OXR - Oxiana Limited

[Sean K]

Don't get too excited LPA.

Be prepared for some more rocky waters ahead!

 

[LPA]

Yeah don't worry I am It was just nice to see something positive in the morning after the last two days But I remain optimistic...

*edit* Gold is now sitting just shy of 700 again and OXR is at $3.26. Hopefully it can hold above 690 for the rest of the week, then we are good to go...no?

Well all the mining stocks are being bought again on the rally; top 5 most active stocks so far:

1. BHP BHP BLT FPO 3025 +32 +1.1%
2. OXR OXIANA FPO 321 +13 +4.2%
3. ZFX ZINIFEX FPO 1166 +66 +6.0%
4. AMP AMP FPO 993 +8 +0.8%
5. RIO RIO TINTO FPO 8324 +69 +0.8%

p.s. Please someone tell me if my constant updates are pointless or annoying .....Just the best way to learn about these things for me, plus the vested interest

 

[rederob]

Well, it opens at $3.23
No more big gold, copper, or zinc drops please!

How else do you make the big profits?
markrmau wants us to exercise caution - perhaps buying when the market turns up.
Fortune favours the bold, and battlefields are littered with the dead.
So don't go into the kitchen if you want others to cook for you!

 

[michael_selway]

No more big gold, copper, or zinc drops please!

Actually there probably will be, its a volatile market esp when we are at all time highs

So caution as always, however medium term should be up, although longer term might be a turn around, so depends.

thx

MS

 

[LPA]

How else do you make the big profits?

True...True...but give me some time to figure out what I'm doing in the market first! lol

Thanks again for the help everyone...

 

[nizar]

Don't get too excited LPA.

Be prepared for some more rocky waters ahead!

I second that

We could still have that 8-10% correction we are due to have... and THEN... after everything gets hit hard... the buying will cause the next upwards leg in this bullish market

Its risky to be buying on a day like today IMO...

The market has still run very hard very fast so a correction is still coming...

 

[LPA]

Does a market correction mean that OXR will go down as well even if gold/copper keeps steady or slowly higher? I mean we did see a 20% roughly drop in OXR over the last two days....isn't that a correction? Just trying to get my head around these things and the people here are so good at answering my questions I'm not going to stop asking

 

[professor_frink]

nizar, gold has already moved down by nearly 8% from its highs last week.
I do agree it's a little too early to jump back on board though, unless your very brave!

 

[michael_selway]

Does a market correction mean that OXR will go down as well even if gold/copper keeps steady or slowly higher? I mean we did see a 20% roughly drop in OXR over the last two days....isn't that a correction? Just trying to get my head around these things and the people here are so good at answering my questions I'm not going to stop asking

for OXR correction can be caused by a fall in commodities prices, which will also affect most resources stocks

Fall in DOW Jones affects everything, so OXR can be corrected that way also

thx

MS

 

[Sean K]

I think the market correction most people have in mind when we talk about 'correction' is the All Ords, or ASX200 declining 8%, not individual stocks or even sectors.

Individual commodities have gone up between 100% and 400% over the past 2 years. A 10% drop in gold or zinc can not be considered a 'correction' under these conditions.

 

[LPA]

Another question about corrections ....Is it typical for a market to bounce back like it has this morning (30 points)? If it does bounce back, then the correction hasn't really happened right and we should expect it again?

*edit* and we're over 700 once more for gold

 

[markrmau]

Is it typical for a market to bounce back like it has this morning (30 points)?

NO! One day the metals market WILL cool. The asx will then go into a prolonged bear market. It will be death by a thousand cuts.

Everyone will be hanging on, buying dips and thinking what a bargain they are getting stock for which was significantly more expensive the previous year. It will continue to drop and eventually they will realize they have fooled themselves and sell out for significant loss. Don't let this be you!

We are playing musical chairs here and there sure as hell aren't enough chairs. We just don't know when the music will stop.


