Oil price discussion and analysis

[notting]

Oil puts in it's worst overnight action for over 6 months and our oiler's, most of whom can't and arn't making any money in this environment, just meander around like it 's walk in the park

 

[notting]

Oil puts in it's worst overnight action for over 6 months and our oiler's, most of whom can't and arn't making any money in this environment, just meander around like it 's walk in the park

Guess someone was front running the US jobs report.
Which, bye the way is backward looking.
China has finished buying global oil to max out it's reserves and oil broke 45 and support for the first time since May.
Short

 

[CanOz]

Guess someone was front running the US jobs report.
Which, bye the way is backward looking.
China has finished buying global oil to max out it's reserves and oil broke 45 and support for the first time since May.
Short

Oil was steaming along well until Brexit...i think that was the high. Makes you wonder if what oil is saying about global growth is true or not, doesn't look good though for oil. Maybe even retest the lows again now?

 

[notting]

Oil was steaming along well until Brexit...i think that was the high. Makes you wonder if what oil is saying about global growth is true or not, doesn't look good though for oil. Maybe even retest the lows again now?

Not sure about the lows but it's certainly hard to see it getting through any resistance.
Rigs were increasing in US and Arabs would not have liked to see that!
PS I meant to add the jobs report data is largely pre BREXIT too.

 

[CanOz]

I've never seen a bid like this in CL before....wtf? Contract roll?

 

[daytradeprofit]

I want to be noticed in trading volume and price behavior on two specific dates
11/05/2016 and 06/09/2016
Any upward movement of oil trading volume - either higher or lower if Underlined the amount of volume testing performed during the period.
Only twice found abnormal amount of transactions - Attention candles:
05/11/2016 candle marks on buying (Acquisition of goods),While 09/06/2016 candle show sales sign (Release of goods),If this is the case so expect to see crude oil move down
And oil is on its way to 34*36+

 

[CanOz]

I've never seen a bid like this in CL before....wtf? Contract roll?

Ho hum, back to my question....wtf is with that huge bid?

 

[peter2]

You're probably right regarding roll-over as this contract is near expiry/first notice day.

 

[Ann]

Time for a chart update, now everyone knows oil is a goner but back in March 2013 it was still anyone's guess....I put up a chart and said down because it was clear it was not going to be a viable long term resource. Also the Peak Oil Pundits were setting off my bullpoo meter and annoying me!

Here is a link to the old chart I put up back in 2013 https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=797&p=771940&viewfull=1#post771940

This is a very long term weekly chart coming from 2006 and shows the same sort of swing trade figures I drew in the first chart. I guess oil is still going to be of no value....

.....Maybe these two charts are saying it will cost $10 a barrel and not $20 a barrel to get rid of the stuff! :

 

[notting]

What a load of absolute BS.
How many times do you have to cry wolf before the community realizes there is no wolf?
It's a death ship.

Look at all the sideways glances.



They have no ability to make deals any more.
Oil is having a day in the sun because traders are trading this short term.
Longer term it's a funeral march.
They have always been so slimy and due to the massive investment in it all over the world it will be hard to pick a top.
The only way they will really get the price down is if they go to war with each other.
They could play that card for year or two, pretend to be about to go to war.
They con and bribe and fudge and lie till Telsa is 1000 per share.

 

[BarneyChambers]

What is everyone's opinion on the change in oil price after the US election? I feel like it's going to spike if/when Hilary wins the election in November.

 

[Ann]

What is everyone's opinion on the change in oil price after the US election? I feel like it's going to spike if/when Hilary wins the election in November.

G'day Barney, I really have no thought on the POO's direction using fundamental guesswork however I work with charts and see potential for price direction. The price has hit the same upper level three times, this is very weakening for any stock or commodity and can cause a price to retrace. There is also a rising trendline support and if this is broken on the retrace there may be a solid downward fall.

As much as I do not use fundamentals to guess at prices I have noticed the phrase 'Peak Oil Demand' being bandied around this is not conducive to higher prices unlike the old 'Peak Oil' scare campaign. Plus you have Iran back into the game and Iraq refusing to scale back production, plus I believe the $US is going to be flying high.

Anyway here is the chart....

 

[CanOz]

CL is arguably in a spike and channel now, if we can reject the current level then we should trade lower to 48.35.

Expect short covering above 49.57

 

[CanOz]

CL setting up for a possible throw back after a range balance breakout, levels to watch posted in the ASF playbook. Important to remember that these throw backs can fail spectacularly and i wouldn't recommend taking a blind trade on the throw back without watching the order flow.

 

[CanOz]

Throw back or bull trap....watch the order flow....

 

[Quant]

Surprised this thread is not active , with the multi year lows in many international indice ( US in particular ) Oil has been a go to instrument to get a range to exploit . Now oil also is at multi year lows volatility wise but this is a positive in my eyes , the manic chaotic oil price action is now something much more structured and controlled making it a little easier to find an edge . We have seen a lot more mean reversion recently which is exactly what i desire as a daytrader . Using some simple measurements i think oil has been one of the best traders on my watchlist

top indi atr
next is median measure
next is short term trend/ trade signal generator
couple other things i use left of to keep it simple to follow

 

[Quant]

View attachment 70189 Surprised this thread is not active , with the multi year lows in many international indice ( US in particular )

that should read " multi year volatility lows " . sorry

 

[Quant]

The curve on forwards has a nice hump in it now after being full contango a couple months back . Opec pumps worn of and the future not quite as rosy now

 

[Quant]

What a move on CL last night and i was lucky enough to catch a slice of that . The series of LH and LL with the bear flag break saw the downside was open but never in a million years did i expect a waterfall like that , have to get lucky sometimes

 

[Quant]

Interesting net speculative longs recently at highs , last night's data initiated the squeeze , the probability of this having legs to downside remains high as many bulls now underwater with much of the growth in net bulls at prices higher than today