OXR - Oxiana Limited

[legs]

Obviously the recent hike in the Ox's price has been all to do with the Exploration success at the Golden Grove operation. It looks much better than Seppon and lots of upside in materials. Heres the ASX release link look for yourself: http://www.corporatefile.com.au/doc...s%20Golden%20Grove%20Operation%2013.10.06.pdf

Looks like the market got a sniff of this before the release?? hmmmmm maybe you chartists just got lucky?

 

[swingstar]

Obviously the recent hike in the Ox's price has been all to do with traders jumping on a very common entry signal--a breakout of a pennant. Heres the chart look for yourself: http://www.futile.com/chart.gif

Looks like traders saw it happening and jumped on?? hmmmmm maybe you fundies just got lucky?

Or the EW version:

Obviously the recent hike in the Ox's price has been all to do with transactions entering the fabric of the market, and by communicating transactional data to investors, joined the chain of causes of others' behaviour. Heres the chart look for yourself: http://www.futile.com/chart.gif

Looks like the market saw it happening and followed the herd?? hmmmmm maybe you fundies just got lucky?



Anyway, no fundies have answered my question. Why didn't the buying continue between the hours of 10-4 on Friday--does everyone have a short memory?

 

[BSD]

Plenty of hot money that went in on Thursday afternoon came out when OXR management gave denials on takeover approaches

40m traded on Thursday
26m traded on Friday

Holding up very nicely and remains cheap regardless of a bidder coming

 

[swingstar]

Gee you fundies, always disagreeing. legs up there says it was due to exploration success. Which one is it??

Ok, enough of the reasons or at least disparaging others' analysis techniques. Hopefully, people with an open mind will now see that there are many possible reasons for the recent spike, and that no one's analysis is necessarily more credible.

Edit: BTW, I see an announcement here regarding takeover speculation from 26/9. What was any different on Thurs? Also, the response from the exec came out Friday, probably hours after the market had sold OXR off already. In fact it opened low and fell in the opening, and stayed low all day.

 

[rederob]

Hopefully, people with an open mind will now see that there are many possible reasons for the recent spike, and that no one's analysis is necessarily more credible.

It's really a bit silly!
Spikes occur as a result of unforeseen events, as a rule.
Or, or known events, where timing (and knowledge) is wholly in the hands of the company itself.
We know that OXR has aggressive drilling taking place at a number of different, highly prospective locations. They probably have a much better chance finding something pretty good (usually because they are close to an area of known quantity/quality) than the explorer with a small budget and huge unexplored tenements.
However, for OXR to move sharply in price will take a gigantic find as with over a billion shares on issue, getting traction will not be so easy.
On the other hand, with so many takeovers now in train, a good rumour here and there can do wonders.
My only concern about the techies when it comes to commodities is that the underlying factors of a company are ignored in favour of sheer price action/volume.
Frankly if OXR goes up or down in the next week or month it is of no concern to me. I know OXR continues to have excellent unhedged sales of metals that are high-priced by every historical standard. In the case of lead from Golden Grove, it is selling at all time highs, while zinc is just a few cents shy of its all time high.
I am not sure what swingstar wants from fundamental analysts: We don't (or should not) use the info to trade on a short term basis. A possible exception right now is in relation to zinc or nickel-based equities that appear to be exposed to constantly increasing metal prices, with an underlying expectation that any retrace represents a good buying opportunity.

 

[BSD]

We don't (or should not) use the info to trade on a short term basis.

Exactly the reason we were buyers at $2.50 and not sellers

 

[swingstar]

I am not sure what swingstar wants from fundamental analysts:

I have no beef with FA. Read back a few pages; I was simply providing a counter argument from a TA point of view, which was provoked.

Let's just let it rest, shall we?

 

[nizar]

swingstar

i reckon the move in OXR price was to do with the GG announcement and takeover speculation. if there was no announcements or fundamental news during this time, then id agree its because of Elliots waves hands down.

still, u did call it and turns out it was a great call, hope u made big $$$

 

[swingstar]

swingstar

i reckon the move in OXR price was to do with the GG announcement and takeover speculation. if there was no announcements or fundamental news during this time, then id agree its because of Elliots waves hands down.

still, u did call it and turns out it was a great call, hope u made big $$$

Hi nizar

I haven't called anything yet. I labelled a possible EW count which was refuted by a much more experienced practitioner. Nevertheless, the target of my count is past May's high--and no, I haven't traded it (I don't use EW live yet).

If my count is correct, what happened on Thursday has little meaning in the larger picture--the uptrend will probably continue regardless of any events or news that (arguably) support it.

Cheers

 

[legs]

Simple really,
I bought OXR at 0.80 cents on the back of its Sepon mine exploration and drilling results. Owen Hegarty had great balls to play the government of Laos the way he did and managed it greatly and continues to do so. No chart analysis back then could have possibly foreseen the results, but yes the market reaction to the results makes these charts, so we work hand in hand. WE techies read the results and purchase as we see value. You then buy on our move, so one could say you are a step behind, suits me! I haven't sold a single share since my original purchase and plan to hold them for a while yet as I believe they are still very cheap. :grinsking

 

[rederob]

WE techies read the results and purchase as we see value. You then buy on our move, so one could say you are a step behind, suits me! I haven't sold a single share since my original purchase and plan to hold them for a while yet as I believe they are still very cheap. :grinsking

Techies would generally have sold between May 16 and May 21 when 2 gaps were filled on the way down, sharply down.
My last purchase of OXR was on 22 May, for the record, but I began buying when OXR was under 80cents. It now accounts for over 20% of my total share holdings.
In fact many techies would have bailed well beforehand on stop losses.
Thereafter, any techie silly enough to hold would have needed large balls after OXR fell below support around September 13, and then created a lower low on September 21.

 

[rederob]

I did wonder if legs meant "fundies", instead of "techies".
A Freudian mistake, perhaps!

 

[legs]

I did wonder if legs meant "fundies", instead of "techies".
A Freudian mistake, perhaps!

It was early, sorry it was a mistake.. lesson one..dont reply after a 12hr nightshift...lol Your correct rederob..

 

[legs]

Where do our chart analysists see Oxiana heading now after the last few moves upwards??? :burn:

 

[swingstar]

Where do our chart analysists see Oxiana heading now after the last few moves upwards??? :burn:

Too early to tell from an EW perspective. Nick had a wave 5 at the peak in May, so we may have further corrective (sideways, volatile) movement ahead.

 

[swingstar]

Looks to have found support on that trend...

(ignore the EW count)

Edit: In the last few mins has just touched the high at point B. Up 8% for the day.

 

[legs]

Up 9.03% with 27,430,431 shares traded with an average daily trade of 11,272,900. Waiting for the usual Seargeant Shultz response from Oxiana, "we know nothing" of a takeover.

 

[PorscheACE]

Whats with the massive jump in share price last few hours of trade? Does someone know whats happening to this beauty?

 

[legs]

Can someone confirm that the last trade for the day was a 1,250,000 trade? Was it purchase or sell???

 

[MalteseBull]

Can someone confirm that the last trade for the day was a 1,250,000 trade? Was it purchase or sell???

it's more than likely to be a purchase considering the massive volume and gain it made today...isn't this the first sign of a take-over target?

Look at Vision Systems, there was an initial stake purchase in it followed by an announcement a few days later..


OXR much undervalued considering their latest 3Q results..

I am tipping $4 by end of the year