OXR - Oxiana Limited

[coyotte]

Rederob's list of share holdings shows the difference between a Trader & a Invester --- TSL ( first trach) : from memory this issue reached over $9.00 ; a Trader would have been OUT at the very worst @ around $ 8.10 --- and not riden the stock all the way down to it's present level :

Price action @ the moment is indicating that OXR must break and stay above $3.25 to be a medium term long and the $ 3.25 level is decaying with time


Cheers

 

[nizar]

Rederob's list of share holdings shows the difference between a Trader & a Invester --- TSL ( first trach) : from memory this issue reached over $9.00 ; a Trader would have been OUT at the very worst @ around $ 8.10 --- and not riden the stock all the way down to it's present level :

Price action @ the moment is indicating that OXR must break and stay above $3.25 to be a medium term long and the $ 3.25 level is decaying with time


Cheers

I have exited my position in this stock (at a profit) based on my PH calculations, but continue to watch with interest as some family members still hold.

I tend to favour pure zinc plays at the moment; and uranium is another sector in which we have only seen the beginning IMO

 

[rederob]

Rederob's list of share holdings shows the difference between a Trader & a Invester --- TSL ( first trach) : from memory this issue reached over $9.00 ; a Trader would have been OUT at the very worst @ around $ 8.10 --- and not riden the stock all the way down to it's present level :

Price action @ the moment is indicating that OXR must break and stay above $3.25 to be a medium term long and the $ 3.25 level is decaying with time


Cheers

coyotte
You are right.
For me to sell that tranche I would need to find the HIN, and then find a broker.
It's easier just to keep getting the ff dividends.
My SUN shares were bought around the $6 mark in '98 and have paid for themselves in ff divs since then, so everything else is a profit.
I think the BSL shares I hold were spun off from my BHP holdings around 4 years ago, as they are not on my CHESS holdings. So maybe I got them for free - I'm not sure - I certainly haven't "traded" in them.

As for OXR, I started buying exactly 3 years ago at 80 cents (10K).
As for your technical analysis of OXR, I ignored the same 3 years ago and see no reason to change my mind when the company continues to outperform against almost any yardstick you want to measure it by.
If OXR broke below $2.40 I might be tempted to sell, probably because as a barometer of the commodity market it would be a portend of worse to come.

 

[coyotte]

OXR seems a interesting play at the moment

appears to have hit it's project temp support position 2.75 on the UP trend line but in the past has allways continued DOWN to a break of the bottom bollinger band before rebounding .

Appears to be too much indecision to continue playing this stock -- so have CLOSED all SHORT positions --- but would certainly not be going LONG --- even short term .

If OXR breaks below 2.70 the next level of support (apart from a breach of the Bollinger Bands) is a decaying 1.90 --- as I see it

Refer back to earlier posts on this thread ---- this stock is playing out to plan

 

[Sean K]

Been following OXR for a bit but don't hold yet. Another to consider.

In the paper today:

BASE metals miner Oxiana expects to make a mammoth $500 million profit this year. Oxiana reported a half-year profit of $263.2 million -- more than three times its full-year result last year -- and the company's managing director Owen Hegarty said yesterday he expected the strong performance to continue.

"In the second half of the year we expect to essentially repeat the operating performance of the first half," he told an open briefing posted on the Australian Stock Exchange.

"Given spot prices remain above the first-half average, we would expect our profit for the year to be around the $500 million mark."

Oxiana operates the Sepon gold and copper mine in Laos and the Golden Grove base metals project in Western Australia.

Mr Hegarty said the company was considering expanding Golden Grove, with the potential to re-open the original Scuddles mine to access copper material remains.

The company is also spending $775 million developing the Prominent Hill mine in South Australia.

Mr Hegarty said the outlook for copper, zinc and gold remained strong, with low stockpiles, robust demand and supply-side disruptions keeping prices high.


Chart looks like support at $2.50, oversold on stochastics, and bollinger, and hitting 200d ma to provide support also. Like all the other copper/goldies need these commoditites to pause, but I think it's reflecting their charts also. Gold at $560/75 found support and ready to bounce. Not sure about copper etc charts.

Sorry, no chart - I'm confined to the spare laptop driven by mice while the boss is studying....

I don't hold this or SGX and both are looking like coming into buy territory for believers in the gold bull.

 

[coyotte]

Kennas:

What bollinger bands settings are you using ? those recomended by bollinger show OXR is in a steady decline --- not as yet over sold.

IMO using indicators for a entery is a courages move , best wait untill the price action clears the count back line for a long position --- OXR responds well to count back --- Trend Lines are indicating a possible bounce at 2.43 , but not a arrest of the over all decline ---- you usually need a period of high volume to flush out the last of rhe sellers , this has not yet occured and the avg volume is only helping the eventual support at present a decaying 2.19 come about in a controlled manner.

