take a punt on it.

I'm impatient I guess, I want to quadrupole my holding, and I want to now! Dammit

Where's a crystal ball when you need it!

& hey! I'm a Zinifex holder, I'm holding out for a merger there, so don't shatter my dreams

 

[Rafa]

till only a couple of months ago, BHP and OXR share prices tracked each others reasonably well i.e. divide BHP's price by 10, gave you OXR's...

but since the big subprime crash of couple of months back, BHP has outperformed everything including OXR. Looks like the two are slowing getting back together... maybe in more ways that one, eh legs??

The word from people who work at OXR is all talk is about when they going to get taken over... BUT i also think OXR may be the one doing some taking over of their own... Owen Hegarty ain't no slouch when it comes to wheeling and dealing.

all in all, as a very long term holder, i ain't too fussed about OXR's future for a while yet...

 

[legs]

till only a couple of months ago, BHP and OXR share prices tracked each others reasonably well i.e. divide BHP's price by 10, gave you OXR's...

but since the big subprime crash of couple of months back, BHP has outperformed everything including OXR. Looks like the two are slowing getting back together... maybe in more ways that one, eh legs??

The word from people who work at OXR is all talk is about when they going to get taken over... BUT i also think OXR may be the one doing some taking over of their own... Owen Hegarty ain't no slouch when it comes to wheeling and dealing.

all in all, as a very long term holder, i ain't too fussed about OXR's future for a while yet...

I too am a long term holder, I originally bought the majoirty of my parcel @ $0.90 and have added to it as my paper profits took of with it. O.H. plans to increase it 10x so I am happy to hold it as long as it takes. I have faith in him, but welcome a takeover offer too...lol

 

[uhu]

About impact of BHP-Rio M&A.

Well this can be a good news for Oxiana, think the impact of Xstrata's bid...

But...if BHP-Rio deal will work, the biggest player will be out from the following M&A games.

So, this megabid good or bad for Oxiana?



Why did I chose OXR and ZFX instead of Rio and BHP...

 

[Sean K]

So, this megabid good or bad for Oxiana?

Most probably very good for OXR. All the mid tiers will be given a boost I'd say. If BHP doesn't get RIO, then they'll be picking some other things up...

 

[Caliente]

uhu... put it this way.

I'd say it'd take some one with watermelon balls to short Oxiana tommorow.

-Cali