OXR - Oxiana Limited

[Lucstar]

Why do you guys think that metal prices will cool?
I mean China is in the greatest boom of all time and this boom will be sustained at least until the Olympics are over. For example, i don't see the iron ore prices busting any time soon. Maybe you guys are right in the fact that the commodity boom is unsustainable long term. However, i dont see any eractic downfalls in the short term

 

[michael_selway]

Why do you guys think that metal prices will cool?
I mean China is in the greatest boom of all time and this boom will be sustained at least until the Olympics are over. For example, i don't see the iron ore prices busting any time soon. Maybe you guys are right in the fact that the commodity boom is unsustainable long term. However, i dont see any eractic downfalls in the short term

yeah i agree with that, olympics is a big motivational driver atm, once its over surely there will be slow down

However prices can go ahead of themselves in the ST so thus a pull back

Also DOW Jones can affect everything, so if DOW is bearish, everything will generally be bearish regardless

thx

MS

 

[clowboy]

MOSES,

That was such an AWESOME reply. Worthy of framing. I could not have portryed my feelings better. I much prefer "normal" days also.

 

[LPA]

So begins another 'interesting' day....

$2.96 at open. Big drop in the asx - I wonder where this will go now Yet another crazy day to help me add to my store of knowledge!

 

[ctp6360]

ZFX has been going non-stop up since open though, haha wouldn't you kill yourself if youwere one of the ones that sold at 10.65, anyway I might be calling all of them SMART in a few days if things keep going this badly! My god lucky I have a strong heart!

 

[professor_frink]

be careful catching those knives ctp, works most of the time, but eventually you'll get cut!

 

[LPA]

Oh well, I think I'm just going to stop watching for the rest of the week now lol

I have faith that OXR is a fantastic company that will continue to have great growth (maybe not stupidly unrealistic market speculation growth but growth all the same), and once they sort out this Prominent Hill project in August I have a feeling their stock price is going to go up quite nicely.....time to hold on to the rollercoaster I feel - although I am now out of profit entirely with them for the time being and no more funds available to top up at all for this month...and $3.14 looked like such a nice number :

Nice lesson learnt here for me about not 'catching falling knives' too I need to slow down my decision making process a bit...

 

[rederob]

The drop in OXR's share price is more than double that of the commodities it produces.
On the assumption there will be a bounce (and I seldom get these calls wrong), OXR will handsomely reward its patient fans and knife-cut opportunists.
Just remember that the fall in copper prices just a month ago was more severe in percentage terms and occurred when copper peaked just over $3.20 - copper has fallen to $3.55 today.
By the same token, gold at that time (25 April) was below $640 whereas its nearer $690 today.
So those that are in "fear" of the markets may make the mistake of selling into an already oversold market.
I reckon if copper goes $2.80 (the 27 April low) then we could have a new ballgame.
Not sure that world economies are in such bad shape - nickel prices actually rose overnight on tightening demand!

 

[LPA]

Well whichever analyst it was that said we would see OXR go to about $2.80 was right on the money. Opened at around $2.88 this morning....

How much lower can it really go?

 

[redandgreen]

What a blood bath....
Does anyone have any idea where the resistance point might be?

 

[LPA]

Just broke below $2.60

Also, can somebody help a new guy out and tell us what the value of the shares should be based on earnings and projected growth?

Is it's real value around the $2 mark that it was hovering near at the start of the year? I would just like some information on when this stock becomes too cheap so that I can average down and hopefully make back my losses more quickly when it goes back up

I'm not too good at all the fundamental analysis so I would be quite interested in where this company stands because everybody was saying how cheap it was when it was at $3.50! Well if that's cheap, then this is getting psychotic crazy bargain cheap :

 

[redandgreen]

the low point for this stock , i.e. the most pessimistic analyst target price is $2.20 . This is the bare bones SP stripped of all the hype.

 

[Warren Buffet II]

Just broke below $2.60

Also, can somebody help a new guy out and tell us what the value of the shares should be based on earnings and projected growth?

Is it's real value around the $2 mark that it was hovering near at the start of the year? I would just like some information on when this stock becomes too cheap so that I can average down and hopefully make back my losses more quickly when it goes back up

I'm not too good at all the fundamental analysis so I would be quite interested in where this company stands because everybody was saying how cheap it was when it was at $3.50! Well if that's cheap, then this is getting psychotic crazy bargain cheap :

This is no about fundamentals of anything, this share can go down to $2 next week if the market keeps this aversion against commodities and if the Fed increases rates next time again, you can be sure it will touch $2 and will keep going.

So put your stops very tight because the ride could be long and can hurt you.

WBII

 

[nizar]

This is no about fundamentals of anything, this share can go down to $2 next week if the market keeps this aversion against commodities and if the Fed increases rates next time again, you can be sure it will touch $2 and will keep going.

So put your stops very tight because the ride could be long and can hurt you.

WBII

True Warren

The shorter the time-frame u are looking at, the more fundamentals dont matter...

ALot of negative press and several people sitting of SIGNIFICANT gains with OXR, remember on october 24 bottom it was close to $1...

But i dont think Fed increasing rates has anything to do with us
Last year they rose rates 12 times, every month and our market still made significant gains...

