OXR - Oxiana Limited

[michael_selway]

Just be careful here, it is not appropriate to use simple p/e ratios to value a mining stock. Many other factors need to be taken into account: mine life, commodity prices going forwards, risk of beaconsfield or cbh style cavein etc...

thats true u know, btw here are the new OXR forecasts

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 5.6 30.4 20.3 13.4
DPS -- 2.0 2.0 2.0

thx

MS

 

[LPA]

Thanks for the replies everyone, interesting reading and it has taught me alot...

I guess I'll just sit on this one...I just have the feeling that if I sell to cut my losses during such a turbulent month I will be kicking myself later for it. Also, at the level that I am trading, brokerage fees start to add up after a few trades and really do start to make an impact. Time to go do something else for a week or so and then revisit....Hopefully they won't have gone bust by then

 

[Fung]

Think your missing the point

using just a simple 21d EMA with BHP & buying /selling the next day after the signal

Sell March 05 $18

Buy June 05 $17
Sell Oct 05 $21

Buy Nov 05 $20
Sell Feb 06 $25

Buy March 06 $24
Sell May 06 $30

Profits a bit better than any div along the way

Don't blame traders for this drop ---- they would have ALL been out of OXR
long before it passed down below $3.30

i was out on May 9 when indicators where strongly diverging from the High
and would srongly suspect that so where a lot of others


probably best to wait for some consolidation after a fall like this -- bewary of a "dead cat bounce " -- most miners could go even lower -- ( flushed all the buyers out )


Best of luck
Coyotte

Just wondering what's the signal which makes you buy/sell ?

 

[coyotte]

Just wondering what's the signal which makes you buy/sell ?

BHP was just a simple example

But with OXR -- for confirmation of Price action (No 1)

ADX -- 21/13 and/or 14/7
Twiggs Money Flow 14 and/or 21
OBV ---- 13

ADX had been flatening since April 24 --- D+ falling -- D- rising with confirmation
on may 4 (short term ) ADX 14/7 cross over & falling


TMF heading lower against higher Prices
OBV neutrial
red candles 2 to 1 near the top

the weight of evidence pointed to a short term correction ( not a massacer)
SELL May 9 & Buy back on recovery


But those 3 Doji after May9 would have been more than enough if i was still in
in OXR @ the time



Cheers Coyotte

 

[LPA]

Copper up 12%, gold regaining some ground and staying pretty stable....should be a good day for OXR.

Damn I wish I had more cash two days ago

 

[Fung]

BHP was just a simple example

But with OXR -- for confirmation of Price action (No 1)

ADX -- 21/13 and/or 14/7
Twiggs Money Flow 14 and/or 21
OBV ---- 13

ADX had been flatening since April 24 --- D+ falling -- D- rising with confirmation
on may 4 (short term ) ADX 14/7 cross over & falling


TMF heading lower against higher Prices
OBV neutrial
red candles 2 to 1 near the top

the weight of evidence pointed to a short term correction ( not a massacer)
SELL May 9 & Buy back on recovery


But those 3 Doji after May9 would have been more than enough if i was still in
in OXR @ the time



Cheers Coyotte

Hmm.... Thanks for you reply but i don't really understands..
Would you please explain futuremore? Sorry i am a newbie and i am trying to learn.

 

[coyotte]

Fung
If you go to www.incrediblecharts.com and download the free software, i'll show you what i was looking at:

@ View ---- Candles
@ Indicators -- set up a ADX 14 with optinal smoothing 7
@ Indicators -- Twiggs Money Flow ---- 14


ADX --- you will notice that since April 24 OXR was making new highs But the D+ line is diverging down ( which is also shown on the 21/13 setup ) which is indicating that the trend is weakening
on May 4 the ADX crosses below the 13Day line ( signaling a exit )
OXR continues to make more highs --- but ADX continues to fall and stay below the 7 day trigger line ---- D+ continues to fall or flaten


Twiggs Money Flow -- Since April 20 TMF had been diverging down (indicating distribution) whilst OXR made new highs --- when i noticed this i switched from medium ( 21/13 day indicator settings to shorter 14/7 )

Price : Red Candels where becoming greater than green -- indicating selling @ end of day --- tails on the greens where mostly UP ( indicating selling at the higher prices ) the non-confirmed Doji and compressing Ave True Range showed the OXR probably wasn't being chased anymore !


