OXR - Oxiana Limited

[Sean K]

Will probably follow the gold price LPA.

So, my bet is correction/consolidation for a week or month, and then it's on it's way back up over the next few months to 2 years. This would be the consevative view in this forum. Some will say it could rocket again tomorrow.....

 

[Sean K]

Or......

1542 [Dow Jones] Oxiana (OXR.AU) down 13% at A$3.07, Zinifex (ZFX.AU) down 10% at A$11.13. Dealer tips further 10% fall in both stocks near term. "The problem is everyone's bottom fishing in Oxiana (OXR.AU) and Zinifex (ZFX.AU), but even if metal prices are up tomorrow, who's going to be the marginal buyer?" Tips Oxiana fall to A$2.80, Zinifex (ZFX.AU) to A$10.00 tomorrow. (DWR)

 

[tech/a]

Dont guess the market.

Trade with it and give it time to develope.
Patience can be very profitable.

 

[Fab]

I believe this correction we are seeing is very healthy for the resources stocks it went a bit too high too fast for my liking. If you are there for the mid to long term there is no worry to have the upward trend will resume. May is often a volatile month anyway I believe June will be too.
Not a bad time to pick up some bargain so, I believe it will go further down.

 

[clowboy]

Looks like the carnage is just beggining.

Sigh,

Day's like today I would rather forget but alas this is wehn we learn the most.

 

[LPA]

Honestly, I don't see why the carnage should continue...But I agree completely with the learning statement I've learnt alot in the past few days - the number one thing being DON'T LISTEN TO ANYBODY.......everyone will be wrong, until they are right and then jump up and down telling you 'told you so!'.

I bought at $3.13 based on my own research and the spike in price (caught it midway).

I should of sold at $3.75 when everyone was saying it would pop $4.00 in a week or two.

I listened when people said it was just a small correction and held on when I saw it reach $3.55.

Today it started at about $3.20, and I bought at $3.14 because nobody seemed to think it would drop much further than that (plus it was what I paid for it originally basically so I was happy to add to my stocks).

Now people are saying $2.80? over a 30% drop in three days? based on nothing but speculation that the metal rush is over......ouch. So if I listen to these people I should sell now and buy again tomorrow (well, too late to do it NOW). I just know that if I did that they would open at like $3.35 and I would lose out again.

Basically the stock that I chose a month ago and thought was doing great has just become one of the biggest losers (probably THE biggest) of this 'consolidation' period. Trying to keep my head together is hard I must say, particularly as a new low-level player. But I'm going to hold onto my stocks now.....OXR all the way! I'm just waiting for an August announcement from them, that should get the fires burning again...

oh, and one final..............*SIGH* stupid stock market :

 

[clowboy]

LPA, I can barley get my head around the carnage starting yet alone see why it would continue - that is what makes me think it may. Comodity prices haven't even droped that much (compared to where they where a month or two ago) and yet here we all are bleeding. As for the biggest loser - I doubt it. KLZ lost far more than OXR today (% terms) and im sure there are many more out there.

Nothing like losing a months worth of gains in two days

 

[crayfish]

In mid April OXR went though $3, WHEN

Cu was $3/lb AND
Au was $610-620/oz

Both commodities are still way above these levels despite the drop in commodity prices this week, yet OXR has gone down towards that $3 mark of a month ago (well closed at $3.08). Does this equal panic selling?

While Cu and Zn prices stay near record highs OXR will make a filthy amount of money. In fact Cu would have to go beneath $2 for OXR not to make a filthy amount of money.

Currently:
Cu is $3.49/lb
Au is $675/oz
Zn is $1.40/lb

Wait for a full year of production from Golden Grove, the Prominent Hill announcement, and did anyone mention the A word? Or was it the T word? I'll stick with em.

 

[nizar]

In mid April OXR went though $3, WHEN

Cu was $3/lb AND
Au was $610-620/oz

Both commodities are still way above these levels despite the drop in commodity prices this week, yet OXR has gone down towards that $3 mark of a month ago (well closed at $3.08). Does this equal panic selling?

While Cu and Zn prices stay near record highs OXR will make a filthy amount of money. In fact Cu would have to go beneath $2 for OXR not to make a filthy amount of money.

