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Oil price discussion and analysis

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Triathlete said:
Are you able to share with us your positive expectancy based on the amount of trades using your system.????
Click to expand...
Well I have multiple systems that perform differently depending on the Beta of the instrument traded but I have baseline measurements for R ( 1:1 ) and % ( 65 ) so effectively the baseline for expectancy is 0.3 .. I don't think I curve fit and use price action patterns as a basis for all my code , the majority of my indicators are custom written by myself ( why I will not divulge or discuss ) and represent tangible price action events . Median reversion is the basis of my systems and I filter what I see as important aspects of price action . The counts used in charts here are only a part of the process but they do measure trend and reversals and are integral part of what I do on every time frame . I have built a long only algo I call the buffet beater based on counts that beats buffet returns over 40 years whilst in market 20% of the time whilst not suffering the debilitating drawdowns ( outside the 87 crash which is near impossible to avoid given basically an instant 50% crash from ATH ) . I was a decent discretionary trader for a long time but became aware of my weaknesses in regime changes , I sought to get a binary decision to identify regime changes and I saw the effectiveness of the yes/no signal that I then learnt to produce that type of binary signal to the entire trading process , an incredible eye opener . How better can it get to measure every aspect of your trading , the path this leads to is mindboggling . Has been a long and arduous path but I see a time ( not that distant ) where I trade markets without human intervention . The time frame involved in this path to custom code has taken 5 years , I am also taking the steps of applying these same principles to fundamentals of big cap stocks and automating that process . A virtual fund manager type of thing . Obviously this is only for some who are willing to push through the difficult learning curve required . Pros and passionate only need apply , its difficult to find others well down this same road , outside Canoz here I see few here travelling this path . Anyway that's the limit of words I'm willing to post here in 1 day ... rock on
 
Quant said:
Median reversion is the basis of my systems and I filter what I see as important aspects of price action . The counts used in charts here are only a part of the process but they do measure trend and reversals and are integral part of what I do on every time frame .

I was a decent discretionary trader for a long time but became aware of my weaknesses in regime changes , I sought to get a binary decision to identify regime changes

where I trade markets without human intervention . The time frame involved in this path to custom code has taken 5 years , I am also taking the steps of applying these same principles to fundamentals of big cap stocks and automating that process
Click to expand...

Quant, I personally don't have the dedication (or knowledge/ability) to follow through with your own adaptations/refinements on how to "attack" the market, but everything you state makes a lot of sense even for an "old school" guy like me. Whether electronically deduced or whether constructed from previous experience, I think successful trading has more to do with firstly realising one's (previous) failings (call that experience!!) followed by a simple plan of not making the same errors in the future! ...

My main fight and I would guess the fight of many "traders" would be to ... "NOT" do what I would have done in the past even though it seemed to make sense at the time! (I still make so many bad decisions it annoys the crap out of me ... but, those decisions are usually at a position size that means bugger all because I recognise the decision is "dodgy" .... even though I still take it:cautious::rolleyes:o_O

In trading you need to constantly take a backward step and question yourself as to why you are thinking of taking a position. Quite often, doing the exact opposite of what seems natural is what you should be doing ..... and then of course .... at times you should be doing exactly what seems the natural thing to do! Seeing the difference is probably where the "holy grail" lies lol .....

Friday night and rambling!! Apologies if slightly off topic:D

PS On topic ... I have a Short on Oil (tonight only) at $50.08 ...... ;) Will it get hit ... probably not .... If it does will I lose (much) ...probably not:D
 
barney said:
Quant, I personally don't have the dedication (or knowledge/ability) to follow through with your own adaptations/refinements on how to "attack" the market, but everything you state makes a lot of sense even for an "old school" guy like me. Whether electronically deduced or whether constructed from previous experience, I think successful trading has more to do with firstly realising one's (previous) failings (call that experience!!) followed by a simple plan of not making the same errors in the future! ...

My main fight and I would guess the fight of many "traders" would be to ... "NOT" do what I would have done in the past even though it seemed to make sense at the time! (I still make so many bad decisions it annoys the crap out of me ... but, those decisions are usually at a position size that means bugger all because I recognise the decision is "dodgy" .... even though I still take it:cautious::rolleyes:o_O

In trading you need to constantly take a backward step and question yourself as to why you are thinking of taking a position. Quite often, doing the exact opposite of what seems natural is what you should be doing ..... and then of course .... at times you should be doing exactly what seems the natural thing to do! Seeing the difference is probably where the "holy grail" lies lol .....