Thats how I read the weekly/daily charts
I am still SHORT OXR

Cheers

 

[Sean K]

Kennas:

What bollinger bands settings are you using ? those recomended by bollinger show OXR is in a steady decline --- not as yet over sold.

I'm just using the ones on Big Charts pre set at 20. The sp has been skirting the lower band for the past 3 days, and everytime it has gone through over the past 6 months, it has then rebounded to the upper band. So, maybe I should have said almost oversold, but it's close enough to me.

IMO using indicators for a entery is a courages move , best wait untill the price action clears the count back line for a long position --- OXR responds well to count back --- Trend Lines are indicating a possible bounce at 2.43 ,

Not sure how you get 2.43 - can you put a chart up to show that? The only real trend I see atm is a decending triangle with a base at $2.50. If it breaks this, then $2.00 is next support. I reckon if gold breaks $560 then this is a possibility.

you usually need a period of high volume to flush out the last of rhe sellers , this has not yet occured and the avg volume is only helping the eventual support at present a decaying 2.19 come about in a controlled manner.

Thats how I read the weekly/daily charts
I am still SHORT OXR

Cheers

If you're short gold for the moment, then yep, I'd be shorting this too, along with LHG. I'm not certain gold will head back to $540, and am more inclined to think around $560/70 is the base for the next run up. Obviously, there are quite a few people saying $540 is the next downward leg before heading north again. Perhaps I'm just being hopefuly. Perhaps I'm thinking geopolitics is as good as it is right this second too. I think the uneasy peace we have around the place now will be shattered soon with the 'bomb season' about to officially kick off in Indonesia. I'm expecting another big one. The Middle East doesn't need much to kick off again, and there must be a hurricane about to eventuate in the Gulf of Mexico......Plus, Crazy Kim has been quiet in the North - he's just itching to launch another missile over Japan........All good for gold.

 

[coyotte]

Kennas:
Chart and explaination :

B/Bs as explained by Bollinger must be set at 20*2 simple .
Has broken below the important 2.60 support level -- this is the 4th test at that level ---- the 2.43 breach/rebound was also a breach of the lower B/Bs and a verification of the decaying Support level .
Would expect a mild bounce off 2.43 BUT would need to clear both the C/B and the upper channel line before I could consider a Long Position .

The decaying support level with 3 tests is clearly headed for 2.00 or <.

Each time OXR has breached the B/Bs upper/lower it has served the warning as intended by Bollinger.

Volume has not exceeded its 5 d avg, TMP is showing distribution , ADX is showing a strength being generated in the down trend.

Agree with the POG part BUT , OXR is a copper stock , which is being played by some as a Goldie :

 

[Sean K]

Coyotte, Thanks for the chart and analysis. I think we generally agree with a few cents out in parts. I wouldn't describe OXR as just a copper company though. Even the company calls itself a copper-gold miner. I think it's still a big factor in it's ongoing sp, along with copper, yes.

 

[coyotte]

Kennas

Apologise for quality of the chart --- can not seem to find the ideal setting for this site .

Agree with you about OXR and POG , but I bought this up earlier on this thread and was shot down in flames by the F/As --- but I agree OXR seems to be traded as a Goldie.


Cheers

 

[MalteseBull]

nice recovery on the ox today

 

[MalteseBull]

*cough* *cough* possible takeover from Xstrata anyone?

 

[Morgan]

Aaagh! Missed this while I was too busy loading up the trailer with JPR

 

[mikeg]

Have not heard anything, could not find any announcements.

Anybody know?

 

[rederob]

Kennas

Apologise for quality of the chart --- can not seem to find the ideal setting for this site .

Agree with you about OXR and POG , but I bought this up earlier on this thread and was shot down in flames by the F/As --- but I agree OXR seems to be traded as a Goldie.


Cheers

Looking forward to your next post, coyotte.

 

[jet-r]

something is looming.
this is exactly what happened to HDR the day before the takeover announcement.
The last ten trades at 4:10pm are sold at $3.00, 3% higher than the 4pm closing sp.

 

[MalteseBull]

Have not heard anything, could not find any announcements.

Anybody know?

from other sources (hotcopper) and comsec chat they are saying possibly ZFX but my money is on Xstrata..

Xstrata missed on WMC so i beleive OXR (second largest gold miner in aus behind NCM) is on the spotlight

 

[Sean K]

Xstrata are due to decide on taking 62% of IRN this week, so maybe not. Or, maybe they're going to pick both up?

 

[Knobby22]

Could be anyone.
It would be a shame as the shares are worth much more than $3.00.

 

[Halba]

most of the resource sector is trading at about 100% below their real value anyway and most of these undervalued ones i hold cept ox!