Currently:
Cu is $3.49/lb
Au is $675/oz
Zn is $1.40/lb

Wait for a full year of production from Golden Grove, the Prominent Hill announcement, and did anyone mention the A word? Or was it the T word? I'll stick with em.

Agree

I will also stick with them until at least when Prominent Hill starts production H2 2008

Copper costs are 85c/lb and Zinc costs are 35c/lb or lower, 20c/lb if u take into account lead credits

LOOK AT THEIR MARGINS

Great advice there by tech, thats my view 100%, top up after the stock has bottomed and is on the way up

Nothing has changed fundamentally with OXR, the demand for their products is still there, and LME supplies of zinc and copper are still RUNNING OUT

This is one to hold for the long-term and accumulate on dips...

 

[GreatPig]

Nothing like losing a months worth of gains in two days

Yeah, almost as bad as having to hand it over to the tax man...

GP

 

[nizar]

Honestly, I don't see why the carnage should continue...But I agree completely with the learning statement I've learnt alot in the past few days - the number one thing being DON'T LISTEN TO ANYBODY.......everyone will be wrong, until they are right and then jump up and down telling you 'told you so!'.

I bought at $3.13 based on my own research and the spike in price (caught it midway).

I should of sold at $3.75 when everyone was saying it would pop $4.00 in a week or two.

I listened when people said it was just a small correction and held on when I saw it reach $3.55.

Today it started at about $3.20, and I bought at $3.14 because nobody seemed to think it would drop much further than that (plus it was what I paid for it originally basically so I was happy to add to my stocks).

Now people are saying $2.80? over a 30% drop in three days? based on nothing but speculation that the metal rush is over......ouch. So if I listen to these people I should sell now and buy again tomorrow (well, too late to do it NOW). I just know that if I did that they would open at like $3.35 and I would lose out again.

Basically the stock that I chose a month ago and thought was doing great has just become one of the biggest losers (probably THE biggest) of this 'consolidation' period. Trying to keep my head together is hard I must say, particularly as a new low-level player. But I'm going to hold onto my stocks now.....OXR all the way! I'm just waiting for an August announcement from them, that should get the fires burning again...

oh, and one final..............*SIGH* stupid stock market :

Brother stocks cannot keep going up forever

In May last year the index bottomed out at 3900, at the end of september was nearly 4800, fell to the high 4300s (oct24) and now in May, almost 5300 at the peaks... it has gone up 1000points (asx200) in less than 7 months

BHP at the october lows i remmeber was 19.48 and WPL 29.00, now at the highs almost 60% higher...

When the market goes up so fast in a short period of time, there is bound to be a correction, especially last week moved upwards very fast

Underlying fundamentals are still there, resource companies VERY profitable at the minute, but the shorter the time-frame ur looking at, the less fundamentals matter

For OXR, metals and gold were the main drivers of the share price, so of course, when they go down, OXR too will go down...

There is every reason for this to continue, to be honest, even though i lost a few Gs today and yesterday and probably a few more 2mrw, its better if we go down 8-10% like in october, all that will do is it will make the next leg up stronger

Even if we fall to 4400 (God forbid) the long-term is still up, as Wayne said, so nothing to worry about

LPA, u can sell whenever u make 15% gain or wateva, but the risk there is, if it runs away from u, u have to pay more $$$ to get in

I think some people new to the markets dont know what it feels like to lose money and for stocks to go down. We are still in a roaring bull-market, this correction will provide a buying opportunity for those who think they have missed the boat and for those who want to top up, and that buying will ignite the next leg of this bullrun

We may have a few more down weeks to go though, but like i said, when it comes back, it ill be much stronger and touch new highs (the resource stocks especially)

 

[rederob]

Yeah, almost as bad as having to hand it over to the tax man...
GP

I lost today what I would have had to pay on CGT had I sold OXR on the high last week.
Costello can wait until I have worked out how to transfer the profits into super - maybe have to run for Parliament on a super platform!
How do aI change my nic to Senatorederob?

 

[bvbfan]

If you look back at the history of OXR its had some great runs and severe pullbacks.
A few years ago it ran hard to 1.15 then pulled back to 75c nearly a 35% pullback.