Friday night and rambling!! Apologies if slightly off topic:D

PS On topic ... I have a Short on Oil (tonight only) at $50.08 ...... ;) Will it get hit ... probably not .... If it does will I lose (much) ...probably not:D
Click to expand...

I like your style. Each trader comes from a different life experience. None are all knowing.

For what it's worth on the charts Olive Oyle is headed to sit on the knee of a guy called Forty before she jumps up again.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
For what it's worth on the charts Olive Oyle is headed to sit on the knee of a guy called Forty before she jumps up again.

gg
Click to expand...

Indeed you may well be correct Garpal:) ..... I was taunting the market to make one more little thrust before a short term bust so I could get in at a discount!:D
 
Quant said:
I think the point here is my Lagging indicator is rarely wrong , it only lags 1 bar but will beat the **** out of any Subjective EW , Fib , astrology type voodoo .. reactive not predictive
Click to expand...

From the little that you have disclosed:

(a) the programme is inductive;
(b) over 'x' timeframe [1 bar being mentioned]

Two points arise arise:

(a) an inductive programme relies on 'n' observations; and
(b) the confidence of 'n' observations advances as the square root of 'n' observations.

Now the 1 bar could be anything from a 1-tick bar, to a 1-year bar [or more]. The length of the bar is important in that:

(a) the shorter the time-frame of the bar, the more noise and less information is contained; and
(b) the longer the time-frame, the more lagging the signal; which
(c) still does not solve the issue of 'n' observations, speaking statistically, which is inductively.

jog on
duc
 
Quant said:
Well I have multiple systems that perform differently depending on the Beta of the instrument traded but I have baseline measurements for R ( 1:1 ) and % ( 65 ) so effectively the baseline for expectancy is 0.3 .. I don't think I curve fit and use price action patterns as a basis for all my code , the majority of my indicators are custom written by myself ( why I will not divulge or discuss ) and represent tangible price action events . Median reversion is the basis of my systems and I filter what I see as important aspects of price action . The counts used in charts here are only a part of the process but they do measure trend and reversals and are integral part of what I do on every time frame . I have built a long only algo I call the buffet beater based on counts that beats buffet returns over 40 years whilst in market 20% of the time whilst not suffering the debilitating drawdowns ( outside the 87 crash which is near impossible to avoid given basically an instant 50% crash from ATH ) . I was a decent discretionary trader for a long time but became aware of my weaknesses in regime changes , I sought to get a binary decision to identify regime changes and I saw the effectiveness of the yes/no signal that I then learnt to produce that type of binary signal to the entire trading process , an incredible eye opener . How better can it get to measure every aspect of your trading , the path this leads to is mindboggling . Has been a long and arduous path but I see a time ( not that distant ) where I trade markets without human intervention . The time frame involved in this path to custom code has taken 5 years , I am also taking the steps of applying these same principles to fundamentals of big cap stocks and automating that process . A virtual fund manager type of thing . Obviously this is only for some who are willing to push through the difficult learning curve required . Pros and passionate only need apply , its difficult to find others well down this same road , outside Canoz here I see few here travelling this path . Anyway that's the limit of words I'm willing to post here in 1 day ... rock on
Click to expand...

Thanks for your previous reply Quant....
Can you expand a little in regards to:
Once a signal is given to buy what is the average length of holding time based on your
results / testing of your system currently.??
 
Oil still nice clean daily trends , the flip to bearish was a massive range on opec meet but settled in a couple days ScreenShot3171.jpg
 
Keeping an eye on the volatility and volume of CL during the Shanghai hours, yesterday was a good start. Almost identical 5 minute ATR as the US session for the first few hours. Decent Volume too. Looks like the someone has their Arb bots going already.

CL 05-18 (5 Minute) 2018_03_27.png
 
I started charting the POO back in 2013 and called a huge fall after working out a swing chart calculation. The very long term as in years and years is minus US$10. This makes me think anyone holding large reserves in their back paddock is likely to have to pay around US$10 to be rid of the stuff. Now back to reality. My first chart back in May 2013 saw the POO at $95.17 it ultimately fell to $26.14 in February 2016 which was a near as dammit double bottom from December 2008 of $30.81.

Now I am putting up the same daily twelve year long term view of POO which is about to hit the long term overhead falling resistance line from 2008. The shorter term view which started at the time of the February 2016 double bottom is travelling within and almost at the top of a bearish Rising Wedge.
I believe in the very short term, days perhaps, the POO will start to fall and eventually hit the long term support line of $20 or just above. This will then be a triple bottom and should see a final dead cat bounce up to the falling resistance line.
I say all this because of what I see on the chart not through any other means, information or advice.

POO2018.png
 

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