OXR - Oxiana Limited

[YELNATS]

Up to $3.33 now, bounding ahead!

 

[Halba]

any fundamental change in ox's outlook? starting to look fully priced relative to say ZFX or KZL

didn't think that copper or gold are doing that well

prominent hill is a while off as well

 

[swingstar]

Quite an interesting advance on a market down day--second biggest mover on the day to PMN. I didn't think it would finish strongly in the afternoon. Highest volume traded since June 9.

 

[bvbfan]

zinc prices at or close to may highs depenging on source, zinc prices very bullish to me

 

[pacer]

They don't own enough zinc for my liking....went long on KZL and ZFX yesterday....hope the graph looks like OXR over the next week or two........

Went short on STO santos yesterday too......how much is mud worth these days? lol...what a disaster.....

 

[rederob]

They don't own enough zinc for my liking....went long on KZL and ZFX yesterday.........

pacer
Perhaps you should compare OXR with KZL and surprise yourself!

 

[BSD]

Sorry if it is seen to be rude - but does anybody really think even 5% of the 40 million shares were traded today because of a pennant/channel/double chock-top pattern with a bullish mood based on the weak phase of the moon cycle?

OXR was punted today based on takeover rumours - nobody on the desks buying 500,000 share lines was looking at a chart pattern

The strong copper and zinc price has been driving the price for the last week

Would love to have it explained to me how the OXR wave count has affected or provided any more information than the real drivers of OXR:

1. The Cu and Zn price
2. The Cu and Zn inventory and demand
3. The appetite for OXR shares from funds/predators
4. The rumour mill

?

In my view, the information available on the phone (grapevine), net and newswire is a billion times more valuable than that drawn from a group of chartists arguing about a wave count.

'Coincidence gathering' is easy when you cant even get a group of chartists to agree on what the chart is meant to be saying.

Of course someone is eventually right

 

[swingstar]

The real drivers hey? I'm sure if I cared, I could pick holes in anyone's analysis (even my own), providing some 'good' or 'bad' news or some type of pattern to 'explain' the price.

I'm sure OXR has dived on days where all of those 'facts' were present--or maybe not, and you're a billionaire?

Patterns (including waves) may be just that, or maybe there is something else at work, some underlying pattern to crowd behaviour and psychology. But who knows, hey?

 

[BSD]

OXR responds well to count back --- Trend Lines are indicating a possible bounce at 2.43 , but not a arrest of the over all decline ---- you usually need a period of high volume to flush out the last of rhe sellers , this has not yet occured and the avg volume is only helping the eventual support at present a decaying 2.19 come about in a controlled manner.

Thats how I read the weekly/daily charts

I am still SHORT OXR

If OXR breaks below 2.70 the next level of support (apart from a breach of the Bollinger Bands) is a decaying 1.90 --- as I see it

Not sure how you get 2.43 - can you put a chart up to show that? The only real trend I see atm is a decending triangle with a base at $2.50. If it breaks this, then $2.00 is next support. I reckon if gold breaks $560 then this is a possibility.

As I see it at the moment a CLOSE below 2.80 would be a SHORT signal , whilst a CLOSE above 3.00 would be a LONG signal

I'm using Elliot waves and think that we are in a C wave. The 25th of Sept. action has baffled me a bit (basically I've ignored it in the scheme of things) but using EW and the price of gold (even though OXR is not a pure gold play) I estimate a fall to about $2.3 (possibly lower).

Break down confirmed !

There is no doubt OXR is some kind of consolidation/correction, but until it shows signs of another impulse (higher or lower) then its best to look elsewhere or move out to a longer time frame.

My chart shows area's of support and resistance. We're approaching the upper resistance, but the close is off the high and the volume has picked up a little. Suggests sellers to me and more so because of the channel and recent pivot high being aligned.

I dont pretend to offer an accurate daily prediction and I am sorry if you see the post as 2020 hindsight

But looking at the absolute rubbish on this thread from the last fortnight, I feel studying commodities markets and understanding the supply demand function for copper and zinc has given me more profits and less ulcers than wave counts could ever offer.

Having an investment horizon longer than 5 minutes helps a lot too.

I have a firm grasp on the effect random events have on my profits.

I would say,however, that factors like Asian demographics and the supply/demand function for Cu and Zn are far less random than the daily fluctuations of a charted price of a security

In any case - corporate activity (or rumour thereof) is a major swing factor and in the short term, trumps fundamentals and technicals everytime.

An ear close to the ground beats a chart and an analyst anyday of the week!

 

[wayneL]

Sorry if it is seen to be rude - but does anybody really think even 5% of the 40 million shares were traded today because of a pennant/channel/double chock-top pattern with a bullish mood based on the weak phase of the moon cycle?

OXR was punted today based on takeover rumours - nobody on the desks buying 500,000 share lines was looking at a chart pattern

The strong copper and zinc price has been driving the price for the last week

Would love to have it explained to me how the OXR wave count has affected or provided any more information than the real drivers of OXR:

1. The Cu and Zn price
2. The Cu and Zn inventory and demand
3. The appetite for OXR shares from funds/predators
4. The rumour mill

?

In my view, the information available on the phone (grapevine), net and newswire is a billion times more valuable than that drawn from a group of chartists arguing about a wave count.

'Coincidence gathering' is easy when you cant even get a group of chartists to agree on what the chart is meant to be saying.