Edit: How appropriate for my post #666. Didn't notice until I hit submit!

 

[LPA]

I love that your doomsday post is your 666th Not a good omen!

 

[bvbfan]

NO! One day the metals market WILL cool. The asx will then go into a prolonged bear market. It will be death by a thousand cuts.

Everyone will be hanging on, buying dips and thinking what a bargain they are getting stock for which was significantly more expensive the previous year. It will continue to drop and eventually they will realize they have fooled themselves and sell out for significant loss. Don't let this be you!

Sounds just like the NASDAQ - tech bubble bust. Those that lived through that should be able to understand this current situation a little better.

We've had a few corrections along the way but watch for lower lows in commodity prices. That will be a trigger for a mass exit

 

[rederob]

We are playing musical chairs here and there sure as hell aren't enough chairs. We just don't know when the music will stop.

In commodities, Mark, what is your time frame?
I have a sneaking suspicion that commodities will stay strong for as long as BRIC nations are determined to become "westernised" - a generation or more.
Within that time frame we will probably have a few mini boom and bust cycles as overproduction begats price collapse, and then under investment begats supply shortfalls and price spikes, etc, etc.
It will probably mean for OXR that we see it go through phases similar to those for BHP. Except that BHP endured the doldrums from the previous resource boom of the 80s: All it did was make the company more determined, focussed and competent in its core business. So it bounces back with a vengeance when the next cycle resumes.

 

[michael_selway]

In commodities, Mark, what is your time frame?
I have a sneaking suspicion that commodities will stay strong for as long as BRIC nations are determined to become "westernised" - a generation or more.
Within that time frame we will probably have a few mini boom and bust cycles as overproduction begats price collapse, and then under investment begats supply shortfalls and price spikes, etc, etc.
It will probably mean for OXR that we see it go through phases similar to those for BHP. Except that BHP endured the doldrums from the previous resource boom of the 80s: All it did was make the company more determined, focussed and competent in its core business. So it bounces back with a vengeance when the next cycle resumes.

rederob, when do u think is the next commodities bear market?

also do u think Africa will ever be a "china/india" on day? maybe the next supercycle bull market after this one is over?

thx

MS

 

[Sean K]

rederob, you are right about BRIC, as long as the world aconomy stays ok and there's no big wars. By big, I mean Christain v Islamic world with maybe China and Russia backing either side.

The period 2000 - 2030 will be known as the BRIC evolution. Chindia will lead for most of this period, but I truelly believe that even the most bullish of us are underestimating what the shift from the countryside to the city will mean to these countries. Millions and millions and millions of people are going to need roads, footpaths, sanitation, telephones, TVs, medicine, sports stadiums, newspapers, computers, shoes, shoe laces, yada yada yada.

And most of all POWER! Just where is it going to come from?

 

[rederob]

rederob, when do u think is the next commodities bear market?
also do u think Africa will ever be a "china/india" on day? maybe the next supercycle bull market after this one is over?

MS
When the US economy's wheels fall off and its train wreck impacts on those nations that have bought its debt - that's just about everyone - we will have a big bear market.
Between now and then we should see some commodities run hot and cold: Titanium for the aerospace industry will be the next kicker, while lead prices have only the coat tails of copper to draw them on.
Africa will not get close to becoming westernised in my lifetime, unless I become a centurion, or unless western nations return cash or in kind support to reimburse them for much of the wealth we have stripped from them.

 

[rederob]

MS
When the US economy's wheels fall off and its train wreck impacts on those nations that have bought its debt - that's just about everyone - we will have a big bear market.

Maybe one of the wheels fell off last night.
Although copper is only 2% lower than Tuesday's close and gold is actually 2% higher.
As the morning lights up there is a slow recovery in silver prices - up 35cents from its $12.90 session low.
Will be an interesting day.

 

[moses]

I've decided I don't like interesting days...