OXR - Oxiana Limited

[coyotte]

Re: OXR --- flags ?

Thanks Dutchie

25th was a manipulated move

Cheers

 

[Sean K]

Perhaps the pennant is still there for OXR on a larger chart...

Close up doesn't seem to support it too well at the moment, but these things are rarely perfectly formed imo.

Found a pretty good base at $2.50-60, but these low points probably correspond to the lows of gold and copper too.....wouldn't be surprised if the support levels correspond.

 

[swingstar]

Here's my preferred count for OXR. Note I haven't taken into account metal prices etc.

Due to the throwover and volume spike at wave e, I believe the triangle has finished and we should see a lot more further upside.

 

[Nick Radge]

 

[swingstar]

Hi Nick

Great to see another count / analysis. The remainder of this week will be very interesting.

Cheers

 

[coyotte]

Congratulations Nick

Great to see simple Trend Line Channel Trading @ it,s best
by the way this is similar to Wormald's methodogy
Swingstar imho U missed-placed the upper line at point ( b ), as demostrated in nick's chart -- shouldn't the current resistance be around 3.10 ?
But heck whats it's matter OXR is still in no man's land


Cheers

 

[swingstar]

Swingstar imho U missed-placed the upper line at point ( b ), as demostrated in nick's chart -- shouldn't the current resistance be around 3.10 ?

Only off by a few cents. I try not to be too pedantic.

But heck whats it's matter OXR is still in no man's land

Not if you take the EW approach. I'm actually surprised by Nick's analysis, as it counts waves on the way up, yet then discards it drawing out a channel.

I'm still learning and testing EW application tho, so I only post for educational purposes and in the hope other EW analysts will post alternative (or even supportive) counts.

If it breaks the channel or pennant tomorrow (whichever way you want to look at it), a lot of traders will probably jump on the long side driving it up at least past $3.20 IMO.

 

[michael_selway]

Here's my preferred count for OXR. Note I haven't taken into account metal prices etc.

Due to the throwover and volume spike at wave e, I believe the triangle has finished and we should see a lot more further upside.

hey looking at the chart it seems bearish, like "volatile bearish" if you know what i mean

thx

MS

 

[swingstar]

hey looking at the chart it seems bearish, like "volatile bearish" if you know what i mean

If it is the beginning of wave V, then we should see some bullish action, at least past highs in May (how long till then I don't know ).

 

[clowboy]

hey all,

Been watching OXR pretty closing last few weeks and am thinking that if it trades above $3-3.15 that it is positive and may top up a bit.

Nick, can you explain your chart a little for me as Im not yet advanced enuff to work it out on my loansome. Is the ? meant to represent a case of it will either bounce off this line and fall again or plough through it and the skies the limit?


Cheers

 

[coyotte]

Not if you take the EW approach. I'm actually surprised by Nick's analysis, as it counts waves on the way up, yet then discards it drawing out a channel.

This is execatly the the point I was trying to get over in the thread Barney started -- that is that in the old Kitco Forum when ever Spot Gold Bottoms/Tops there would be around half a dozen EW practioners posting charts --- only trouble was they would all be different --- one would presume Elliott knew what he was on about but that theory would appear to have been corrupted by outhers over time .

But OXR seems to have gone wacko since it spiked up !

As I see it -- probably wrong
We had a Dominate Bull Candle --- that failed .
A Bear Flag, that changed to Bull Flag ,that changed to a Eq-Triangle ,
Breaking the Eq-Tri UP indicating Long
Trend Lines Indicating Short

A untradable stock at the moment ?

Cheers

 

[swingstar]

This is execatly the the point I was trying to get over in the thread Barney started -- that is that in the old Kitco Forum when ever Spot Gold Bottoms/Tops there would be around half a dozen EW practioners posting charts --- only trouble was they would all be different --- one would presume Elliott knew what he was on about but that theory would appear to have been corrupted by authers over time .

