Oil price discussion and analysis

[CanOz]

I'd want to have a trailer on, there could be a mass of short covering above that level duc. It might get defended but if it pops look out. Very big psychological level.

 

[Quant]

I'd want to have a trailer on, there could be a mass of short covering above that level duc. It might get defended but if it pops look out. Very big psychological level.

Spot on , don't limit yourself with a " prediction " , take what the market " gives " . That's why I love my counts , its not predictive , IT IS reactive ... be dynamic for what is what markets are ... Well outside US indice . US indice are at multi decade lows of volatility , like watching paint dry . SPX not much better than 1% range in almost 3 weeks ..

 

[ducati916]

While both the above comments are, or can be true, this [for me] was always a target trade. Therefore I will stick to that target, if it is hit.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Still looking for that $50.......

jog on
duc

 

[CanOz]

Actually CL is what clued me onto the start of the bounce last night....around 21:30

 

[ducati916]

Actually CL is what clued me onto the start of the bounce last night....around 21:30

Correlations come and go. Oil [for a while] drove the market, then faded, now who knows. I don't really bother overmuch with 'leading' markets/indicators/etc. I either like the trade, or not. If I like it...I take it.

jog on
duc

 

[Quant]

Correlations come and go. Oil [for a while] drove the market, then faded, now who knows. I don't really bother overmuch with 'leading' markets/indicators/etc. I either like the trade, or not. If I like it...I take it.

jog on
duc

Yes I agree , trade each instruments on its merits , I use correlation coefficients to gauge and there isn't a lot of real rock solid correlations outside the obvious . Oil still holding daily bullcount so buy the dips is still the MO ..

 

[CanOz]

Yeah, I guess they work when they work. In this case it tipped me off so I got out of my cl short and stuck to my GC and bond shorts.

 

[ducati916]

Almost to my 'sell' point.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

And sold......

jog on
duc

 

[Quant]

Oil bid continues with daily count remaining bull, Opec meet days away , probably wise to book some profits into it if you've been long

 

[ducati916]

The short term trend [last 3 mths] remains downward sloping. The long trade [last 1 week'ish] was an "oversold" bounce trade, at least until the short term trend sloped upwards. Therefore, if long, discretion is the better part of valour and taking profits is the correct [technical] response to the current price.

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Oil bid continues with daily count remaining bull, Opec meet days away , probably wise to book some profits into it if you've been long



View attachment 71240

That looks like an EW 5 about to begin, bearish on oil.

gg

 

[Quant]

I see no reason to be short oil at this stage . The daily Bullcount is still alive , the old cliché , trend / friend / bend / end . Naturally opec meet is a key point in time but the only prediction i'm making is a lift in volatility . Direction is still clear as day atm

 

[minwa]

That looks like an EW 5 about to begin, bearish on oil.

gg

Nice one. This is what price action has over indicators that don't turn until after price has turned (strongly in this case).

 

[CanOz]

The volatility was certainly welcomed. Oil continued to slide but it's seems more of "sell the news" and " crowded trade" .... my bet is crude settles in a summer range now....bloody ranges.

 

[ducati916]

The trend, for the moment, is still downward, hence the requirement for alacrity if trading the long side. It is entirely possible that the trend down flattens, and thereby provides a trading channel.

I see no sign of the end of the trend as of today.

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Nice one. This is what price action has over indicators that don't turn until after price has turned (strongly in this case).

Sorry, I can't upload charts, but it has turned down and looks on EW to be headed for $40.

gg

 

[Quant]

I think the point here is my Lagging indicator is rarely wrong , it only lags 1 bar but will beat the **** out of any Subjective EW , Fib , astrology type voodoo .. reactive not predictive , clearly it doesn't take anything groundbreaking to acknowledge and declare an opec meet as a key event on an oil chart , no need to be a psychic .. If you make subjective things work for you great but it isn't part of my evidence based world , I can produce evidence ( I am not going to as that would involve revealing more about what I do than I am willing to ) , I can tell you my expectancy . I know the voodoo arts cant . Anecdotes are meaningless so please no 1 offs ... from one of my fave books
Evidence-Based Technical Analysis

 

[Triathlete]

Are you able to share with us your positive expectancy based on the amount of trades using your system.????