Metals and Gold is the driver, when they recover, our market recovers

 

[Warren Buffet II]

True Warren

The shorter the time-frame u are looking at, the more fundamentals dont matter...

ALot of negative press and several people sitting of SIGNIFICANT gains with OXR, remember on october 24 bottom it was close to $1...

But i dont think Fed increasing rates has anything to do with us
Last year they rose rates 12 times, every month and our market still made significant gains...

Metals and Gold is the driver, when they recover, our market recovers

Hi Nizar,

The issue now with Fed is that there are clear signs that inflation is picking up, last year they were just adjusting the rates to more normal ones, now the increases are because inflation is firing up and they need to stop it.

WBII

 

[LPA]

Well, I must say that I'm not interested in this stocks in the short term - this was an investment, not a trading strategy...so I'm still quite happy about the company as a whole.

I guess we'll have to wait and see what it does at opening tomorrow. It almost went below $2.50 today, which is basically my average-down threshold and if it drops below about $2.45 I will buy more (although I did that when it dropped below $3.15 lol). In the longer term I know that the rest of this year will be good for them - just wait until the Indian wedding season kicks off at the end of the year to see what real gold prices look like ...for an unhedged producer it will be bliss (India accounts for about 25% of the gold market atm). Probably followed by another disatrous may in '07 : stupid dang traders (as opposed to investors) speculating on a day to day basis and stressing me out! j/k of course as I know most people here are traders ...

 

[LPA]

ALot of negative press and several people sitting of SIGNIFICANT gains with OXR, remember on october 24 bottom it was close to $1...

What negative press? is that about resources in general? I haven't heard anything negative about OXR directly over the last few weeks...

Also, I'm sure alot of people were sitting on significant gains when BHP was at like $18 - I wouldn't want to be one of those profit takers now.

Also, about having tight stops...As an INVESTOR not a TRADER should I really be that concerned about the volatility at the moment? I say this because it is nearing my 20% loss boundary that I set for myself....but If I sell in such volatile/speculative times surely that is selling because of emotion and ignoring the fact that this company is still pulling gold and copper etc. out of the ground AS WE SPEAK and making a pretty large profit margin on it even if gold was at $500...as a long term investment that seems like a good thing to me no? Having said that, the traders clearly rule the stockmarket and don't give two hoots what the investors think!

 

[nizar]

What negative press? is that about resources in general? I haven't heard anything negative about OXR directly over the last few weeks...

Also, I'm sure alot of people were sitting on significant gains when BHP was at like $18 - I wouldn't want to be one of those profit takers now.

Also, about having tight stops...As an INVESTOR not a TRADER should I really be that concerned about the volatility at the moment? I say this because it is nearing my 20% loss boundary that I set for myself....but If I sell in such volatile/speculative times surely that is selling because of emotion and ignoring the fact that this company is still pulling gold and copper etc. out of the ground AS WE SPEAK and making a pretty large profit margin on it even if gold was at $500...as a long term investment that seems like a good thing to me no? Having said that, the traders clearly rule the stockmarket and don't give two hoots what the investors think!

LPA i meant negative press about stocks in general

Now to answer ur earlier question about the value of OXR
bvbfan did a post earlier i think last month about earnings for OXR for this year using (then) current prices, which are still lower than commodity prices now

He came to about au$500million NPAT for FY2006

The prices he used are likely to be the average or even below average, becoz they were conservative estimates, for 2006..

GOlden Grove is a ZINC MACHINE....

Nothing to worry about longer term

To answer ur earlier question about value of OXR
500mil is 38cps
pe of 10, so $3.80 is fair value, so now its considerably undervalued...

 

[coyotte]

What negative press? is that about resources in general? I haven't heard anything negative about OXR directly over the last few weeks...

Also, I'm sure alot of people were sitting on significant gains when BHP was at like $18 - I wouldn't want to be one of those profit takers now.

Also, about having tight stops...As an INVESTOR not a TRADER should I really be that concerned about the volatility at the moment? I say this because it is nearing my 20% loss boundary that I set for myself....but If I sell in such volatile/speculative times surely that is selling because of emotion and ignoring the fact that this company is still pulling gold and copper etc. out of the ground AS WE SPEAK and making a pretty large profit margin on it even if gold was at $500...as a long term investment that seems like a good thing to me no? Having said that, the traders clearly rule the stockmarket and don't give two hoots what the investors think!

Think your missing the point

using just a simple 21d EMA with BHP & buying /selling the next day after the signal

Sell March 05 $18

Buy June 05 $17
Sell Oct 05 $21

Buy Nov 05 $20
Sell Feb 06 $25

Buy March 06 $24
Sell May 06 $30

Profits a bit better than any div along the way

Don't blame traders for this drop ---- they would have ALL been out of OXR
long before it passed down below $3.30

i was out on May 9 when indicators where strongly diverging from the High
and would srongly suspect that so where a lot of others


probably best to wait for some consolidation after a fall like this -- bewary of a "dead cat bounce " -- most miners could go even lower -- ( flushed all the buyers out )


Best of luck
Coyotte

 

[markrmau]

pe of 10, so $3.80 is fair value

Just be careful here, it is not appropriate to use simple p/e ratios to value a mining stock. Many other factors need to be taken into account: mine life, commodity prices going forwards, risk of beaconsfield or cbh style cavein etc...