Also the zinc price has dropped about 10% overnight, that should be the main driver not gold.

Zinc down from 1.70 to 1.50 area or about 60 million in revenue for OXR or about 15% in revenues in zinc alone
I think copper probably bit better in percentage terms

And its still well above my calculations from earlier in the thread which I figured would lead to 550mill in profit.
At now trading at a projected P/E of under 8 if we use 3.05 and the 550mill figure.


Would I buy now, probably not, likely too funds liquidating the commodities but this could be the opportunity for one of the the long rumoured takeover offers emerge.
I think we'll see under $3 this week


Just my opinion

 

[coyotte]

Excellent learning situation this

XAU has been around 4.5 for the last couple of months ( in the 3s indicates over bought , in the 5s oversold ) indicating POG was rising too fast

The mining stocks I follow inc. ORX where not indicating any fall in in base metals EXCEPT that since mid April as they continued to make new highs the
ADX indicator has been showing showing a weakening tread (i had put this down to May-June )

So have we seen a break in the tradition of stocks indicating the direction of their underlying asset ---- or is this just a major shake-out

Yikes-- we might need a new Federal Budget!!

Cheers
Coyotte

 

[blinkau]

I got in at $3.49 which was a bit too expensive. I only put in a small amount as i felt it was fairly high but its a good learning experince, I seen the highs now the lows comming around. You gotta wonder about the people who purchased it on Friday must be kicking themselves now

Im guessing tomorrow we will open below $3 im wondering might be time to sotckup again if we see it reach $2.80. Over the long-term though im sure it will recover. Seen red all over IRESS today with all the stocks in my watch list

 

[rederob]

I got in at $3.49 which was a bit too expensive. I only put in a small amount as i felt it was fairly high but its a good learning experince, I seen the highs now the lows comming around. You gotta wonder about the people who purchased it on Friday must be kicking themselves now

Im guessing tomorrow we will open below $3 im wondering might be time to sotckup again if we see it reach $2.80. Over the long-term though im sure it will recover. Seen red all over IRESS today with all the stocks in my watch list

Buy the dips in a rising market - it's hard to lose in the long term.
I was posting this same message about OXR when it was under 80 cents, and I was buying then.
I also bought more OXR today at the close.
I have never sold any of my OXR shares as the company is one of the few unhedged metal producers in the world.
In a commodity bull market it's the unhedged producers that are leveraged to rising/falling prices (like ZFX for zinc, and LHG for gold), and it's these stock that move mega percentages when the market runs.
Trust your judgement: OXR is a world class company that is making cash in spades.

 

[markrmau]

Looks like those who bought in the arvo yesterday will see a fantastic short cover kick in the morning (based on gold/copper as I write). Congrats.

Just a note if you are new to investing, this would have been a gamble that paid off. However, it is not a SAFE way to trade for beginners. Don't expect that just because everything turned out rosy this time, it will always be so.

 

[mlennox]

1230 CFDs in OXR @ 2.47 = $3001.20 @ 3% margin I had to front up with $150
1230 CFDS in OXR @ 3.74 = $4600.20

Gross Profit $1600.20
Less brokerage $20
Less interest $46.25

Net Profit $1532.75

Who said CFDs were rubbish again ?

I'll be looking to rebuy into OXR when the time is right the fundamentals are unchanged but the market has definately run ahead of itself and this correction was more then due.

 

[mlennox]

1230 CFDs in OXR @ 2.47 = $3001.20 @ 5% margin I had to front up with $150
1230 CFDS in OXR @ 3.74 = $4600.20

Gross Profit $1600.20
Less brokerage $20
Less interest $46.25

Net Profit $1532.75

Who said CFDs were rubbish again ?

I'll be looking to rebuy into OXR when the time is right the fundamentals are unchanged but the market has definately run ahead of itself and this correction was more then due.

slight error

 

[LPA]

Well, it opens at $3.23

Looks like we were lucky with that one yesterday Rederob Thanks for the advice as I now have twice as much stock as before because of your suggestion and it looks like (at this very early stage) it will recover nicely...

No more big gold, copper, or zinc drops please!