There are many who have looked at the OPEC reserve claims over the years and are extremely suspicious as to accuracy.
In short, many of them report exactly the same reserve figures for many consecutive years and then have a sudden rise, which then remains constant again for many years to come.
The basic conclusion drawn is that they may be reporting "total oil discovered to date" rather than what actually remains. If that's the case then the world's known oil reserves are substantially lower than the official claims.
Due to the workings of the OPEC quota system, member countries gain economically simply by reporting larger reserves. So there's a definite incentive to come up with the highest number possible.
There's also political influence. Eg if the Saudi's dropped their reserve numbers by 90% then all of a sudden they'd be a lot less influential in global politics. Same with the others so there's another incentive to come up with high numbers.
That OPEC wasn't able to significantly raise production even when prices stayed over $100 for a considerable period adds to the suspicion. They've supposedly got vast reserves, but chose not to develop them and only offered a bit of very poor quality oil to the market. Hmm...
Trying hard to see if I'm making a case seeing how I'm eyeball deep in oil but na, I seriously think all these oversupply is a bluff.
Yup, the numbers are all suspect; the real figures are definitely State Secret stuff.
And here's the conspiracy thing:
For all the talk of ramping up production to flood the market, all they have managed to do is increase production by some 1.5M barrel a day above demand, or a mere 1.6%.
I mean we're not expecting God's wrath that left Noah and family alive, but come on, 1.6%?
Such small figure meant two things: One is it does not take much to oversupply (bad for oil price if they pump a bit more); but two, the best they could do is this 2% increase and it's stretching their infrastructure and reserves and economy to do it.
If we take geo-politics into account... why are the sanctions against Iran lifted? So the West can access Iranian oil that's what.
To get friendly with Iran now really upsets Saudi Arabia and Israel. But the US still does it. Why?
Since they can't invade it for oil as they have; since China is cuddling Iran (and setting up airbases and soon oil platforms all over a couple of seas)... If the US and the West are not friendly, others will take Iranian oil in their place.
Why Iranian oil, why now?
Their oil are not the sweet stuff. Poorer quality. That was why the US permitted the UK to stay around a while in Iran after WW2. That is why American oil companies do not want to touch Iranian oil when they can have Saudis and other Gulf states oil back when Eisenhower first decided to liberate it from a parliamentary system towards the glorious Shah and his Persian Imperial system.. .and force the oil companies to get back in their and pump some oil!
Iranian oil was so undesirable that after the Mullah take over, there was no need for US to liberate its people again.
Until now... Why? Running out of oil.
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So why does the US allow its oilers to export? Why does it tell Saudi Arabia to pump it up? First, to hurt Russia and Venezuela; Second is to make it look convincing.
Why does the big oil corporations not call up their friends in high places to put an end their pain?
Because it will allow them to buy the little fishes with big untapped reserves on the cheap; to write down their assets and claim losses and pay no income tax.
Those who don't or won't sell completely will be glad to sign futures delivery on the cheap; glad to get a partner with bigger balance sheet.
And of course to kick Iron Man and his electric car and solar panels and storage batteries back down a few notch. Keep investors away from alternative sources; keep delaying R&D into new sources and new infrastructures etc.
... and that, my friend, is how you weave a bedtime story to your liking from a few numbers
More seriously, oil is a finite resource. Kingdoms and national security are literally dependent on it for revenue. To pump it up for cheap now but not expect to manipulate the market later for greater gain is just beyond reason.