Of course someone is eventually right

BSD

Please, don't try to tell us that all fundies agree

LMAO

 

[swingstar]

Well, I don't try to explain what happened. I only care what has been consistent in history--yes EW has believe it or not--and what the probabilities are and how I can trade it.

But I think it's futile to explain most occurences in price. Think about it--trying to gauge a single reason or few as to why every single person, or the majority, bought or sold in a certain time frame.

Maybe your points were a major factor today. Maybe the breakout of the pennant/channel also was. Whatever the case, it doesn't matter much to me.

 

[wayneL]

Well, I don't try to explain what happened. I only care what has been consistent in history--yes EW has believe it or not--and what the probabilities are and how I can trade it.

But I think it's futile to explain most occurences in price. Think about it--trying to gauge a single reason or few as to why every single person, or the majority, bought or sold in a certain time frame.

Maybe your points were a major factor today. Maybe the breakout of the pennant/channel also was. Whatever the case, it doesn't matter much to me.

Exactly

 

[BSD]

BSD

Please, don't try to tell us that all fundies agree

LMAO

Nothing to do with widespread agreement of fundamental analysts. We wouldnt have a market if we all agreed.

My point is that today the majority of stock was traded on rumour. The arguable wave count had 0% to do with the movement and in my unpopular view, has a similar proportion of predictability for future movements.

Causality and coincidence are difficult to seperate sometimes. I just happen to believe that in a massive majority of markets any percieved success of wave counts is due to coincidence.


Back on topic:

If Cu stays above $3.10 and Zn above $1.40 - OXR is cum large upgrades

Sepon reserve downgrades are the swing factor

 

[BSD]

But I think it's futile to explain most occurences in price. Think about it--trying to gauge a single reason or few as to why every single person, or the majority, bought or sold in a certain time frame.

Maybe your points were a major factor today. Maybe the breakout of the pennant/channel also was. Whatever the case, it doesn't matter much to me.

Sorry - I just cannot understand how you can trade based on the shape created on a chart by a market movement without caring what made the market make that shape.

Not a criticism - just an observation

 

[wayneL]

Nothing to do with widespread agreement of fundamental analysts. We wouldnt have a market if we all agreed.

My point is that today the majority of stock was traded on rumour. The arguable wave count had 0% to do with the movement and in my unpopular view, has a similar proportion of predictability for future movements.

Causality and coincidence are difficult to seperate sometimes. I just happen to believe that in a massive majority of markets any percieved success of wave counts is due to coincidence.

But you made much of disagreement between techies in order to disparage them as a group.... in fact you seem to have an issue with t/a.

I think if you speak to any techie that been around any longer than 5 minutes, they will agree with your causality/coincidence hypothosis. I certainly do. Also agree with the ear to ground comments.

But most people misunderstand the purpose of t/a (including many t/analysts), as do you.... and the proverbial ear to the ground is a most usful adjunct to t/a (and f/a for that matter)

However, that in no way detracts from t/a as a viable method of trading OXR... depending on the purpose of the individual.

Cheers

 

[RichKid]

Sorry - I just cannot understand how you can trade based on the shape created on a chart by a market movement without caring what made the market make that shape.

Not a criticism - just an observation

This is just getting back to the old TA vs Fundamentals debate which has been done to death in other threads so let's get back on topic and just accept that it's a case of different strokes for different strokes (as long as the basis of one's view is not outlandish or unreasonable- EW and other forms of TA are known to be profitable).

Thanks for not blowing up over this guys.

 

[swingstar]

Sorry - I just cannot understand how you can trade based on the shape created on a chart by a market movement without caring what made the market make that shape.

Not a criticism - just an observation

Like I said, I could find any news or pattern or whatever to fit the fact. Your opinion is just that, an opinion. Maybe half the shares today were bought on rumour, or on metals going up, and maybe half was self-fulfilling TA (breakouts are quite common entry signals). Or maybe something completely different. I don't know, and you don't either.

On my analysis, I wasn't expecting such a large spike. Given my analysis, the probability of May's highs being reached is likely. If something adverse happens before then, I'll adjust my count. Regardless of any rumours or whatever, the probability was there days before. Anyway May's high hasn't been reached yet, so my count hasn't forecast anything, and I don't claim to have forecast anything.

 

[Out Too Soon]

Sorry if it is seen to be rude - but does anybody really think even 5% of the 40 million shares were traded today because of a pennant/channel/double chock-top pattern with a bullish mood based on the weak phase of the moon cycle?

I'm in your camp BSD but you forgot the round bottom under the head & shoulders & we wont mention the candles.

But seriously Oxiana has been good to me I've just decided to take profits on the 2nd half of my holding but will happily jump on again when Sagitarius is in Mars.

PS: fundamentals dont work either because a lot of ppl dont use them to trade which is a double edged sword for us. i.e the market isnt run on common sense. I'm not complaining, it makes life interesting.

 

[MalteseBull]

Mr Hegarty was returning from the London Metal Exchange's annual seminar and will be at his desk today. The latest rumours covered a range of possibilities. If it was not Canada's Teck Cominco at $3.60 a share, then it might be US copper giant Phelps Dodge, with the latter also said to be eyeing Pan Australian, which shot 3 ¢, or 11 per cent, higher to 30 ¢.

OXR gonna sky rocket today

 

[swingstar]

Looking forward to the reasons today... looks like everyone forgot about the rumours, and suddenly don't care about metal prices, LOL.