There are preferred counts and then there are alternative counts. EW is supposed to be objective though, as stated in the Elliott Wave Principle. I haven't had enough experience with it tho and how it should be applied to equities. I have Robert Miner's book on order... which Nick has recommended.

What I like about EW is having rules to follow. If x happens then do this. Like a cross between a discretionary and mechanical system, lol.

Edit: Or rather, if x happens, then these are the probabilities, and you can formulate a plan to trade.

 

[Nick Radge]

I left my counts off this recent volatility phase. But here are some hints to EW counts: The major high was a wave-5. Even if you counted it as a wave-3, both are followed by a corrective move of some description. A corrective move will always be choppy and difficult to decipher, exactly what we're seeing here in OXR. There is no doubt OXR is some kind of consolidation/correction, but until it shows signs of another impulse (higher or lower) then its best to look elsewhere or move out to a longer time frame.

My chart shows area's of support and resistance. We're approaching the upper resistance, but the close is off the high and the volume has picked up a little. Suggests sellers to me and more so because of the channel and recent pivot high being aligned.

 

[Sean K]

It's been great to see the different interpretations of this and the ew counts. Thanks guys, most helpful. My work is much more basic than you characters though, and I still see this last pennant and slightly bullish move up from it as a potential break in the trend. Needs a couple of days to confirm it and as I've said before, heading through $3.15 would do it. I'm no chartist though. Just a person looking for a boat captain.

 

[swingstar]

There's quite a large wall of sellers in the depth, so don't think we'll see much movement up today. Will probably take a big day on Wall Street or metals to see more buyers in.

 

[swingstar]

I left my counts off this recent volatility phase. But here are some hints to EW counts: The major high was a wave-5. Even if you counted it as a wave-3, both are followed by a corrective move of some description. A corrective move will always be choppy and difficult to decipher, exactly what we're seeing here in OXR. There is no doubt OXR is some kind of consolidation/correction, but until it shows signs of another impulse (higher or lower) then its best to look elsewhere or move out to a longer time frame.

My chart shows area's of support and resistance. We're approaching the upper resistance, but the close is off the high and the volume has picked up a little. Suggests sellers to me and more so because of the channel and recent pivot high being aligned.

Nick, thanks for your analysis. See the attachment for where I got my possible count from. The clear three-wave decline is visible to me to make the a wave, and throwovers are quite common at the end of triangles. The peaks then make quite a well-formed triangle.

I haven't gone as far back as to determine if the previous high was the end of wave 5 or 3 (well definitely a wave 5, but on what scale I'm not sure)--my EW analysis isn't that advanced (hoping to get that from Miner's book)--but I think the triangle is a possibility.

 

[rederob]

If it is the beginning of wave V, then we should see some bullish action, at least past highs in May (how long till then I don't know ).

swingstar
I thing that post was pivotal.
I don't use the tech stuff much, but have a close eye on the underlying metal prices of OXR.
My reading of their production numbers suggests that Golden Grove (principally zinc) will outperform Sepon copper/gold this year.
So while the jury is out on copper/gold direction, the verdict on silver, lead and zinc has been delivered.
It's LME week this week, so commodities swing back to full tradingvolumes next week. However, in what can be a disastrous week (revisit what happened this time last year) the base metals have rallied strongly instead.
This all suggests to me that the run to Xmas will be a cracker for those (like me) overweight in commodity based equities.

 

[YELNATS]

OXR has just gone to $3.26 in the last half hour or so. Any particular reason why? Regards YN.

 

[rederob]

OXR has just gone to $3.26 in the last half hour or so. Any particular reason why? Regards YN.

Yeah.
They all read this thread, and threw money at the bull.
:bier:

 

[swingstar]

OXR has just gone to $3.26 in the last half hour or so. Any particular reason why? Regards YN.

Here's my reasoning:

If it breaks the channel or pennant tomorrow (whichever way you want to look at it), a lot of traders will probably jump on the long side driving it up at least past $3.20 IMO.

All of the buying was mostly during lunchtime, so I'm not getting too excited. Will be interesting to see how it plays out now that the pennant/channel has been breached.