Oil price discussion and analysis

[qldfrog]

But as for electric cars etc, well bulk electricity is already below 5 cents / kWh, it's 3 - 4 cents right now at the time of posting depending on which state you're in, so being able to produce it at that price from solar doesn't really change anything there so far as economics are concerned. It remains an issue of battery costs and technology etc and charging infrastructure.

bulk is below 5c but no household got power at anywhere near that price, if solar panels go down in $, then the households can benefit and not only the AGL/smelters of the world;
as a result you can get panels to charge your car and/or battery and that changes the deal
in any case existing assets value will collapse; as a qld I believe it would have been very good for that reason to get rid of the power generators by selling them for big $...
was making economic sense

 

[Smurf1976]

bulk is below 5c but no household got power at anywhere near that price, if solar panels go down in $, then the households can benefit and not only the AGL/smelters of the world

Agreed although the cost of the grid remains so long as it physically exists. One way or another, consumers will end up being charged for it.

We did try a high fixed supply charge and selling the actual electricity at bulk prices in Tas 20 years ago. Single most unpopular thing the industry has ever tried, it prompted quite a lot of outrage, so there's a lot of reluctance in the industry (nationally) to try it again although I think it will happen at some point. Worth noting in that context that practically every internet and mobile phone service provider in the country has done exactly that and so far they've managed to get away with it.

 

[qldfrog]

Agreed although the cost of the grid remains so long as it physically exists. One way or another, consumers will end up being charged for it.

We did try a high fixed supply charge and selling the actual electricity at bulk prices in Tas 20 years ago. Single most unpopular thing the industry has ever tried, it prompted quite a lot of outrage, so there's a lot of reluctance in the industry (nationally) to try it again although I think it will happen at some point. Worth noting in that context that practically every internet and mobile phone service provider in the country has done exactly that and so far they've managed to get away with it.

on first point, people will go off the grid.
And be charged for the fact that they may have accees to it if they want:
water situation here in qld
on second point, the difference is people data use is always increasing so they see it as a good deal and do not bother paying a fee then unlimited call/data.The figures are not exactly in the same range either.
Going back to oil, went up again last night

 

[Wysiwyg]

Oil has a history of not making U shaped recoveries after big falls. Tends to like Vs.
Big Oil unions striking in USA, may be the trigger this time.

No V on a daily this time. Maybe OPEC will consider an output cut this time. Not even the Crimean "annexation" or the ongoing Iraq & Syria conflicts has effected the price tumble. China's growth rate being checked, still.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Price broke January low briefly about 10 minutes ago. Short personally hoping for a decent descent.

 

[notting]

Beep beep beep beep dum dum dum dum bum ba bam pa - that's an intro to a news announcement attempting to reflect a tune in words.

Breaking News -

Today a new commodity was floated around the world with a great stag result.

It's called the 'headline.'

Today a coalition of forces took action in Yemen, with a difference.

Prior to the action it was decided that the headline would be 'Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies start military action with air strikes in Yemen.'

Rather than use the usual USA and it's allies it was worked out by some clever geeks that if the words Saudi Arabia and Arab allies was used it would make the algo's go berserk and put a rocket under the oil prices.
Saudi Arabia was very happy with day ones stunning result as was the FED allowing it to maintain an easy stance with the oil doing a little tightening for it.

And yes the Saudi's did fly a Cessna over Yemen and dropped a fire cracker, whilst allied forces peppered Yemen with ballistic missiles and oil went up 5% due to the headline.

Job well done boys!

 

[robert1982]

Oil Prices are Going Down

As we have seen recently, there is a general trend that presents a constant fall in oil prices. The reasons for that are twofold:
1) A genuine decrease in world demand for crude oil which might indicate the possibility of a recession.
2) An American pressure on OPEC countries not to cut supplies to keep prices low in order to exert economic pressure on Russia as a result of its aggressive policy in the Ukraine crisis.
Nevertheless, the trend is not definite. There are some fluctuations in oil prices as the commodity is going up and down. Last week (March 22-27, 2015), there was a rise in prices until Friday on which the commodity's bullishness reached an abrupt end with significant loses. What happened last week was a direct result of the market's balancing mechanism. On Friday, investors felt that crude oil was overvalued and so it was time to ditch it.
It will be interesting to keep record of the commodity's performances in the coming week.

Source: FMTrader's financial reviews

 

[robert1982]

Big drop in crude prices during Tuesday's trading session

There was a big drop in crude prices during Tuesday's trading session. Investors decided it was a

good idea for them to go short on the news that Iraq's exports rebounded and the Saudis are now

pumping at near record rates. This allowed oil prices to go lower and lower from the $50.00 mark.

US stocks ended up making some notable losses during Tuesday's trading session. When looking to

Europe there were also some big losses. The thing is that stocks in Europe posted a very impressive

quarter. What was very important was the German DAX Index posting its best quarter since its 1988

inception. The Japanese Nikkei Index posted quarterly gains, but dropped yesterday as traders

decided that it was better for them to take out their profits of the index.

Source: FMTrader's financial reviews

 

[waterbottle]

Re: Big drop in crude prices during Tuesday's trading session

US and Iran on the road to achieve a deal on nuclear development.
Promises of lifting economic sanctions for the Iranians!!!

According to this wikipedia article, Iran is capable of adding 3% to the world's total crude oil production. This is on a background of increased supply from OPEC.

Maybe this will be the final leg down for oil?

 

[CanOz]

Starting to look like the bottom's already in...We could have years in a range though.

 

[wayneL]

Unleaded Gasoline though.

And an AD in a swan dive is why we're still paying $1.40 at the pump.

 

[luutzu]

Re: Big drop in crude prices during Tuesday's trading session

US and Iran on the road to achieve a deal on nuclear development.
Promises of lifting economic sanctions for the Iranians!!!

According to this wikipedia article, Iran is capable of adding 3% to the world's total crude oil production. This is on a background of increased supply from OPEC.

Maybe this will be the final leg down for oil?

I heard it's going to take at least two years for Iran to get its production and logistics up and ready. By then, the current glut will have crippled Russia (and Venezuela) enough, and also put a few potential competitors through the ground. Nobody wants to sell their goods cheap when they no longer have to.

 

[StockTrader010]

Increase in oil reserves is hurting oil today, -$3 CME Crude :frown:.

 

[CanOz]

On the monthly you can see that the next solid support is 40 ish. That would have a dramatic effect on communities from North Dakota to Northern Alberta, countries from Norway to Nigeria. Traders will be flocking to the intraday volatility in the oil and gas markets with new shorts being cleaned out from time to time. Transport stocks will move, air tickets will be cheaper again, palm oil prices will plunge, consumers will have new spending power, the industrial stocks will rally with less energy costs, currencies of oil producing nations will plummet.

this is big...

If you're an intraday trader, you need to be watching these markets and these currencies in the next few days/weeks.

I guess it was big indeed....

 

[waterbottle]

I guess it was big indeed....

 

[StockTrader010]

Oil is recovering nicely the last couple of weeks. But I don't think it will last. Especially if the pending agreement with Iran allows them to export oil again

 

[tanti]

Everyday I wake up to check Crude and cry my face off..

My guess is a sideways trend at least until Dec.. Supports have already been blown out for this month..

 

[Wysiwyg]

WTI Crude up US $10 from last weeks ultimate low. Missed the botty again.

 

[tanti]

WTI Crude up US $10 from last weeks ultimate low. Missed the botty again.

Who are you long on?

 

[Wysiwyg]

Who are you long on?

I am not long on WTI at present. I do like having a stab at pivot lows though. The ultimate low is very difficult to pick. Gotta go in and wait see.