Keep your stops tight (switch from L/M term to Short term settings) when a
stock just looks like its getting toppy

If your wrong just buy back in --- if your right buy back in @ cheaper price when it is safe do do so --- OXR @ the moment would have stay above $3.30 using count back methods --- May22 Low to May17 High

Apart from Price Action (Candels, TrendLine, MAs,Patterns) i only use the ADX and TMF ---- KISS


Entery similar exept Volume and if appliable "Count Back" MUST be verified


hope this is of help
if not feel welcome to continue

you will find Incredible Charts has all you need for position trading -- have to juggle a bit to include GMMAs -- and its FREE with a very helpfull forum



Cheers
Coyotte

 

[coyotte]

Fung

A correctly set-up ADX has 4 lines

1: D+ or P(ositive ) Bulls

2: D- or N(egative) Bears

3: ADX ( usually set @ 21 or 14 )

4: ADX trigger line ( usually a setting 50% to 66% of ADX )

in a long Position the ADX must remain above the Trigger Line

 

[LPA]

http://www.oxiana.com.au/_data/docs/announcements/2006/00617432.pdf

Oxiana to Sell its Philippines Interest to Royalco

What do people think about this news? Any thoughts as to how this may affect the stock price next week...

Also, does anybody here think that the IPO would be a good buy?

 

[lewstherin]

I wouldn't touch any mining companies that had majority interests in the Phillipines mainly because the Phili government are seriously untrustworthy and corrupt, plus they are heavily influenced by anti-mining Catholic bishops. Have a look at my comments in the LAF thread for what can happen.

Maybe if the Philis get their crap together, but until then major sovereign risk.

IMO, its probably a good move for OXR to get rid of what could be a very risky venture.

 

[Knobby22]

I wouldn't touch any mining companies that had majority interests in the Phillipines mainly because the Phili government are seriously untrustworthy and corrupt, plus they are heavily influenced by anti-mining Catholic bishops. Have a look at my comments in the LAF thread for what can happen.

Maybe if the Philis get their crap together, but until then major sovereign risk.

IMO, its probably a good move for OXR to get rid of what could be a very risky venture.

What a load of crap. It's corruption that's the problem.

 

[redandgreen]

Have a look at how well IRN has performed since listing.
Another copper/gold exploration company in Mindanao, Phillipines.
It might just be worth buying into Royalco IPO at 50c.

 

[kariba]

http://www.oxiana.com.au/_data/docs/announcements/2006/00617432.pdf
What do people think about this news? Any thoughts as to how this may affect the stock price next week...
Also, does anybody here think that the IPO would be a good buy?

IPO should do well IMO

But I doubt that it will have much impact in OXR's share price .... way too big for that. But, they are developing a nice diversified shareholding in various companies!

OXR what a great stock!!!

cheers

cheers

 

[MalteseBull]

MASSIVE BUYING GOING ON NOW! incrediable never seen anything like it 3.11/3.12

 

[Fab]

Yep and big selling at 3.20

 

[kariba]

Great day for the OX! Some BIG buying happening through the day - normally an indication that one of the metals is about to run. Looks like it is going to be copper, with LME stocks reportedly low

cheers

 

[jovialTrader]

OXR suddenly just jumped up to + 3.36% in the past 10 mins. Any Idea why? any big news in US?

Cant be as the Gold market has ended? any leads?

JT

 

[redandgreen]

OXR suddenly just jumped up to + 3.36% in the past 10 mins. Any Idea why? any big news in US?

Cant be as the Gold market has ended? any leads?

JT

the SP is underpinned by the suggestion that when the price weakens it is vulnerable to a takeover. This might be the explanation.

 

[laurie]

the SP is underpinned by the suggestion that when the price weakens it is vulnerable to a takeover. This might be the explanation.

Agree then I thought if that's the case what are they waiting for! so redandgreen what price has it to reach before they are safe from Xstrata $4/$5 :

cheers laurie

 

[bvbfan]

Only explanation for today was the news out of Canada that the suitor touted to be making a takeover had their bid rejected for Falconbridge, if they decide to give up then they will go for OXR.

However will Xstrata make another bid for Falconbridge?
Will they give up and sell their existing 25% stake they hold?

If they do, they will be cashed up so I would be more likely to believe an offer is being thought about at prices near the highs OXR reached.

I still want $5 if they are going to get my shares.